Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The foreign-born share of the population has risen sharply since 1990 in nearly every large Western country. As mainstream politicians from the center-right to the left dismissed voters' concerns about immigration, many voters drifted toward extreme-right parties that promised to reduce it.

David Leonhardt New York Times
Date Posted:

.@DLeonhardt suggests the rapid rise of the foreign-born share of national populations since 1990 is driving the recent electoral success of the 2016 Brexit campaign, Trump, and EU parliamentary results for Le Pen in France and the AfD in Germany.

Is rising immigration pushing Western voters toward extreme-right parties?

Core argument: The foreign-born share of the population has risen sharply since 1990 in nearly every large Western country, and it is not clear whether immigration has ever previously risen so quickly in so many countries at once.

The first thing to understand is how unusual the modern migration boom has been. In nearly every large Western country, the foreign-born share of the population has risen sharply since 1990. It’s not clear whether immigration has ever previously risen so quickly in so many different countries. If anything, the chart understates the trend because it ends in 2020, the last year with available data. For years, mainstream Western politicians, from the center-right to the center-left to the left, have dismissed voters’ concerns about immigration. Many voters responded by drifting to the only parties that promised to reduce immigration — parties on the extreme right.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The foreign-born share of the population has risen sharply since 1990 in nearly every large Western country, and it is not clear whether immigration has ever previously risen so quickly in so many countries at once.
  2. Data on the Western migration boom end in 2020, the last year with available figures, so the chart may understate the trend.
  3. Mainstream Western politicians from the center-right through the left dismissed voters' concerns about immigration for years, and many voters drifted to extreme-right parties, the only ones promising to reduce it.

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  • Europe Hopes Barbed Wire Will Keep Migrants Out. It Won’t — The total length of border fences in the European Union grew from 315km to 2,163km over roughly a decade, yet unauthorised crossings made up just 0.13% of all external crossings into the EU. Most migrants arrive via the Mediterranean rather than the Balkans or the eastern land border.
  • Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink — All net US employment growth since early 2020 has been among foreign-born workers, and without immigration the US working-age population would be shrinking — a pattern likely to persist for the rest of the decade. The jump in immigration appears to be enabling a soft landing that most economists had thought impossible.
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