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The Inside Track to Elite Colleges: Not Just White and Wealthy

Jason Delisle National Review
Date Posted:
May 7, 2020
Is Database:
Database

At Selective Colleges White Students Have Higher SAT Scores Than Black And Hispanics.

At Selective Colleges White Students Have Higher SAT Scores Than Black And Hispanics.
At selective colleges, white students have higher SAT scores on average than black and Hispanic students, contradicting the notion that lower test-score standards primarily benefit wealthy white students. Research indicates that if admissions were based solely on SAT scores, 40% of white students would need to leave, but this would also result in 60% of Hispanic and nearly 70% of black students leaving. Consequently, the student body would become whiter and wealthier, with the share of white students increasing from 63% to 67% and high-income students from 47% to 52%. This highlights the tension between maintaining high test-score standards and achieving racial and economic diversity in admissions.

Jason Delisle, "The Inside Track to Elite Colleges: Not Just White and Wealthy,"National Review, March 27, 2019, https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/03/college-admissions-scandal-legacies-rich-kids-not-problem/amp/

In the wake of the college-admissions scandal, some pundits believe they now have license to make sweeping generalizations about elite higher education, no matter how unmoored from reality their arguments might be. What else could explain the bizarre op-ed that appeared recently in the Washington Post by a well-respected researcher?

The author of the piece, Anthony P. Carnevale, the director of Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, uses the admissions scandal to argue that entry into selective colleges has always been rigged to favor white and high-income families. While it’s true that there are a lot of high-income, white students at those schools, Carnevale’s evidence about how those students were admitted should have raised a red flag at the Washington Post. Here is how Carnevale begins his argument:

The shocking part of the scandal is that wealthy, connected people actually thought they had to cheat to get their children into selective colleges. They already have plenty of avenues for “honest” graft: bypassing anything resembling a fair process and rigging the game in their favor. These include separate admissions tracks or standards for legacies — children related to alumni — as well as applicants connected to donors, politicians, and college employees and officials. There’s an inside track and an outside track, and if you don’t know about the inside track, your kids aren’t on it.

Now that Carnevale has many of his readers nodding in agreement, he’s going to break out some research to start making his case about another characteristic of these well-connected and privileged students who were admitted under separate standards: They are not very smart.

Our research shows that 25 percent of all students attending colleges in the two highest tiers of selectivity (about 200 of the most elite colleges in America) have SAT scores that are well below the average test scores of entrants to those institutions.

There’s the red flag. The research cited is nothing more than a description of how averages work. Some students are well above average; some are well below average. It’s tautological pablum. But maybe Carnevale is going to tell readers who those students in the bottom 25 percent of the test scores are. He has certainly primed readers to think they are the students on the “inside track.” Here is his very next line:

If admissions were based on test scores alone, more than 40 percent of the white students already enrolled in such institutions would have to leave.

In other words, dumb, rich, white kids are getting into selective colleges based on lower test-score standards. That’s what the back-to-back placement of Carnevale’s statistics strongly implies: The bottom 25 percent of test scores must belong to 40 percent of the white students at selective colleges. And that appears to be what Carnevale intends readers to think, because he immediately asks, “How did they get in?” and then continues to argue that it’s not due to merit.

When it comes to college, there are two very different Americas. To most of the country, college is supposed to be a meritocracy, a reward to those who have worked the hardest and sharpened their talents. To the wealthy and connected, on the other hand, America’s selective colleges are their birthright, the final step in the youthful coronation to an aristocracy posing as a meritocracy.

But Carnevale has pulled a fast one on his readers. His two statistics — the one about the students with below-average test scores and the other about 40 percent of white students having to leave based on test scores alone — are not at all connected. The first, if it has any meaning, refers to all students enrolled at selective colleges. The second refers only to white students, but from all income groups. Moreover, the second statistic doesn’t even specify what test score cutoff would force 40 percent of white students to leave, a crucial piece of information. It turns out to be about 1190 on the SAT (combined math and verbal scores).

Based on Carnevale’s argument and statistics, it’s fair to assume that if students at selective colleges with SAT scores below 1190 all had to leave, those schools should become more racially diverse (less white) and more economically diverse (fewer high-income students). After all, 1190 is the cutoff that he implies would boot out all of the low-scoring white students who were admitted based on their wealth and connections. Yes, set the admissions cutoff at 1190 on the SAT, and 40 percent of the white students would have to leave, although half of these students actually come from families earning too little to meet Carnevale’s definition of wealthy.

It would also mean that 60 percent of Hispanic students and nearly 70 percent of black students would have to leave. As a result, the remaining student body would be whiter (and more Asian) and wealthier. The share of white students would increase from 63 percent to 67 percent of the student body, and the share of high-income students would increase from 47 percent to 52 percent. Contrary to what Carnevale implies,at selective colleges, white students and high-income students have higher SAT scores on average than low-income and middle-income students, as well as black and Hispanic students.

Keep in mind, I’m not proposing that colleges determine admissions standards by test scores alone. It’s Carnevale who is complaining that there is an alternative track into selective schools, one with lower standards that is not meritocratic, which he identifies using test scores.

Most observers understand that admissions standards based strictly on high test scores are often in tension with achieving a more racially and economically diverse student body at selective colleges. But Carnevale wants readers to think those goals are not in tension, and he does this by arguing — erroneously — that the surest way to get into an elite college if you have a subpar test score is to be rich and white. Unfortunately, many who read the Washington Post op-ed may have bought his argument.

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Showing 83 database articles primarily about Test Scores

PISA 2025 Results (Volume I)

AI Summary. Global student performance in mathematics and reading has declined sharply since 2018, with reading scores falling 14 points and math scores falling 9 points between 2022 and 2025 alone.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are global education systems failing to teach core skills?

Core argument: The share of “hasty readers” — students giving fast, incorrect responses — nearly doubled from 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with math showing a parallel rise between 2022 and 2025, signaling deteriorating effort and engagement rather than pure skill loss.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of “hasty readers” — students giving fast, incorrect responses — nearly doubled from 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with math showing a parallel rise between 2022 and 2025, signaling deteriorating effort and engagement rather than pure skill loss.
  2. Among the most advantaged quartile of students, the share scoring below math proficiency Level 2 reached 18% in 2025, up approximately 4 percentage points, indicating that academic decline is no longer concentrated among disadvantaged populations.

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  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — The sharp rise in China’s PISA scores btw 2015 and 2018 coincided with “peculiar changes to the roster of provinces representing China,” further…
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — Citing PISA results @jburnmurdoch notes the share of adults in high income countries who can not “use mathematical reasoning when reviewing and…
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Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
Is Database:
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — .@OppInsights finds that the “Ivy-Plus” (Ivy League, plus UChicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) admit students from the highest income families scoring in the top 1%…
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
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The Lost Generation

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
Is Database:
Database
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Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...
In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

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  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — Breaking down the 2022 PISA math results by subpopulation, @cremieuxrecueil finds that US Asians and whites topped the charts, scoring on par with top…
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Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
Is Database:
Database
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

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  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The 2024 NAEP results show that 40% of fourth graders are “below basic” in reading proficiency, relative to 30% who are “at or above proficient.” 39% of…
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Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
Is Database:
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Is Important:
Important

Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

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  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — .@OppInsights finds that the “Ivy-Plus” (Ivy League, plus UChicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) admit students from the highest income families scoring in the top 1%…
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Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

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