Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
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Who Is Driving Inequality? You Are

David Brooks New York Times
Date Posted:
April 25, 2020
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David Brooks @nytimes argues that inequality is driven by parents investing in their children, with affluent families spending nearly 300% more on education since 1996, widening the opportunity gap.

David Brooks @nytimes argues that inequality is driven by parents investing in their children, with affluent families...
Inequality is increasingly driven by parental investment in children, with affluent families spending nearly 300% more on education since 1996, while others' spending remains flat. This disparity contributes to a 32% growth in family income inequality since 1979 due to differences in family structure. The top 20% of earners, concentrated in talent-rich zones, invest heavily in their children's education, resulting in students from affluent families being four grade levels ahead by eighth grade. At the 150 most competitive colleges, 72% of students come from the richest quarter of families, while only 3% come from the poorest. This geographic concentration of wealth and opportunity exacerbates inequality, creating a caste-like society. To bridge the opportunity gap, resources must be allocated to empower the bottom 80% with access to quality education and community-driven initiatives, as demonstrated by successful models in neighborhoods like Compton.

David Brooks, "Who Is Driving Inequality? You Are,"New York Times, April 23, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/opinion/income-inequality.html

Who is driving inequality in America? You are. I am. We are.

Did you read to your kids before bed when they were young? If you did, you gave them an advantage over kids whose parents were working the evening shift at 7-Eleven. Did you spend extra on tutoring or music lessons? Since 1996, affluent families have spent almost 300 percent more educating their young while everybody else’s spending has been mostly flat.

Did you marry before having kids and raise your kids in a two-parent home? The children of the well educated are now much more likely to grow up in stable families, and those differences in family structure explain 32 percent of the growth of family income inequality since 1979.

If you did these things, you did nothing wrong. You invested in your children’s flourishing as any decent parent would.

But here’s the situation: The information economy rains money on highly trained professionals — doctors, lawyers, corporate managers, engineers and so on.

Daniel Markovits, author of “The Meritocracy Trap,” estimates there are about one million of these workers in America today. They work really hard, are really productive and earn a lot more. In the mid-1960s, profits per partner at elite law firms were less than five times a secretary’s salary. Now, Markovits notes, they are over 40 times.

These professionals invest heavily in their children’s education. By eighth grade, students from affluent families are four grade levels ahead of students from poor families. Seventy-two percent of students at the 150 most competitive colleges come from the richest quarter of families, and only 3 percent come from the poorest.

Inherited inequality is bad enough. But it’s the geographic concentration that is really turning America into a caste society. Affluent people used to be spread around: owning the local bank or factory, sending their kids to the local schools.

Now those of us in the top 20 percent of earners are concentrated in talent-rich zones around New York, D.C., the Bay Area, etc. The already advantaged build rich communities and multiply one another’s advantages even more. It takes a village to raise a Stanford grad.

You don’t have to drive very far outside these top 20 percent communities to find yourself in a different universe. In February I drove from Manhattan Beach, Calif., to Watts in South Central L.A. and Compton, where I spent a few days interviewing residents.

People in Compton and Watts — almost exclusively Latino and black — talked about all the things that have been stripped away from their communities: good schools, public amenities, school choirs, music festivals. Fear was a constant subject of conversation. Most of the people I spoke with had lost a family member to gun violence.

People spoke about intense levels of social distrust; the locals had been betrayed again and again by outsiders and now are very skeptical of people promising to make improvements. They talked about trauma. “There are Compton riots on the inside now,” one resident told me.

I chose to go to Compton and Watts for a specific reason, which offers a way forward. Harvard economist Raj Chetty recently led a study that showed that though these two neighborhoods are demographically similar and only 2.3 miles apart, 44 percent of the black men who grew up in Watts were incarcerated on April 1, 2010, compared with only 6.2 percent of the black men who grew up in families with similar incomes in Central Compton. Similarly, social mobility was much lower in Watts than in Compton.

Why are some neighborhoods, including some in Compton, able to give their kids better chances in life despite so many disadvantages? Chetty points to several factors: better schools, more fathers present in the neighborhoods and more cohesive community organizations.

I found all those things in my reporting in Compton — and something else. Watts is part of Los Angeles. Compton is its own city with its own mayor. I met a lot of great people in Watts, but Compton has more civic infrastructure — community groups and locally controlled government agencies. Compton has a lot of homegrown civic reformers, like Rafer Owens, who is a deputy Los Angeles County sheriff and pastor at a Baptist church. There’s also a mentality: We have faith in our ability to take care of ourselves; only people in the neighborhood really know what’s going on.

