Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The Congressional Budget Office projects federal debt held by the public will climb from about 98% of GDP to 118% by 2035, with deficits totaling $22tn over the decade and interest costs rising to 4.1% of GDP. Real growth is projected to average 1.8%, with inflation near 2%.

CRFB Staff Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget
Date Posted:

CBO’s 2025 baseline, assuming the expiration of TCJA, projects debt growing from 98% of GDP today to 118% by 2035. Extension of the TCJA would bring debt to 129% of GDP by 2035. @MarcGoldwein

How high will federal debt and interest costs rise by 2035?

Core argument: CBO projects debt held by the public will rise from nearly $29 trillion, roughly 98% of GDP, to $52 trillion, or 118% of GDP, by 2035, with deficits totaling $22 trillion (5.8% of GDP) over the decade.

Debt held by the public will rise from nearly $29 trillion today, or roughly 98% of GDP, to $52 trillion by 2035, or 118% of GDP. Deficits will total $22 trillion (5.8% of GDP) over the next decade. Spending will grow from 23.3% of GDP in 2025 to 24% by 2035, while revenue will grow from 17.1% of GDP in 2025 to 18.3% by 2035 under current law, which assumes the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts at the end of this year. Interest costs will match their record as a share of GDP in 2025 – 3.2%– and rise to 4.1% of GDP by FY 2035. The economy will continue growing at a steady clip, with real GDP growth averaging 1.8% over the decade, unemployment and inflation normalizing around 4.4% and 2%, respectively, and 10-year Treasury notes averaging 3.8% by the end of the decade.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. CBO projects debt held by the public will rise from nearly $29 trillion, roughly 98% of GDP, to $52 trillion, or 118% of GDP, by 2035, with deficits totaling $22 trillion (5.8% of GDP) over the decade.
  2. CBO projects interest costs will match their record share of GDP at 3.2% in 2025 and rise to 4.1% of GDP by fiscal year 2035.
  3. CBO projects spending will grow from 23.3% of GDP in 2025 to 24% by 2035 while revenue rises from 17.1% to 18.3%, under current law, which assumes the 2017 tax cuts expire at the end of this year.

Related Articles:

  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9tn (6.2% of GDP) to $2.7tn by 2035, well above the 3.8% of GDP average of the past 50 years. Outlays are projected to rise to 24.4% of GDP, driven by growth in Social Security and Medicare spending and rising net interest costs, while revenues reach 18.3%.
  • The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget — The Congressional Budget Office projects that if private investment were more sensitive to federal deficits, debt held by the public would exceed 250% of GDP and real national income per person would be 18% ($21,300) lower than its baseline, with the average interest rate on federal debt 2pp higher.
  • Larry Summers and Bob Rubin Join Our CIOs to Discuss the Surprising Economic Cycle — Adopting the Simpson-Bowles fiscal consolidation when interest rates were at zero would have risked excessive disinflation, since long rates had no room to fall to provide an offsetting expansionary impulse. After the large run-up in debt and rise in real interest rates, the developing fiscal situation risks inflationary pressure, Treasury market disruption, or crowding out of private investment.
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