Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Friday, September 4, 2026

AI Summary. Net US investment has fallen from roughly 40% of gross investment in the 1970s to about 25% in the past decade, meaning about three-quarters of gross investment now just replaces depreciating capital. The author attributes this gap to modern investment being more information-technology-related, which depreciates faster and requires more frequent replacement.

Timothy Taylor Conversable Economist
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U.S. real net private domestic investment—which adds to the American capital stock—is now only ~25% as large as gross investment, down from ~40% in the 1970s. Taylor suggests the widening gap between gross and net investment reflects the relatively rapid depreciation of IT-related capital.

Why does less of US gross investment add net capital?

Core argument: US net investment has run at about 25% of gross investment over the past decade, down from roughly 40% in the 1970s, meaning about three-quarters of gross investment merely replaces depreciated capital.

The figure divides net investment by gross investment. Back in the 1970s, net investment was often around 40% of gross investment, but the share has been slumping over time. For the last decade or so, net investment has been about 25% of the gross–that is, about three-quarters of gross investment is just making up for depreciation of the pre-existing capital stock. The likely reason for the growing gap between gross and net investment is that modern investment is more likely to be related to information technology [which] depreciates more rapidly and thus needs to be replaced and updated more often. If we want the average US worker to be using a greater amount of capital on the job–which was one of the key drivers of rising labor productivity in the past–it now takes a bigger rise in gross investment to lead to a given rise in net investment.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US net investment has run at about 25% of gross investment over the past decade, down from roughly 40% in the 1970s, meaning about three-quarters of gross investment merely replaces depreciated capital.
  2. The likely reason for the widening gap between gross and net US investment is that modern investment is more tied to information technology, which depreciates more rapidly and must be replaced and updated more often.
  3. Raising the capital used by the average US worker—a key driver of past labor productivity growth—now requires a larger rise in gross investment to achieve a given rise in net investment.

Related Articles:

  • US Stock Market To Stop Shrinking For First Time In 23 Years — Goldman Sachs estimates that net supply of US equity — new shares issued less shares removed by buybacks and take-privates — will be roughly flat in 2026 after being negative since 2003, with a larger influx expected in 2027 as lock-up periods on this year's initial public offerings expire.
  • Capital Is Making a Comeback — Tangible investment in property, factories and equipment fell from 12.5% to 8.5% of private gross domestic product, while intangible investment in intellectual property, software and process knowledge rose from about 11.5% to 16.75%. The author argues demand for tangible capital investment will now have to rise.
  • The Transition to a Higher Cost of Capital — Bond yields near 4.5% sit below the 5.5% short-term interest rate, leaving little risk premium, and those yields have been enough to draw buyers back toward normal bond holdings. The author argues yields still need to rise to a sustainable cost of capital given structurally higher fiscal and inflationary spending.

AI Summary. The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 after four decades of expansion, implying the first sustained negative growth in relative demand for college-educated labor. The authors estimate that weaker wage growth in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence accounts for roughly 28% of that decline, though the patterns are not causal.

José Azar, Mireia Gine and Javier Sanz-Espín Social Science Research Network
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The college wage premium flattened in the mid-2010s and has fallen ~8% since 2022. The authors argue that this compression reflects a broad decline in the returns to formal schooling, rather than a decline in the upper tail.

Is AI exposure driving the decline in the college wage premium?

Core argument: The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026 after expanding for four decades, with Current Population Survey data implying the first sustained negative relative demand growth for college labor.

After expanding for four decades, the U.S. college wage premium [dropped] sharply from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026. Current Population Survey data through 2026 implies an unprecedented drop in relative demand for college labor—the first sustained negative relative demand growth. Post-2022 wage growth slowed disproportionately in high-exposure occupations, which employ a disproportionate share of college graduates. By 2026, going from zero occupational AI exposure to full exposure had a negative effect on wages of−0.086. Combined with the college–non-college exposure gap, this mechanism accounts for roughly 28% of the total drop in the college wage premium from 2022 to 2026. While non-causal, these patterns indicate that task displacement in AI-exposed white-collar occupations plays a quantitatively meaningful role in the recent compression of the aggregate skill premium.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026 after expanding for four decades, with Current Population Survey data implying the first sustained negative relative demand growth for college labor.
  2. By 2026, moving from zero occupational AI exposure to full exposure had a -0.086 effect on wages, and combined with the college–non-college exposure gap this mechanism accounts for roughly 28% of the 2022–2026 drop in the college wage premium.
  3. Post-2022 wage growth slowed disproportionately in high-exposure occupations that employ a disproportionate share of college graduates, patterns that, while non-causal, indicate task displacement in AI-exposed white-collar occupations plays a quantitatively meaningful role in compressing the skill premium.

