“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal

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On the Move: Which Cities Have The Biggest Housing Shortage?

Anna Zhou Bank of America

Date Posted:: August 15, 2023

.@BankofAmerica reports that in Q2 ‘23 San Antonio, Dallas, and Orlando have the most constrained housing supplies as buoyant labor markets continue to attract people.

Our analysis suggests that in 2Q, San Antonio, Dallas, and Orlando have the most constrained housing supply as buoyant labor markets continue to attract people. St. Louis, Detroit, and Miami seem to have the highest housing stock relative to their population. The good news is that cities with lower housing supply are already seeing higher construction trends but if the current population dynamics are maintained there will continue to be a strong housing need in the growing parts of the country. Looking more broadly at population flow, Bank of America internal data suggests that in 2Q, 13 out of the 27 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) we track continue to see positive year-over-year growth in population with Jacksonville and Columbus leading the gain. Charlotte, Nashville, and Las Vegas saw accelerating pace of increase in residents than in 1Q.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Bank of America's analysis suggests San Antonio, Dallas, and Orlando had the most constrained housing supply in 2Q, as buoyant labor markets continue to attract people, while St. Louis, Detroit, and Miami appear to have the highest housing stock relative to population.
Bank of America internal data suggest 13 of the 27 Metropolitan Statistical Areas tracked saw positive year-over-year population growth in 2Q, led by Jacksonville and Columbus, with Charlotte, Nashville, and Las Vegas accelerating from 1Q.
Cities with lower housing supply are already seeing higher construction trends, but Bank of America expects continued strong housing need in growing parts of the country if current population dynamics are maintained.

First-Time Home Buyers Are Older Than Ever

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: March 24, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.

At what age do people buy their first home? My analysis of data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) shows that, on average, they’re 35—three years older than a decade ago, and eight years older than in the 1970s. The PSID is a remarkable dataset. Like wildlife researchers tagging a pod of whales, the researchers at the University of Michigan have tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families they began studying in 1968. This ‘longitudinal’ data allows us to observe the kids in these families as they leave home, form their own households, rent their first apartments, and eventually become first time buyers (FTBs) of homes. And because specific individuals are tracked over time, we can pinpoint the exact moment someone transitions from renting to owning for the first time, and how old they were when it happened. No other U.S. dataset can do this, and none go as far back as the 1960s.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

First-time U.S. home buyers are on average 35 years old, three years older than a decade ago and eight years older than in the 1970s, according to an analysis of the University of Michigan's Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
The Panel Study of Income Dynamics has tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families first studied in 1968, allowing observation of when specific people leave home, rent, and first buy a home.
No other U.S. dataset can pinpoint the exact moment an individual transitions from renting to owning, and none extends back as far as the 1960s.

How the Housing Market Split in Two

Jess Remington Agglomerations

Date Posted:: March 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.

Historically, monthly housing costs for new and existing homeowners have tended to move in tandem. From 1990 through the aftermath of the Great Recession, both groups saw costs rise during booms and fall during downturns, with the gap between them remaining relatively stable at two to four percentage points. That pattern briefly reversed during the Great Recession, when new buyers were able to purchase homes at depressed prices and consequently spent slightly less of their income on housing than existing owners. By 2017, the typical two-point gap had returned. The current divergence began in earnest in 2022. By 2024, new homeowners were spending 26% of their income on housing, compared to 20% for existing homeowners — a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years. Although new homeowners spent a slightly larger share of their income on housing at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 (28%), the gap with existing homeowners was smaller (four percentage points).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

New homeowners spent 26% of their income on housing in 2024 versus 20% for existing homeowners, a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years.
From 1990 through the aftermath of the Great Recession, housing cost burdens for new and existing homeowners moved together, with the gap holding at two to four percentage points; the current divergence began in earnest in 2022.
At the 2007 housing bubble peak, new homeowners spent a slightly larger 28% of income on housing, but the gap with existing homeowners was four percentage points.

Living With Mom And Dad At 30

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: February 25, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

Among married 30-year-olds, the homeownership rate has barely budged—63% in 1990, 60% today. Among single 30-year-olds living alone, the homeownership rate actually rose, from 25% to 29%. The typical 30-year-old living at home is male (61%), has never been married (89%), and doesn’t have a college degree (73%). Only 27% have a bachelor’s, compared to 42% of all 30-year-olds. In the early 1990s the profile of those living at home at 30 looked nearly identical: 64% male, 77% never married, and less educated than average. [However], in the ’90s, a greater proportion of young, less educated men would have gotten married and moved out. Among men without a college degree—the group most likely to be living with their parents—the marriage rate has plunged from 58% to 36%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Among men without a college degree, the group most likely to live with their parents, the marriage rate has fallen from 58% to 36%.
Homeownership among married 30-year-olds has barely moved, from 63% in 1990 to 60% today, while among single 30-year-olds living alone it rose from 25% to 29%.
The typical 30-year-old living at home is male (61%), never married (89%), and without a college degree (73%), with only 27% holding a bachelor's versus 42% of all 30-year-olds.

