Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, May 14, 2026

AI Summary. Applying historical base rates to OpenAI's published sales forecasts, the authors find that no U.S. public company in roughly 18,900 firm-period observations from 1950 to 2024 achieved five-year sales growth as fast as the company projects. Reported forecasts imply compound annual growth rates ranging from 85% to 118%.

Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan Morgan Stanley
Date Posted:

Mauboussin and Callahan note that OpenAI’s 2030 earnings forecast implies a 5 year compound annual growth rate of 85%, which would be unprecedented if realized. “No company has ever grown that fast from beginning sales of that amount.”

Has any public company ever matched the sales growth AI firms project?

Core argument: Press-reported forecasts of OpenAI sales reaching $145 billion in 2029 from $3.7 billion in 2024 imply a 108% five-year compound annual growth rate, later raised to $184 billion, or a 118% rate.

We applied base rates to the projected sales growth rates of a couple of companies, including OpenAI, a leader in artificial intelligence research. In particular, we focused on forecasts published in the press that suggested the company would have sales of $145 billion in 2029, up from $3.7 billion in 2024. That is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108%. Shortly after the report was written, the company increased its sales projection for 2029 to $184 billion. That is a CAGR of 118% from 2024. We asked how plausible these forecasts are in the context of history. To answer, we looked at the 5-year sales growth rates for all U.S. public companies from 1950 to 2024, which included about 18,900 firm-period observations. No company had ever grown that fast. OpenAI is reported to have had sales of $13.1 billion in 2025. The company forecasts $284 billion in 2030, a 5-year CAGR of 85%. Here again, no company has ever grown that fast from beginning sales of that amount.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Press-reported forecasts of OpenAI sales reaching $145 billion in 2029 from $3.7 billion in 2024 imply a 108% five-year compound annual growth rate, later raised to $184 billion, or a 118% rate.
  2. Across roughly 18,900 firm-period observations of five-year sales growth for all U.S. public companies from 1950 to 2024, no company had ever grown as fast as OpenAI's projected rates.
  3. OpenAI is reported to have had sales of $13.1 billion in 2025 and forecasts $284 billion in 2030, an 85% five-year compound annual growth rate that no company has achieved from that starting sales level.

Related Articles:

  • Bayes and Base Rates — Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure has reached a scale comparable to some of the largest investment booms in U.S. history, with firms issuing historically high growth forecasts. Among U.S. public companies with $2–5bn in starting sales from 1950 to 2024, none sustained the roughly 108% five-year annual growth rate implied by OpenAI's revenue projection.
  • One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets — Over a century, U.S. publicly traded stocks generated roughly $91tn in shareholder wealth enhancement, with returns strongly positively skewed and dominated by a relatively small number of high-performing firms. Because most possible outcomes fall below the mean in a skewed distribution, the authors argue financial planning should focus on median outcomes or the full distribution.
  • An AI IPO Impact Update: The AnthroPix Effect May Be $5-Trillion+ — A closed-end fund holding small private stakes in OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic has more than doubled in under two weeks and trades at nearly triple its last reported net asset value. The author argues this reflects investor appetite for any exposure to pre-IPO artificial intelligence companies, which will pull money out of other assets.

AI Summary. The US Treasury sold $25bn of new 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.046%, the first time 30-year debt has been issued at a 5% yield since 2007. Yields rose after official data showed wholesale inflation at 6%, its highest since 2022, while consumer inflation reached a three-year high of 3.8%.

Myles McCormick and Kate Duguid Financial Times
Date Posted:

A Treasury sale of $25B of new 30-year debt saw yields reach 5.046%, the first time since 2007 a 30-year auction saw yields with a 5 handle, as new data showed that wholesale inflation had jumped to 6% in April, its highest level since 2022.

Are rising inflation readings pushing long-term Treasury yields to 5%?

Core argument: The US Treasury sold $25bn of new 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.046%, the first time since 2007 that US 30-year debt cleared at a 5% yield.

