Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, September 30, 2026

AI Summary. Entrepreneurship by businesses with employees is flat or declining, including in AI-intensive information and professional services, where establishment entry has been flat or falling and young-firm employment in AI-exposed industries is falling. Applications for likely solo businesses with no employees rose steeply in those AI-intensive sectors, but self-employment as a main job is flat, suggesting side hustles.

Nathan Goldschlag Economic Innovation Group
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Nathan Goldschlag finds that available federal data do not yet establish that AI is boosting entrepreneurship. “Across different cuts of the data, there is no clear evidence of AI affecting entrepreneurship, either for likely employers or nonemployers.”

Is AI driving a boom in new employer businesses?

Core argument: Business applications likely to become employer businesses were flat in 2025 and began rising in 2026, with fewer applications of the kind having the highest chance of becoming an employer business.

Employer entrepreneurship is at best rising modestly, and at worst has been falling for several years already. The number of business applications likely to become an employer business was flat in 2025 and began rising in 2026. Fewer of those applications have been the kind that have the highest chance of becoming an employer. Nonemployer entrepreneurship, or “solopreneurship,” is likely rising, but not as the main job of the solopreneurs. These are probably side hustles. Likely nonemployer business applications rose significantly in 2025 and early 2026. But the share of workers claiming to be self-employed nonemployers in their main job — in other words, business owners with no employees — is flat (though noisy). AI-intensive sectors and industries are no exception. Establishment entry in AI-intensive sectors (information and professional services) has been flat or falling in recent years.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Business applications likely to become employer businesses were flat in 2025 and began rising in 2026, with fewer applications of the kind having the highest chance of becoming an employer business.
  2. Likely nonemployer business applications rose significantly in 2025 and early 2026, going vertical in the most AI-intensive sectors of information and professional services, while other sectors kept pace until early 2026 and then flattened.
  3. The share of workers reporting self-employment as nonemployers in their main job is flat, though noisy, including among workers in AI-exposed occupations in 2025 and early 2026.

Related Articles:

  • The Age Of The Solopreneur — A surge in US business formation is being driven by solo entrepreneurs, with growth in AI tool usage and in solopreneur activity in high-AI-adoption sectors suggesting artificial intelligence accounts for a meaningful portion of the increase. The authors argue AI is lowering barriers to starting and growing a business by expanding what one-person firms can do.
  • America Has Become An Entrepreneur’s Paradise — US growth in new-business applications is concentrated in professional services (up 25% over four years), retail (18%), and health care and social assistance (18%) rather than artificial-intelligence startups. The share of applications the Census Bureau deems likely to hire at least one employee has fallen to 30% from 38%.
  • Which Entrepreneurs Boost Productivity? — The authors find that a minority of entrepreneurs are "transformative" — generating disproportionate productivity gains, scoring high on IQ tests, being well-educated, and hiring research and development workers. They argue that economies with more such entrepreneurs and R&D workers sustain higher long-run productivity growth.

AI Summary. Polling finds voters across party lines support populist price caps: nearly three-quarters back capping child-care costs for working families and a government website directing consumers to discounted prescription drugs, and nearly four in five back capping credit-card interest rates at 10%.

Aaron Zitner Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

A WSJ survey finds bipartisan support for greater state intervention in markets: 96% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans favor requiring insurers to cover all services and medicines prescribed by doctors, while 78% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans favor capping credit card interest rates at 10%.

Do voters across party lines support capping prices and interest rates?

Core argument: Nearly 80% of voters support capping credit-card interest rates at 10%, a measure backed in Congress by progressive Bernie Sanders and conservative Josh Hawley, with President Trump calling for a similar measure.

