Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, June 4, 2026

AI Summary. The authors trace a channel from rising imports to lower domestic sales, employment, plant closures, profits, capacity utilization, and reduced investment in fixed capital and research. They note the computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the US manufacturing productivity slowdown, offshored production to Asia, reaching 84% import penetration.

Robert Gordon and Kenneth Ryu National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Citing complementarities btw production and innovation, Gordon et al trace the origins of the end of productivity growth in U. S. manufacturing back to 2000, when sectoral output growth ceased amid increased import competition.

Do rising imports explain the US manufacturing productivity growth slowdown?

Core argument: The computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the U.S. manufacturing productivity growth slowdown, largely offshored production to Asia after 2005, reaching an import penetration ratio of 84% by 2018.

We trace a channel of causation from the arrival of imports to declining domestic sales and employment, plant closures, lower profits and capacity utilization, and less investment in fixed capital and R&D. The effect of imports on domestic innovation is more nuanced. Some authors argue that domestic manufacturing and innovation are complements; when production of components is offshored the growing distance from the production process inhibits further improvements that combine design and process innovation. The computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the manufacturing productivity growth slowdown, largely offshored production to Asia after 2005. By 2018 its import penetration ratio had reached 84%. This did not occur primarily because of lower labor costs. Instead the attraction of Asia was its emphasis on process innovation. “Manufacturing optimization” leads to the ability to ramp up production quickly at massive scale. Further explanations include government subsidies, geographically concentrated supplier clusters, and support for worker training.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the U.S. manufacturing productivity growth slowdown, largely offshored production to Asia after 2005, reaching an import penetration ratio of 84% by 2018.
  2. The authors trace a channel of causation from the arrival of imports to declining domestic sales and employment, plant closures, lower profits and capacity utilization, and less investment in fixed capital and R&D.
  3. Asia's attraction lay less in lower labor costs than in its emphasis on process innovation, with "manufacturing optimization" allowing rapid production ramp-up at massive scale, alongside government subsidies, concentrated supplier clusters, and support for worker training.

Related Articles:

  • Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low? — Manufacturing productivity growth fell behind other sectors after computer and semiconductor manufacturing productivity, which had grown at roughly 15% and 11% a year, decelerated substantially. The authors also present suggestive evidence that quality improvements are missed in price measures, estimating manufacturing productivity growth is understated by 0.8 percentage points, including 1.7 points for durable goods.
  • What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds — The US imports roughly 40% of the goods it consumes, directly and through imported inputs, with labor-intensive goods like apparel almost entirely imported. The authors argue America's main comparative disadvantage is its cost of production, driven mainly by labor costs, with real estate costs and a strong dollar also contributing.
  • Speed Can Reindustrialize America — The US has a relative surplus of low-paid hourly workers and a shortage of high-skill workers, so many less productive US manufacturers could buy a robot but could not attract the talent to program it. China faces the opposite conditions, with underemployed STEM graduates, residency rules complicating coastal factory hiring, and robot programmers earning a fraction of US wages.

AI Summary. Because Social Security and Medicare benefits are politically untouchable, retirees effectively hold the most senior claim on US government resources while Treasury bondholders hold the riskiest one. On this argument, bondholders absorb adverse fiscal shocks through surprise inflation, financial repression, or both.

Hanno Lustig The Two Cents
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Lustig argues that bondholders in advanced economies are realizing they are facing higher inflation risk and thus may “sit at the bottom of the capital structure rather than the top,” given transfer recipients’ political power.

Do government bondholders, not retirees, hold the riskiest claim on public resources?

Core argument: Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, the boomers, effectively sit atop the US capital structure as the most senior claimants holding the safest tranche, given that Social Security is treated as the third rail of American politics.

Social Security is typically referred to as the third rail of American politics. If you buy into that notion, then these retirees collecting Social Security and Medicare checks, the boomers, effectively sit at the top of the US capital structure. If you pursue the analogy with the corporate capital structure, then these beneficiaries are effectively the most senior bondholders. They own the safest tranche. The owners of the Treasurys, the bondholders, sit at the bottom of the capital structure rather than the top. The Treasury owners end up with the riskiest tranche, absorbing adverse fiscal shocks through either surprise inflation or financial repression, or a combination of both. And there is a lot of risk to be absorbed.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, the boomers, effectively sit atop the US capital structure as the most senior claimants holding the safest tranche, given that Social Security is treated as the third rail of American politics.
  2. Treasury bondholders occupy the bottom of the US capital structure rather than the top, holding the riskiest tranche and absorbing adverse fiscal shocks through surprise inflation, financial repression, or a combination of both.

