Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, August 12, 2026

AI Summary. About 30% of Chinese industrial companies are unprofitable "zombies" kept alive by subsidies far larger than those elsewhere, rather than exiting amid falling industrial producer prices. Countries with large increases in manufactured imports from China also saw slowdowns in domestic manufacturing, including declining manufacturing shares of output across most of Southeast Asia.

Michael Cembalest J.P. Morgan
Date Posted:

Cembalest notes according to Chinese data, ~30% of Chinese industrial companies are “unprofitable zombies” that survive due to broad-based subsidies; for example, 58% of new Chinese bank loans are extended at or under its prime rate of 3%.

Do Chinese subsidies keep unprofitable firms alive and shrink other countries' manufacturing?

Core argument: Roughly 30% of Chinese industrial companies are unprofitable zombies sustained by a broad-based subsidy approach that dwarfs the rest of the world, despite prolonged negative industrial producer prices that would normally force competition and capacity cuts.

Normally, a prolonged period of negative industrial producer prices would lead to competition and reduced capacity. Not in China, however; instead, ~30% of Chinese industrial companies are unprofitable zombies that survive due to a broad-based subsidy approach that dwarfs the rest of the world. Countries that experienced large increases in manufactured imports from China also experienced slowdowns in domestic manufacturing. From 2021 to 2024, as Chinese imports to the ASEAN region increased, every ASEAN country except for Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos experienced a decline in their manufacturing share of GDP.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Roughly 30% of Chinese industrial companies are unprofitable zombies sustained by a broad-based subsidy approach that dwarfs the rest of the world, despite prolonged negative industrial producer prices that would normally force competition and capacity cuts.
  2. From 2021 to 2024, as Chinese imports into the ASEAN region rose, every ASEAN country except Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos saw its manufacturing share of GDP decline.
  3. Countries that experienced large increases in manufactured imports from China also experienced slowdowns in domestic manufacturing.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy — China's export growth is concentrated in upstream, higher-tech goods: exports of intermediate inputs rose 26% and capital goods 32% between 2021 and 2024, while consumption goods exports were broadly flat. This shift embeds China deeper in global production systems and aligns with its long-running import substitution strategy of localizing entire value chains.
  • Sticking with What Works: Raising GDP Forecast on China’s Manufacturing Push — Stronger Chinese growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing may not produce net positive spillovers: for every 1pp export-driven boost to China's GDP, other economies may see a 0.1–0.3pp drag, with high-tech producers such as Europe and Japan facing greater pressure. Cheaper Chinese goods continue to exert a disinflationary impulse.
  • Europe Has No Choice But To Intervene On Trade — Manufacturing competitiveness is argued to stem largely from lower labor costs relative to productivity, so policies that raise the household share of income weaken competitiveness while countries that suppress wages gain at trade partners' expense. The author argues Europe must therefore intervene in its external accounts to offset foreign trade intervention rather than cut wages and welfare.

AI Summary. China's "flexible employment" — a loosely defined official category spanning part-time work, self-employment, and new work forms — is estimated at 320mn people, up from 280mn a year earlier, with more than 53mn working as food delivery or ridesharing drivers. Analysts argue this reflects broad labour-market weakness, as low aggregate demand weakens workers' bargaining power.

Thomas Hale and William Langley Financial Times
Date Posted:

There are ~320mm “flexible workers” in China including ~53mm food delivery or rideshare drivers whose ranks have grown by ~10mm in the last two years. Flexible work is serving as a “shock absorber” in the face of broad-based labor market weakness.

Is China's rising flexible employment a sign of labor market weakness?

Core argument: The China New Employment Forms Research Center estimates flexible employment in China will reach 320mm this year, up from 280mm last year; the official figure stood at 200mm in 2021, covering part-time work, self-employment and "new forms of employment.".

Flexible employment, an official term that is vaguely defined, implies a broader scope than gig work. It stood at 200mm in 2021 [including] part-time work and self-employment as well as “new forms of employment.” More than 53mm people as of 2025 work as food delivery or ridesharing drivers in China, up 10mm in two years, estimates the China New Employment Forms Research Center. [They] estimate that flexible employment will hit 320mm this year, up from 280mm last year. Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal, suggests flexible employment and gig work are “more of a symptom of broad-based labour market weakness in China than a totally independent development…Because aggregate demand is low, the bargaining power of workers is weaker, and they have to accept more underemployment and less favourable working conditions."