Americans in both parties back government-imposed price caps and other market interventions to make life more affordable, suggesting new support for populist ideas that were once largely outside the political mainstream. Voters of all partisan stripes strongly support capping the cost of prescription drugs, child care and credit-card interest rates. Nearly three-quarters of voters support a cap on child-care costs for working families. Nearly four in five voters support capping credit-card interest rates at 10%. That’s drawn bipartisan support in Congress, with progressive Bernie Sanders and conservative Josh Hawley backing legislation to do so, and Trump calling for a similar measure. The Journal surveyed 1,500 voters. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nearly 80% of voters support capping credit-card interest rates at 10%, a measure backed in Congress by progressive Bernie Sanders and conservative Josh Hawley, with President Trump calling for a similar measure.
  2. Nearly three-quarters of voters support capping child-care costs for working families, an idea backed by liberal Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren.
  3. Nearly three-quarters of voters support a government website guiding consumers to discounted drugs, which President Trump put into practice with his “Trump Rx” site.

Related Articles:

  • America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade — Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
  • Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences — The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.
  • Life Under Two: Debt, Deficits, and the AI Discontinuity — The United States averaged annual GDP growth above 3% for decades, but 2% or less is now more likely. Over ten years, the author estimates that gap amounts to a $3.36tn larger economy, $3.7tn more tax revenue, and 6m more jobs, shifting public psychology from abundance toward scarcity.

AI Summary. The gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields has widened at a pace matched only during the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. France and the UK have less room than the US to close deficits with tax increases, as tax revenues equal 43.9% of GDP in France and 35.3% in the UK versus 25.2% in the US.

John Authers Bloomberg
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The spread between 10-year French OATs and German Bunds has widened at a pace seen only during the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis. John Authers warns that France “satisfies all the classic conditions for a major debt crisis.”

Do high tax burdens limit France and the UK's deficit options?

Core argument: The spread of 10-year French OATs over German Bunds has risen at a pace matched only during the worst days of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis in 2011 and 2012, fueling talk of a second crisis centered in Paris.

Only in the worst days of the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, in 2011 and 2012, has the [spread of 10-Year French OATS over German Bunds] risen so fast. Talk of a second euro-zone crisis, this time with an epicenter in Paris, is growing, and it’s easy to see why. Why is this more of a problem for France and the UK? Beyond their deficits, they also shoulder much higher tax burdens than the US. Tax revenues are 25.2% of GDP in the US, the lowest of the major developed economies - but 35.3% in the UK and 43.9% in France. It’s hard to imagine after decades of tax-cutting, but a US politician could deal with the deficit fairly easily with a tax hike. It’s not clear that option is open to French lawmakers, even if they could somehow persuade voters to go along with them. The populist politicians of left and right, who currently look well placed in next year’s presidential elections, are in any case unlikely to try.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The spread of 10-year French OATs over German Bunds has risen at a pace matched only during the worst days of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis in 2011 and 2012, fueling talk of a second crisis centered in Paris.
  2. Tax revenues equal 25.2% of GDP in the US, the lowest among major developed economies, versus 35.3% in the UK and 43.9% in France, leaving American politicians more room to close the deficit with a tax hike.
  3. Populist politicians of left and right, currently well placed for France’s presidential election, are unlikely to attempt tax increases to address the deficit.

Related Articles:

  • French PM to Freeze Emmanuel Macron’s Pension Reform Until 2027 — France's prime minister said he would suspend the plan to raise the retirement age to 64 until the next presidential election, while asking parties to agree on other savings. He outlined a €30bn package of spending cuts and tax rises to cut the deficit to 4.7% of national output from 5.4%.
  • Soaring Bond Yields, Gaping Deficits and Towering Debts: What Could Go Wrong? — An analysis of 22 rich countries estimates that if each refinanced its entire debt at current five-year bond yields, Britain would need the largest primary surplus to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio, about 1.5%, followed by Italy at 1.4%, France at 1.2% and America at 1%.
  • Global Debt Report 2026 — Gross central government borrowing across OECD countries rose 7% to a record $17tn, about 23% of GDP, and is projected to reach roughly $18tn, or 24% of GDP. The United States and Japan account for close to 80% of the area's refinancing requirements, with the US share rising from 57% to 70%.

