We aggregate the revenue of all companies in each region and create a daily updated index of year-over-year revenue growth. Our indexed revenue growth data shows that the US has won not necessarily by growing fastest every year (the US had the fastest regional growth in only 3 out of the last 10 years) but rather by having strong growth throughout the decade, with about 20% lower volatility than Europe or Japan. But what’s perhaps most interesting is that regressing relative equity returns against relative revenue growth had no statistical significance. The fastest-growing equity markets did not concurrently earn the highest equity returns within each year. To understand why, examine the chart below, which shows average revenue growth versus average equity returns by region by year.
- Date Posted:
- January 17, 2024
Despite clear evidence that it was slowed down by unexpected economic headwinds this year, China will almost certainly claim to have hit its “around 5%” GDP growth target for 2023. The realities of a still-shrinking property sector, limited consumer spending, falling trade surplus, and battered local government finances mean that actual growth in 2023 was more like 1.5%. Looking ahead, China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024 as property bottoms out, although structural slowdown will naturally remain the dominant story for years to come.