Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Inflation-adjusted median income growth for 25–54-year-old workers declined and has hovered near decade lows, with a more marked slowdown among those aged 25–29. The authors suggest this may reflect a reduced pace of job-to-job transitions, seen in lower hiring and quit rates.

Chris Wheat and George Eckerd JP Morgan
Date Posted:

A JPM analysis finds real income growth for prime-age (25–54) American workers fell to 2% y/y in September. Nominal growth is ~ at its pre-pandemic pace, “but real purchasing power gains are at a relatively low level” given inflation.

Is slower job switching holding down real income growth for young workers?

Core argument: Median inflation-adjusted income growth among 25–54-year-olds declined in early 2025 and remained near decade-long lows through September.

Median income growth among 25–54-year-olds declined in early 2025 and remained low through September, hovering near decade-long lows after adjusting for inflation. Young people in our sample—workers aged 25–29—have experienced a more marked slowdown in income gains, potentially a function of the reduced pace of job-to-job transitions across the economy, reflected in lower hiring and quit rates. Persistently high increases in consumer prices have been a real headwind to purchasing power in recent years. Inflation hasn’t yet fallen to the Fed’s two percent objective, meaning that the solid recent rate of nominal income gains corresponds to nearly the weakest gains in real purchasing power seen over the past decade.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Median inflation-adjusted income growth among 25–54-year-olds declined in early 2025 and remained near decade-long lows through September.
  2. Workers aged 25–29 have experienced a more marked slowdown in income gains, potentially a function of a reduced pace of job-to-job transitions reflected in lower hiring and quit rates.
  3. With inflation still above the Federal Reserve's two percent objective, solid nominal income gains correspond to nearly the weakest real purchasing-power gains of the past decade.

Related Articles:

  • Jobless Growth — Labor demand growth may be too weak to keep pace with even modest labor supply growth: the labor market is somewhat weaker than before the pandemic, job growth has turned negative outside healthcare, and firms are focused on using AI to cut labor costs. Economists estimate most employment losses in routine manual occupations since the 1970s occurred during recessions.
  • Millions of Workers Are Left Out of the ‘Low-Hire, Low-Fire’ US Job Market — Economists expect anemic payroll growth with unemployment holding at 4.3%, a relatively low rate that masks workers stuck in unwanted jobs or underemployed. Goldman Sachs economists say labor market churn—the flow into and out of jobs—has fallen well below pre-Covid levels, and unemployment among 16-to-24-year-olds reached 10.5%.
  • A New Era of Higher Inflation Risks — The authors argue inflation's baseline is now higher than pre-pandemic, with 2% acting more as a floor than a ceiling, noting disinflation has largely stalled and core inflation has run above target on a six-month annualized basis for five years. They expect a structurally wider range of inflation outcomes, skewed to the upside and centered higher than in the 2010s.
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