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The China New Employment Forms Research Center estimates flexible employment in China will reach 320mm this year, up from 280mm last year; the official figure stood at 200mm in 2021, covering part-time work, self-employment and "new forms of employment.".
  2. More than 53mm people in China work as food delivery or ridesharing drivers as of 2025, up 10mm in two years, according to the China New Employment Forms Research Center.
  3. Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal, argues flexible employment and gig work are more a symptom of broad-based labour market weakness in China, where low aggregate demand weakens workers' bargaining power and forces them to accept more underemployment and less favourable conditions.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Youth Unemployment Rate Edges Down In May As Economic Strains Persist — China's urban jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds excluding students fell to 15.6% from 16.3%, above the 14.9% recorded a year earlier, while the overall urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.2%. A record 12.7m students, about 4% more than the prior year, are expected to graduate over the summer.
  • Chinese Student High-Flyers Set Sights On Police and Military Academies — High-achieving Chinese high school graduates are increasingly applying to police and military academies and other schools offering a clear path to public-sector jobs, pushing required entrance-exam scores up. Some programs now demand more than 650 points out of 750, rivaling the least competitive courses at China's most prestigious universities.
  • China Says Hostile Foreign Forces Are Driving Its Youth to Slack Off — China's Ministry of State Security attributes youth disillusionment to ideological infiltration by foreign anti-China hostile forces, calling young people the primary targets of such efforts. Millions of young Chinese have embraced a "lying flat" mindset, rejecting pressure to overwork or leaving work entirely in an economy with limited well-paying jobs.

AI Summary. US consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% from the prior month and 2.5% from a year earlier, while overall consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The subdued underlying inflation likely eases pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Mark Niquette Bloomberg
Date Posted:

The annual underlying inflation rate was subdued in July. Headline and core CPI are up 3.4% and 2.5% y/y, respectively.

Is subdued core inflation easing pressure on the Fed to raise rates?

Core argument: US core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in July from the prior month and 2.5% from a year earlier, matching the slowest annual pace since March 2021, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Underlying US inflation was subdued in July, likely easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The consumer price index, excluding often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.1% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in July from the prior month and 2.5% from a year earlier, matching the slowest annual pace since March 2021, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
  2. Overall US consumer prices increased 0.1% in July from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. Subdued underlying US inflation in July likely eases pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Related Articles:

  • U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing — A monthly slowdown in U.S. consumer price inflation excluding energy is likely a fluke, reflecting a recurring post-pandemic pattern of summer slowdowns and unusually large price declines in a few categories such as motor vehicle insurance, phone bills, and jewelry. Wage growth and producer prices suggest underlying inflation running about 1–1.5 percentage points faster per year than before the pandemic.
  • If Anyone Needs an Intervention, It’s the BOJ — A Federal Reserve press conference that offered no forward guidance left the market's projected path for interest rates barely changed, since investors form their own view from the data. But the 30-year inflation-protected Treasury yield has only been higher for a few days at the worst of the 2008 crisis, suggesting possible damage to the Federal Reserve's credibility.
  • Inflation and Debt — Congressional Budget Office long-term projections show sustained primary deficits of 2% of GDP driving the debt-to-GDP ratio steadily higher, a path the agency itself labels unsustainable. Closing a 2% of GDP fiscal gap is economically straightforward for a growing country at peace, but inflation or default would not resolve the problem, since prospective deficits still require continued borrowing.

AI Summary. Bloomberg Economics estimates the US has likely fired more than half its most advanced Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors and about 40% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors, with stocks of Precision Strike Missiles likely exhausted. The authors argue the US is not out of missiles but is running low on the right ones.

Magdalena Del Valle Bloomberg
Date Posted:

A Bloomberg analysis finds the US likely consumed > half of its most advanced Patriot variant, ~40% of THAAD stocks and “likely exhausted” its magazine of new Precision Strike Missiles, a key long-range standoff missile in the Iran War.

Are US stocks of advanced interceptors and strike missiles running low?

Core argument: Bloomberg Economics estimates the US has likely fired more than half of its most advanced Patriot variant, the PAC-3 MSE, and about 40% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors.

[A Bloomberg analysis] found the US has likely fired more than half of its most advanced Patriot variant — the PAC-3 MSE — and about 40% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors. The Pentagon also burned through various types of long distance, so-called stand-off strike missiles with numbers of Precision Strike Missiles “likely exhausted,” as commanders tried to keep US troops out of harm’s way. “The US isn’t out of missiles, but it is running low on the right ones. And the choices that remain all come at a cost” [wrote Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser and Courtney McBride].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Bloomberg Economics estimates the US has likely fired more than half of its most advanced Patriot variant, the PAC-3 MSE, and about 40% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors.
  2. Bloomberg Economics finds the Pentagon burned through various long-distance stand-off strike missiles, with numbers of Precision Strike Missiles "likely exhausted," as commanders sought to keep US troops out of harm's way.
  3. Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser and Courtney McBride write that the US "isn't out of missiles, but it is running low on the right ones," with the remaining choices all coming at a cost.