The US government has sold 30-year debt at a 5% yield for the first time since 2007 amid mounting signs that Donald Trump’s war in Iran has unleashed a new surge in inflation. The Treasury Department issued $25bn of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday, with the high yield at auction reaching 5.046%. Earlier in the day, yields on US debt, which move inversely to prices, rose after official data showed wholesale inflation had jumped to 6% in April, its highest level since 2022. Wholesale prices are often seen as a forerunner of consumer inflation, which has already risen to a three-year high of 3.8% in April.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The US Treasury sold $25bn of new 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.046%, the first time since 2007 that US 30-year debt cleared at a 5% yield.
  2. US wholesale inflation jumped to 6% in April, its highest level since 2022, and yields on US debt rose after the official data were released.
  3. US consumer inflation reached a three-year high of 3.8% in April, and wholesale prices are often seen as a forerunner of consumer inflation.

Related Articles:

  • Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic? — Government bonds severely underperform in wartime, in absolute terms and relative to equities, housing, and economic growth, unlike in financial crises when bonds tend to outperform stocks. The U.S. and U.K. reduced war-driven debt-to-GDP ratios without explicit default, using surprise inflation and financial repression that shifted fiscal burdens onto bondholders.
  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9tn (5.8% of GDP) to $3.1tn (6.7%) over a decade, above the 3.8% averaged over the past 50 years, with rising net interest costs driving much of the increase. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% to 120% of GDP.
  • Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries, 2020-2022 — Across 21 economies, the authors find that headline and core inflation responded positively to a measure of government spending increases scaled by pre-pandemic debt-to-GDP and average debt duration. Estimated coefficients of 0.4–0.5 suggest 40–50% of the extra spending was financed through inflation, with the rest through conventional public finance.

AI Summary. Prices for locally produced U.S. services are rising about 1–1.5 percentage points faster than in the years just before the pandemic, leaving underlying inflation as far from the Federal Reserve's goals as it was three years ago. Prices for manufacturing components and data-center-related loaded circuit boards have also risen.

Matt Klein The Overshoot
Date Posted:

Notwithstanding the soaring prices of components for manufacturing, Klein argues that “the most important thing to understand about US inflation is that the prices of locally-produced services continue to rise about 1–1.5pp faster” than pre-pandemic.

Is underlying services inflation still running above pre-pandemic rates?

Core argument: Prices of locally produced U.S. services are rising about 1–1.5 percentage points faster than in the years immediately preceding the pandemic, and the pace has accelerated over the past year.

Tariffs, cloud companies’ insatiable demand for (imported) data center equipment, and the disruption to the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz rightly get a lot of attention. But the most important thing to understand about U.S. inflation is that the prices of locally-produced services continue to rise about 1-1.5 percentage points faster than in the years immediately preceding the pandemic—and the pace has been accelerating over the past year. Even without the unwelcome “one-time things” pushing up prices, underlying inflation would still be just as far off from the Federal Reserve’s goals as it was three years ago. While higher goods prices are not the most important part of the U.S. inflation story, it is nevertheless striking how much prices have been rising for a range of goods that are not directly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “Components for manufacturing” are rising faster than at any point in 2021-2022. Perhaps the most extreme example is a group of goods that are not subject to tariffs, but that are in high demand for their use in data centers: “Printed Circuit Assemblies, Loaded Boards, Modules and Consumer External Modems”. These items, which are part of “supplies to manufacturing”, have tripled in price since last summer.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Prices of locally produced U.S. services are rising about 1–1.5 percentage points faster than in the years immediately preceding the pandemic, and the pace has accelerated over the past year.
  2. Even without one-time price shocks, underlying U.S. inflation would remain as far from the Federal Reserve's goals as it was three years ago.
  3. Prices for "components for manufacturing" are rising faster than at any point in 2021–2022, and printed circuit assemblies, loaded boards, modules and consumer external modems, which are not subject to tariffs but are in high demand for data centers, have tripled in price since last summer.

Related Articles:

  • The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly — Variation in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index that inflation and unemployment cannot explain is strongly correlated with growth in consumer borrowing costs, such as mortgage and car loan rates. The authors estimate that including interest payments and homeownership costs in the consumer price index would raise measured inflation from 3% to 9%.
  • Prices at the Pump Are Wiping Out Wage Gains — US inflation exceeded year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings, with wages up 3.6% against 3.8% inflation pushed up by surging fuel costs, according to the Labor Department. After seasonal adjustment and rounding, that leaves inflation-adjusted hourly wages down 0.3%.
  • US Inflation Accelerates as Gas, Rent and Food Prices Climb — US consumer prices rose 3.8% from a year earlier, driven by higher gasoline and grocery costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation outpaced wage growth, leaving inflation-adjusted wages lower than a year earlier for the first time in three years.