Related Articles:

  • Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic? — Government bonds severely underperform in wartime, in absolute terms and relative to equities, housing, and economic growth, unlike in financial crises when bonds tend to outperform stocks. The U.S. and U.K. reduced war-driven debt-to-GDP ratios without explicit default, using surprise inflation and financial repression that shifted fiscal burdens onto bondholders.
  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9tn (5.8% of GDP) to $3.1tn (6.7%) over a decade, above the 3.8% averaged over the past 50 years, with rising net interest costs driving much of the increase. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% to 120% of GDP.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.

AI Summary. Between 1976 and 2024 the trend labor force participation rate fell 10.1 percentage points for men and rose 8.2 points for women. Population aging lowered participation by about 4 points for each gender and rising education raised it (+6 for women, +3 for men), but the divergence is dominated by participation trends within age-gender groups.

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Greeshma Avaradi and Taerin Kim Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

~9pp of the ~23pp decline in US men’s LFP relative to that of women btw 1976 and 2024 is due to a negative group-specific trend among less-educated men and about 6pp is due to an analogous positive trend among high-education women.

What explains the divergence in male and female labor force participation?

Core argument: Trend labor force participation for men declined 10.1 percentage points between 1976 and 2024, while trend participation for women rose 8.2 percentage points.

Figure 2 unpacks the aggregate pattern [Figure 1 in the gallery] as separate participation trends for men and women. Each panel shows a smooth red line for the cumulative change in the gender-specific LFP trend from 1976 to 2024. The figure also shows contributions to this cumulative change from changes in age composition (green line), changes in education composition (light blue line), and changes in group-specific trend LFP (dark blue line). The figure shows how much of each gender’s change in its LFP trend since 1976 comes from each source. [It] shows that, btw 1976 and 2024, the trend LFP for men declined 10.1 percentage points while the trend LFP for women increased 8.2 percentage points. Population aging pushed down the LFP rate about the same amount for both genders, –4 points. Rising education pushed it up for both genders, though the contribution was somewhat more important for women (+6 points) than for men (+3 points). However, the divergent trends for men and women are dominated by the age-gender group-specific LFP trends rather than by changes in the education and age compositions for each gender.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Trend labor force participation for men declined 10.1 percentage points between 1976 and 2024, while trend participation for women rose 8.2 percentage points.
  2. Population aging subtracted about 4 percentage points from trend participation for both men and women, while rising education added 6 points for women and 3 points for men.
  3. The divergence between male and female participation trends is dominated by age-gender group-specific participation trends rather than by changes in each gender's age and education composition.

Related Articles:

  • Women, Men and Jobs — The share of U.S. prime-age men out of the labor force has more than quadrupled from about 2.5% to around 11%, with most supported by parents, wives, or partners rather than disability insurance. The shift toward knowledge and services has reduced male-coded jobs across all advanced countries, including Germany.
  • Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates — Marriage rates for college-educated women have remained stable over the past fifty years even as the relative supply of college-educated men declined, with the overall decline in marriage driven almost entirely by fewer marriages between non-college women and non-college men. The education gap in women's marriage rates is larger in areas where non-college men face the highest joblessness and incarceration.
  • Post-Pandemic Recovery for America’s Prime Age Labor Force: A Tale of Two Sexes — Prime-age women's labor force participation climbed about 5 points above its pre-pandemic level over a decade, while prime-age men's rose barely a point, only just regaining pre-pandemic levels. Despite economic expansion and labor shortages, work rates for prime-age American men are barely as high as at the trough of the severe Reagan-era recession.

AI Summary. India's fertility has fallen further and faster than expected, with the total fertility rate at 1.3 in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and 1.5 across urban India, raising concern that the country is following China, whose population has been shrinking. Poorer northern states appear to be converging with wealthier ones.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

As recently as 2019, Narendra Modi warned India was facing a “population explosion.” Today, India’s total fertility rate of 1.9 is below replacement, and the TFR in major cities like Delhi (1.2) is lower than that of advanced economies.