Related Articles:

  • Renewed Iran War Would Test Diminished Interceptor Inventories — Air defense against Iranian missile attacks has achieved high but imperfect interception rates, and the interceptors expended have left Patriot inventories under 1,000 and THAAD inventories at about 250. Diminished stockpiles may force more risk-taking on interceptions and pose a near- to medium-term risk to U.S. readiness for a war with China in the western Pacific.
  • Is the Industrial Base on a Wartime Footing? A Progress Report — About 10,000 new firms have entered the US defense market in two years, and nontraditional companies received over $120bn in contract obligations in fiscal 2025, while munitions contract obligations have risen 330% since fiscal 2010. The Defense Department is signing large-scale multiyear munitions agreements and backing a rare earth supply chain outside Chinese control.
  • America’s Fight Back Against China Starts In Los Angeles—In Flip-Flops — El Segundo, California has developed a self-reinforcing entrepreneurial cluster of defense and hardware startups founded by former employees of SpaceX, Palantir and Anduril who cashed in stock options to launch their own firms. One of them, drone maker Neros, says it has America's highest drone production rate and has worked to remove Chinese technology, including circuit boards, from its products.

Thursday, August 13, 2026

AI Summary. Corporate earnings have risen faster than stock prices, with earnings excluding Amazon and Alphabet up 32%, evidence against a bubble explanation for the stock market's disconnect from GDP. Bank of America calculates median S&P 500 earnings growth has accelerated to 13% from 8%, with real revenue up around 8%.

Greg Ip Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

A Bank of America analysis finds the median earnings growth of S&P 500 firms has accelerated to 13% from 8% two years ago. Total revenue, adjusted for inflation and currency changes, excluding energy and financial firms, is up ~8%.

Do rising earnings undercut the bubble explanation for stock market gains?

Core argument: Excluding Amazon.com and Alphabet, whose results were inflated by investment gains, S&P 500 earnings rose 32% in the second quarter so far, with earnings outpacing stock prices over the past year.

There are several potential explanations for why the stock market has disconnected from GDP. One is that it’s a bubble. Another is that it tells us something about the future, namely that growth is going to accelerate. In a bubble, stock prices typically go up faster than earnings, inflating valuations. But in the last year, earnings have risen faster than prices. Exclude Amazon.com and Alphabet, whose results were inflated by investment gains, and earnings were up a stunning 32% in the second quarter so far. The boom isn’t just a tech or AI story. The median earnings growth of S&P 500 companies has accelerated to 13% from 8% two years ago, according to Bank of America. The bank calculates that total revenue for the index excluding energy and financial companies, and adjusted for inflation and currency changes, is up around 8%, much more than GDP.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Excluding Amazon.com and Alphabet, whose results were inflated by investment gains, S&P 500 earnings rose 32% in the second quarter so far, with earnings outpacing stock prices over the past year.
  2. Median earnings growth of S&P 500 companies has accelerated to 13% from 8% two years ago, according to Bank of America, indicating the boom is not confined to technology and AI.
  3. Bank of America calculates that S&P 500 revenue excluding energy and financial companies, adjusted for inflation and currency changes, is up around 8%, much more than GDP.

Related Articles:

  • Are US Corporate Profit Margins Too High? — US after-tax non-financial corporate profit margins remain elevated by historical standards, estimated at 7.6% versus a post-1949 high of 8.2%, while employee pay as a share of non-financial corporate gross value added has fallen from 66% to 56%. One argument holds that subdued demographic growth leads companies to prioritize maximizing margins over expanding capacity.
  • The Summer I Turned Pretty — A warning sign in a boom cycle is when companies closest to final demand weaken while capital spending beneficiaries keep thriving, as when telecom operators' shares rolled over while communications equipment stocks kept rising. Semiconductor stock prices and free cash flow are soaring while large cloud providers' shares stagnate and their free cash flow plummets.
  • Momentum, Rotation and the Value in Growth — After a fifteen-year stretch in which US equities, technology and growth stocks led, equity gains have broadened geographically, with the US the weakest of the major regions. The five largest US stocks now trade at a price-to-earnings ratio only marginally above the other 495, after holding a consistent premium since 2017.

AI Summary. A $42bn auction of 10-year US Treasury notes cleared at a yield of 4.683%, the highest for the benchmark security since 2007, as investors demanded more compensation to finance the US government. The yield came in just above the level prevailing in the market before bidding closed, indicating demand slightly lagged expectations.

