Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. A model estimates that the short-run neutral real interest rate — the rate consistent with the economy operating at potential — has increased notably, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate. The model attributes this change mainly to financial shocks, reflecting financial conditions such as corporate spreads remaining resilient despite the higher policy rate.

Katie Baker, Logan Casey, Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich and Ramya Nallamotu Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Date Posted:

Despite the Fed funds rate rising by 500bps in just over a year, the tightening may have been offset by an increase in the natural rate helping to limit the impact of tightening. @NYFedResearch

Has the short-run neutral real interest rate risen faster than policy rates?

Core argument: The model estimates that short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate.

From the model’s perspective, short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate. The chart decomposes the change in real r* (black line) and its forecast (red line) between June 2022 and March 2023. Note that these are changes in the real variable. The chart shows that “financial’’ shocks (yellow) are the key driver of this change. These shocks capture the fact that financial conditions, as measured for instance by corporate spreads, have remained very resilient in spite of the increase in the policy rate (and of the recent banking turmoil).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The model estimates that short-run r* has increased notably over the past year, to some extent outpacing the large increase in the policy rate.
  2. A decomposition of the change in real short-run r* and its forecast between June 2022 and March 2023 identifies "financial" shocks as the key driver.
  3. The financial shocks capture that financial conditions, measured for instance by corporate spreads, have remained resilient despite the increase in the policy rate and the recent banking turmoil.

Related Articles:

  • What Have We Learned About the Neutral Rate? — Analysts estimate that if inflation is brought down without a recession, the Federal Reserve's policy rate will stabilize nearer 3–3.25% than the 2.5% longer-run median projection of Federal Reserve officials. Projected shifts in government debt and demographics imply a roughly 0.5 percentage point net increase in the neutral rate over the next decade.
  • Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest After COVID-19 — Model estimates for the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area place the natural rate of interest within a few tenths of a percentage point of pre-pandemic estimates, with the main longer-term consequence of the pandemic a reduction in the natural rate of output. The authors find no evidence that the era of historically low natural rates has ended.
  • The Case for “Higher for Longer”: Prices are Disinflating, But Not Wages (Yet) — Occupations with the fastest pay gains have seen wage growth normalize while pay growth elsewhere remains persistently faster, with only modest deceleration from the peak. The author argues the neutral policy rate has risen as an investment drought ends, making 5.5% short-term rates unremarkable and 4% 10-year Treasury yields potentially too low.
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