Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. A roughly $100bn Anthropic equity offering, about 5% of its implied value, would consume a meaningful share of institutions' finite new-issue budgets and investor attention, making it plausible that other issuers are delaying their own deals. Oura postponed its offering despite reporting strong demand.

Paul Kedrosky Applied Complexity
Date Posted:

Anthropic is reportedly preparing to sell $100B of stock at an ~$2T valuation. Noting postponed IPOs at Oura and OpenAI, Kedrosky argues Anthropic’s IPO may be crowding out other new issuers.

Are other issuers delaying offerings because one giant deal crowds them out?

Core argument: Anthropic’s $100 billion offering represents roughly 5% of its implied value, and would consume a meaningful amount of large institutions’ finite new-issue budgets for growth capital.

An unprecedented amount of equity supply is coming to market, much of it in one transaction, and it is increasingly plausible that other issuers are simply getting out of the way. Large institutions have finite new-issue budgets, and a $100 billion Anthropic offering would consume a meaningful amount of available growth capital. It would also dominate investor attention and create funding pressure: investors wanting Anthropic may sell or avoid smaller new issues around the same time. This may explain Oura. It reported that demand for its offering was strong, and yet it postponed it. A well-subscribed IPO being postponed suggests something beyond ordinary weak demand.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Anthropic’s $100 billion offering represents roughly 5% of its implied value, and would consume a meaningful amount of large institutions’ finite new-issue budgets for growth capital.
  2. Investors seeking Anthropic allocations may sell or avoid smaller new issues around the same time, creating funding pressure that could explain why other issuers are getting out of the way.
  3. Oura postponed its offering despite reporting strong demand, which suggests something beyond ordinary weak demand.

Related Articles:

  • SpaceX and OpenAI Are Ending Wall Street’s Era of Stock Scarcity — JPMorgan projects that share sales will add roughly $1.5tn of stock to the US equity market over the next two years even after buybacks, which would be the strongest net equity issuance since at least the late 1990s. Equity has grown cheaper relative to debt as a funding source.
  • A Catalyst For The AI Bubble Break — Historically, controlling for valuations, a 1% rise in the share of the market represented by initial public offerings has been associated with roughly a 4% decline in prices. With large artificial-intelligence company listings expected and share issuance exceeding buybacks, equity supply could shift from shrinking about 1% a year to growing near 5%, implying returns roughly 20% below average.
  • The Coming Mega-IPO Flow & Funding Problem of 2026 — Adjusted for inflation, SpaceX alone would rank as the second-largest initial public offering ever, behind Saudi Aramco, and three such listings together would exceed the entire 1995–2000 dot-com wave. Funding that equity supply requires selling existing holdings, and index rule changes make passive funds forced buyers, pressuring large-cap technology stocks.
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