Michael MacKenzie and Greg Ritchie Bloomberg
Date Posted:

An auction of $42B of 10-Year Treasuries drew “decent” demand, with the yield rising to 4.683% — the highest 10-year yield at auction since 2007.

Are investors demanding higher yields to finance US government borrowing?

Core argument: A $42 billion auction of 10-year US Treasuries cleared at a yield of 4.683%, the highest for the benchmark security since 2007.

A $42 billion auction of 10-year US Treasuries resulted in the highest yield for the benchmark securities since 2007, luring decent appetite from investors who’ve been demanding more compensation to finance the US government. The yield at Wednesday’s sale came in at 4.683%, the most since the global financial crisis, and just above the prevailing level seen in the market before the 1 p.m. bidding deadline in New York — a sign that demand only slightly lagged expectations.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A $42 billion auction of 10-year US Treasuries cleared at a yield of 4.683%, the highest for the benchmark security since 2007.
  2. The auction yield came in just above the level prevailing in the market before the 1 p.m. New York bidding deadline, a sign that demand only slightly lagged expectations.
  3. The 10-year Treasury sale drew decent appetite from investors who have been demanding more compensation to finance the US government.

Related Articles:

  • The Global Fiscal Train Wreck — Ten-year forward yields ten years ahead have risen across major advanced economies, not just the US, a global theme the author attributes to the debt buildup during the pandemic. The author argues economies have begun shifting from a good to a bad debt equilibrium, which he sees behind the rally in precious metals prices tied to a "debasement trade.
  • Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic? — Government bonds severely underperform in wartime, in absolute terms and relative to equities, housing, and economic growth, unlike in financial crises when bonds tend to outperform stocks. The U.S. and U.K. reduced war-driven debt-to-GDP ratios without explicit default, using surprise inflation and financial repression that shifted fiscal burdens onto bondholders.
  • Global Debt Report 2026 — Gross central government borrowing across OECD countries rose 7% to a record $17tn, about 23% of GDP, and is projected to reach roughly $18tn, or 24% of GDP. The United States and Japan account for close to 80% of the area's refinancing requirements, with the US share rising from 57% to 70%.

AI Summary. Tanker tracking data identify at least 5m barrels a day of oil still transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and allowing for vessels crossing undetected the true figure could reach 7m–9m. Growing oil spills visible on satellite imagery indicate attacks on tankers alongside efforts to keep the waterway open.

Javier Blas Bloomberg
Date Posted:

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that ~9mm bpd crossed Hormuz over the previous week. Javier Blas’s baseline was ~7mm but finds Wright’s claim plausible: “If we’re missing two tankers rather than one, that raises it to 9 million barrels.”

Is oil still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz despite attacks?

Core argument: Counting identified tankers in available data shows at least 5 million barrels a day transiting the Strait of Hormuz, before any adjustment for vessels that go uncounted.

By counting identified tankers using available data, we can safely say that, at the very least, 5 million barrels a day are transiting Hormuz. Then I like to add an adjustment factor for known unknowns — because I’m quite certain that more is happening. Say one supertanker a day is crossing in utmost secrecy; that pushes the count to 7 million barrels a day. If we’re missing two tankers rather than one, that raises it to 9 million barrels. It quickly adds up. There's a tell of what’s going on: Oil spills in the Strait of Hormuz, quite visible on the available satellite imagery, are growing by the day. It’s a sign that Iran is attacking tankers to keep the waterway closed, but also an indication that many are battling equally to keep it open — perhaps more successfully than we think.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Counting identified tankers in available data shows at least 5 million barrels a day transiting the Strait of Hormuz, before any adjustment for vessels that go uncounted.
  2. Assuming one supertanker a day crosses in secrecy raises the estimated flow through the Strait of Hormuz to 7 million barrels a day, and two missed tankers raise it to 9 million.
  3. Oil spills visible on satellite imagery of the Strait of Hormuz are growing by the day, an indication that Iran is attacking tankers to close the waterway while others work to keep it open.

Related Articles:

  • Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as Hormuz Reopens — No Gulf producer's oil output has fallen to zero, as engineers have rotated well shutdowns, choked flows to a trickle, and used pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to avoid clogging and pressure loss on restart. The author argues that reopening the strait will surprise observers with its speed.
  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.
  • Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World — China leads in adding power to the grid, with more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines versus zero in the US and lead times for large transformers of 48 weeks against a US average of 143 weeks. This positions China to accommodate new demand sources such as artificial intelligence.

AI Summary. Global copper demand is projected to rise about 50% to 42m metric tons by 2040, with supply falling short by as much as 10m, as electric vehicles require nearly 3x the copper of conventional cars. Analysts attribute the shortfall to declining ore grades, few large discoveries, and 17-year average development timelines.

