Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, June 3, 2026

AI Summary. Achieving 60% on MMLU, a test of academic reasoning, once required a 540bn-parameter model but was reached by a 3.8bn-parameter model two years later, a 142x reduction in parameters. Models small enough to run on phones or sensors shift inference from data centers to devices, weakening the case for paying cloud providers per token.

Paul Kedrosky Applied Complexity
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Small models have increasingly closed the performance gap with frontier models. To Kedrosky, this implies “edge compute becomes real,” which in turn, at the margin, means reduced relative demand for data center-based versus local compute.

Are small AI models closing the gap with frontier models?

Core argument: Reaching 60% on MMLU, a test of academic reasoning, required a 540bn-parameter model in 2022 but only a 3.8bn-parameter model by 2024, a 142-fold parameter reduction in two years.

A quiet story in AI isn't that large models keep getting better, it's that small ones are catching up quickly. In 2022, reaching 60% on MMLU, a test of academic reasoning, required a 540-billion-parameter model. By 2024, a 3.8-billion-parameter model hit the same threshold — a 142-fold parameter reduction in two years. The direction is clear, and the implications are wide-ranging. Edge compute becomes real. Models that fit on a phone or a sensor don't need a data center. Inference shifts from hyperscaler to device, which is a different supply chain and a different competitive moat than anyone has built for. The data center API business model has a half-life. If a fine-tuned 7B model running locally can handle 80% of enterprise use cases, the case for paying per-token to a cloud provider shrinks fast. The most exposed providers are those whose moats are model quality rather than distribution, i.e., the capex-heavy frontier models. Compute becomes less scarce.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Reaching 60% on MMLU, a test of academic reasoning, required a 540bn-parameter model in 2022 but only a 3.8bn-parameter model by 2024, a 142-fold parameter reduction in two years.
  2. Models small enough to run on a phone or sensor shift inference from hyperscalers to devices, which involves a different supply chain and competitive moat than providers have built for.
  3. The case for paying per-token to a cloud provider shrinks if a fine-tuned 7B model running locally can handle 80% of enterprise use cases, leaving capex-heavy frontier providers whose moats rest on model quality rather than distribution most exposed.

Related Articles:

  • Commoditization, Orchestration, and the New AI Stack — The author argues that as incremental gains from larger AI training runs shrink, the return on additional computing power falls, weakening the case for the training spending that dominates data center demand. Survivors of model commoditization will be those owning the orchestration layer or the applications where outcomes are priced.
  • The Geopolitics of AI: Decoding the New Global Operating System — The performance gap between the top American and Chinese AI models narrowed from 9.3% to 1.7%, with Chinese firms relying on cheaper open-source models—DeepSeek prices usage 20-40x below OpenAI's ChatGPT. This price advantage could win adoption in developing countries and build dependency on Chinese AI ecosystems.
  • Misanthropic: On Mythos, Bad Human Behaviors and Systems Vulnerabilities — Anthropic reports that its Mythos model has detected thousands of high-severity cyber vulnerabilities, including ones found by chaining multiple obscure software weaknesses, and that these hacking skills are emergent rather than a designed capability. Mythos completed a corporate network attack simulation estimated to take an expert over 10 hours, which no other frontier model had solved.

AI Summary. A JPMorgan analysis found that more than 60% of US data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 has not yet begun construction, with another 7% delayed. Analysts and power-industry experts say Google's strategy of owning generation—including its $4.75bn purchase of wind and solar developer Intersect—and shifting computing loads to follow power supply could speed its grid connections.

Katherine Blunt Wall Street Journal
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Google is planning to build generation capacity alongside data centers to avoid power bottlenecks to bringing data centers online. The firm spent $4.75B to buy Intersect power, and signed a three-year deal with Voltus.

Is data-center construction falling behind schedule, and does owning power generation help?

Core argument: A JPMorgan analysis found that more than 60% of data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 is not yet under construction, with another 7% delayed.

