The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) forecasts that exempting employment-based green cards from statutory limits for applicants (and their families) who have earned a doctoral or master’s degree in a STEM field—similar to Section 80303 in H.R. 4521—would reduce federal budget deficits by $129 billion from 2025 to 2034. In contrast, a conventional budget estimate, which would include projected increases in federal spending but not the effect of a larger population on federal tax revenues, shows an increase in federal deficits of $4 billion. Over the following decade, the difference between estimates under the conventional approach and the population-change approach is even larger, from a $74 billion increase in the budget deficit under the conventional approach to a $634 billion decrease under the population-change approach.
Related: Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy and Top Talent, Elite Colleges, and Migration: Evidence from the Indian Institutes of Technology and New U.S. Immigration Rules Spur More Visa Approvals For STEM Workers