AI Summary. The Institute of International Finance reports global debt as a share of output rose less than 10 percentage points between 2018 and mid-2026, peaking at 337% in early 2021 before falling 27 percentage points by the end of 2023. Inflation eroded the debt burden, as it did in the UK after the Second World War.

Martin Wolf Financial Times
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Wolf notes that the global debt-to-GDP ratio rose by less than 10pp btw 2018 and June 2026: after peaking at 337% in early 2021, it fell by 27pp by the end of 2023, as inflation boosted nominal GDP and eroded the value of existing debt.

Does inflation reduce the global debt burden?

Core argument: IIF data show the global debt-to-output ratio reached a post-Covid peak of 337% in early 2021 before falling by 27 percentage points by the end of 2023, with inflation identified as the force that eroded it.

The IIF shows that between 2018 and June 2026, the rise in the ratio of global debt to output was less than 10 percentage points. The story is striking: the ratio reached a post-Covid peak of 337% in early 2021, before falling by 27 percentage points by the end of 2023. What was this magical “debt-buster”? Good old-fashioned (and supposedly “unexpected”) inflation. This is — to put it mildly — not the first time inflation has wiped out debt. It was, to take one of countless examples, an important part of the UK’s elimination of its post-second-world-war debt. For countries able to print the money in which their debt is denominated, that is often what happens.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. IIF data show the global debt-to-output ratio reached a post-Covid peak of 337% in early 2021 before falling by 27 percentage points by the end of 2023, with inflation identified as the force that eroded it.
  2. Between 2018 and June 2026, the IIF shows the ratio of global debt to output rose by less than 10 percentage points.
  3. Inflation has wiped out debt before, forming an important part of the UK’s elimination of its post-second-world-war debt, and often does so for countries able to print the currency in which their debt is denominated.

Related Articles:

  • Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic? — Government bonds severely underperform in wartime, in absolute terms and relative to equities, housing, and economic growth, unlike in financial crises when bonds tend to outperform stocks. The U.S. and U.K. reduced war-driven debt-to-GDP ratios without explicit default, using surprise inflation and financial repression that shifted fiscal burdens onto bondholders.
  • The Coming Great Repression? — Across countries and over time, higher public debt burdens are associated with lower relative returns on government bonds, the opposite of standard risk-premium predictions. The authors estimate financial repression—making banks captive bond buyers and loading them with low-return reserves—contributed 90.7 percentage points of GDP to Britain's postwar debt reduction, versus 20.3 from surprise inflation.
  • Global Debt Report 2026 — Gross central government borrowing across OECD countries rose 7% to a record $17tn, about 23% of GDP, and is projected to reach roughly $18tn, or 24% of GDP. The United States and Japan account for close to 80% of the area's refinancing requirements, with the US share rising from 57% to 70%.

AI Summary. A roughly $100bn Anthropic equity offering, about 5% of its implied value, would consume a meaningful share of institutions' finite new-issue budgets and investor attention, making it plausible that other issuers are delaying their own deals. Oura postponed its offering despite reporting strong demand.

Paul Kedrosky Applied Complexity
Date Posted:

Anthropic is reportedly preparing to sell $100B of stock at an ~$2T valuation. Noting postponed IPOs at Oura and OpenAI, Kedrosky argues Anthropic’s IPO may be crowding out other new issuers.

Are other issuers delaying offerings because one giant deal crowds them out?

Core argument: Anthropic’s $100 billion offering represents roughly 5% of its implied value, and would consume a meaningful amount of large institutions’ finite new-issue budgets for growth capital.

An unprecedented amount of equity supply is coming to market, much of it in one transaction, and it is increasingly plausible that other issuers are simply getting out of the way. Large institutions have finite new-issue budgets, and a $100 billion Anthropic offering would consume a meaningful amount of available growth capital. It would also dominate investor attention and create funding pressure: investors wanting Anthropic may sell or avoid smaller new issues around the same time. This may explain Oura. It reported that demand for its offering was strong, and yet it postponed it. A well-subscribed IPO being postponed suggests something beyond ordinary weak demand.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Anthropic’s $100 billion offering represents roughly 5% of its implied value, and would consume a meaningful amount of large institutions’ finite new-issue budgets for growth capital.
  2. Investors seeking Anthropic allocations may sell or avoid smaller new issues around the same time, creating funding pressure that could explain why other issuers are getting out of the way.
  3. Oura postponed its offering despite reporting strong demand, which suggests something beyond ordinary weak demand.

