“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
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Baby boomers and the housing market on the cusp of COVID-19

Marijn Bolhuis Center for Economic and Policy Research

Date Posted:: April 2, 2020
Is Database:: Database

A 1% lower demographic demand shock in a neighborhood results in an 11% relative decline in home sales within the same county

As baby boomers increasingly downsize, over 25% of US homes they occupy may enter the market in the next two decades, potentially impacting their savings as they retire. Since 2012, homes with more than four bedrooms have seen price growth lag by about 1% annually compared to smaller homes within the same zip code. A 1% lower demographic demand shock in a neighborhood results in an 11% relative decline in home sales within the same county. Americans over 55 hold nearly 60% of total housing wealth, with 60-75% of their assets in real estate. This demographic shift could significantly affect the $16.5tn in real estate wealth, especially as many middle-class Americans approach retirement. The pandemic adds uncertainty, potentially altering these trends.

Ed this ~ echos your questions about NYC real estate, who is going to buy all of these houses and at what price?
"...In the next two decades, as more and more baby boomers look to downsize, more than a quarter of the US homes occupied by their owner(s) will likely hit the market (Romem 2019). If the trends we document continue, the under performance of these homes on the housing market may put increased pressure on baby boomers’ savings, at the exact time that they move into retirement....Not only are large housing market corrections already underway, the combination of lifecycle effects and demographic developments means that these adjustments are likely to continue over the next decade....We combine neighbourhood-level housing market data from Zillow with detailed census information on demographics and housing structures. Figure 3 shows that since 2012 the price growth of houses with more than four bedrooms has lagged the price increases of one- and two-bedroom homes by about one percentage point per year (within the same zip code).... If the trends we document persist, they will have significant macroeconomic effects. The asset position of the middle class tends to move closely with home prices (Kuhn et al. forthcoming), and older Americans are central to these trends....We find that the homes of baby boomers have not only experienced slower price growth but have also become significantly harder to sell. Within the same county, a 1% lower demographic demand shock in a neighbourhood leads to an 11% relative decline in home sales.... Currently, Americans over the age of 55 hold almost 60% of total housing wealth, with 60-75% of their assets held in real estate.... Asset-wise, the middle class is almost completely dependent on housing, with retirement portfolios a distant second. Since many Americans in the middle class will retire within the next few years, they stand to exert demographic pressure on their neighbourhoods. This pressure might significantly affect the $16.5 trillion in real estate wealth held in these households, precisely when they will need those assets most. Covid-19 presents something of a wildcard in this context. The pandemic can reverse or accelerate these adjustments, and it is too early to tell what the wider effects of the virus may be...."
Baby boomers and the housing market on the cusp of COVID-19: Extended Excerpt Image 1

Marijn Bolhuis, Judd Cramer, "Baby boomers and the housing market on the cusp of COVID-19," Center for Economic and Policy Research, April 2, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/baby-boomers-and-housing-market-cusp-covid-19

3% vs. 60%

Torsten Sløk Apollo

Date Posted:: April 8, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Torsten Sløk notes the direct lending market is ~$2T or 3% of household and non-financial debt outstanding. To provide context, he shows that in 2006, on the eve of the crisis, mortgages accounted for ~60% of such debt.

The direct lending market is roughly $2 trillion, or about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses. By comparison, mortgages accounted for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Direct lending represents a small but growing alternative to traditional bank financing for businesses and households.
The mortgage market’s dominance has shifted dramatically since the 2006 housing peak, reducing systemic risk concentration.
Non-bank lenders now capture meaningful market share in credit provision across the economy.

Top 10% of Earners Drive a Growing Share of US Consumer Spending

Jonnelle Marte Bloomberg

Date Posted:: September 17, 2025
Is Database:: Database

Mark Zandi finds Americans in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of consumer spending in Q2, the highest level since 1989.

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending in the second quarter, up from 48.5% in the first quarter, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. In contrast, the bottom 80% of the income distribution, or consumers making less than roughly $175,000 a year, have seen their spending merely keep pace with inflation since the pandemic.

Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire

Jonathon Sine Cogitations

Date Posted:: September 2, 2025
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Jonathon Sine argues China “is moving beyond its breakneck industrial prime, facing similar dilemmas to those America confronted in the 1960s and 70s.” The ratio of science/engineering to humanities undergraduate majors is 2:1 in both the PRC and US.

