“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
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“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
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Deficits are Raising Interest Rates. But Other Factors are Lowering Them

Ernie Tedeschi Medium

Date Posted:: February 19, 2019
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Deficits raise 10-year Treasury yield by 18bps & ACM by 20bps, but aging demographics & high foreign demand for US Treasuries have offset this effect since 2001.

Despite a 1% increase in federal deficits raising the 10-year Treasury yield by 18bps and the ACM [Adrian, Crump, and Moench] 10-year term premium by 20bps, other factors have mitigated this effect. Since 2001, long-term nominal interest rates in the US have declined even as deficits and debt have grown, challenging pre-crisis economic assumptions. Factors such as aging demographics, slower productivity growth, and high foreign demand for US Treasuries have exerted downward pressure on yields, offsetting the upward fiscal impact. These dynamics suggest that while structural deficits do increase interest rates, the influence of foreign demand and demographic trends has been more significant over the past two decades. Policymakers may leverage this interest rate environment to finance policies addressing secular stagnation, though they must consider the long-term implications of deficit-financing on investment, productivity, wages, and consumption.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

A 1-percentage-point increase in federal deficits raises the 10-year Treasury yield by 18 basis points and the ACM 10-year term premium by 20 basis points, though other forces have offset this fiscal effect.
Long-term US nominal interest rates have declined since 2001 even as deficits and debt grew, challenging pre-crisis economic assumptions.
Aging demographics, slower productivity growth, and high foreign demand for US Treasuries have exerted downward pressure on yields, an influence that appears to have outweighed the upward pressure from structural deficits over the past two decades.

"... Long-term nominal interest rates in the US have fallen since 2001 even as federal deficits and debt have risen, in particular since the Great Recession. This has led some to question the pre-crisis conventional economic wisdom about a link between deficits and interest rates. In this blog post, I update the empirical analysis of Warnock & Warnock (2009) to show that deficits and debt, both actual and expected, still have positive and statistically-significant impacts on interest rates at the margin. A one percentage point increase in the ongoing cyclically-adjusted federal deficit raises the 10-year Treasury yield by 18 basis points, and the ACM 10-year term premium by 20 basis points. Yet other factors with downward effects on yields such as growth and productivity, monetary policy, demography, and foreign demand for US Treasuries have ultimately dominated this upward fiscal effect since 2001.....In simple terms of simple rule-of-thumb tradeoffs, the evidence suggests pre-crisis consensus was largely correct: an increase in structural budget deficits puts upward pressure on interest rates, all else equal.....However, all else may not always be equal, particularly in periods where there is high foreign demand for US debt and/or high demand for safe assets in general. Over the last 20 years, this has helped blunt the effects of deficits on interest rates. By the same token, if foreign / safe asset demand dynamics subsided in the future, then structural deficits could shift to having a larger net upward effect than they have in recent years.....These deficit effects appear to have fallen substantially over the last two decades, but are still positive and statistically significant..... The upward interest rate effect from structural deficits and the countervailing downward effect from foreign purchases both appear to flow materially through term/risk premia at least as measured by the ACM model, though given that the ACM model is not the final word on term structure decompositions this is not dispositive. Still, this finding makes it more likely that the interest rate impacts of higher deficits reflect more than just policy choices by the Federal Reserve......Other structural and cyclical factors can depress interest rates as well. In the US context, these factors have more than offset the influence of higher deficits over the last 20 years. Some examples include the aging of the population and slower productivity growth.....Policymakers may exploit the interest rate room carved out by these countervailing factors by running higher deficits, particularly as a means of financing policies designed to combat such factors as e.g. secular stagnation......Because these structural factors are unlikely to reverse themselves suddenly, and because US interest rates are already relatively low given the state of the business cycle, deficits and debt should not be a near-term worry, nor should they impede counter-cyclical policy when the economy is far from full capacity..... However, deficit-financing still poses a tradeoff in the form of upward interest rate pressure. This has implications for investment, productivity, wages, and consumption in the long-term that policymakers ought to weigh against the specifics of the policy being financed.... These are distinct questions from many other recent fiscal policy debates; for example, whether there are states of the economy, such as when r < g (interest rates are lower than the rate of economic growth), when debt-financing certain policies is more likely to be welfare-enhancing. Note though that my analysis implies that deficits and debt can be endogenous to the determination of r over the medium- to long-run. In other words, the more that policymakers exploit an r < g state and deficit-finance changes in fiscal policy, the less likely it will be that the r < g state persists over the medium- to long-term...."

