Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences
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Laid-Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs

AI Summary. About 79% of workers hired after a tech-company layoff or termination found their new job within three months of starting their search, just below the 83% share among all laid-off workers, according to a survey of new hires. Nearly four in ten previously laid-off tech workers found jobs in under a month.

Sarah Chaney Cambon and Gwynn Guilford Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
January 5, 2023
Is Database:
Database

According to recent surveys, recently laid-off tech workers are quickly finding new employment with 40% accepting a new position within 30 days. @WSJ

Do laid-off tech workers find new jobs quickly?

Core argument: About 79% of workers hired after a tech-company layoff or termination found their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires.

About 79% of workers recently hired after a tech-company layoff or termination landed their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires. That was just below the 83% share of all laid-off workers who were re-employed in the same time frame. Nearly four in ten previously laid-off tech workers found jobs less than a month after they began searching, ZipRecruiter found in the survey.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. About 79% of workers hired after a tech-company layoff or termination found their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires.
  2. The 79% re-employment share for laid-off tech workers was just below the 83% share of all laid-off workers re-employed within the same three-month window, ZipRecruiter found.
  3. Nearly 40% of previously laid-off tech workers landed jobs less than a month after beginning their search, according to the ZipRecruiter survey.

According to recent surveys, recently laid-off tech workers are quickly finding new employment with 40% accepting a new position within 30 days.

Description automatically generated

“…About 79% of workers recently hired after a tech-company layoff or termination landed their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires. That was just below the 83% share of all laid-off workers who were re-employed in the same time frame. Nearly four in ten previously laid-off tech workers found jobs less than a month after they began searching, ZipRecruiter found in the survey…”

Sarah Chaney Cambon and Gwynn Guilford, “Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs,” Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/laid-off-tech-workers-quickly-find-new-jobs-11672097730

Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs

Most laid off tech workers are finding jobs shortly after beginning their search, a new survey shows, as employers continue to scoop up workers in a tight labor market.

About 79% of workers recently hired after a tech-company layoff or termination landed their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires. That was just below the 83% share of all laid-off workers who were re-employed in the same time frame.

Nearly four in 10 previously laid off tech workers found jobs less than a month after they began searching, ZipRecruiter found in the survey.

“Despite the widespread layoffs, hiring freezes, and cost-cutting taking place in tech, many tech workers are finding reemployment remarkably quickly,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “They’re still the most sought-after workers with the most in-demand skills.”

https://www.staging4.edwardconard.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/image002-24.png

Job openings across the economy—at 10.3 million—are down from record highs but far exceed the number of unemployed Americans, providing opportunities for workers who lose their jobs and those who choose to seek another.

Workers previously employed in other industries, including entertainment and leisure, transportation and delivery, and manufacturing, also found new jobs quickly, the ZipRecruiter data showed.

The job market for tech workers is slowing as the broader economy falters under the pressure of Federal Reserve interest rate increases and high inflation. Layoffs and hiring freezes are occurring at startups and large tech companies such as Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. that hired aggressively early on in the pandemic. The cuts are hitting workers in tech jobs—such as software engineers—and other corporate roles including recruiters.

Still, tech firms making cuts are outnumbered by those that are hiring.

A smaller share of tech workers is spending long periods searching for work after a layoff. About 5% of laid off tech workers who found jobs from April to October had spent more than six months hunting for work, down from 26% of those hired between August 2021 and February 2022, ZipRecruiter said.

Wen Huber, age 23, was laid off from a videographer job at a real estate tech startup in late July. Mr. Huber, who lives near Seattle, thought it would take awhile to land a new position, given he didn’t have a four-year-college degree and many other job seekers were flooding the tech job market.

“When I was applying, to be honest, I didn’t feel very confident because there was such an influx of competition with a lot of people also being laid off,” he said.

Mr. Huber had built up a savings buffer, allowing him to be more selective in his job hunt as he sought to pivot into social media. He documented his unemployment experience in a series of videos on LinkedIn. The videos helped him land an interview—and ultimately an offer—for a social media manager job at a software startup, Mr. Huber said. He started in September.

“I was surprised at how quickly I was able to secure an offer for a job,” he said.

