Looking at the past year since the onset of the global tightening cycle, differences in discounted growth, discounted inflation, discount rates, and risk premiums have been very large between the Western blocs and Asia. And while the discounting has been correlated between North America and Europe, the magnitudes of the changes have been quite different, especially in discounted inflation and changes in risk premiums. Are these divergences likely to persist? Structurally, the rising independence of Europe and Asia (with China at its center) as economic blocs with their own monetary policies makes that highly likely. Whereas in the past the US dominated globalized economic and capital flows and the business cycles were more aligned, today each bloc is in a different cyclical position due to its response to the pandemic. And these cyclical differences are being compounded by today’s policy decisions and how that will influence future conditions.
- Date Posted:
- April 17, 2023
The United Nations refugee agency counted 116,868 Chinese seeking asylum around the world at a point measured in mid-2022, up from 15,362 at the end of 2012, the year Mr. Xi took power. The U.N. numbers don’t include Chinese who enter other countries using work, tourist or other types of visas—often people with more assets and education—which have also increased in the past decade. China has a population of around 1.4 billion. In the first three months of this year, 3,855 Chinese migrants crossed the Darién Gap, the 60 miles or so of treacherous terrain connecting South and Central America. That compares with 2,005 for the full year in 2022, and just 376 Chinese total in the years from 2010 to 2021, according to Panama migration data. Chinese nationals were the fourth-largest group making the Darién crossing from Colombia in the three months, the data showed. The Chinese taking the Latin America route are generally those with low incomes, education levels and skills, who have little to no chance of securing a U.S. visa.