Is India's fertility falling faster than expected across rich and poor states?

Core argument: The total fertility rate stands at 1.3 in both Tamil Nadu (roughly 77m people) and West Bengal (100m), matching Finland, while urban India averages 1.5.

Officials worry that India is on a similar path to China, whose population has been shrinking since 2021. Fertility has fallen much further and faster than expected, says Neelkanth Mishra, chief economist of Axis Bank. In both Tamil Nadu, a state of roughly 77m, and West Bengal (100m) the TFR stands at 1.3, the same as in Finland. The average for urban India is 1.5. For a long time demographers thought poor northern states would delay India’s demographic transition. Now they seem to be converging with wealthier, less teeming parts of the country.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The total fertility rate stands at 1.3 in both Tamil Nadu (roughly 77m people) and West Bengal (100m), matching Finland, while urban India averages 1.5.
  2. Neelkanth Mishra, chief economist of Axis Bank, says Indian fertility has fallen much further and faster than expected, and officials worry India is on a similar path to China, whose population has been shrinking since 2021.
  3. Demographers long expected poor northern Indian states to delay the country's demographic transition, but those states now appear to be converging with wealthier, less teeming parts of India.

Related Articles:

  • The Demographic Future of Humanity: Facts and Consequences — The authors estimate the world total fertility rate is around 2.17, below the global replacement rate of roughly 2.21, meaning humanity is already below replacement, with fertility and births falling faster than anticipated. They project middle-income countries' fertility may fall below that of rich countries outside East Asia, with emigration compounding population decline.
  • World Depopulation: Prospects and Implications — The US is projected to account for a growing share of the rich world's labor force, youth, and highly educated talent, with continuing population and labor force growth and only moderate aging through 2050. Its fertility, though below replacement, exceeds that of East Asian and nearly all European countries, and sustained legal immigration is essential to this demographic advantage.
  • The Wealth of Working Nations — Because of population aging, growth in GDP per capita and GDP per working-age adult have diverged across advanced economies; from 1998 to 2019 Japan's accumulated growth per working-age adult was 31.9% versus 29.5% in the US. The authors find a standard neoclassical growth model calibrated to each country's working-age population tracks output per working-age adult in most economies.

AI Summary. India's statistics ministry says its reformed GDP methodology, which treats inflation differently and draws on additional data sources, showed growth was higher than previously reported in two of the past three fiscal years, countering claims that official figures flattered growth. Economists question the manufacturing and import inflation adjustments.

Michael Stott and Andres Schipani Financial Times
Date Posted:

India purports to have improved its statistical methodology, yielding higher GDP growth than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years. Subramanian cautions, “the jury is out because of … inexplicable movements in two of the deflators.”

Did revised GDP methods overstate or understate reported growth?

Core argument: India's statistics chief Saurabh Garg said the reformed GDP methodology showed growth was actually higher than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years, countering allegations that the government had been flattering growth.

For years, critics have said India’s GDP figures were overly optimistic. But new methodology shows allegations that the government has been flattering growth were unfounded, according to the statistics chief of the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Saurabh Garg, a career civil servant who was brought in two years ago by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to overhaul the national statistics ministry, said the reformed methodology showed growth was actually higher than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years. The new methodology takes account of inflation differently and uses additional data sources. Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the Indian government from 2014-18, said that “clearly the new series is an improvement in terms of utilising the new and more reliable data sources” but added that its use of a manufacturing deflator, which was negative, and an import deflator, which showed dramatic swings over three years, had puzzled experts. “The jury is out because of these slightly inexplicable movements in two of the deflators,” he said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. India's statistics chief Saurabh Garg said the reformed GDP methodology showed growth was actually higher than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years, countering allegations that the government had been flattering growth.
  2. India's revised GDP methodology, overseen by Saurabh Garg after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government brought him in two years ago to overhaul the national statistics ministry, accounts for inflation differently and uses additional data sources.
  3. Arvind Subramanian, India's chief economic adviser from 2014-18, called the new series an improvement in utilising more reliable data sources but said a negative manufacturing deflator and an import deflator with dramatic swings had puzzled experts.