Short job searches in tech have become slightly less common as the labor market slows from earlier in the year. Among people who recently lost a job and worked in tech previously, 37% found a new position within one month of starting to look, according to ZipRecruiter. That compared with 50% in February’s survey.

“We’ve definitely seen a slowdown in hiring, but the reason why is that the job creation level was beyond record highs because of the slingshot effect of the pandemic,” said Ryan Sutton, district president at Robert Half, a global recruitment firm. “From August 2020 to May 2022, it wasn’t red-hot. It was lava-hot.”

Usually when mass layoffs hit, there is an influx of tech candidates contacting his company to help with their job search, Mr. Sutton said.

“We have not seen it yet—we haven’t seen more candidates coming to market,” he said. “Our recruiters are having to hunt and hustle just as much as they had to in the last couple of years.”

Client firms in tech also haven’t mentioned any plans to cut jobs, Mr. Sutton said.

About 74% of workers recently hired after losing or leaving a job at a tech company remained in the industry, according to ZipRecruiter. Others who previously worked at tech companies switched to firms in industries such as retail, financial services and healthcare in the six months ending in mid-October.

Pinnacol Assurance, a 650-person workers’ compensation insurer, saw a 46% increase in job candidates from big tech companies including Meta, Microsoft and Twitter between September and mid-December, said Tim Johnson, the company’s chief human resources officer.

The influx of applicants has helped Pinnacol fill tech-related roles such as data scientist, machine-learning engineer and cloud architect in recent months. In mid-December, Pinnacol’s recruiting team made an offer to a job candidate from Google, Mr. Johnson said.

Ayanna Chapman, 42, started a systems-engineering job job at Pinnacol overseeing its computer systems in mid-November after she was laid off from another systems-engineer position this spring.

A generous severance package allowed her to take several months to freshen skills and study for certifications including in the Python programming language. When the Atlanta–area resident began looking for work in the second week of October, recruiters quickly reached out with interview opportunities, she said.

Ms. Chapman was keen on finding a job with stability and thought Pinnacol would fit. She received an offer from the Denver–based company about two weeks after beginning the interview process, much faster than previous experiences, she said.

“I literally cried tears of joy like, ‘Oh, my God, I got the job. I can’t believe it,’” Ms. Chapman said.

Employers broadly are responding to job candidates fast, likely for fear of losing them in a competitive market with a historically low jobless rate of 3.7%. Nine in 10 ZipRecruiter survey respondents said they heard back from a recruiter or hiring manager within a week of applying for a job.

ZipRecruiter’s most recent survey was drawn from 2,550 U.S. residents who had started a new job within the six months ending in mid-October. The data align with other job-market figures that signal the hot labor market is cooling.

Of the ZipRecruiter survey respondents who said they previously worked in tech, most of them likely worked for tech companies regardless of their occupation, Ms. Pollak said. In other words, a recruiter at Amazon would likely be classified as a tech-industry worker in the survey. But a data scientist at Home Depot would be a retail-industry worker.

Separate labor-market figures suggest employers across industries are still seeking to hire tech workers, though less so than earlier in the pandemic. Postings on job-site Indeed for tech occupations are still well above prepandemic levels, but have fallen steeply over the past year.

Software developer job ads on Indeed are down 34% from a year earlier, and ads for mathematics roles—which include data scientists—are 28% lower. Overall postings are down 7.7% from a year ago.

“With tech workers, it’s a much bigger pullback,” said Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “It’s still above prepandemic levels, but if the current trend keeps up, I don’t imagine that talking point will be true anymore at some point next year.”

The uncertain economic outlook is likely weighing on employers’ appetite for white-collar workers, since they tend to base hiring plans for higher-paid workers on the longer-term business outlook, said Mr. Bunker. By contrast, firms usually gear hiring for waiters, deliverers and other lower-paid jobs according to immediate business needs, he said.

Many companies with among the highest shares of new tech job postings on Indeed in late November were in industries such as consulting, financial services and aerospace.

“For tech jobs, it is still a relatively healthy economic climate and relatively healthy labor market,” said Scott Dobroski, Indeed career expert. “A lot of bright spots for tech workers currently lie outside of traditional tech companies.”

U.S. aerospace companies cut more than 100,000 workers during the pandemic, but have been hiring back at a fast clip and struggling for a year with staffing shortages that have crimped supply chains.