Dan Wang’s “big idea” [is] “China is an engineering state, building big at breakneck speed, in contrast to the United States’ lawyerly society, blocking everything it can, good and bad.” I re-group US college majors according to Chinese disciplines to allow for rough comparison. Surprisingly, the ratio of science/engineering to humanities/social sciences is 2:1, the same as in China (if one groups management with science/engineering, as I also do for China). As with China today, America’s breakneck building phase was decidedly winding down by the 1960s. Urbanization went from 40% in 1900 to 70% by 1960, and grew much more incrementally over the next 60 years to 85% by 2020. The country simply did not need to continue building dams, expressways, and energy production facilities at breakneck pace. It became much more a matter of maintaining and upgrading (which has not gone well, at least according to the American Society of Civil Engineers’ report card). The American [building/investment slowdown that started after the 1970s] may be more about structural economic shifts than lawyers.

How America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing The Rest Of The Economy

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: August 19, 2025
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

As AI-related investment has risen since 2023, residential and nonresidential investment have declined or flatlined. This may suggest that a relatively rate-insensitive AI buildout is crowding out more interest-sensitive forms of investment.

Something like a sixth of the 2% rise in American real GDP over the past year has come from investments in computer and communications equipment, including chips, and data centres. Add in the grid upgrades to power AI models, plus the intellectual-property value of the software itself, and one estimate puts the boom’s contribution to real GDP growth at 40%. The trouble is that the very sector powering so much of America’s economic growth is squeezing the rest of its output. Housebuilders, for instance, cannot afford to be blithe about higher borrowing costs. Data centres have also constrained the rest of the economy by keeping energy prices high. Average American electricity bills have risen by 7% so far in 2025, at least in part due to the extra strain data centres have put on the grid. Real consumption has flatlined since December. Housebuilding has slumped, as has non-AI business investment.

Is it Over?

Joseph Wang Fed Guy Blog

Date Posted:: August 18, 2025
Is Database:: Database

Following tepid reactions to the release of GTP-5, Joe Wang observes, “It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from.”

GPT-5 users widely expressed disappointment in the capabilities of the new release, which seemed in some ways a step back. This sentiment is reflected in benchmarks that show a modest improvement in capabilities since the significant improvement in version 4 released two years ago. In addition, the benchmarks suggest a broader convergence in the capabilities of AI models. Commentary suggests this could be due to inherent limitations in the LLM technology and exhaustion of new training data. AI is fascinating technology, but it may not justify the enormous sums spent in its pursuit. It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from. The entire macro landscape would look very different without the support of the AI boom.

US Households and Firms Are in Great Shape

Torsten Sløk Apollo

Date Posted:: March 31, 2025
Is Database:: Database

Torsten Sløk notes that US household and banking sector debt has fallen to its lowest level in decades as a % of GDP, while corporate leverage has moved sideways. “The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.”

Household sector leverage and banking sector leverage have declined significantly since 2008. Over the same period, federal government leverage has increased significantly, and corporate leverage has moved sideways. The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.

A 1% lower demographic demand shock in a neighborhood results in an 11% relative decline in home sales within the same county

Torsten Sløk notes the direct lending market is ~$2T or 3% of household and non-financial debt outstanding. To provide context, he shows that in 2006, on the eve of the crisis, mortgages accounted for ~60% of such debt.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Mark Zandi finds Americans in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of consumer spending in Q2, the highest level since 1989.

Related Articles:

Jonathon Sine argues China “is moving beyond its breakneck industrial prime, facing similar dilemmas to those America confronted in the 1960s and 70s.” The ratio of science/engineering to humanities undergraduate majors is 2:1 in both the PRC and US.

Related Articles:

As AI-related investment has risen since 2023, residential and nonresidential investment have declined or flatlined. This may suggest that a relatively rate-insensitive AI buildout is crowding out more interest-sensitive forms of investment.

Related Articles:

Following tepid reactions to the release of GTP-5, Joe Wang observes, “It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from.”

Related Articles:

​​Torsten Sløk notes that US household and banking sector debt has fallen to its lowest level in decades as a % of GDP, while corporate leverage has moved sideways. “The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.”

Related Articles:

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Torsten Sløk notes that US household and banking sector debt has fallen to its lowest level in decades as a % of GDP, while corporate leverage has moved sideways. “The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.”