Related Articles:

  • India’s 20 Years of GDP Misestimation: New Evidence — The authors argue that India's 2015 GDP methodology used inappropriate deflators and indicators, breaking the historical link between reported GDP and exports, credit, taxes, electricity use, and industrial production. They estimate the economy grew 4–4½% on average from 2011 to 2023 rather than the reported 6%.

AI Summary. The New World screwworm, a fly whose larvae feed on the flesh of livestock and other warm-blooded animals, has been detected in a Texas calf — the first U.S. cattle case since its eradication in the 1960s — prompting a quarantine zone and release of millions of sterile flies.

Kevin Draper New York Times
Date Posted:

The previously eradicated New World screwworm has been detected in a calf in Texas. The reemergence of the screwworm could have a significant impact on the American cattle industry.

Has a livestock pest eradicated decades ago returned to US cattle?

Core argument: The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas, the first case found in U.S. cattle since the pest was eradicated from the country in the 1960s.

The New World screwworm — a fly whose larvae feed on the tissue of livestock, wildlife and pets — has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas. It is the first case found in cattle in the United States since the insect was eradicated from the country in the 1960s. The Agriculture Department has declared a 20-kilometer “infested zone” quarantine where the infected calf was found, increasing surveillance and limiting the movement of all warm-blooded animals out of that zone. Officials are dispersing millions of sterile New World screwworm flies, aerially and by truck, in the area. Releasing sterile flies, which mate with wild female flies and drive the population toward eradication, is the only way currently to control the spread of the fly. Only one facility, in Panama, produces sterile flies — around 100 million a week. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has recently broken ground for a $750 million production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas. The facility is expected to begin producing 100 million sterile flies per week in late 2027, and later up to 300 million per week.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas, the first case found in U.S. cattle since the pest was eradicated from the country in the 1960s.
  2. The Agriculture Department has declared a 20-kilometer "infested zone" quarantine where the infected calf was found, increasing surveillance and limiting movement of all warm-blooded animals out of that zone.

Related Articles:

  • Bird Flu Is Back — Bird flu has killed nearly 7m farmed birds in the United States in recent months, including about 1.3m turkeys, pressuring the nation's turkey supply. The virus has affected more than 180m farmed birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states, and infected at least 70 people, mostly farmworkers.
  • Cows Have Been Infected With a Second Form of Bird Flu — Dairy cows in Nevada were infected with D1.1, a form of H5N1 bird flu circulating in wild birds and poultry that is distinct from the B3.13 version found in more than 950 herds across 16 states. The finding indicates the virus has spilled from birds into cows at least twice.
  • US Has Worst Bird Flu Outbreak in Two Years at Iowa Egg Farm — Bird flu was detected in an Iowa egg-laying flock of 4.2m birds, the largest US outbreak since 2022, in a state that produces nearly 12% of the country's layer hens according to the US Department of Agriculture. The virus has also been infecting dairy cows across the US.

Friday, June 5, 2026

AI Summary. Young college graduates in occupations that can be done remotely saw a 0.65 percentage point larger rise in unemployment than trends among older workers in those jobs or young workers in non-remotable jobs would predict, driven by involuntary and persistent unemployment. The authors estimate remote work explains 64% of the increase in unemployment among young college graduates.

Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington, and Amanda Pallais National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Remote junior workers received 18% less feedback than their non-remote peers. The unemployment uptick in “remotable” roles during the pandemic persisted, and explains 64% of the increase in unemployment of young college grads btw 2017–2019 and 2022–2024.

Does remote work explain rising unemployment among young college graduates?

Core argument: Young college graduates in remotable occupations saw a 0.65 pp greater increase in unemployment than trends among older workers in remotable occupations or young workers in non-remotable occupations would predict, in a triple-difference regression.