Related Articles:

  • SpaceX and OpenAI Are Ending Wall Street’s Era of Stock Scarcity — JPMorgan projects that share sales will add roughly $1.5tn of stock to the US equity market over the next two years even after buybacks, which would be the strongest net equity issuance since at least the late 1990s. Equity has grown cheaper relative to debt as a funding source.
  • A Catalyst For The AI Bubble Break — Historically, controlling for valuations, a 1% rise in the share of the market represented by initial public offerings has been associated with roughly a 4% decline in prices. With large artificial-intelligence company listings expected and share issuance exceeding buybacks, equity supply could shift from shrinking about 1% a year to growing near 5%, implying returns roughly 20% below average.
  • The Coming Mega-IPO Flow & Funding Problem of 2026 — Adjusted for inflation, SpaceX alone would rank as the second-largest initial public offering ever, behind Saudi Aramco, and three such listings together would exceed the entire 1995–2000 dot-com wave. Funding that equity supply requires selling existing holdings, and index rule changes make passive funds forced buyers, pressuring large-cap technology stocks.

Thursday, October 1, 2026

AI Summary. Demand and supply curves estimated from pre-pandemic data imply relatively flat demand curves in the US and euro area, so adverse supply shifts would produce large output losses but comparatively little inflation. The authors argue explaining the observed combination of high inflation and output requires outward demand shifts, including accommodative monetary policy alongside fiscal expansion.

Domenico Giannone and Giorgio Primiceri Bookings Papers on Economic Activity
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Giannone and Primiceri revisit the relative role of supply vs. demand shocks in generating the post-Covid inflation. Because aggregate demand curves estimated from pre-pandemic data are flat, supply shocks alone would not have generated large inflation in the absence of added demand stimulus.

Did outward demand shifts, not supply shocks alone, drive recent inflation?

Core argument: Demand curves estimated from pre-pandemic US and euro-area data are relatively flat, reflecting central banks’ strong pre-pandemic responses to inflation, so adverse supply shifts produce large output losses but comparatively little inflation.

Demand and supply curve slopes are estimated from pre-pandemic data using the essentially definitional restriction that supply shocks move prices and output in opposite directions along demand curves, while demand shocks move them together along supply curves; the plotted slopes represent Bayesian posterior medians rather than uniquely identified estimates. The estimated demand curves are relatively flat in both the US and euro area [Figure 7], reflecting the central banks’ strong pre-pandemic responses to inflation. With those slopes, adverse supply shifts cause large output losses but comparatively little inflation. [To successfully explain] the combination of inflation and output observed in 2022 therefore requires demand to shift outwards too. Strong demand, including unusually accommodative monetary policy [on top of strong fiscal expansion], cushioned the output losses while increasing inflation [Figure 7]. In 2021–22, both inflation and GDP as subsequently revised exceeded forecasts in the US and euro area. That combination is suggestive of unexpectedly strong demand, whereas an adverse supply surprise alone would raise inflation but lower output. [Figure 9].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Demand curves estimated from pre-pandemic US and euro-area data are relatively flat, reflecting central banks’ strong pre-pandemic responses to inflation, so adverse supply shifts produce large output losses but comparatively little inflation.
  2. Explaining the 2022 combination of inflation and output requires an outward shift in demand, with strong demand — including unusually accommodative monetary policy atop fiscal expansion — cushioning output losses while raising inflation.
  3. In 2021–22, both inflation and GDP as subsequently revised exceeded forecasts in the US and euro area, a combination suggestive of unexpectedly strong demand, since an adverse supply surprise alone would raise inflation but lower output.

