Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Twenty-five US megacities and high-growth hubs, home to 96m people, have driven most job growth since the Great Recession and are projected to capture 60% of US job growth through 2030, while 54 trailing cities and 2,000 rural counties with 78m residents face older, shrinking workforces and higher unemployment.

Americana McKinsey Global Institute
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25 US cities have generated most job growth since the Great Recession, driven by high-growth industries & young, educated workforces. These cities could capture 60% of US job growth through 2030.

Is US job growth concentrating in a small number of cities?

Core argument: Twenty-five US megacities and high-growth hubs housing 96m people have driven most job growth since the Great Recession and could capture 60% of US job growth through 2030.

Since the Great Recession, 25 megacities and high-growth hubs, home to 96m people, have driven most US job growth, characterized by high-growth industries and young, educated workforces. These cities could capture 60% of US job growth through 2030. In contrast, 54 trailing cities and 2,000 rural counties, with 78m residents, face older, shrinking workforces and higher unemployment. The mixed middle, with 94m people, sees modest growth. Urban areas have grown over 10% since 2007, while rural counties grew by less than 1%. Geographic mobility is at historic lows, with immigration offsetting population losses in megacities. These trends highlight the widening economic disparities across US regions.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Twenty-five US megacities and high-growth hubs housing 96m people have driven most job growth since the Great Recession and could capture 60% of US job growth through 2030.
  2. Fifty-four trailing cities and 2,000 rural counties with 78m residents face older, shrinking workforces and higher unemployment, while a mixed middle of 94m people sees modest growth.
  3. US urban areas have grown over 10% since 2007 against under 1% for rural counties, with geographic mobility at historic lows and immigration offsetting population losses in megacities.

just an FYI some good data from McKinsey highlights the continued "Balkanization" of the US productivity on geographic lines

".... Our analysis of 315 cities and more than 3,000 counties shows that the United States is a mosaic of local economies with widening gaps between them. Twenty five megacities and high-growth hubs, where 96 million people live, have generated most of the nation’s job growth since the Great Recession. These are the nation’s most dynamic places, with high-growth industries, many high-wage jobs, and young, educated workers but notable inequality. By contrast, 54 trailing cities and roughly 2,000 rural counties, collectively home to 78 million people, have older and shrinking workforces, higher unemployment,and lower educational attainment. Between these extremes are thriving niche cities and a larger “mixed middle” with modest economic growth; 94 million people live in these segments..... The same 25 cities and peripheries that led the post-recession recovery could capture 60 percent of US job growth through2030. The mixed middle and trailing cities are positioned for modest job gains, but rural counties could see a decade of flat or even negative net job growth. These shifts are occurring when geographic mobility is at historic lows....Population growth has also tilted toward urban America. High-growth hubs, small powerhouses, and silver cities have grown by more than 10 percent since 2007, and most urban peripheries are also growing. Residents have been moving out of megacities, stable cities, America’s makers, and trailing cities, but immigration has more than offset the losses in megacities and stable cities. By contrast, populations in rural Americana counties grew by less than 1 percent—and distressed Americana is shrinking......

Susan Lund and Et al., "The future of work in America," McKinsey Global Institute, July 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-america-people-and-places-today-and-tomorrow

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