Edward Conard

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  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
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AI Summary. Data center power demand is projected to grow 15% annually through 2030, lifting data centers to 8% of US power demand from about 3% and raising overall US power demand growth to 2.4% a year versus roughly 0% over the prior decade.

Carly Davenport, Brian Singer, Et al. Goldman Sachs
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

A @GoldmanSachs analysis argues US power demand will grow at 2.4%/year through 2030 versus 0% over the last decade. They forecast data centers will be 8% of power demand by 2030 from 3% currently.

Will data center growth end a decade of flat US power demand?

Core argument: Data center power demand is forecast to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2023–2030, lifting data centers to 8% of total US power demand by 2030 from about 3% currently.

We forecast a 15% CAGR in data center power demand from 2023-2030, driving data centers to make up 8% of total US power demand by 2030 from about 3% currently. We now see a 2.4% CAGR in US power demand growth through 2030 from 2022 levels vs. ~0% over the last decade. Of the 2.4%, about 90 bps of that is tied to data centers. We estimate about 47 GW of incremental power generation capacity will be required to support US data center power demand growth cumulatively through 2030, met with about 60% gas and 40% renewable sources. We expect this to drive about $50 bn of capital investment in US power generation capacity cumulatively through 2030.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Data center power demand is forecast to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2023–2030, lifting data centers to 8% of total US power demand by 2030 from about 3% currently.
  2. US power demand is projected to grow at a 2.4% CAGR through 2030 from 2022 levels, versus roughly 0% over the prior decade, with about 90 bps of that tied to data centers.
  3. About 47 GW of incremental US generation capacity is estimated as required cumulatively through 2030 to support data center demand growth, met with about 60% gas and 40% renewables, driving about $50 bn of capital investment.

Related Articles:

  • Electricity 2024 — More than 8,000 data centers operate globally, with about 33% in the United States, 16% in Europe, and close to 10% in China. US data center electricity use is projected to rise from roughly 200 TWh in 2022, about 4% of US electricity demand, to almost 260 TWh, or 6% of total demand.
  • Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions — Under a scenario based on announced government pledges, global electricity demand is projected to grow 2.7% per year, more than doubling from just under 25,000 terawatt-hours to nearly 54,000 terawatt-hours by 2050. Hydrogen production via electrolysis and electric vehicles account for more than half of that projected growth.
  • The AI Transition One Year Later: On Track, but Macro Impact Still Several Years Off — Investment in AI hardware is projected to rise substantially as a precursor to integrating AI into business processes, with the investment cycle estimated to peak at 2–2½% of GDP and early signs visible among AI-enabling companies. The authors estimate generative AI could raise developed-market labor productivity growth by 1.5pp annually over a 10-year adoption period, roughly 15% cumulatively.
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