Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Using a standard price index, US men's earnings were flat from 1973 to 1989 and rose 0.4% a year thereafter, while an alternative middle-class cost-of-living index shows 0.7% annual growth in both periods and a 40% total rise instead of 13%. The author attributes weak growth to 1970s stagflation and early-1980s recessions rather than trade, immigration, or income concentration.

Scott Winship American Enterprise Institute
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Adjusting earnings with the relatively standard PCEPI deflator, Winship finds that real earnings of year-round male workers aged 15+ were flat from 1973–79, but grew 13% from 1989–2023. With his experimental MACPI deflator, they grew 40% over 1973–2023.

How much have middle-class men's earnings grown over fifty years?

Core argument: Deflated by the PCE price index, men's earnings were flat over the 16 years from 1973 to 1989 and rose 0.4% per year over the 34 years from 1989 to 2023.

As shown in Table 2, during the 16 years from 1973 to 1989, men’s earnings [deflated by the relatively standard PCEPI] were flat, but during the 34 years from 1989 to 2023, they rose by 0.4% per year. The biggest problem for men over the past 50 years was a period of stagnation or decline that ended 40 years ago, with 1983 marking its low point. While the economy was underperforming for a stretch, that period has receded into the distant past, and things are on the upswing. Explanations for why growth wasn’t stronger have less to do with the China Shock, immigration, the global financial crisis, the Great Recession, or rising income concentration than they do with the stagflation of the 1970s and the deep recessions of the early 1980s. When we use the [more experimental] MACPI [which focuses on a basket of goods that Winship regards as more representative of those purchased by the middle class] to adjust for the rise in the cost of living, instead of rising by 13%, male year-round workers’ earnings rose by 40%. Men’s earnings rose 0.7% per year from 1973 to 1989 and 0.7% per year from 1989 to 2023.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Deflated by the PCE price index, men's earnings were flat over the 16 years from 1973 to 1989 and rose 0.4% per year over the 34 years from 1989 to 2023.
  2. Using the more experimental MACPI, a basket Winship regards as more representative of middle-class purchases, male year-round workers' earnings rose 40% rather than 13%, gaining 0.7% per year in both 1973–1989 and 1989–2023.
  3. Winship attributes weaker male earnings growth over the past 50 years to the stagflation of the 1970s and the deep recessions of the early 1980s, with 1983 the low point, rather than the China Shock, immigration, the financial crisis, or rising income concentration.

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  • Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans’ “Lyin’” Eyes? The Answer Is Yes — Gallup polling finds that while roughly 80% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, about 80% are satisfied with the way things are going in their own lives, including 90% satisfied with family life, 88% with housing, and 87% each with education and work.
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