Raytheon Technologies Corp. CEO Greg Hayes said during the summer he was optimistic that layoffs among tech companies would start to ease his own hiring challenges. There are signs that is happening.

“We are starting to see an uptick in interest from the tech layoffs,” said Mike Dippold, chief financial officer of Leonardo DRS Inc., which is based Arlington, Va.

Mr. Dippold said the defense-sensor specialist, like many peers, still had more open positions than it would like, but the staffing situation was starting to improve.

  • Unemployment/Participation
  • GDP
    • Business Cycle
  • Workforce
Previous articleJanuary 5, 2023Chinese Researchers Claim to Find Way to Break Encryption Using Quantum ComputersChinese computer scientists claimed to have used quantum computing to break the RSA algorithm that underpins the vast majority of online encryption. However, the algorithm may not be fast enough to be relevant. @FTNext articleJanuary 5, 2023Capital Allocation: Results, Analysis and AssessmentCapital expenditures net of depreciation for the Russell 3000 peaked at 6.9% of sales in 1988, but has since declined to 1.8% on average in the past decade, highlighting a shift in capital allocation strategies.
Showing 96 database articles primarily about Unemployment/Participation

On Europe’s Economy, Let’s Ditch The Lazy Stereotypes

AI Summary. Prime-age adults aged 25–54 and older workers aged 55–64 have higher employment rates in Europe than in the US, while US youth employment is higher because Europeans spend longer in education. The share of young people not in education, employment or training is higher in the US than in Europe.

Chris Giles Financial Times
Date Posted:
September 10, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Despite Europe’s high social spending relative to the US, Chris Giles notes that prime-age adult (25–54) labor force participation in the Eurozone has overtaken that of the US, and there has been a dramatic convergence in the LFP of older workers.

Do Europeans work less than Americans?

Core argument: Prime-age adults aged 25–54 in Europe are more likely to be employed than their US counterparts, whether measured with EU or Eurozone data, and Europeans aged 55–64 also have higher employment rates than Americans.

It does not matter whether you use EU or Eurozone data, prime-age adults (between 25 and 54) in Europe are more likely to be in work than those in the US. Older people (between 55 and 64) also have higher employment rates in Europe. Younger people (between 15 and 24) are more likely to have a job in the US, but that results from Europeans educating themselves for longer. The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training is higher in the US than in Europe. So welfare is not stopping work. More than that, the higher-welfare north of Europe tends to have higher employment rates than the south, although there is convergence within the Eurozone. Spain, in particular, has enjoyed rapid improvements.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Prime-age adults aged 25–54 in Europe are more likely to be employed than their US counterparts, whether measured with EU or Eurozone data, and Europeans aged 55–64 also have higher employment rates than Americans.
  2. Young people aged 15–24 are more likely to have a job in the US than in Europe, but that gap results from Europeans spending longer in education, and the share not in education, employment or training is higher in the US.
  3. The higher-welfare north of Europe tends to have higher employment rates than the south, with convergence within the Eurozone and rapid improvement in Spain.

Related Articles:

  • Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans? — About half of the 1990s gap between American and European hours worked had reversed by the end of the 2010s. The authors estimate US hours per person declined after the 2000s because of rising benefits for the non-employed—especially health benefits like Medicaid—while non-US hours rose with higher wages and lower work costs.
  • The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — A European Union competitiveness report attributes the EU's labour productivity growth gap with the US largely to weaker activity in information and communications technology and large-scale digital services; excluding main ICT sectors, EU productivity was broadly at par with the US from 2000-2019. It estimates Europe's investment share must rise about 5 percentage points of GDP.
  • Ed Conard Debates Furman On “The Expected Value of Risk Taking” — A debate on U.S. fiscal policy argues that spending increases, rather than the tax increases needed to fund them, slow growth, and that higher taxes would reduce the expected value of America's innovative risk-taking. The argument holds that cutting debt below 100% of GDP is critical.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Comparisons
    • Europe USA Relative Performance
  • GDP
    • Growth
  • Workforce

The Jobs Apocalypse Is Postponed. An AI Jobs Boom Is Here

AI Summary. Employment in five industries tied to the data-centre build-out, including electrical contracting and equipment manufacturing, has risen roughly 320,000 above what broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest. Engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists have added about 730,000 jobs above the trend for professional employment overall.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
September 9, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

The Economist estimates that so far the AI boom has created ~1mm new jobs in the US, exceeding their estimate of ~200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023.