A JPMorgan analysis found that more than 60% of data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 isn’t yet under construction, and another 7% is delayed. Analysts and power-industry experts [said Google's] strategy of securing its own sources of generation and investing in the ability to shift computing loads to follow power supply could allow it to get its data centers connected to the grid faster than competitors and provide new avenues for deploying its swelling war chest. This year, Google became the only tech giant to own a power company with the $4.75 billion acquisition of Intersect, a wind and solar developer that in recent years pivoted to building such projects to support data centers. Intersect has energy projects under development to supply multiple gigawatts of electricity. [This week] Google announced a three-year agreement with demand-response company Voltus to help create more capacity in PJM, the nation’s largest power market.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A JPMorgan analysis found that more than 60% of data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 is not yet under construction, with another 7% delayed.
  2. Google became the only tech giant to own a power company through its $4.75 billion acquisition of Intersect, a wind and solar developer that has energy projects under development to supply multiple gigawatts of electricity.
  3. Analysts and power-industry experts said Google's strategy of securing its own generation and shifting computing loads to follow power supply could connect its data centers to the grid faster than competitors.

Related Articles:

  • America’s Electricity Gap — US power consumption has risen more in the past two years than in the previous 15 combined, yet supply has not kept pace and electricity prices have climbed more in four years than in the prior 14. The US Energy Information Administration projects generation to grow another 4.6%, with commercial users including data centers driving most added demand.
  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.
  • U.S. Electricity Generation in 2025 Hit A Record, Again — U.S. electricity net generation reached a record 4.43 terawatt hours, up 2.8% from the prior year's high, contrasting with relatively flat generation from the mid-2000s to the early 2020s. Much of the recent demand growth comes from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, and the industrial sector.

AI Summary. A US executive order creates a voluntary framework under which artificial intelligence labs are asked to submit new models for government security reviews for up to 30 days before public release, down from the 90-day period in an earlier draft. The earlier draft was withheld over concerns that federal oversight of frontier models could hamper the growth of leading labs.

Joe Miller Financial Times
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The USG will review new AI models before their release. While some view the new process as “watered-down” relative to a previous proposal, Dean Ball argues the executive order is “clearly teeing up the infrastructure for a model licensing regime.”

Will AI labs voluntarily submit new models for government security reviews?

Core argument: Donald Trump's executive order asks AI labs to submit new models for security reviews for up to 30 days before public release, down from the 90-day review period in an earlier draft seen by the FT.

Donald Trump has signed a long-awaited executive order that creates a “voluntary framework” for the US to gain early access to cutting-edge AI models. The order is a watered-down version of an earlier draft, which was due to be signed last month but Trump pulled over concerns that federal oversight of frontier AI models might hamper the growth of leading labs. Under the order AI labs will be asked to submit their new models for security reviews “for a period of up to 30 days” before they are publicly released. The original executive order — a draft of which was seen by the FT — asked for a 90-day review period. Dean Ball, a former Trump adviser who last year wrote the administration’s AI Action Plan, called the order a “fairly major win for the safety contingent within the [administration]” and suggested it was “clearly teeing up the infrastructure for a model licensing regime”.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Donald Trump's executive order asks AI labs to submit new models for security reviews for up to 30 days before public release, down from the 90-day review period in an earlier draft seen by the FT.
  2. Trump pulled the earlier version of the order over concerns that federal oversight of frontier AI models might hamper the growth of leading labs, and signed instead a "voluntary framework" giving the US early access to cutting-edge models.
  3. Dean Ball, a former Trump adviser who wrote the administration's AI Action Plan, called the order a "fairly major win for the safety contingent" within the administration and suggested it was "clearly teeing up the infrastructure for a model licensing regime".

Related Articles:

  • Misanthropic: On Mythos, Bad Human Behaviors and Systems Vulnerabilities — Anthropic reports that its Mythos model has detected thousands of high-severity cyber vulnerabilities, including ones found by chaining multiple obscure software weaknesses, and that these hacking skills are emergent rather than a designed capability. Mythos completed a corporate network attack simulation estimated to take an expert over 10 hours, which no other frontier model had solved.
  • China’s Own Mythos Is Coming — America Must Prepare — The authors argue the US can extend its estimated seven-month lead in artificial intelligence by closing gaps in export controls: halting all AI chip exports to China including less advanced models, curbing smuggling networks, blocking cloud and remote access to controlled chips and US models, and restricting chipmaking equipment.
  • White House Opposes Anthropic’s Plan to Expand Access to Mythos Model — The White House opposes Anthropic's proposal to extend access to its Mythos artificial-intelligence model to roughly 70 more companies and organizations, which would raise the total with access to about 120. Officials cited security concerns about a model capable of conducting cyberattacks, and doubts that Anthropic has enough computing power to serve that many users without degrading government use.