Productivity Stagnation in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective

Elsie Peng Goldman Sachs

Date Posted:: February 3, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.

Our analysis shows that, within the US, the tightening of land use regulations has accounted for 40% of the gap in productivity growth between construction and the rest of the economy since 1965, and the lack of innovation and quality mismeasurement have each accounted for 20%. Looking across countries, we find that more severe tightening of land use regulations and greater quality mismeasurement account for most of the underperformance of the US construction industry since 1991, relative to other major G10 countries.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The authors estimate that tightening US land use regulations accounts for 40% of the productivity growth gap between construction and the rest of the US economy since 1965.
Lack of innovation and quality mismeasurement each account for 20% of the US construction productivity growth gap relative to the rest of the economy since 1965, according to the authors' analysis.
Across countries, the authors find that more severe tightening of land use regulations and greater quality mismeasurement account for most of the US construction industry's underperformance since 1991 relative to other major G10 countries.

What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership?

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: January 28, 2026
Is Database:: Database

60% of millennials who are married and living apart from their parents at age 30 own a home, compared to 68% of comparable baby boomers. At 30, 42% of millennials are married, versus 64% of boomers.

The diagram traces the path from birth to living arrangement at age 30 for Millennials and Boomers. It reveals two junctures where the generations diverged. First, household formation: 31% of Millennials at age 30 still live with parents or roommates, compared to just 19% of Boomers at the same age—a 12-percentage-point gap that immediately disqualifies Millennials from the ownership track. Second, marriage: among those who do form households, only 61% of Millennials are married by age 30, versus 77% of Boomers. These two factors—not leaving the nest and not marrying, at least by age 30—account for the bulk of the 18-point ownership gap (43% for Boomers vs. 25% for Millennials). Part of this comes down to shifting preferences and values, but stretched affordability is also an important driver. Strikingly, conditional on being a married household head, ownership rates are much closer: 68% of married Boomer heads owned at 30, compared to 60% of Millennials—an 8-point gap, far smaller than the headline 18-point difference.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Home ownership at age 30 is 25% for Millennials versus 43% for Boomers, an 18-point gap the analysis attributes largely to differences in household formation and marriage.
Among Millennials at age 30, 31% still live with parents or roommates, compared with 19% of Boomers, a 12-point gap that excludes them from the ownership track.
Among married household heads, ownership at age 30 is 60% for Millennials versus 68% for Boomers, an 8-point gap far smaller than the headline 18-point difference.

Why Do People Leave New York City?

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: December 12, 2025
Is Database:: Database

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

The vast majority of NYC emigrants aren’t fleeing to Texas or Florida—they’re moving to Long Island and Westchester, citing housing as their primary motivation. These are not people who have given up on the New York metro area; they’re people who want more space, want to own rather than rent, or simply want a better home than they can afford in the five boroughs. Interstate movers are a different story. They tend to be younger, more educated, and childless—and they leave primarily for jobs. This cohort is harder to retain through housing policy alone; their departures reflect the pull of opportunity elsewhere rather than the push of inadequate housing. The policy implication is straightforward: New York City cannot compete with booming job markets in other cities or Miami’s climate. The four out of five emigrants from New York City who stay local are, in effect, still rooting for New York—they just need a place to live.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Four out of five people leaving New York City stay within the metro area, moving to places like Long Island and Westchester and citing housing as their primary motivation.
Local movers from New York City are seeking more space, homeownership rather than renting, or a better home than they can afford in the five boroughs.
Interstate movers from New York City tend to be younger, more educated, and childless, and they leave primarily for jobs, making them harder to retain through housing policy alone.

.@BankofAmerica reports that in Q2 ‘23 San Antonio, Dallas, and Orlando have the most constrained housing supplies as buoyant labor markets continue to attract people.

Which cities have the most constrained housing supply relative to population?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.

Are Americans buying their first homes at older ages?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.

How wide is the housing cost gap between new and existing homeowners?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

Do falling marriage rates explain more 30-year-olds living with parents?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.

Why has construction productivity growth lagged the rest of the economy?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

60% of millennials who are married and living apart from their parents at age 30 own a home, compared to 68% of comparable baby boomers. At 30, 42% of millennials are married, versus 64% of boomers.

Do delayed household formation and marriage explain lower young-adult homeownership?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

Why do most people leaving the city move to nearby suburbs?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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