Related Articles:

  • Looking for the Ladder — The article argues that the hiring downturn in occupations most exposed to generative AI reflects interest-rate sensitivity rather than AI itself, since roughly 38% of workers in the most AI-exposed quintile work in information, finance and insurance, and professional and technical services, versus under 2% in the least-exposed quintile.
  • How Students and Recent Grads are Responding to the Rise of AI — Undergraduate enrollment in degrees tied to the most AI-exposed jobs has risen 8%, indicating students are moving toward rather than away from fields exposed to artificial intelligence. A decline in computer science degrees is more than offset by growth in other exposed fields such as engineering.
  • AI and Young-adult Jobs: The Real Mystery — Employment rates have declined for young adults both with and without college degrees, with non-degree holders faring marginally worse, and employment growth for young workers of all education levels has lagged that of other workers. Artificial intelligence can replace some lower-skilled jobs, but those jobs are too few to drive youth labor market weakness.

AI Summary. An analysis of millions of online job postings finds that openings fell for occupations whose tasks can be automated by generative artificial intelligence, with more-exposed firms advertising fewer such positions as a share of their total postings. Follow-up analyses suggest this shift in labor demand has negatively affected labor market outcomes for recent college graduates.

Samuel Dodini and Tucker Smith Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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A FRBD analysis of Lightcast (formerly Burning Glass) job postings data suggests AI-driven automation reduced job postings in Texas by ~1.8% in 2024 and ~2.6% in 2025, with recent college graduates most impacted.

Is AI automation reducing job openings for exposed occupations?

Core argument: An analysis of millions of online job postings finds that after ChatGPT's release in late 2022, Texas job openings fell for occupations whose tasks are automatable by generative AI.

A new analysis, using data from millions of online job postings, shows GenAI is reshaping labor demand in Texas. After the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, job openings fell for occupations whose tasks are automatable by GenAI. Indeed, more-exposed firms posted fewer automatable positions relative to their total ads after the release of ChatGPT. Follow-up analyses suggest this shift in demand has negatively affected the labor market outcomes of recent college graduates from Texas universities.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. An analysis of millions of online job postings finds that after ChatGPT's release in late 2022, Texas job openings fell for occupations whose tasks are automatable by generative AI.
  2. Firms more exposed to generative AI posted fewer automatable positions as a share of their total job ads following ChatGPT's release, according to the analysis.
  3. Follow-up analyses suggest the shift in labor demand has negatively affected labor market outcomes for recent graduates of Texas universities.

Related Articles:

  • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence — Employment for workers aged 22–25 in the occupations most exposed to artificial intelligence has declined roughly 18pp relative to less-exposed peers, with no comparable decline in other age groups. The authors find this operates mainly through reduced hiring, concentrated where AI substitutes for human tasks rather than complements them.
  • You’re (Not) Hired: Artificial Intelligence and Early Career Hiring In The Quarterly Workforce Indicators — Employment among workers aged 22–24 in the most artificial-intelligence-exposed quintile of industry-state employers fell 15.2%, while other exposure quintiles were flat or posted modest gains. The decline is not generally observed among older workers; the 25-34 group's drop was less than one-third as large in percentage terms.
  • The Impact of AI on the U.S. Labor Market — Using observed AI usage data across 321 U.S. occupations, the authors estimate that highly exposed occupations saw a 6.7% decline in real wage growth with no detectable employment effects. The estimated declines are concentrated among the lowest earners, with service workers down 24.3% and the bottom wage quartile down 10.7%, while top earners show no significant effect.

AI Summary. Wall Street banks are pressing large law firms to cut fees as artificial intelligence speeds up legal tasks, with Morgan Stanley's general counsel calling the billable-hour compensation model unstable and shifting most outside legal work to competitive bidding and fixed fees. He argues firms could stay as profitable by using AI to handle more matters at lower cost.

Kaye Wiggins and Joshua Franklin Financial Times
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AI is destabilizing the hourly-billing model of large law firms. Major banks are moving toward competitive bidding and fixed fees, expecting AI savings to lower legal costs, while firms preserve profits by handling more matters with fewer hours.

Is AI pushing law firms away from billable-hour pricing?

Core argument: Morgan Stanley general counsel Eric Grossman told the FT that law firm pay models built on associates billing long hours are "extraordinarily unstable," and that completing tasks more quickly could mark "a fundamental altering of the revenue foundation.".