Ernie Tedeschi, Deficits are Raising Interest Rates. But Other Factors are Lowering Them.,"Medium, February 19, 2019, https://medium.com/@ernietedeschi/deficits-are-raising-interest-rates-but-other-factors-are-lowering-them-6d1e68776b7a

Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Alternative Scenarios for Interest Rates and the Budget

CBO Staff Congressional Budget OffIce

Date Posted:: September 29, 2026
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If interest rates rise 1pp above CBO’s current extended baseline (a mean rate of 4% over 2026–2056), CBO projects federal debt held by the public will be 222% of GDP in 2056, versus 175% under the current baseline.

Under a scenario in which interest rates increased until they were 1 percentage point higher than in CBO’s extended baseline, primary deficits—that is, deficits excluding net outlays for interest—would average 2.3% of GDP over the 2026–2056 period, 0.2 percentage points larger than in the extended baseline. Debt held by the public would grow to 222 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2056, 47 percentage points larger than in the extended baseline. Average annual GDP growth over the 2026–2056 period would be 0.1 percentage point slower than in CBO’s extended baseline, and the average interest rate on federal debt would be 0.7 percentage points higher.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

CBO projects that under a scenario in which interest rates rise to 1 percentage point above its extended baseline, debt held by the public would reach 222% of GDP in fiscal year 2056, 47 percentage points above the extended baseline.
Primary deficits, which exclude net outlays for interest, would average 2.3% of GDP over 2026–2056 in CBO’s higher-interest-rate scenario, 0.2 percentage points larger than in its extended baseline.
Under CBO’s higher-interest-rate scenario, average annual GDP growth over 2026–2056 would be 0.1 percentage point slower and the average interest rate on federal debt 0.7 percentage points higher than in its extended baseline.

Estimated Fiscal Reaction Functions and the Calculation of Sustainable Government Net Debt Limits for the US and 24 Other OECD Countries

Mark Warshawsky American Enterprise Institute

Date Posted:: September 21, 2026
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Warshawsky calculates the US has a sustainable net debt limit, “the lowest level of debt at which a country can no longer service its sovereign debt and must effectively default,” of 186% of GDP, which he forecasts will be reached in ~15 years under current policy and economic conditions.

Using historical, current, and dynamic interest rate-to-economic growth differentials, countries’ sustainable debt limits are calculated on a net of central bank holdings of government debt basis. Sustainable net debt limits average 234% of GDP for these countries assuming historical rates and economic growth (221% for the US), 214% assuming (higher) current interest rates and economic growth (186% for the US). If, however, interest rates were to rise systematically with debt according to conservative assumptions, there is no model solution for France, Greece, Japan, Italy, the UK, and the US, given their current high debt levels; the average sustainable limit is 178% for the other countries. A reasonable conclusion to draw for the US is that the fiscal path under current policy and trends with rising interest rates is not sustainable in the short to intermediate term. A major fiscal consolidation package will be needed soon, as interest rates rise, unless significantly higher inflation or capital controls will result.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Sustainable net debt limits across the US and 24 other OECD countries average 234% of GDP under historical interest rate–growth differentials and 221% for the US, falling to 214% on average and 186% for the US under current, higher interest rates and growth.
If interest rates rise systematically with debt under conservative assumptions, the model yields no solution for France, Greece, Japan, Italy, the UK, and the US given their current high debt levels, while the average limit for the remaining countries is 178%.
A reasonable conclusion is that the US fiscal path under current policy and trends with rising interest rates is not sustainable in the short to intermediate term, and a major fiscal consolidation package will be needed soon unless significantly higher inflation or capital controls result.

Soaring Bond Yields, Gaping Deficits and Towering Debts: What Could Go Wrong?

