Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. An analysis estimating immigrants' effects on output, capital, tax revenue, and descendants finds admitting one 30-year-old without a high school diploma costs the federal government $20,000 over 10 years and over $130,000 over 30 years, while a college-educated 30-year-old yields over $200,000 and $1.6m respectively.

Daniel Di Martino Manhattan Institute
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

A 30-year-old immigrant without a high school degree yields net revenue losses of $20k to the federal government over 10 years and >$130k over 30 years, while his college-educated peer yields fiscal gains of $200k over 10 years and $1.6mm over 30 years.

How does an immigrant's education level change the fiscal impact?

Core argument: Admitting one college-educated 30-year-old immigrant yields a net federal gain of over $200,000 in the 10-year budget window and $1.6 million over 30 years, accounting for descendants, according to the analysis.

This updated analysis accounts for the economic impact of immigrants on Gross Domestic Product, the capital stock, and the resulting additional tax revenue. It also accounts for the fiscal and economic impact of the children and grandchildren of immigrants. [It does not account for inflation. All numbers from 2026 on are in nominal terms, mimicking CBO scoring]. Accounting for descendants, the total fiscal impact of admitting one immigrant who is 30 years old without a high school diploma is a loss of $20,000 to the federal government in the 10-year budget window and a loss of over $130,000 over the 30-year budget window. On the other hand, admitting one college-educated 30-year-old immigrant results in a net gain of over $200,000 in the 10-year window and a gain of $1.6 million in the 30-year budget window. Shifting visas toward high-skilled categories, wage-ranking H-1B visas, and recapturing unused employment-based green cards from previous years can reduce deficits while boosting GDP.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Admitting one college-educated 30-year-old immigrant yields a net federal gain of over $200,000 in the 10-year budget window and $1.6 million over 30 years, accounting for descendants, according to the analysis.
  2. Admitting one 30-year-old immigrant without a high school diploma costs the federal government $20,000 over the 10-year window and over $130,000 over 30 years, including the fiscal impact of children and grandchildren.
  3. The analysis finds that shifting visas toward high-skilled categories, wage-ranking H-1B visas, and recapturing unused employment-based green cards from prior years can reduce deficits while boosting GDP.

Related Articles:

  • Two New Estimates of the Fiscal Impact of Immigration — Estimates of immigrants' fiscal impact depend heavily on the assumptions used: the lifetime fiscal impact of a 22-year-old high school dropout shifts from negative $315,000 under one set of assumptions to a small negative number under another. The author argues the accounting approach common in this literature understates immigrants' contribution to fiscal sustainability.
  • America’s — Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.
  • Immigration Mess: An Illustrated Guide — Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.
  • Did The Political Establishment Pave The Way For Trump and Farage? — An analysis finds that voters and mainstream politicians have long been broadly aligned on economic issues such as tax and spending, but diverge widely on sociocultural issues like immigration and criminal justice, with publics favoring more order and cultural integration while politicians lean toward more inclusive, permissive approaches.
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