AI Summary. District-level test score data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford show reading scores down over the past decade in 83% of districts with available data and math scores down in 70%, with declines spanning rich and poor districts and racial and geographic lines. Education experts attribute the declines to no single cause.

Claire Cain Miller, Francesca Paris and Sarah Mervosh New York Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Btw 2015 and 2025, 70% of American school districts saw a decline in math scores and 83% a drop in reading scores. The losses cut across demographic groups, and are not merely a consequence of the pandemic.

Are US test score declines widespread across districts and demographics?

Core argument: Reading scores fell over the past decade in 83% of U.S. school districts with available data and math scores fell in 70%, according to district-level data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford.

Almost everywhere in America, students are performing worse than their peers were 10 years ago, according to new district-level test score data released by the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford. Compared with a decade earlier, reading scores were down last year in 83% of school districts where data was available, and math scores were down in 70%. The declines have affected both rich and poor districts and crossed racial and geographic divides, [though the biggest losses have been among the lowest-achieving students]. From 2017 to 2019, students lost as much ground in reading as they did during the pandemic, and reading scores continued to fall at a similar rate through 2024. Education experts say there is no single reason for the declines. But the timing provides some clues. Students’ test scores had been increasing since 1990 — then abruptly stopped in the mid-2010s. That coincided with two events: an easing of federal school accountability under No Child Left Behind, which was replaced in 2015, and the rise of smartphones, social media and personalized school laptops.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Reading scores fell over the past decade in 83% of U.S. school districts with available data and math scores fell in 70%, according to district-level data from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford.
  2. The declines spanned rich and poor districts and crossed racial and geographic divides, with the biggest losses among the lowest-achieving students.
  3. U.S. test scores rose from 1990 until abruptly stopping in the mid-2010s, which coincided with the 2015 replacement of No Child Left Behind and the rise of smartphones, social media and personalized school laptops, though education experts point to no single cause.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends — US student test scores peaked in the early 2010s; from that peak to the pandemic, scores fell for students at the 10th and 25th percentiles while rising slightly at the 75th and 90th. After the pandemic, scores fell across all percentile groups, with much larger declines among lower-performing students.
  • How Mississippi Transformed Its Schools From Worst to Best — Adjusted for poverty and student demographics, Mississippi ranks first nationally in fourth-grade reading and math and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute. The state changed reading instruction and adopted accountability policies that credit schools for student progress, with double credit for the bottom 25%.

AI Summary. The number of recent Chinese graduates returning home to seek jobs has more than doubled in recent years, according to a report by Chinese recruiting platform Zhaopin, with the return of top technology talent carrying implications for American economic competitiveness.

Hannah Miao and Jon Emont Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

~80% of Chinese nationals who earned a doctorate from a US school btw July 2023 and June 2024 wanted to stay in the US. However, according to Chinese recruiter Zhaopin, the number of Chinese nationals seeking to return home grew 12% y/y in 2025.

Are more Chinese tech graduates returning home, weakening American competitiveness?

Core argument: The number of recent Chinese graduates returning home to seek jobs grew 12% in 2025 from the prior year and has more than doubled since 2018, according to a report by Chinese recruiting platform Zhaopin.

There’s a longstanding name within China for those going back home—“sea turtles,” a pun on the Mandarin term for overseas returnees, haigui, that also evokes female sea turtles’ instinct to return to their natal beach after years of migrating around the world’s oceans. But the trend as it relates to top tech talent today has implications for American economic competitiveness, both now and in the future. The number of recent Chinese graduates returning home to seek jobs grew 12% in 2025 from the previous year, and the figure has more than doubled since 2018, according to a report by Chinese recruiting platform Zhaopin.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The number of recent Chinese graduates returning home to seek jobs grew 12% in 2025 from the prior year and has more than doubled since 2018, according to a report by Chinese recruiting platform Zhaopin.
  2. Returnees to China are long known domestically as "sea turtles," a pun on the Mandarin term haigui that evokes female sea turtles returning to their natal beach after years migrating the world's oceans.
  3. The return of China's top tech talent carries implications for American economic competitiveness both now and in the future.