Related Articles:

  • Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic? — Government bonds severely underperform in wartime, in absolute terms and relative to equities, housing, and economic growth, unlike in financial crises when bonds tend to outperform stocks. The U.S. and U.K. reduced war-driven debt-to-GDP ratios without explicit default, using surprise inflation and financial repression that shifted fiscal burdens onto bondholders.
  • Why Did Inflation Rise And Fall In 2021-24? Channels And Evidence From Expectations — Across countries, unexpectedly higher government deficits relative to earlier International Monetary Fund forecasts are associated with unexpectedly higher inflation, measured by each factor's contribution to the increase in public debt, a relationship the author finds statistically significant. This evidence is consistent with a fiscal channel for inflation.
  • Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries, 2020-2022 — Across 21 economies, the authors find that headline and core inflation responded positively to a measure of government spending increases scaled by pre-pandemic debt-to-GDP and average debt duration. Estimated coefficients of 0.4–0.5 suggest 40–50% of the extra spending was financed through inflation, with the rest through conventional public finance.

AI Summary. The authors estimate AI capital spending of $560bn in 2026 and, in a high-investment case, $3.5tn of net AI capital in service by 2030, requiring roughly $1.3tn in annual infrastructure revenue once depreciation, operating costs and a 15% return are covered. That implies 7.4x growth from current annualized revenues, with downstream revenues of $1.9–2.6tn.

William Gildea and Azeem Azhar Exponential View
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Beginning with capex projections, Gildea/Azhar derive for their high-growth case a $1.3T annual AI-infrastructure revenue hurdle for 2030. This covers $771B of depreciation and operating costs, plus a 15% return on $3.5T of net capital in service.

How much annual revenue must AI infrastructure generate to justify investment?

Core argument: In a high investment case with $3.5tn of net AI capital in service, the authors estimate AI infrastructure must generate $1.3tn of annual revenue by 2030, requiring 7.4x growth (59% CAGR) from today’s annualized revenues.

We estimate AI CapEx to be $560B in 2026, 64% of the total declared by the hyperscalers. Unfinished facilities can’t generate revenue, so the investment bill and the productive asset base will grow at different speeds. [In the high investment case], by 2030 we see $3.5T of net AI capital in service. The largest component [of the revenue hurdle] is the $555B in compute depreciation. We model lifespans at the current 5-6 years. Shell depreciation and OpEx combined contribute about a further $216B to the required revenue hurdle. [Adding a 15% return on net capital brings required annual infrastructure revenue to $1.3T]. Reaching the $1.3T hurdle would represent 7.4x growth (59% CAGR) from today’s annualized revenues. For its customers to earn 30-50% gross margins, downstream revenues need to be $1.9-2.6T. [Editor’s note: Van Nieuwerburgh’s far larger figure of $3.7T covers mature revenues from projects completed through 2032, using commissioning capital and a 50% infrastructure operating cash-flow margin. This estimate instead charges depreciation and operating costs plus 15% on net capital in service in 2030. Different horizons and cost conventions prevent a direct comparison. Van Nieuwerburgh also has a much higher capex estimate.]

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In a high investment case with $3.5tn of net AI capital in service, the authors estimate AI infrastructure must generate $1.3tn of annual revenue by 2030, requiring 7.4x growth (59% CAGR) from today’s annualized revenues.
  2. Compute depreciation of $555bn, modeled on 5-6 year lifespans, is the largest component of the 2030 revenue hurdle, with shell depreciation and operating expenses adding about $216bn and a 15% return on net capital completing the $1.3tn total.

Related Articles:

  • Financing the AI Buildout — The authors estimate roughly 57 gigawatts of operating US data center capacity against a planned development pipeline of about 509 gigawatts, which is not a completion forecast since projects may be delayed, scaled back, or abandoned. Their central scenario has 182.8 gigawatts of added capacity becoming operational through 2032, 117.2 gigawatts completed later, and 226.9 gigawatts never completed.
  • What Investment Data Implies about the AI Transition — The five largest U.S. technology firms are scaling AI capital spending about 50% a year, from $155bn to a forecast $755bn. Embedding this in a two-sector model with rare productivity booms, the authors estimate AI adds roughly 5, 20, or 58pp to cumulative growth over a seven-year transition, depending on scenario.
  • Rear Window — Major cloud providers posted annual revenue growth of 37% at Amazon Web Services, 43% at Microsoft Azure and 82% at Google Cloud, with rising revenue backlogs of $514bn and $496bn respectively at Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services. Earnings growth appears highly contingent on continued hyperscaler capital spending and research, which rose from $460bn to $870bn.