John Authers Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Copper hit a new all-time high. The underlying driver is the accelerating pace of electrification, which S&P Global forecasts will increase copper demand by 50% over the next 15 years, which alongside supply constraints will likely create a supply shortfall of ~10mm metric tons by 2040.

Will copper supply fall short of rising demand by 2040?

Core argument: Global copper demand is expected to rise about 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040, with supply expected to fall short by as much as 10 million metric tons.

AI-related demand is dwarfed by the huge energy transition — encompassing electric vehicles, renewables, and grid infrastructure. In general, EVs require nearly three times as much copper as conventional cars, and their rapidly growing sales add to demand. Global EV sales last year were 25% higher than total new-car sales in the US, the world's second-largest new-car market. Altogether, global copper demand is expected to shoot up by about 50%, rising to 42 million metric tons by 2040. Meanwhile, supply is expected to fall short by as much as 10 million. Freedom Broker argues that this will be driven by declining ore grades, limited large-scale discoveries — even as the global copper exploration budget has increased in recent years — and extended project development timelines averaging 17 years from discovery to production.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Global copper demand is expected to rise about 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040, with supply expected to fall short by as much as 10 million metric tons.
  2. Electric vehicles require nearly three times as much copper as conventional cars, and global EV sales last year ran 25% above total new-car sales in the US, the world's second-largest new-car market.
  3. Freedom Broker attributes the projected copper shortfall to declining ore grades, limited large-scale discoveries despite increased global exploration budgets, and development timelines averaging 17 years from discovery to production.

Related Articles:

  • US Copper Problem Is Processing, Not Supply, Study Finds — The US constraint in copper is processing capacity rather than raw supply: domestic mine output and scrap are exported in large volumes, often to China, to be refined into the copper cathode used in manufacturing. Analysis by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence finds US raw copper sources could cover 146% of annual demand, versus 40% for China.
  • The World’s Copper Squeeze Is Set to Intensify on AI and Defense Spending, S&P Says — S&P Global projects copper demand will rise 50% to 42m tons by 2040 while production peaks near 33m tons in 2030 as ore quality declines at existing mines and new projects face permitting, financing and construction hurdles. The projected 10m-ton gap assumes recycled copper more than doubles to 10m tons.
  • Capital Is Making a Comeback — Tangible investment in property, factories and equipment fell from 12.5% to 8.5% of private gross domestic product, while intangible investment in intellectual property, software and process knowledge rose from about 11.5% to 16.75%. The author argues demand for tangible capital investment will now have to rise.

AI Summary. Democratic turnout in midterm elections is not among the party's problems, and midterm conditions favor it despite internal disarray. A president with a 38% approval rating, an unpopular Middle East quagmire, spiking gas prices, and an 80-year-old lame-duck incumbent coincide with worldwide voter anger toward whoever holds power.

Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson Silver Bulletin
Date Posted:

Nate Silver’s midterm election model gives the Democrats an ~86% chance of flipping the House and a ~56% chance of flipping the Senate though Silver notes, “I’ll admit to being slightly surprised by that [Senate] number.”

Do favorable midterm conditions outweigh a party's internal disarray?

Core argument: Democrats face many problems, but turning out their voters in midterm elections is not one of them, the piece argues.

The Democratic Party has a whole host of problems; turning out their voters in midterms isn’t one of them. For midterm election purposes, you’d rather have a little internal disarray than have a president with a 38% approval rating on the basis of an unpopular quagmire in the Middle East and understandable voter anxiety about spiking gas prices. Not to mention voter fatigue over an 80-year-old, lame duck president at a time when the incumbency “advantage” has turned into persistent anger all around the world toward the status quo and whoever is in charge of it.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Democrats face many problems, but turning out their voters in midterm elections is not one of them, the piece argues.
  2. For midterm purposes, the piece argues, internal disarray is preferable to a president with a 38% approval rating amid an unpopular Middle East quagmire and voter anxiety over spiking gas prices.
  3. Voter fatigue with an 80-year-old lame-duck president coincides with incumbency turning from an advantage into persistent anger worldwide toward the status quo and whoever is in charge, the piece argues.

Related Articles:

  • Is The Vibecession Real — Or Is The Survey Broken? — The Index of Consumer Sentiment is distorted by an oversampling of Democrats and by a shift from telephone to online polling that made responses more negative, with partisan nonresponse and respondents using economic questions to express political views. Adjusting for both leaves sentiment historically low but not at Great Recession lows.
  • America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade — Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
  • Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences — The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.