Is the AI build-out adding jobs above trend?

Core argument: Employment in five industries tied to the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing, has risen by roughly 320,000 more since 2023 than broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest.

[We] tracked five industries at the heart of the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing. Since 2023 employment in them has risen by roughly 320,000 more than broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest. Not all of those jobs owe their existence to AI—grid upgrades and other factory building matters too. [We also] tracked employment in professional occupations closest to the AI boom—engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists—and compared their growth since 2022 with professional employment overall. These roles have added roughly 730,000 jobs above trend in recent years. AI will not have created every single one of them. But it has almost certainly created quite a few.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Employment in five industries tied to the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing, has risen by roughly 320,000 more since 2023 than broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest.
  2. Professional occupations closest to the AI boom—engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists—have added roughly 730,000 jobs above the trend for professional employment overall since 2022.
  3. Not all of these above-trend gains are attributable to AI, since grid upgrades and other factory building also matter, though AI has almost certainly created quite a few of them.

Related Articles:

  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 after four decades of expansion, implying the first sustained negative growth in relative demand for college-educated labor. The authors estimate that weaker wage growth in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence accounts for roughly 28% of that decline, though the patterns are not causal.
  • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence — Employment for workers aged 22–25 in the occupations most exposed to artificial intelligence has declined roughly 18pp relative to less-exposed peers, with no comparable decline in other age groups. The authors find this operates mainly through reduced hiring, concentrated where AI substitutes for human tasks rather than complements them.
  • Looking for the Ladder — The article argues that the hiring downturn in occupations most exposed to generative AI reflects interest-rate sensitivity rather than AI itself, since roughly 38% of workers in the most AI-exposed quintile work in information, finance and insurance, and professional and technical services, versus under 2% in the least-exposed quintile.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment
  • Workforce

Americans Without College Degrees Are Having One of the Best Job Markets in Years

AI Summary. The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 without a college degree has rarely been lower in the past two decades, and relative to their own historical ranges the job market looks much better for blue-collar and manual-service workers. Degree-holders still face lower unemployment rates overall.

Theo Francis and Ray Smith Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

In 2026, the 12-month moving-average unemployment for college-educated 22–34-year-olds is above its post-2003 mean, while the rate for non-college peers is historically low. Prime-age college grads still have lower unemployment than those with no degree.

Is the job market unusually strong for workers without college degrees?

Core argument: The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.

The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades. To gauge how the job market has shifted for each cohort, [Gad Levanon, Burning Glass’s chief economist] compared current unemployment rates for the different groups with their own range of unemployment rates since 2003. The analysis included data through July. By that measure, the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers, including those in construction and on manufacturing lines, and manual-service workers. It is [however] still easier to find a job with a college degree. The unemployment rate for degree-holders in their prime working years—ages 25 to 54—averaged 2.7% for the 12 months ending in July - well below the 3.6% rate for workers with just some college education, and 4.7% for people with a high-school diploma only.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.
  2. Burning Glass chief economist Gad Levanon compared each cohort's current unemployment rate against its own range since 2003, and by that measure the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers in construction and manufacturing and for manual-service workers.
  3. College graduates ages 25 to 54 averaged a 2.7% unemployment rate for the 12 months ending in July, below the 3.6% rate for workers with some college education and 4.7% for those with only a high-school diploma.

Related Articles:

  • College Grads Struggle to Find Jobs. Non-Grads Are Giving Up — The narrowing gap in unemployment rates between young college graduates and non-graduates appears driven mainly by non-graduates dropping out of the labor force rather than by diplomas losing value, since people not seeking work aren't counted as unemployed. The share of young non-graduates employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels.
  • To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First — 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring at that low level earn an average of nearly $30 an hour and two-thirds are employed, compared with about $20 and fewer than half employed in Britain. The author argues this reflects stronger economic growth rather than vocational education policy.
  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 after four decades of expansion, implying the first sustained negative growth in relative demand for college-educated labor. The authors estimate that weaker wage growth in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence accounts for roughly 28% of that decline, though the patterns are not causal.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • College
      • K-12

What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?

