Catastrophes and calms
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Economic evolution mirrors biological patterns, characterized by long periods of stability interrupted by sudden disruptions. Historically, GDP growth rates have shown extended phases of stasis, with average annual growth hovering around 2-3% in developed economies.
Renee Duckworth, "Catastrophes and calms,"Psyche, August 2020, https://aeon.co/essays/catastrophe-drives-evolution-but-life-resides-in-the-pauses










Ed Comment:I’m always surprised that scientists don’t study the evolution of society, institutions, the economy and knowledge technology/innovation even the evolution of chess for example. These things seem to evolve from the same process, random mutation (nobody know what will work) and survival of the fittest with drift and the need for substantial slack vs fierce unrelenting competitions that eats everything alive. They can study the patterns up close without needing to find rare fossils spread out over eons of time. It’s exact same process. J-curve for example punctate the discovery of knowledge. I think it’s because they mistakenly assume that humans have free will and that nature evolves differently. I don’t believe man has free will. We are just sophisticated value maximizing algorithms that can “see” the same thing nature can see. what we see, vaguely, is the underlying structure of value. that structures may makes our evolution and blind nature’s less than just random.
Interesting essay on evolutionary stasis, why species don’t change, and when they do how/why it happens so fast evolution emerges when a stable state is disrupted
"... Yet in the 1970s, the American palaeontologists Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge proposed that the pattern of stasis and disruption might be something more than just imperfections in the fossil record. This punctuated equilibrium, as they called it, might reflect the uneven way that evolution actually unfolds. If Gould and Eldridge were right, then natural selection on random mutation suddenly had a much shorter timescale in which to accomplish major evolutionary changes..... been a growing acceptance of this pattern among evolutionary biologists and theorists over the years, as new studies and techniques reveal it again and again across diverse organisms. For example, Stevan J Arnold, an evolutionary biologist at Oregon State University, and his colleagues looked at patterns of body size evolution in vertebrates using three different types of data that span vastly different timescales: long-term field and museum studies that compare changes over tens to thousands of years, fossil measurements that assess changes over 100,000 to around a million years, and comparative data that can detect divergence among species (estimated using genetic data) over a period of tens of millions of years. They found that bursts of body-size evolution occur only on the order of every million years or so.... There’s a remarkable similarity between patterns of dynamic stability observed in evolution on the one hand, and diverse human-engineered and natural systems on the other. This suggests that there might be universal principles for how stability is maintained - even at the level of entire species. If so, taking a systems approach to evolutionary dynamics could drastically alter how we view evolution as a process. First and foremost, it makes it clear that explaining how species stay the same is just as important as explaining how they change.It also suggests that the mechanisms underlying both might be inextricably linked…. Most importantly, viewing evolution through a systems lens fundamentally changes how we view the story of life on Earth. It’s not a story of the constant struggle for existence. Rather, it’s a story that resides in the pauses - the uneventful interludes, where components of the systems maintain the status quo, and change necessarily comes with painful and extreme disruption….”