AI Summary. Domestic migration has historically added about 0.5% a year to the population of reliably Republican counties while reliably Democratic counties lost 0.6%, with international migration showing the reverse pattern. Internal Revenue Service data show the fastest-growing Republican counties draw many newcomers from Democratic and competitive areas, and Republican support in those faster-growing counties has weakened.

Economist Staff The Economist
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An Economist analysis of more than 3,000 US counties finds that in reliably GOP counties, annual deaths now exceed births by 0.4 per 1k residents, while in reliably Democratic counties, births exceed deaths by 2.8 per 1k. Population growth in the GOP counties is largely driven by internal migration.

How is domestic migration reshaping politics in Republican counties?

Core argument: Domestic migration has historically added about 0.5% a year to the population of reliably Republican counties while subtracting 0.6% a year from reliably Democratic ones.

Our number crunching shows that domestic migration has historically boosted the population of reliably Republican counties by about 0.5% a year, while reliably Democratic ones have lost 0.6%. The opposite is true of international migration, which has historically added 0.5% a year to solid-blue counties, compared with just 0.1% in solid-red ones. Data from the IRS show that the fastest-growing red counties draw an unusually large share of newcomers from politically unfriendly territory. In 2022-23 more than 20% came from solid-blue places and around 40% from competitive ones. This may already be affecting voting patterns. Before 2016, fast-growing red counties leaned more Republican than slower-growing ones. That has now flipped: slower-growing red counties lean more Republican, and GOP support in faster-growing ones has weakened.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Domestic migration has historically added about 0.5% a year to the population of reliably Republican counties while subtracting 0.6% a year from reliably Democratic ones.
  2. International migration has historically added about 0.5% a year to solid-blue counties versus just 0.1% in solid-red ones, reversing the pattern of domestic migration.
  3. Internal Revenue Service data show that in 2022-23 more than 20% of newcomers to the fastest-growing red counties came from solid-blue places and around 40% from competitive ones.

Related Articles:

  • Where Americans Choose to Move and Where They Leave — County-level mapping of net domestic migration within the United States shows some counties gained net movers equal to 10% or more of their 2020 population while others lost an equivalent share, excluding international moves.
  • Americans Are Done With Being Put in Racial Boxes — Immigration from Asia and Latin America has been the chief driver of rising US diversity and the declining non-Hispanic White share of the population. Intermarriage across racial and ethnic lines is far more common among Hispanic and Asian Americans, and rising among Black and non-Hispanic White Americans, leaving more people outside single racial categories.
  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Government transfers rose from 8.2% of Americans' total personal income in 1970 to 17.6% in 2022, making them the third largest income source after work and investments. The share of U.S. counties drawing a quarter or more of personal income from transfers rose from under 1% in 1970 to 53% in 2022.

AI Summary. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly touched 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, amid a monthslong selloff in global government debt. The 30-year US bond rate also reached a 24-year high.

Ye Xie, Alice Gledhill, and Victor Swezey Bloomberg
Date Posted:

The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, its highest since 2002, before retreating as investors bought Treasuries amid stress in European bond markets.

Are long-term Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in decades?

Core argument: The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly traded at 5.34% on Thursday, rising above its 2007 peak to its highest level since 2002.