AI Summary. The trend unemployment rate is estimated to have fallen from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024, a decline of about 3.3 percentage points, with a little more than half attributed to changes in workforce composition. Rising educational attainment is the largest compositional factor, lowering the trend by about 1 percentage point.

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Greeshma Avaradi and Taerin Kim Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Date Posted:
August 26, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Hornstein et al find that about half of the ~3pp drop in the trend unemployment rate since 1976 is due to compositional change in the work force towards lower unemployment “types ” – in particular, older and more educated workers.

Why has the trend unemployment rate declined over recent decades?

Core argument: The estimated trend unemployment rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024, a decline of about 3.3 percentage points, with changes in workforce composition accounting for a little more than half of it.

We find that the trend unemployment rate declined from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024 [Figure 1]. Roughly half of that decline reflects compositional change. Figure 2 separates the estimated cumulative change in the annual unemployment trend since 1976 into its components. The total decline was about 3.3 percentage points by 2024. Changes in workforce composition account for a little more than half of that decline. Rising educational attainment is the single largest compositional force, lowering the trend about 1pp. Figure 4 plots estimated education shares for entering cohorts of women, and these patterns are similar for male cohorts (not shown). The figure shows a steady long-run fall in the share of new female cohorts with less than high school education and a steady rise in the share with some college or a college degree. [Returning to Figure 2], changes in group-specific LFP rate trends contribute only ~0.3 pp. The remaining decline, a bit under 1pp, comes from lower group-specific trend unemployment.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The estimated trend unemployment rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024, a decline of about 3.3 percentage points, with changes in workforce composition accounting for a little more than half of it.
  2. Rising educational attainment is the single largest compositional force in the decomposition, lowering the trend unemployment rate by about 1 percentage point.
  3. Changes in group-specific labor force participation rate trends contribute about 0.3 percentage point of the decline, while lower group-specific trend unemployment accounts for a bit under 1 percentage point.

Related Articles:

  • Global Views: They’re Not Hiking — Estimated underlying trend job growth slowed to about 5k, below the estimated 50k breakeven pace, so similar readings would likely reverse part of the unemployment rate's decline from 4.5% to 4.1%. The authors argue that decline reflects lower labor force participation rather than higher employment, with wage growth still weak.
  • Labor Force Participation Is High If You Measure It Right — The headline labor force participation rate — the share of people 16 and older working or looking for work — is a limited gauge of labor market health because participation varies greatly by age. Aging baby boomers and the addition of nearly 1.7m Americans 65 and older to population estimates add distortion.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Workforce

College Grads Struggle to Find Jobs. Non-Grads Are Giving Up

AI Summary. The narrowing gap in unemployment rates between young college graduates and non-graduates appears driven mainly by non-graduates dropping out of the labor force rather than by diplomas losing value, since people not seeking work aren't counted as unemployed. The share of young non-graduates employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels.

Justin Fox Bloomberg
Date Posted:
August 25, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Labor force participation is rising for American college graduates aged 25–29, and is now at 89.4% – above its pre-pandemic level. Participation among non-college members of that age cohort is falling; at 78.7%, it is now below its pre-pandemic level.

Is the narrowing unemployment gap driven by non-graduates leaving the workforce?

Core argument: The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.

The narrowing of [the unemployment gap btw college and non-college workers] in recent years has lent support to narratives that college diplomas are losing their value amid the rise of large language models, the purported return of blue-collar work, and other job market changes. But while it may well be that diplomas have lost value, the recent shrinking of the young-adult education-unemployment gap seems to be driven mainly by a different phenomenon. Growing numbers of young adults without college degrees simply aren’t trying to find work and thus aren’t counted in unemployment calculations. The employment-population ratio for young college grads is not far off from where it was just before the pandemic and seems as if it might be headed upward again after a sharp drop in 2023 and 2024, for non-grads it is 1.7 percentage points lower than before the pandemic and clearly trending downward.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.
  2. The narrowing unemployment gap between young college and non-college workers appears driven mainly by growing numbers of non-graduates who are not seeking work and therefore are not counted as unemployed.
  3. The employment-population ratio for young college graduates fell sharply in 2023 and 2024 and appears as if it might be headed upward again.