AI Summary. Comparisons of living standards across countries can use "constant price" purchasing power parities, which extrapolate from a base year using national inflation measures, or "current price" parities recalculated annually; the debate over whether Europe has fallen behind the U.S. turns on which method is preferable. The two methods agree when inflation is measured consistently across countries.

Matt Klein The Overshoot
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Addressing whether intra-country growth comparisons should use constant or current price PPPs, Klein notes that for Japan, both give the same conclusion. ICT‑related price and quality‑adjustment asymmetries—while present—have not yielded large PPP drift.

Does the method of comparing prices across countries change living standards conclusions?

Core argument: The dispute over whether Europe's living standards have fallen relative to the U.S. turns on which purchasing power parity method is preferred: constant price PPPs anchored to a base year or current price PPPs recalculated each year.

One obvious approach would be to start from a given base year and then run the data forwards and backwards using national measures of inflation. This generates “constant price purchasing power parities”. In any given year, the relative purchasing power between two societies is sensitive to the starting benchmark, but the direction of travel always looks the same. The other obvious approach would be to recalculate the price parities each year, if possible, and then use those to compare incomes each year. This creates “current price purchasing power parities.” The argument about whether Europe’s living standards have fallen relative to the U.S. is an argument about whether one method is better than the other. In theory these should produce more or less the same answers as long as inflation is measured consistently across countries and as long as the mix of items tracked does not change. Sometimes, that is exactly what happens. Both methods produce essentially the same results when comparing Japanese and U.S. incomes over time, for example.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The dispute over whether Europe's living standards have fallen relative to the U.S. turns on which purchasing power parity method is preferred: constant price PPPs anchored to a base year or current price PPPs recalculated each year.
  2. Constant price purchasing power parities, built by running data forward and backward from a base year using national inflation measures, yield relative purchasing power that is sensitive to the starting benchmark, though the direction of travel looks the same.
  3. In theory the two purchasing power parity methods should produce roughly the same answers as long as inflation is measured consistently across countries and the mix of tracked items does not change, as happens when comparing Japanese and U.S. incomes.

Related Articles:

  • Europe Versus America: A Response to the Critics — The author argues that standard productivity measures do not carry the implications for cross-country comparisons of living standards and economic welfare that many economists assume, rather than that European productivity is mismeasured. Faster measured US productivity growth coexists with European relative productivity and purchasing power at current prices not declining.
  • The Mismeasurement of European Productivity — European productivity growth has trailed the United States for three decades, and measures using current purchasing-power-parity conversions versus national price deflators answer different questions. The authors argue the flat current-purchasing-power-parity series reflects changing the price yardstick each year rather than showing Europe is keeping pace.
  • The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — A European Union competitiveness report attributes the EU's labour productivity growth gap with the US largely to weaker activity in information and communications technology and large-scale digital services; excluding main ICT sectors, EU productivity was broadly at par with the US from 2000-2019. It estimates Europe's investment share must rise about 5 percentage points of GDP.

AI Summary. Victoria's Secret shares hit a record high after the lingerie retailer beat earnings estimates and raised its annual net sales guidance to as much as $7.13bn. The company has posted four consecutive quarters of annual revenue growth, with its bras gaining market share among 18- to 44-year-olds and growth in both the under-$50,000 and over-$200,000 income categories.

Lily Meier Bloomberg
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As the use of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss expands, lingerie sales are rising. Victoria’s Secret has posted four consecutive quarters of annual revenue growth, and its stock is up ~236% since the fall of 2024.

Is a focus on core products lifting a lingerie retailer's sales?

Core argument: Victoria's Secret raised its annual net sales guidance to as much as $7.13 billion and reported quarterly net sales of $1.56 billion for the period ended May 2, exceeding analyst estimates and sending shares to a record high.

Victoria’s Secret shares soared after the company beat earnings estimates and boosted its outlook, adding to signs that Chief Executive Officer Hillary Super’s turnaround plan is on track. The lingerie retailer raised its annual net sales guidance to as much as $7.13 billion and reported net sales of $1.56 billion for the quarter ended May 2, exceeding analysts estimates. The company has posted four consecutive quarters of annual revenue growth, with Victoria’s Secret bras gaining market share with 18- to 44-year-olds, and the retailer seeing growth in the under-$50,000 and over-$200,000 annual income categories.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Victoria's Secret raised its annual net sales guidance to as much as $7.13 billion and reported quarterly net sales of $1.56 billion for the period ended May 2, exceeding analyst estimates and sending shares to a record high.
  2. Victoria's Secret has posted four consecutive quarters of annual revenue growth, with its bras gaining market share among 18- to 44-year-olds.
  3. Victoria's Secret is seeing growth in both the under-$50,000 and over-$200,000 annual income categories, adding to signs that Chief Executive Officer Hillary Super's turnaround plan is on track.