Figure Xb presents results from a triple-difference regression comparing the change in the age gap in unemployment across remotable and non-remotable occupations. Young college graduates in remotable occupations experienced a 0.65 pp greater increase in unemployment than would have been expected based on trends among either older workers in remotable occupations or young workers in non-remotable ones. This differential is robust to controlling for occupations’ exposure to generative AI and its potentially heterogeneous effects across age groups. This figure also shows that the differential increase is driven by involuntary and persistent forms of unemployment, not voluntary job leaving nor temporary layoffs. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, between 2017−2019 and 2022−2024, remote work can explain 64% of the increase in unemployment among all young college graduates, many of whom enter remotable jobs. For this calculation, we scale our triple difference estimate (0.65 pp) by the share of young graduates in remotable jobs (61%); this would predict a 0.4 pp increase in all young college graduates’ unemployment, which is 64% of the realized increase of 0.63 pp.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Young college graduates in remotable occupations saw a 0.65 pp greater increase in unemployment than trends among older workers in remotable occupations or young workers in non-remotable occupations would predict, in a triple-difference regression.
  2. A back-of-the-envelope calculation scaling the 0.65 pp estimate by the 61% share of young graduates in remotable jobs indicates remote work can explain 64% of the 0.63 pp rise in young college graduates' unemployment between 2017–2019 and 2022–2024.
  3. The differential increase in unemployment is driven by involuntary and persistent unemployment rather than voluntary job leaving or temporary layoffs, and is robust to controlling for occupations' exposure to generative AI and its potentially heterogeneous effects across age groups.

Related Articles:

  • AI and Young-adult Jobs: The Real Mystery — Employment rates have declined for young adults both with and without college degrees, with non-degree holders faring marginally worse, and employment growth for young workers of all education levels has lagged that of other workers. Artificial intelligence can replace some lower-skilled jobs, but those jobs are too few to drive youth labor market weakness.
  • What the Data Says About Pandemic School Closures, Four Years Later — Among school districts with similar poverty levels, remote learning was associated with greater declines in student achievement, and a district-level analysis found community poverty rates and the length of school closures had roughly equal effects on outcomes. For each week spent remote, students in poor districts experienced steeper math losses than peers in richer districts.
  • Recovering from Covid — The authors find scant evidence of lingering pandemic effects on macroeconomic dynamics or on aggregate and sectoral growth, with the COVID shock and its anomalous dynamics largely gone. Estimated trend growth rates for consumption and employment in periods with a 4.1% unemployment rate are highly correlated, while industrial production reflects a long-term growth slowdown.

AI Summary. SpaceX is preparing to reserve as much as a quarter of its $75bn initial public offering float for individual investors, which would be the largest retail allocation attempted in a megacap listing. Retail investors hold about 42% of Tesla's public float, versus 34% for Apple.

Ryan McMorrow and George Steer Financial Times
Date Posted:

The SpaceX IPO will likely have the largest retail allocation ever, with banks reserving 25 to 30% of the $75B float for retail. Historically, in large offerings, retail is allocated 5 to 10%. Small investors hold ~42% of Musk’s Tesla.

Can retail investors claim a quarter of a record IPO float?

Core argument: SpaceX is preparing to reserve as much as a quarter of its $75bn IPO float for individual investors, which would be the largest retail allocation ever attempted in a megacap IPO, according to people familiar with the move.

SpaceX is preparing the largest retail allocation ever attempted in a megacap IPO, with Elon Musk seeking to reserve as much as a quarter of the company’s $75bn float for individual investors. According to people familiar with the move, the billionaire chief wants to place small shareholders near the centre of the rocket and satellite group’s ownership from the outset, reflecting Musk’s longstanding preference for retail investors over Wall Street institutions. Small investors hold about 42% of Tesla’s public float, compared with 34% for Apple, the second-highest of the Magnificent Seven stocks, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. They have, in turn, helped bolster Tesla’s shares, which trade at 382 times trailing earnings, even as growth has slowed.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. SpaceX is preparing to reserve as much as a quarter of its $75bn IPO float for individual investors, which would be the largest retail allocation ever attempted in a megacap IPO, according to people familiar with the move.
  2. Retail investors hold about 42% of Tesla's public float, versus 34% for Apple, the second-highest among the Magnificent Seven, according to S&P Capital IQ data.
  3. Tesla's shares trade at 382 times trailing earnings even as growth has slowed, helped by small investors.

