Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Jim Tankersley New York Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
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A preliminary analysis by the Penn Wharton Budget Model suggests Warren’s Wealth Tax could reduce annual economic growth from 1.5% to 1.3% over a decade, a slowdown 3x that of Trump’s tax cuts.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model's preliminary analysis suggests that Warren's Wealth Tax could reduce annual economic growth from an average of 1.5% to just over 1.3% over a decade if the tax revenue is used to reduce federal debt. This projected slowdown is three times the effect of Trump's tax cuts, which were estimated to increase growth by 0.06 percentage points annually. The analysis does not account for potential growth benefits from government spending programs funded by the tax, such as universal child care and increased education funding. While the tax aims to generate significant federal revenue, its impact on GDP could be substantial, highlighting a trade-off between revenue generation and economic growth.

FYI Penn ran Warren's Wealth Tax though the Penn Wharton Model".... The preliminary projection from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, which will be unveiled on Thursday in Philadelphia, is the first attempt by an independent budget group to forecast the economic effects of the tax that has become a centerpiece of Ms. Warren’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. The assessment found that if the tax raised as much new federal revenue as Ms. Warren intends, and if the proceeds went toward reducing the federal debt, annual economic growth would slow from an average of 1.5 percent to an average of just over 1.3 percent over a decade. To put the finding in context: Penn Wharton estimated in 2017 that President Trump’s tax cut would increase economic growth by roughly 0.06 percentage points per year over a decade, an effect that was much smaller than White House officials predicted. Its estimate of Ms. Warren’s policy implies the wealth tax would have an effect that is three times as large as the Trump tax cuts — but in the opposite direction. Economists who favor Ms. Warren’s plan say the analysis does not accurately account for the benefits to economic growth from the new government spending programs she would fund with the tax revenue, including universal child care, increased education funding and student loan forgiveness...."
Jim Tankersley, "Warren Wealth Tax Could Slow Economy, Early Analysis Finds,"New York Times, November 14, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/14/business/warren-wealth-tax-economy.html

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