Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Across rich countries, longer lifespans and falling birth rates mean fewer working-age people supporting those too young, old, or sick to work, straining the tax levels and public services electorates expect. Immigration faces fierce political opposition, risking a loop in which restrictions worsen fiscal pressures and services, deepening opposition further.

Stephen Bush and John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Efforts by advanced economies to offset demographic decline via immigration have been met with widespread public opposition. Slower growth associated with lower immigration likely means “ever greater demands on the purse of the native-born population.”

Can rich countries sustain public services and taxes without immigration?

Core argument: Across the rich world, longer lifespans and falling birth rates are pushing care-dependency ratios—the number of workers supporting the young, old and sick—below the level needed to sustain the public services and tax levels electorates expect.

Across the rich world, almost every state faces a version of the same problem: their people are living longer and having fewer children. Every year, tens of thousands of citizens will hit state pension age or retire, and fewer of us are having enough children to maintain our care-dependency ratio (the number of working people supporting those who are too young, too old or too sick to work themselves) at a point that provides the standard of public services and the levels of tax that modern electorates have grown accustomed to. But politicians have a problem: immigration is the subject of fierce political opposition. Democracies risk falling into a doom loop, in which restrictions on immigration mean ever greater demands on the purse of the native-born population and ever worse services, which in turn deepens opposition towards immigration and therefore creates yet greater pressures, and so on.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Across the rich world, longer lifespans and falling birth rates are pushing care-dependency ratios—the number of workers supporting the young, old and sick—below the level needed to sustain the public services and tax levels electorates expect.
  2. Tens of thousands of citizens in rich countries reach state pension age or retire each year, while birth rates remain too low to sustain the working population supporting them.
  3. Democracies risk a doom loop in which immigration restrictions raise the fiscal burden on the native-born population and worsen public services, which deepens opposition to immigration and intensifies the pressures further.

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  • Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory — Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.
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Showing 69 database articles primarily about Immigration