Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Knowledge-sector workers in data-intensive, repetitive, or research-focused roles—such as medical schedulers, insurance claims processors, and financial advisers—will likely face a job market requiring skill upgrading, transfer to other industries that use their knowledge for related tasks, or acceptance of lower-skilled, lower-paid work. This "up or out" pattern resembles the skills-biased technological change that previously affected middle-skill manufacturing workers.

Brent Orrell American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:

AI diffusion through “knowledge-based” service sector jobs has increased – and will likely continue to increase – demand for noncognitive “social skills,” with workers who have both cognitive and social skills faring the best.

Will knowledge workers face the same up-or-out pressures as manufacturing workers?

Core argument: Knowledge workers in data-intensive, repetitive, or research-focused roles—including medical schedulers, insurance claims investigators and processors, and financial advisers—will likely face a job market demanding skill upgrading, a move to other sectors, or acceptance of lower-skilled, lower-paid work.

Workers in the knowledge sector whose jobs are data intensive and repetitive or research focused—such as medical schedulers, insurance claims investigators and processors, and financial adviser—will likely face a job market that requires skill upgrading, transferring to other sectors and industries that leverage their knowledge and experience for related tasks, or, in the worst case, accepting lower-skilled (and lower-paid) jobs. This “up or out” feature of the knowledge-workforce future strongly resembles the skills-biased technological change (SBTC) that previously had powerful effects on workers in middle-skill manufacturing jobs.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Knowledge workers in data-intensive, repetitive, or research-focused roles—including medical schedulers, insurance claims investigators and processors, and financial advisers—will likely face a job market demanding skill upgrading, a move to other sectors, or acceptance of lower-skilled, lower-paid work.
  2. The "up or out" feature of the knowledge workforce's future resembles the skills-biased technological change that previously had powerful effects on workers in middle-skill manufacturing jobs.

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  • Technological Disruption in the Labor Market — The authors measure US labor market structure since 1880 and find 1990–2017 less disruptive than any earlier period, because past changes from general-purpose technologies like steam and electricity were so profound. They identify four recent signs of accelerating change, including a 50%+ rise in science and technology employment share since 2010.
  • More Than A Quarter of Computer-Programming Jobs Just Vanished. What Happened? — The number of computer programmers in the United States is at its lowest level since 1980, a period in which the total U.S. workforce grew about 75%. Programming jobs, which the government classifies as more routine than software development work, fell 27.5%, while software developer jobs fell 0.3%.
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