Top lawyers have “for a long time been compensated on the foundation of [associates billing for long hours],” Eric Grossman, Morgan Stanley’s general counsel, told the FT. “Their compensation model is now extraordinarily unstable.” The ability to complete tasks more quickly could mark “a fundamental altering of the revenue foundation.” Grossman said the bank was willing to continue to pay large sums for the judgment and talent of the best lawyers, but that by the end of this year most external legal work would be tendered through competitive bidding processes and paid for using alternative arrangements such as fixed fees. That should cost the bank less, he said, but law firms could remain as profitable as before if they use AI to work on more matters and reduce costs.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Morgan Stanley general counsel Eric Grossman told the FT that law firm pay models built on associates billing long hours are "extraordinarily unstable," and that completing tasks more quickly could mark "a fundamental altering of the revenue foundation.".
  2. Grossman said Morgan Stanley would tender most external legal work through competitive bidding by the end of this year and pay via alternative arrangements such as fixed fees, which he said should cost the bank less.
  3. Grossman said law firms could remain as profitable as before by using AI to work on more matters and reduce costs, and that Morgan Stanley remains willing to pay large sums for the judgment and talent of the best lawyers.

Related Articles:

  • AI and Productivity — The recent pickup in US labor productivity appears driven by higher utilization of existing capital—running factories, server racks, and hotel rooms harder—rather than by firm-level efficiency gains from AI. Adoption remains too thin and the cross-sectional evidence too weak to conclude that AI-driven productivity gains are already widespread.
  • US Focus: The Effect Of Soaring Profits — US nominal pre-tax corporate profits in the national accounts grew 23% over the past year, a pace not seen outside post-recession spikes since the mid-2000s. Wider margins were the key driver, as domestic profit growth far exceeded the 8% rise in corporate value added, pushing margins near all-time highs while the labor share hit new lows.
  • Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools — The authors estimate that AI coding tools raise developers' task-level productivity by about 40% with autocomplete, 140% including synchronous agents, and 180% with asynchronous agents, with larger effects for less active developers. Gains attenuate up the production chain: synchronous agents raise lines of code 741% and pull requests 65% but releases only 20%.

AI Summary. US diesel pump prices reached a record average of $5.85 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, surpassing the previous high. Harvest season demand, early winter heating needs, and planned US refinery maintenance are likely to squeeze diesel supplies further.

Malcolm Moore Financial Times
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US retail diesel prices have climbed to an all-time nominal high of $5.85 per gallon. The previous nominal high in January 2022 would be $6.54 in current dollars.

Are seasonal demand and refinery maintenance pushing diesel prices to records?

Core argument: US diesel pump prices averaged $5.85 a gallon for the first time on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association, eclipsing the previous record set after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

[Diesel] pump prices hit an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association, eclipsing the previous record level that was reached in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. From October, diesel is likely to be squeezed further by the harvest season, early winter heating demand and planned maintenance by US refineries. About three-quarters of diesel in the US is used for transportation and trucking goods, and the fuel is also essential for agriculture, powering much of the farm equipment used in the upcoming harvest season.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US diesel pump prices averaged $5.85 a gallon for the first time on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association, eclipsing the previous record set after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
  2. From October, US diesel is likely to be squeezed further by harvest season, early winter heating demand and planned maintenance at US refineries.
  3. About three-quarters of US diesel is used for transportation and trucking goods, and the fuel also powers much of the farm equipment used in the harvest season.

Related Articles:

  • US Diesel Prices Soar As Donald Trump Hauls In Refiners — Wholesale diesel prices in New York harbour rose almost 7% to $4.71 a gallon following US air strikes on Iran, a surge expected to raise consumer costs because diesel powers American industry and agriculture. The US president summoned refiners including Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Chevron and Valero Energy to press them to curb fuel price inflation.
  • U.S. Economy Less Vulnerable To Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks Than In The Past — The United States became a net oil exporter in late 2019, and oil and oil product spending fell from near 8% of GDP in 1980 to 3% in 2024. The authors estimate a 15% global oil supply disruption would now cut annualized U.S. real GDP growth by 0.3pp, versus 1.7pp in the rest of the world.
  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

AI Summary. In New York City, income shares at the top of the distribution rose faster than nationally, with nearly two-thirds of real income growth accruing to the top 1% versus under 40% nationally, a divergence driven predominantly by non-wage income. Real median income fell, and real average income for the bottom 90% was essentially flat.