Related Articles:

  • Today’s Most Important Technology — The share of patients taking semaglutide for weight control rather than type 2 diabetes rose from under 10% in 2019 to 41.7%. Obesity and overweight, affecting 1 in 8 people worldwide, cost the global economy $2tn — nearly 70 cents on the dollar from premature mortality and lost productivity — an impact projected to double by 2035 absent intervention.
  • National-Level and State-Level Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity Among Children, Adolescents, and Adults in the USA — An estimated 15.1m US children aged 5–14, 21.4m older adolescents aged 15–24, and 172m adults aged 25 and over had overweight or obesity, with adult prevalence highest in North Dakota for males (80.6%) and Mississippi for females (79.9%). Obesity prevalence among adolescents rose roughly 158–186% over three decades.
  • Lilly and Novo Whipsaw Wall Street With Split in Obesity Outlook — Eli Lilly launched lower-priced vials of its obesity drug Zepbound to extend supply beyond injector pens, later cutting vial prices by 50%, and resolved its shortage while rival Novo Nordisk's persisted. Ending the shortage required compounding pharmacies to stop selling copies of Lilly's medicine.

Thursday, June 4, 2026

AI Summary. The authors trace a channel from rising imports to lower domestic sales, employment, plant closures, profits, capacity utilization, and reduced investment in fixed capital and research. They note the computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the US manufacturing productivity slowdown, offshored production to Asia, reaching 84% import penetration.

Robert Gordon and Kenneth Ryu National Bureau of Economic Research
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Citing complementarities btw production and innovation, Gordon et al trace the origins of the end of productivity growth in U. S. manufacturing back to 2000, when sectoral output growth ceased amid increased import competition.

Do rising imports explain the US manufacturing productivity growth slowdown?

Core argument: The computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the U.S. manufacturing productivity growth slowdown, largely offshored production to Asia after 2005, reaching an import penetration ratio of 84% by 2018.

We trace a channel of causation from the arrival of imports to declining domestic sales and employment, plant closures, lower profits and capacity utilization, and less investment in fixed capital and R&D. The effect of imports on domestic innovation is more nuanced. Some authors argue that domestic manufacturing and innovation are complements; when production of components is offshored the growing distance from the production process inhibits further improvements that combine design and process innovation. The computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the manufacturing productivity growth slowdown, largely offshored production to Asia after 2005. By 2018 its import penetration ratio had reached 84%. This did not occur primarily because of lower labor costs. Instead the attraction of Asia was its emphasis on process innovation. “Manufacturing optimization” leads to the ability to ramp up production quickly at massive scale. Further explanations include government subsidies, geographically concentrated supplier clusters, and support for worker training.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The computer and electronic products industry, which contributed most to the U.S. manufacturing productivity growth slowdown, largely offshored production to Asia after 2005, reaching an import penetration ratio of 84% by 2018.
  2. The authors trace a channel of causation from the arrival of imports to declining domestic sales and employment, plant closures, lower profits and capacity utilization, and less investment in fixed capital and R&D.
  3. Asia's attraction lay less in lower labor costs than in its emphasis on process innovation, with "manufacturing optimization" allowing rapid production ramp-up at massive scale, alongside government subsidies, concentrated supplier clusters, and support for worker training.

Related Articles:

  • Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low? — Manufacturing productivity growth fell behind other sectors after computer and semiconductor manufacturing productivity, which had grown at roughly 15% and 11% a year, decelerated substantially. The authors also present suggestive evidence that quality improvements are missed in price measures, estimating manufacturing productivity growth is understated by 0.8 percentage points, including 1.7 points for durable goods.
  • What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds — The US imports roughly 40% of the goods it consumes, directly and through imported inputs, with labor-intensive goods like apparel almost entirely imported. The authors argue America's main comparative disadvantage is its cost of production, driven mainly by labor costs, with real estate costs and a strong dollar also contributing.
  • Speed Can Reindustrialize America — The US has a relative surplus of low-paid hourly workers and a shortage of high-skill workers, so many less productive US manufacturers could buy a robot but could not attract the talent to program it. China faces the opposite conditions, with underemployed STEM graduates, residency rules complicating coastal factory hiring, and robot programmers earning a fraction of US wages.