Related Articles:

  • SpaceX — To Boldly Raise Money Where No IPO Has Gone Before — Goldman Sachs research finds that large companies floating 7% or less of their shares at initial public offering have 54% of shares in circulation two years later, while across its full sample of listings a 24% float at debut became 69% within 24 months.
  • An AI IPO Impact Update: The AnthroPix Effect May Be $5-Trillion+ — A closed-end fund holding small private stakes in OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic has more than doubled in under two weeks and trades at nearly triple its last reported net asset value. The author argues this reflects investor appetite for any exposure to pre-IPO artificial intelligence companies, which will pull money out of other assets.
  • Chart of the Day: U.S. Households at Record Equity Allocation Heading into AI IPOs — U.S. households hold a record share of their assets in equities, exceeding the dot-com and Nifty Fifty eras, while price-earnings multiples sit near all-time highs and fewer than 10 stocks account for almost 40% of the S&P 500's market value. The author argues equity ownership has become structural rather than discretionary, making markets simultaneously more stable and more fragile.

AI Summary. Scientists at Columbia University used base editing to replace individual genetic letters in the DNA of early human embryos without the damage often seen with the earlier gene-editing technology CRISPR. The technique could eventually allow parents to repair disease-causing mutations in embryos or select desired traits, a prospect some ethicists equate with eugenics.

Carl Zimmer New York Times
Date Posted:

Scientists at Columbia University successfully edited the DNA of early human embryos via a process called “base editing,” which has “unprecedented accuracy” relative to techniques like CRISPR.

Can gene editing correct embryo mutations without structural DNA damage?

Core argument: Columbia University scientists led by geneticist Dieter Egli edited the DNA of early human embryos with unprecedented accuracy, using base editing to replace individual genetic letters without the damage often observed with CRISPR.

Scientists at Columbia University have edited the DNA of early human embryos with unprecedented accuracy, an achievement that could open the way to babies engineered with particular characteristics. The prospect has fueled controversy for years. On the one hand, the technology might one day enable parents to safely repair disease-causing mutations in embryos. But it might also be used to select desired traits — a practice that some ethicists have argued is nothing short of eugenics. Dieter Egli, a geneticist at Columbia University who led the research, called for a public conversation about the pros and cons of altering embryonic DNA. “As a scientist, you can provide the data for discussion, but then essentially there you stop and let others take over,” he said. With a newer technology called base editing, Dr. Egli and his colleagues were able to meticulously replace individual genetic letters in sequences of DNA without causing the damage often observed with an earlier form of gene editing, CRISPR.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Columbia University scientists led by geneticist Dieter Egli edited the DNA of early human embryos with unprecedented accuracy, using base editing to replace individual genetic letters without the damage often observed with CRISPR.
  2. The embryo-editing advance might one day enable parents to repair disease-causing mutations in embryos, but could also be used to select desired traits, a practice some ethicists have argued is nothing short of eugenics.
  3. Dieter Egli called for a public conversation about the pros and cons of altering embryonic DNA, saying scientists can provide the data for discussion and then let others take over.

Related Articles:

  • World First: Ultra-Powerful CRISPR Treatment Trialled in a Person — A biotechnology company reported that a gene-editing treatment designed to correct the mutation behind chronic granulomatous disease, an immune disorder, restored a crucial enzyme's function in two-thirds of one patient's neutrophils with no serious side effects a month later. The results have not been peer-reviewed, and researchers say it is too soon to judge success.
  • Ancient DNA Reveals Pervasive Directional Selection Across West Eurasia — Analysis of ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians estimates selection coefficients at 9.7m genetic variants and finds pervasive directional selection, including increases in genetic scores for light skin pigmentation and negative selection against variants linked to type 2 diabetes risk and psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

AI Summary. Artificial intelligence company Anthropic is helping the US National Security Agency deploy its Mythos model for offensive cyber operations, with roughly half a dozen engineers embedded inside the agency to guide use of the technology and customize models, according to people familiar with the arrangement.

Cristina Criddle and Demetri Sevastopulo Financial Times
Date Posted:

The National Security Agency is using Mythos in offensive cyber operations despite Anthropic’s ongoing legal battle with the Pentagon.

Are AI companies embedding engineers to support offensive cyber operations?

Core argument: Anthropic has embedded about half a dozen forward-deployed engineers inside the US National Security Agency to guide use of its Mythos AI model and customize models for specific applications, according to two people familiar with the arrangement.