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: September 17, 2026
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Refinancing the entire US debt stock at the current five-year borrowing rate, on current growth forecasts, would require a primary surplus of 1% of GDP to hold the debt ratio stable, a fiscal consolidation of 4.7pp. In October 2025, it would have required 2.3pp.

The Economist calculated what would happen if rich countries had to replace their entire debt stocks at today’s five-year bond yields, using IMF forecasts for nominal growth. Out of 22 countries, Britain would need to run the largest primary surplus, of about 1.5% of GDP, merely to keep its debt-to-GDP ratio stable. Italy and France are next, needing surpluses of 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively. America is not far behind, requiring one of 1%. Japan can run a deficit of 0.8% since its growth is estimated to outpace the interest rate on its debt. America is running a primary deficit of nearly 4% of GDP, meaning significant belt tightening of nearly five percentage points of GDP is needed to stabilise its debt ratio at today’s borrowing costs. The situation is deteriorating fast as a result of persistent deficits and surging yields. Just a year ago America required an adjustment of more than two percentage points less than it does today.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The Economist calculates that Britain would need the largest primary surplus of 22 rich countries, about 1.5% of GDP, to hold its debt-to-GDP ratio stable if it replaced its entire debt stock at today’s five-year yields.
America requires a primary surplus of 1% of GDP to stabilise its debt ratio at today’s borrowing costs while running a primary deficit of nearly 4%, implying belt tightening of nearly five percentage points of GDP, by The Economist’s calculation.
Japan can run a primary deficit of 0.8% of GDP and still keep its debt burden stable because its growth is estimated to outpace the interest rate on its debt, while Italy and France need surpluses of 1.4% and 1.2%.

US 30-Year Bonds Erase Gains From Treasury’s Buyback Surprise

Michael MacKenzie and Alice Gledhill Bloomberg

Date Posted:: August 20, 2026
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The 30-year yield rose ~7bps to as much as 5.27%, and the 10-year yield hit 4.71%, erasing “almost all” the gains that followed Treasury’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds.

US Treasuries erased almost all of the gains that followed the Trump administration’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds, signaling the move has done little to alleviate the angst about the surging government debt that has pushed some yields to the highest in close to two decades. The 30-year yield on Thursday rose over seven basis points to as much as 5.27%, where it was just ahead of the US Treasury Department’s announcement early Wednesday, before paring the gain. The 10-year yield touched 4.71%, just shy of its highest level since early 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The US 30-year Treasury yield rose more than seven basis points to as much as 5.27%, returning to where it stood just ahead of the Treasury Department's buyback announcement, before paring the gain.
US Treasuries erased almost all of the gains that followed the Trump administration's surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds, suggesting the move has done little to alleviate angst about surging government debt.
The US 10-year yield touched 4.71%, just shy of its highest level since early 2025, as angst over government debt pushed some yields to the highest in close to two decades.

A Long-Run Economic Model for Projecting the Finances of the U.S. Government and National Spending on Healthcare: Analysis of Productivity Increases and Health Sector Reform

Mark Warshawsky American Enterprise Institute

Date Posted:: July 23, 2026
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Warshawsky projects US debt-to-GDP will be 151% in 2036, well above CBO’s 120% projection, as higher real rates and a dynamic Baumol cost-disease effect will increase healthcare spending relative to GDP in an aging economy.

The Congressional Budget Office makes certain simplifying assumptions on health care spending, and is based on current law. By contrast, in the model presented in this paper, these variables are simultaneously determined by supply and demand, based on logical functional forms and parameter estimates from the literature or empirical analysis, and the model is based on current policy. This approach better reflects real economic relationships—between health care spending, the federal budget, and investment in capital—and changing underlying conditions, especially demographics. Within the next twenty or so years, the model predicts that federal government debt will grow significantly beyond historical experience, to be judged unsustainable because the real interest rate exceeds real economic growth. Debt-to-GDP will be 151% in 2036, 218% in 2046, and 309% in 2056, compared to CBO’s 120% in 2036 and 175% in 2056. Real interest rates rise for several decades, ratcheting interest payments, deficits, and debt in a vicious cycle.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The model projects U.S. federal debt-to-GDP at 151% in 2036, 218% in 2046, and 309% in 2056, above CBO's 120% in 2036 and 175% in 2056.
The model judges the projected debt path unsustainable because the real interest rate exceeds real economic growth, with real rates rising for several decades and ratcheting up interest payments, deficits, and debt.
Unlike CBO's current-law projections with simplifying assumptions on health care spending, the model determines these variables simultaneously through supply and demand under current policy, using functional forms and parameter estimates from the literature or empirical analysis.