AI Summary. Because Social Security and Medicare benefits are politically untouchable, retirees effectively hold the most senior claim on US government resources while Treasury bondholders hold the riskiest one. On this argument, bondholders absorb adverse fiscal shocks through surprise inflation, financial repression, or both.

Hanno Lustig The Two Cents
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Lustig argues that bondholders in advanced economies are realizing they are facing higher inflation risk and thus may “sit at the bottom of the capital structure rather than the top,” given transfer recipients’ political power.

Do government bondholders, not retirees, hold the riskiest claim on public resources?

Core argument: Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, the boomers, effectively sit atop the US capital structure as the most senior claimants holding the safest tranche, given that Social Security is treated as the third rail of American politics.

Social Security is typically referred to as the third rail of American politics. If you buy into that notion, then these retirees collecting Social Security and Medicare checks, the boomers, effectively sit at the top of the US capital structure. If you pursue the analogy with the corporate capital structure, then these beneficiaries are effectively the most senior bondholders. They own the safest tranche. The owners of the Treasurys, the bondholders, sit at the bottom of the capital structure rather than the top. The Treasury owners end up with the riskiest tranche, absorbing adverse fiscal shocks through either surprise inflation or financial repression, or a combination of both. And there is a lot of risk to be absorbed.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, the boomers, effectively sit atop the US capital structure as the most senior claimants holding the safest tranche, given that Social Security is treated as the third rail of American politics.
  2. Treasury bondholders occupy the bottom of the US capital structure rather than the top, holding the riskiest tranche and absorbing adverse fiscal shocks through surprise inflation, financial repression, or a combination of both.

Related Articles:

  • Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic? — Government bonds severely underperform in wartime, in absolute terms and relative to equities, housing, and economic growth, unlike in financial crises when bonds tend to outperform stocks. The U.S. and U.K. reduced war-driven debt-to-GDP ratios without explicit default, using surprise inflation and financial repression that shifted fiscal burdens onto bondholders.
  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9tn (5.8% of GDP) to $3.1tn (6.7%) over a decade, above the 3.8% averaged over the past 50 years, with rising net interest costs driving much of the increase. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% to 120% of GDP.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.

AI Summary. Between 1976 and 2024 the trend labor force participation rate fell 10.1 percentage points for men and rose 8.2 points for women. Population aging lowered participation by about 4 points for each gender and rising education raised it (+6 for women, +3 for men), but the divergence is dominated by participation trends within age-gender groups.

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Greeshma Avaradi and Taerin Kim Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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~9pp of the ~23pp decline in US men’s LFP relative to that of women btw 1976 and 2024 is due to a negative group-specific trend among less-educated men and about 6pp is due to an analogous positive trend among high-education women.

What explains the divergence in male and female labor force participation?

Core argument: Trend labor force participation for men declined 10.1 percentage points between 1976 and 2024, while trend participation for women rose 8.2 percentage points.

Figure 2 unpacks the aggregate pattern [Figure 1 in the gallery] as separate participation trends for men and women. Each panel shows a smooth red line for the cumulative change in the gender-specific LFP trend from 1976 to 2024. The figure also shows contributions to this cumulative change from changes in age composition (green line), changes in education composition (light blue line), and changes in group-specific trend LFP (dark blue line). The figure shows how much of each gender’s change in its LFP trend since 1976 comes from each source. [It] shows that, btw 1976 and 2024, the trend LFP for men declined 10.1 percentage points while the trend LFP for women increased 8.2 percentage points. Population aging pushed down the LFP rate about the same amount for both genders, –4 points. Rising education pushed it up for both genders, though the contribution was somewhat more important for women (+6 points) than for men (+3 points). However, the divergent trends for men and women are dominated by the age-gender group-specific LFP trends rather than by changes in the education and age compositions for each gender.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Trend labor force participation for men declined 10.1 percentage points between 1976 and 2024, while trend participation for women rose 8.2 percentage points.
  2. Population aging subtracted about 4 percentage points from trend participation for both men and women, while rising education added 6 points for women and 3 points for men.
  3. The divergence between male and female participation trends is dominated by age-gender group-specific participation trends rather than by changes in each gender's age and education composition.