Jonathan Siegel and Jason Bram Office of the New York City Comptroller
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Btw 2019 and 2024, pre-tax, pre-transfer real median income in New York City fell 3.2%. The top .1% tax units, ~ households, (mean income ~$24mm) saw real growth of ~25%, whereas the bottom 90% (mean income ~$45,000) fell 0.8%.

Is rising income concentration in a major city driven by non-wage income?

Core argument: Nearly two-thirds of New York City's real income growth between 2019 and 2024 accrued to the top 1%, compared with under 40% nationally, a result that holds when volatile capital gains are excluded.

Between 2019 and 2024, the New York City’s income shares at the top of the distribution rose faster than the nation's, and nearly two-thirds of the real income growth over the period accrued to the top 1%, compared with under 40% nationally. The result also holds when volatile capital gains are excluded. Real median income fell over the period, and real average income for the bottom 90% of tax units was essentially flat. Adjusted for local prices (but not for transfer programs), the purchasing power of income for the lower 90% of New Yorkers is close to one-fifth below that of the bottom 90% nationally. The divergence at the top is predominantly a story of non-wage income. Wage and salary income shows a much milder widening, and occupational wage data that exclude bonuses show base pay growing faster in lower-wage occupations than in higher-wage ones, and within many occupational groups wages are converging rather than growing more unequal.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nearly two-thirds of New York City's real income growth between 2019 and 2024 accrued to the top 1%, compared with under 40% nationally, a result that holds when volatile capital gains are excluded.
  2. Real median income in New York City fell between 2019 and 2024 and real average income for the bottom 90% of tax units was essentially flat, with local-price-adjusted purchasing power for the lower 90% of New Yorkers close to one-fifth below that of the bottom 90% nationally.
  3. The divergence at the top of New York City's distribution is predominantly a story of non-wage income, with wage and salary income widening much more mildly and occupational wage data excluding bonuses showing base pay growing faster in lower-wage occupations than higher-wage ones.

Related Articles:

  • As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting — New York state's share of US taxpayers reporting over $1m in income fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022, and the Citizens Budget Commission estimates state and city income tax receipts from that group would have been $13bn higher had the share held. Job growth has concentrated in lower-paid health care and social assistance.
  • Where is Standard of Living the Highest? Local Prices and the Geography of Consumption — The authors estimate that geographical differences in cost of living are especially large for low-income US households, and that expensive cities offer college graduates a standard of living similar to affordable cities while offering less-educated households a lower one. A high school dropout household moving from the most affordable to the most expensive commuting zone would see consumption fall 18.5%.
  • The Demographic Trends That Shaped Mamdani’s Win — In New York City's mayoral race, Mamdani's average margin was 30 points in precincts with a median age under 45, and voters under 45 made up 43% of in-person ballots versus 36% in the prior governor's race. He won by over 50 points in neighborhoods where the white population share grew and the Black or Hispanic share declined.

AI Summary. International student assessment results show mathematics performance held near earlier levels for about 15 years before falling sharply, with mean scores down 9 points in math and about 14 in reading in the latest cycle. Reported student motivation and school engagement declined, and hasty incorrect answering rose to 11%.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
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Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are international student test scores falling alongside declining motivation and engagement?

Core argument: PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.
  2. Over 2018–2025, the largest reading declines came among the most advantaged 25% by socio-economic status, and the gap with the most disadvantaged students narrowed by 11 points on average across 35 OECD countries.
  3. The share of "hasty readers," who gave fast and incorrect responses, rose about five percentage points, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with hasty responses in mathematics also increasing between 2022 and 2025.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — China's reported 65-point jump in mean international student test scores between testing rounds coincided with a change in which provinces represented the country, swapping the most populous province for a richer, much smaller one. The author argues such swings, including a fall in low performers from 43% to 19% in reading, are unmatched elsewhere.
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.

AI Summary. The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 without a college degree has rarely been lower in the past two decades, and relative to their own historical ranges the job market looks much better for blue-collar and manual-service workers. Degree-holders still face lower unemployment rates overall.

Theo Francis and Ray Smith Wall Street Journal
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In 2026, the 12-month moving-average unemployment for college-educated 22–34-year-olds is above its post-2003 mean, while the rate for non-college peers is historically low. Prime-age college grads still have lower unemployment than those with no degree.

Is the job market unusually strong for workers without college degrees?

Core argument: The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.