Intergovernmental Grants to School Districts and Educational Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jeffrey Clemens, Philip Hoxie and Stan Veuger National Bureau of Economic Research

Date Posted:: July 16, 2026
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Exploiting a discontinuity in K-12 public school districts’ qualification for Covid emergency funding (ESSR), Clemens et al find that the funds did not mitigate learning loss. To a large extent, local districts used them to lower property taxes.

Emergency funding for K-12 public schools was an important component of recession spending packages during COVID, involving $190 billion in additional expenditure. We see no evidence that ESSER funds helped to mitigate learning loss, at least in the short run. We find no statistically significant evidence that districts increased expenditures in SY 2021 or SY 2022. We do find evidence that districts that qualified for additional ESSER funds had statistically significant reductions in local revenues that were in excess of their ESSER funds. This pass-through of federal funds may partially explain why ESSER had minimal impacts on learning loss for districts around the 5% poverty threshold. Our estimates suggest that over the three years, crossing the qualification cutoff for additional ESSER funds is associated with a $907 per pupil decrease in local revenues, or about 8% of the pre-COVID average. We show the decline in local revenues as an event study in Figure 3, which includes a flat pre-COVID trend in local revenues per pupil across the qualification threshold. In Table 5,Column 5 [], we can see that about 80% of the revenue decline came from decreases in revenues from property taxes, [which fell] by $718 per pupil across the 3 years. The findings apply specifically to districts in the neighborhood of the 5% poverty threshold for qualifying for additional ESSER funds.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Districts crossing the 5% poverty cutoff for additional ESSER funds saw local revenues fall an estimated $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of the pre-COVID average.
About 80% of that local revenue decline came from property taxes, which fell by $718 per pupil across the three years.
The authors find no evidence that ESSER emergency K-12 funding, totaling $190 billion, mitigated learning loss in the short run, and no statistically significant increase in district expenditures in SY 2021 or SY 2022.

Deficits raise 10-year Treasury yield by 18bps & ACM by 20bps, but aging demographics & high foreign demand for US Treasuries have offset this effect since 2001.

Why have long-term interest rates fallen while deficits and debt grew?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

If interest rates rise 1pp above CBO’s current extended baseline (a mean rate of 4% over 2026–2056), CBO projects federal debt held by the public will be 222% of GDP in 2056, versus 175% under the current baseline.

How much would higher interest rates raise projected federal debt?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Warshawsky calculates the US has a sustainable net debt limit, “the lowest level of debt at which a country can no longer service its sovereign debt and must effectively default,” of 186% of GDP, which he forecasts will be reached in ~15 years under current policy and economic conditions.

How high can government debt rise before it becomes unsustainable?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Refinancing the entire US debt stock at the current five-year borrowing rate, on current growth forecasts, would require a primary surplus of 1% of GDP to hold the debt ratio stable, a fiscal consolidation of 4.7pp. In October 2025, it would have required 2.3pp.

How much belt tightening would rich countries need to stabilize debt?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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The 30-year yield rose ~7bps to as much as 5.27%, and the 10-year yield hit 4.71%, erasing “almost all” the gains that followed Treasury’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds.

Do bigger bond buybacks ease concerns about surging government debt?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Warshawsky projects US debt-to-GDP will be 151% in 2036, well above CBO’s 120% projection, as higher real rates and a dynamic Baumol cost-disease effect will increase healthcare spending relative to GDP in an aging economy.

Does modeling health spending and interest rates jointly raise debt projections?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Exploiting a discontinuity in K-12 public school districts’ qualification for Covid emergency funding (ESSR), Clemens et al find that the funds did not mitigate learning loss. To a large extent, local districts used them to lower property taxes.

Do federal emergency education grants reduce student learning loss?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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