Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. China is adding more chip-making capacity than the rest of the world combined, all in mature nodes, backed by government incentives worth more than $150bn, according to research consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics. Utilization rates for mature-node chip producers have fallen from nearly 100% to 65–75%, leaving India's $11bn semiconductor push facing an already well-supplied market.

Megha Mandavia Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

China is expected to add more legacy chipmaking capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024, creating a risk that indigenous chipmaking efforts in India will be stillborn.

Does China's mature-node chip expansion undercut India's semiconductor ambitions?

Core argument: China will add more chip-making capacity in 2024 than the rest of the world combined — one million more wafers a month than in 2023, all at mature nodes — according to Gavekal Dragonomics.

When India’s largest conglomerate, Tata Group, broke ground on a $11 billion semiconductor factory this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the country was poised to become a world leader in the sector. He might be in for a rude awakening. China, is pouring capital into legacy chip making on a breathtaking scale. China will add more chip-making capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024, according to research consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics: one million more wafers a month than in 2023—all mature nodes. China’s aggressive expansion comes at a time when the market for legacy chips is already well supplied. Utilization rates for producers of mature-node chips have fallen from nearly 100% in 2020 to 65-75% at present, according to Gavekal. China’s government incentives—worth more than $150 billion—will help producers absorb losses. But India would struggle to shower such a capital-intensive infant industry with that kind of cash, especially given its already high government debt and enormous funding needs for infrastructure in general.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China will add more chip-making capacity in 2024 than the rest of the world combined — one million more wafers a month than in 2023, all at mature nodes — according to Gavekal Dragonomics.
  2. Utilization rates for mature-node chip producers have fallen from nearly 100% in 2020 to 65–75% at present, according to Gavekal, as China expands into an already well-supplied legacy chip market.
  3. Chinese government incentives worth more than $150 billion will help domestic producers absorb losses, while India's high government debt and infrastructure funding needs would make comparable support difficult, as Tata Group breaks ground on an $11 billion semiconductor factory.

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  • China AI & Semiconductors Rise: US Sanctions Have Failed — China's Kirin 9000S is a better-designed, leading-edge chip than the West realizes, developed without access to extreme ultraviolet lithography or cutting-edge US intellectual property, indicating existing export controls have not worked. The authors argue only decisive, full-scale measures—not half measures—could prevent China from mass-manufacturing chips needed for high-end military applications.
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