The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades. To gauge how the job market has shifted for each cohort, [Gad Levanon, Burning Glass’s chief economist] compared current unemployment rates for the different groups with their own range of unemployment rates since 2003. The analysis included data through July. By that measure, the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers, including those in construction and on manufacturing lines, and manual-service workers. It is [however] still easier to find a job with a college degree. The unemployment rate for degree-holders in their prime working years—ages 25 to 54—averaged 2.7% for the 12 months ending in July - well below the 3.6% rate for workers with just some college education, and 4.7% for people with a high-school diploma only.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.
  2. Burning Glass chief economist Gad Levanon compared each cohort's current unemployment rate against its own range since 2003, and by that measure the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers in construction and manufacturing and for manual-service workers.
  3. College graduates ages 25 to 54 averaged a 2.7% unemployment rate for the 12 months ending in July, below the 3.6% rate for workers with some college education and 4.7% for those with only a high-school diploma.

Related Articles:

  • College Grads Struggle to Find Jobs. Non-Grads Are Giving Up — The narrowing gap in unemployment rates between young college graduates and non-graduates appears driven mainly by non-graduates dropping out of the labor force rather than by diplomas losing value, since people not seeking work aren't counted as unemployed. The share of young non-graduates employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels.
  • To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First — 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring at that low level earn an average of nearly $30 an hour and two-thirds are employed, compared with about $20 and fewer than half employed in Britain. The author argues this reflects stronger economic growth rather than vocational education policy.
  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 after four decades of expansion, implying the first sustained negative growth in relative demand for college-educated labor. The authors estimate that weaker wage growth in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence accounts for roughly 28% of that decline, though the patterns are not causal.

AI Summary. Posts across Chinese social media platforms including RedNote, Douyin and Weibo describe low wages, scarce jobs, falling property values and fear about the future, with some users turning hardship into dark humor or mocking official propaganda. The volume of pessimistic and sarcastic posts is striking given that China's internet censorship has grown more ruthless over the past decade.

Li Yuan New York Times
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Attitudes expressed on Chinese social media are increasingly negative. Given that the “censorship apparatus still controls the internet,” the increasingly negative online sentiment, much of it about “economic despair,” is “striking,” Li Yuan remarks.

Are Chinese social media users voicing growing economic pessimism despite censorship?

Core argument: Li Yuan reports that the first roughly 30 posts on her RedNote feed were nearly all about economic despair, many drawing hundreds or thousands of likes, with suggested searches including "Is there a future for employment in China?".

Across RedNote, Douyin, Weibo and other popular platforms, you can scroll endless posts about meager wages, scarce jobs, falling property values and fear about the future. Some turn their hardships into dark humor. Others hijack official posts and hashtags and turn propaganda into spectacles of mockery. China’s internet censorship has grown increasingly ruthless over the past decade. That makes the sheer volume of the pessimistic posts and sarcastic comments all the more striking. When [Li Yuan opened her] RedNote in recent weeks, [she] was surprised to find that the first 30 or so posts were nearly all about economic despair, many with hundreds or thousands of likes. The suggested searches could be even gloomier. “Is there a future for employment in China?” read one.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Li Yuan reports that the first roughly 30 posts on her RedNote feed were nearly all about economic despair, many drawing hundreds or thousands of likes, with suggested searches including "Is there a future for employment in China?".
  2. Posts across RedNote, Douyin, Weibo and other Chinese platforms describe meager wages, scarce jobs, falling property values and fear about the future, with some users turning hardship into dark humor.
  3. Chinese users hijack official posts and hashtags to turn propaganda into spectacles of mockery, a volume of pessimistic and sarcastic commentary made striking by censorship that has grown increasingly ruthless over the past decade.

Related Articles:

  • Record Graduate Influx Lifts China’s Youth Jobless Rate To 17.9% In July — China's jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds excluding students rose to 17.9% from 14.9% the prior month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, as a record wave of university graduates entered an already crowded labor market.
  • Chinese Student High-Flyers Set Sights On Police and Military Academies — High-achieving Chinese high school graduates are increasingly applying to police and military academies and other schools offering a clear path to public-sector jobs, pushing required entrance-exam scores up. Some programs now demand more than 650 points out of 750, rivaling the least competitive courses at China's most prestigious universities.
  • The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s Imbalanced Economy and Unrelenting Mercantilism — About 30% of Chinese industrial companies are unprofitable "zombies" kept alive by subsidies far larger than those elsewhere, rather than exiting amid falling industrial producer prices. Countries with large increases in manufactured imports from China also saw slowdowns in domestic manufacturing, including declining manufacturing shares of output across most of Southeast Asia.