Related Articles:

  • Labor Force Participation Is High If You Measure It Right — The headline labor force participation rate — the share of people 16 and older working or looking for work — is a limited gauge of labor market health because participation varies greatly by age. Aging baby boomers and the addition of nearly 1.7m Americans 65 and older to population estimates add distortion.
  • How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders — Between 1976 and 2024 the trend labor force participation rate fell 10.1 percentage points for men and rose 8.2 points for women. Population aging lowered participation by about 4 points for each gender and rising education raised it (+6 for women, +3 for men), but the divergence is dominated by participation trends within age-gender groups.
  • AI, Immigration, and Collapsing Labor Force Participation — As labor force participation falls, a shrinking group of workers generates the income, taxes, and innovation supporting a growing number of non-workers, leaving the economy more fragile because labor shocks are concentrated among fewer participants. Labor scarcity raises the return on automation, robotics, and software, making growth depend on productivity rather than participation.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Politics
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • College
      • K-12
    • Family/Marriage

The Big Exceptions To The American Manufacturing Jobs Decline

AI Summary. Aerospace leads all US manufacturing industries in job growth and posted the largest manufacturing trade surplus at $116.7bn, supported by strong commercial airline demand and a record-high order backlog. Electrical equipment and components employment has also grown, with dedicated data centers more than doubling their real consumption of electrical equipment and components.

Jiaxin (Jason) He Agglomerations
Date Posted:
July 24, 2026
Is Database:
Database

The US has lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs since their recent peak in Q2 2023. Two subsectors have seen strong job growth: aerospace manufacturing added 43,000 jobs, and electrical equipment, cable and battery manufacturing added 36,200.

Which US manufacturing industries are adding jobs despite the overall decline?

Core argument: Aerospace leads all U.S. manufacturing industries in job growth since 2023 and posted the largest nominal trade surplus of any manufacturing industry last year, at $116.7 billion.

Aerospace leads all manufacturing industries in job growth since 2023. Last year it also posted the largest nominal trade surplus of any manufacturing industry, at $116.7 billion. Driving the growth has been strong commercial and passenger airline demand, including a record-high order backlog. Boeing, the world’s leading airplane manufacturer, returned to profitability and high delivery volumes in 2025. The employment surge in the electrical components subsector tells a different story. It owes its strength to two industries: electrical equipment manufacturing and batteries, wires, cables, and miscellaneous electrical components. These are among the industries that bore the brunt of the China Shock and suffered acute decline in the 2000s. Green energy and electric vehicles likely contributed to their initial recovery, raising demand for batteries and electrical infrastructure. But their continued growth even after the cancellation of EV subsidies in 2025 points to a different, potent, and entirely unsurprising driver: Artificial Intelligence. AI’s manufacturing footprint runs the length of the supply chain. Dedicated data centers more than doubled their real consumption of electrical equipment and components from 2019 to 2024.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Aerospace leads all U.S. manufacturing industries in job growth since 2023 and posted the largest nominal trade surplus of any manufacturing industry last year, at $116.7 billion.
  2. Strong commercial and passenger airline demand, including a record-high order backlog, has driven aerospace growth, and Boeing returned to profitability and high delivery volumes in 2025.
  3. Employment growth in electrical equipment manufacturing and in batteries, wires, cables, and miscellaneous electrical components continued after the 2025 cancellation of EV subsidies, pointing to artificial intelligence as a driver, with dedicated data centers more than doubling real consumption of electrical equipment and components from 2019 to 2024.

Related Articles:

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  • Midyear Outlook — Tech-related investment rose 30% from year-ago levels while all other capital spending fell, a divergence the author argues reflects the AI boom bidding away scarce physical inputs such as electricians, grid capacity, metals, and construction labor. With hyperscalers' free cash flow now exhausted, over 80% of projected capital spending in coming years will require external financing.
  • What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds — The US imports roughly 40% of the goods it consumes, directly and through imported inputs, with labor-intensive goods like apparel almost entirely imported. The authors argue America's main comparative disadvantage is its cost of production, driven mainly by labor costs, with real estate costs and a strong dollar also contributing.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Productivity
    • Investment
  • Workforce
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