The US benchmark yield touched its highest level since 2002, the latest milestone in a monthslong selloff in global sovereign debt. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note briefly rose above its 2007 peak to trade at 5.34% on Thursday. US Treasuries [then] rebounded from a bruising global bond selloff as pressure in European markets fueled demand for haven assets, pulling 10-year yields down from a 24-year high. In Europe, the spread between Italy and Germany’s two-year yields almost doubled to 55 basis points on Thursday, the biggest daily jump since 2020 on a closing basis. The equivalent gap for France rose as much as 22 basis points, the most since 2012.
 

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly traded at 5.34% on Thursday, rising above its 2007 peak to its highest level since 2002.
  2. The 10-year Treasury yield’s rise marks the latest milestone in a monthslong selloff in global sovereign debt.
  3. The yield on 30-year US bonds reached a 24-year high.

Related Articles:

  • Booms, Bombs and Bonds: Interest Rates, Part I — Because investors can buy bonds across borders, an investment boom in one country such as the United States can draw in loanable funds from abroad and push up interest rates in other nations. The linkage is not one-for-one, since investors also weigh expected exchange-rate changes and the resulting capital gains or losses.
  • Don’t Draw The Wrong Conclusion From Treasury Yields — Ten-year real yields equal the average expected overnight rate over the next decade plus a term premium, and fiscal credibility or debt sustainability concerns would show up as a higher term premium. With the term premium and inflation expectations contained, the increase in bond yields reflects higher expected long-term overnight rates.
  • America’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t — Two market-based measures suggest the safety premium investors pay to hold US Treasuries has compressed toward zero and at times reversed: the spread between top-rated corporate bonds and Treasuries after stripping out default risk, and the gap between currency-hedged foreign G10 government yields and Treasury yields at the same maturity, where longer-maturity comparisons now favor foreign bonds.

AI Summary. France plans to narrow its budget deficit to 5% of GDP by cutting state spending, capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries, and raising taxes. Deteriorating public finances have left France borrowing at higher interest rates than Italy and Greece, with 10-year bond yields reaching their highest since 2002.

Leila Abboud and Ian Smith Financial Times
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The French government has proposed €43B in spending cuts and tax increases for 2027, in an effort to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP from a projected 5.4% in 2026.

Can capping pensions and public salaries shrink a widening budget deficit?

Core argument: France’s government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu aims to narrow the deficit to 5% of GDP next year by cutting state spending, capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries, and raising taxes.

The government of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said it aimed to narrow the deficit to 5% of GDP next year by slashing state spending, capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries, while raising taxes. The French deficit is on track to rise to 5.4% of GDP this year, after a deterioration in its public finances that has led to France borrowing at higher interest rates than Italy and Greece. France’s 10-year bond yields reached as high as 4.96% on Thursday, their highest point since 2002, as a global bond rout was exacerbated by investor concerns over the country’s fragile public finances. But they later fell back to 4.93% in choppy trading.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. France’s government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu aims to narrow the deficit to 5% of GDP next year by cutting state spending, capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries, and raising taxes.
  2. The French deficit is on track to rise to 5.4% of GDP this year, following a deterioration in public finances that has left France borrowing at higher interest rates than Italy and Greece.
  3. French 10-year bond yields reached 4.96%, their highest since 2002, as a global bond rout was exacerbated by investor concerns over France’s fragile public finances, before falling back to 4.93%.

Related Articles:

  • The Bond Market Reckoning Has Only Begun — The gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields has widened at a pace matched only during the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. France and the UK have less room than the US to close deficits with tax increases, as tax revenues equal 43.9% of GDP in France and 35.3% in the UK versus 25.2% in the US.
  • Soaring Bond Yields, Gaping Deficits and Towering Debts: What Could Go Wrong? — An analysis of 22 rich countries estimates that if each refinanced its entire debt at current five-year bond yields, Britain would need the largest primary surplus to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio, about 1.5%, followed by Italy at 1.4%, France at 1.2% and America at 1%.
  • Global Debt Report 2026 — Gross central government borrowing across OECD countries rose 7% to a record $17tn, about 23% of GDP, and is projected to reach roughly $18tn, or 24% of GDP. The United States and Japan account for close to 80% of the area's refinancing requirements, with the US share rising from 57% to 70%.