Anthropic is helping the US National Security Agency deploy its powerful Mythos AI model for offensive cyber operations, embedding engineers inside the agency despite an ongoing legal battle with the Pentagon. The San Francisco-based company had installed about half a dozen staff within the NSA as so-called forward-deployed engineers to guide the use of the technology and customize models for specific applications, two people familiar with the arrangement said. It remains unclear whether Anthropic’s engineers are assisting the NSA in active operations.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Anthropic has embedded about half a dozen forward-deployed engineers inside the US National Security Agency to guide use of its Mythos AI model and customize models for specific applications, according to two people familiar with the arrangement.
  2. Anthropic is helping the National Security Agency deploy Mythos for offensive cyber operations while the company remains in an ongoing legal battle with the Pentagon.
  3. Whether Anthropic's engineers are assisting the National Security Agency in active operations remains unclear.

Related Articles:

  • Misanthropic: On Mythos, Bad Human Behaviors and Systems Vulnerabilities — Anthropic reports that its Mythos model has detected thousands of high-severity cyber vulnerabilities, including ones found by chaining multiple obscure software weaknesses, and that these hacking skills are emergent rather than a designed capability. Mythos completed a corporate network attack simulation estimated to take an expert over 10 hours, which no other frontier model had solved.
  • China’s Own Mythos Is Coming — America Must Prepare — The authors argue the US can extend its estimated seven-month lead in artificial intelligence by closing gaps in export controls: halting all AI chip exports to China including less advanced models, curbing smuggling networks, blocking cloud and remote access to controlled chips and US models, and restricting chipmaking equipment.
  • White House Opposes Anthropic’s Plan to Expand Access to Mythos Model — The White House opposes Anthropic's proposal to extend access to its Mythos artificial-intelligence model to roughly 70 more companies and organizations, which would raise the total with access to about 120. Officials cited security concerns about a model capable of conducting cyberattacks, and doubts that Anthropic has enough computing power to serve that many users without degrading government use.

AI Summary. China views itself as winning the race in advanced manufacturing, and leads in sectors including batteries and autos, while the US government is betting that artificial intelligence will substantially enhance its power. Chinese leaders emphasize industrial output rather than treating AI as the transformative force reshaping geopolitics.

Chris Miller Financial Times
Date Posted:

Chris Miller argues that Beijing believes its lead in advanced manufacturing advantages China vis-a-vis the US. Washington, in turn, believes the US edge in AI will dramatically increase US power relative to Beijing.

Do China and the US bet on different sources of power?

Core argument: China believes it is winning the race for advanced manufacturing, and in key sectors such as batteries and autos it is.

China believes that it is winning the race for advanced manufacturing — and in key sectors such as batteries and autos, it is. Silicon Valley types talk of being “AGI pilled” — a reference to the film The Matrix — when referring to the belief that AI will become increasingly capable and economically transformative. The US government seems to be betting that AI will dramatically enhance US power, too. Beijing doesn’t appear worried. When Chinese leaders talk about “great changes unseen in a century,” they’re not talking about AI transforming geopolitics. Instead of being AGI-pilled, Xi and other Chinese leaders are industrial output-pilled. The next year will test which of these approaches is more valuable.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China believes it is winning the race for advanced manufacturing, and in key sectors such as batteries and autos it is.
  2. The US government appears to be betting that AI will dramatically enhance American power, echoing Silicon Valley's "AGI pilled" belief that AI will become increasingly capable and economically transformative.
  3. Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders are "industrial output-pilled" rather than AGI-pilled, invoking "great changes unseen in a century" without reference to AI transforming geopolitics, and the next year will test which approach is more valuable.

Related Articles:

  • How Should We Measure Economic Power? — The authors argue profits measure economic power because they show a firm can do what others can't, and by that metric U.S. firms dominate globally—with Japan and Europe significant and China second-tier—implying greater U.S. power than GDP or industrial output comparisons suggest. The gap favoring the U.S. is most pronounced in high-tech products.
  • How Much Is Donald Trump Costing America’s Economy? — Excluding artificial-intelligence-related categories, US non-residential fixed investment has contracted at roughly a 3% annual rate over the past year, versus average growth above 5% in the prior decade, running about $130bn below trend and cutting GDP growth by roughly 0.4 percentage points. Credit remains plentiful, with tight corporate bond spreads.
  • China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy — China's export growth is concentrated in upstream, higher-tech goods: exports of intermediate inputs rose 26% and capital goods 32% between 2021 and 2024, while consumption goods exports were broadly flat. This shift embeds China deeper in global production systems and aligns with its long-running import substitution strategy of localizing entire value chains.