Related Articles:

  • Women, Men and Jobs — The share of U.S. prime-age men out of the labor force has more than quadrupled from about 2.5% to around 11%, with most supported by parents, wives, or partners rather than disability insurance. The shift toward knowledge and services has reduced male-coded jobs across all advanced countries, including Germany.
  • Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates — Marriage rates for college-educated women have remained stable over the past fifty years even as the relative supply of college-educated men declined, with the overall decline in marriage driven almost entirely by fewer marriages between non-college women and non-college men. The education gap in women's marriage rates is larger in areas where non-college men face the highest joblessness and incarceration.
  • Post-Pandemic Recovery for America’s Prime Age Labor Force: A Tale of Two Sexes — Prime-age women's labor force participation climbed about 5 points above its pre-pandemic level over a decade, while prime-age men's rose barely a point, only just regaining pre-pandemic levels. Despite economic expansion and labor shortages, work rates for prime-age American men are barely as high as at the trough of the severe Reagan-era recession.

AI Summary. India's fertility has fallen further and faster than expected, with the total fertility rate at 1.3 in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and 1.5 across urban India, raising concern that the country is following China, whose population has been shrinking. Poorer northern states appear to be converging with wealthier ones.

Economist Staff The Economist
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As recently as 2019, Narendra Modi warned India was facing a “population explosion.” Today, India’s total fertility rate of 1.9 is below replacement, and the TFR in major cities like Delhi (1.2) is lower than that of advanced economies.

Is India's fertility falling faster than expected across rich and poor states?

Core argument: The total fertility rate stands at 1.3 in both Tamil Nadu (roughly 77m people) and West Bengal (100m), matching Finland, while urban India averages 1.5.

Officials worry that India is on a similar path to China, whose population has been shrinking since 2021. Fertility has fallen much further and faster than expected, says Neelkanth Mishra, chief economist of Axis Bank. In both Tamil Nadu, a state of roughly 77m, and West Bengal (100m) the TFR stands at 1.3, the same as in Finland. The average for urban India is 1.5. For a long time demographers thought poor northern states would delay India’s demographic transition. Now they seem to be converging with wealthier, less teeming parts of the country.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The total fertility rate stands at 1.3 in both Tamil Nadu (roughly 77m people) and West Bengal (100m), matching Finland, while urban India averages 1.5.
  2. Neelkanth Mishra, chief economist of Axis Bank, says Indian fertility has fallen much further and faster than expected, and officials worry India is on a similar path to China, whose population has been shrinking since 2021.
  3. Demographers long expected poor northern Indian states to delay the country's demographic transition, but those states now appear to be converging with wealthier, less teeming parts of India.

Related Articles:

  • The Demographic Future of Humanity: Facts and Consequences — The authors estimate the world total fertility rate is around 2.17, below the global replacement rate of roughly 2.21, meaning humanity is already below replacement, with fertility and births falling faster than anticipated. They project middle-income countries' fertility may fall below that of rich countries outside East Asia, with emigration compounding population decline.
  • World Depopulation: Prospects and Implications — The US is projected to account for a growing share of the rich world's labor force, youth, and highly educated talent, with continuing population and labor force growth and only moderate aging through 2050. Its fertility, though below replacement, exceeds that of East Asian and nearly all European countries, and sustained legal immigration is essential to this demographic advantage.
  • The Wealth of Working Nations — Because of population aging, growth in GDP per capita and GDP per working-age adult have diverged across advanced economies; from 1998 to 2019 Japan's accumulated growth per working-age adult was 31.9% versus 29.5% in the US. The authors find a standard neoclassical growth model calibrated to each country's working-age population tracks output per working-age adult in most economies.

AI Summary. India's statistics ministry says its reformed GDP methodology, which treats inflation differently and draws on additional data sources, showed growth was higher than previously reported in two of the past three fiscal years, countering claims that official figures flattered growth. Economists question the manufacturing and import inflation adjustments.

Michael Stott and Andres Schipani Financial Times
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India purports to have improved its statistical methodology, yielding higher GDP growth than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years. Subramanian cautions, “the jury is out because of … inexplicable movements in two of the deflators.”

Did revised GDP methods overstate or understate reported growth?