Some people who talk about inequality focus on the top 1 percent, and if you want to go after the hedge fund billionaires feel free. But as inequality is actually lived out, it’s the 20/80 gap that is most glaring and most unjust.

But we can reduce the opportunity gap if we follow the lessons of Compton: First, the neighborhood is the unit of change. Social mobility rises village by village. Second, the people in the community have to be in charge. They need resources from outside, but only local control does the trick. Third, spending money on preschool, apprenticeship and other human capital programs really works.

The top 20 percent is not going to stop spending heavily on their kids. We have to give the bottom 80 percent the resources to do the same.

Ed Comment:I don't buy the invest more in the low scorers argument because it mistakenly assumes the returns would be the same as investing in the high scores, which of course is pablum/BS. I suspect we don't invest more, not because we wouldn't if the payback was high, but because it's not high. My kid barely accepts the investment.

Additional Ed Comment:I remember when the book came out. Even though I disagree, I would be interested to see all his data. After all, I'm in the business of facts communicated as factoids. While I don't have time to disagree with all the misguided thinking in the world, I think it would be good to have the best ones in the file tag with "Ed disagrees," especially the data intensive ones, whee the data can be used to support the truth. Here's what the author misses is: 1) the growing value of talent in our increasingly technical world relative to the supply of talent has sucked the talented into its vaccum via growing incentives rather than talent merely pushing their way into a niche that hasn't changed. 2) We largely serve our fellow man as customers. Society doesn't need it's talent to goof off. It needs them to work hard. Mission a accomplished. Let's celebrate instead of bemoaning the fact they are working hard. People can always goof off if the want to. That's the problem, not the solution. I ought to debate this guy (at IQ2).

"...The information economy rains money on highly trained professionals — doctors, lawyers, corporate managers, engineers and so on. Daniel Markovits, author of “The Meritocracy Trap,” estimates there are about one million of these workers in America today. They work really hard, are really productive and earn a lot more. In the mid-1960s, profits per partner at elite law firms were less than five times a secretary’s salary. Now, Markovits notes, they are over 40 times. These professionals invest heavily in their children’s education. By eighth grade, students from affluent families are four grade levels ahead of students from poor families. Seventy-two percent of students at the 150 most competitive colleges come from the richest quarter of families, and only 3 percent come from the poorest...."

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Previous articleApril 25, 2020The Tax-Break Bonanza Inside the Economic Rescue PackageThe economic rescue package includes $174bn in temporary tax breaks, primarily benefiting wealthy individuals & large corporations. These breaks favor those earning at least $1m annually & enhance profit margins for private equity firms.Next articleApril 26, 2020How Inequality Hurts the Economy and Complicates Policy Responses to the PandemicAt the lower bound, the economy cannot maintain equilibrium unless output falls.
Showing 82 database articles primarily about Test Scores

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

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  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
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The Lost Generation

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
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Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...
In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

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  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — Breaking down the 2022 PISA math results by subpopulation, @cremieuxrecueil finds that US Asians and whites topped the charts, scoring on par with top…
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Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

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  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The 2024 NAEP results show that 40% of fourth graders are “below basic” in reading proficiency, relative to 30% who are “at or above proficient.” 39% of…
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Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
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Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

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  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Students at Ivy-Plus colleges with 99th percentile SAT/ACT scores earned a first-year college GPA 0.43 points higher than students who scored at the 75th…
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Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
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Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

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Covid Learning Losses

David Leonhardt New York Times
Date Posted:
February 12, 2025
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.@DLeonhardt reports a sharp partisan gap in learning loss: 8 of the 10 states with the biggest math declines since 2019 – likely due to prolonged school closures – voted Democratic, while 8 of the 10 smallest shortfalls voted Republican.

Many public schools in heavily Democratic areas stayed closed for almost a year — from the spring of 2020 until the spring of 2021. In some Republican areas, by contrast, schools remained closed for only the spring of 2020. Eight of the 10 states that have lost the most ground since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections. And eight of the 10 states with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican. [Higher initial scores don’t] explain the post-pandemic patterns. For example, New Jersey (a blue state) and Utah (a red state) both had high math scores in 2019, but New Jersey has fared much worse since then.

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