Core argument: India's statistics chief Saurabh Garg said the reformed GDP methodology showed growth was actually higher than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years, countering allegations that the government had been flattering growth.

For years, critics have said India’s GDP figures were overly optimistic. But new methodology shows allegations that the government has been flattering growth were unfounded, according to the statistics chief of the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Saurabh Garg, a career civil servant who was brought in two years ago by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to overhaul the national statistics ministry, said the reformed methodology showed growth was actually higher than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years. The new methodology takes account of inflation differently and uses additional data sources. Arvind Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the Indian government from 2014-18, said that “clearly the new series is an improvement in terms of utilising the new and more reliable data sources” but added that its use of a manufacturing deflator, which was negative, and an import deflator, which showed dramatic swings over three years, had puzzled experts. “The jury is out because of these slightly inexplicable movements in two of the deflators,” he said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. India's statistics chief Saurabh Garg said the reformed GDP methodology showed growth was actually higher than previously reported for two of the past three fiscal years, countering allegations that the government had been flattering growth.
  2. India's revised GDP methodology, overseen by Saurabh Garg after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government brought him in two years ago to overhaul the national statistics ministry, accounts for inflation differently and uses additional data sources.
  3. Arvind Subramanian, India's chief economic adviser from 2014-18, called the new series an improvement in utilising more reliable data sources but said a negative manufacturing deflator and an import deflator with dramatic swings had puzzled experts.

Related Articles:

  • India’s 20 Years of GDP Misestimation: New Evidence — The authors argue that India's 2015 GDP methodology used inappropriate deflators and indicators, breaking the historical link between reported GDP and exports, credit, taxes, electricity use, and industrial production. They estimate the economy grew 4–4½% on average from 2011 to 2023 rather than the reported 6%.

AI Summary. The New World screwworm, a fly whose larvae feed on the flesh of livestock and other warm-blooded animals, has been detected in a Texas calf — the first U.S. cattle case since its eradication in the 1960s — prompting a quarantine zone and release of millions of sterile flies.

Kevin Draper New York Times
Date Posted:

The previously eradicated New World screwworm has been detected in a calf in Texas. The reemergence of the screwworm could have a significant impact on the American cattle industry.

Has a livestock pest eradicated decades ago returned to US cattle?

Core argument: The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas, the first case found in U.S. cattle since the pest was eradicated from the country in the 1960s.

The New World screwworm — a fly whose larvae feed on the tissue of livestock, wildlife and pets — has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas. It is the first case found in cattle in the United States since the insect was eradicated from the country in the 1960s. The Agriculture Department has declared a 20-kilometer “infested zone” quarantine where the infected calf was found, increasing surveillance and limiting the movement of all warm-blooded animals out of that zone. Officials are dispersing millions of sterile New World screwworm flies, aerially and by truck, in the area. Releasing sterile flies, which mate with wild female flies and drive the population toward eradication, is the only way currently to control the spread of the fly. Only one facility, in Panama, produces sterile flies — around 100 million a week. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has recently broken ground for a $750 million production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas. The facility is expected to begin producing 100 million sterile flies per week in late 2027, and later up to 300 million per week.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in La Pryor, Texas, the first case found in U.S. cattle since the pest was eradicated from the country in the 1960s.
  2. The Agriculture Department has declared a 20-kilometer "infested zone" quarantine where the infected calf was found, increasing surveillance and limiting movement of all warm-blooded animals out of that zone.

Related Articles:

  • Bird Flu Is Back — Bird flu has killed nearly 7m farmed birds in the United States in recent months, including about 1.3m turkeys, pressuring the nation's turkey supply. The virus has affected more than 180m farmed birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states, and infected at least 70 people, mostly farmworkers.
  • Cows Have Been Infected With a Second Form of Bird Flu — Dairy cows in Nevada were infected with D1.1, a form of H5N1 bird flu circulating in wild birds and poultry that is distinct from the B3.13 version found in more than 950 herds across 16 states. The finding indicates the virus has spilled from birds into cows at least twice.
  • US Has Worst Bird Flu Outbreak in Two Years at Iowa Egg Farm — Bird flu was detected in an Iowa egg-laying flock of 4.2m birds, the largest US outbreak since 2022, in a state that produces nearly 12% of the country's layer hens according to the US Department of Agriculture. The virus has also been infecting dairy cows across the US.