Related Articles:

  • China and the Future Of Science — China graduates about 5x as many medical and biomedical students as the US each year, 7x as many engineers, and nearly double the number of science and engineering PhDs, while one-sixth to one-fifth of US science and engineering graduates are themselves Chinese. One study found returning Chinese scientists lead-author 2.5x more papers than peers who stay in the US.
  • China Lures Home Its Top AI Talent From Silicon Valley — Elite artificial intelligence researchers have left US firms including Google DeepMind and OpenAI for Chinese companies such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba. Three China- and San Francisco-based headhunters say they relocated more than 30 US-based researchers to China over 12 months, up from low single digits the prior year.
  • Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire — Regrouping US college majors to match Chinese disciplines yields a 2:1 ratio of science and engineering to humanities and social sciences, the same ratio as in China. The author argues America's building slowdown reflects structural economic shifts—urbanization reached 70% by 1960 and 85% by 2020, shifting needs toward maintenance—rather than a lawyerly culture.

AI Summary. China's export-oriented goods sector is supporting GDP growth of 5% year-on-year, with growth forecast at 4.7% for 2026, though the economy remains highly unbalanced. The authors expect strong production and sluggish demand to push the current account surplus further to record levels as a share of global output, leaving the yuan undervalued by more than 20% against the dollar.

Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs
Date Posted:

Pointing to China’s current account surplus, GS estimates the Yuan is more than 20% undervalued relative to the dollar and forecasts “significant appreciation, with a new target of 6.50 in 12 months.”

Is China's export strength keeping growth near 5% while imbalances widen?

Core argument: China's Q1 GDP grew 5% year-on-year on strength in the export-oriented goods sector, with the 2026 forecast held at 4.7% though the economy remains very unbalanced.

In the run-up to this week's Trump-Xi summit, China’s economy continues to benefit from strength in the export-oriented goods sector. This kept Q1 GDP growth at 5% year-on-year and our 2026 forecast at 4.7%, but the economy remains very unbalanced. While higher prices for imported energy should temporarily halt the increase in the current account surplus this year, we expect the combination of strong production and sluggish demand to push it further into unprecedented territory as a share of global GDP in subsequent years. The clearest market implication is that CNY is undervalued, especially against the US dollar where our FX strategists estimate a gap of more than 20% and have doubled down on their forecast of significant appreciation, with a new target of 6.50 in 12 months.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's Q1 GDP grew 5% year-on-year on strength in the export-oriented goods sector, with the 2026 forecast held at 4.7% though the economy remains very unbalanced.
  2. Higher prices for imported energy should temporarily halt the rise in China's current account surplus this year, but strong production and sluggish demand are expected to push it further into unprecedented territory as a share of global GDP thereafter.
  3. FX strategists estimate the CNY is undervalued against the US dollar by more than 20% and forecast significant appreciation, with a target of 6.50 in 12 months.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 — The authors argue China's official growth figures are inconsistent with ten consecutive quarters of deflation, estimating that real GDP is around 11% below official levels, with most of the adjustment in investment. That would imply a drop of roughly 9 percentage points in China's share of global investment, helping explain its export surge.
  • The Dangerous Triumph Of Neo-Mercantilism — Neo-mercantilism is thriving in both China, which pairs infant-industry promotion with large trade surpluses, and in a United States focused on external deficits and protecting domestic markets. The author argues this will likely fracture the world economy, and that a new multilateral treaty could include a mechanism to combat large structural trade surpluses.
  • China’s Currency is Now Facing Substantial Appreciation Pressure — China's yuan faces appreciation pressure while Beijing maintains its commitment to currency stability, testing trading partners' willingness to absorb China's growing export surplus. If nominal appreciation is limited to a few percentage points, the real effective exchange rate stays at its depreciated level and China is likely to keep gaining global market share.

Friday, May 15, 2026

AI Summary. California's healthcare sector drives its job growth despite the state having the sixth-youngest population by share aged 65 or older and residents reporting fewer chronic conditions than almost anywhere else. State policy is one plausible partial explanation: expanded Medicaid coverage, including for undocumented residents, cut the uninsured share to 5.9%, while spending per enrollee is rising faster than enrollment.

Kenan Fikri and Thomas Cronin Agglomerations
Date Posted:

California is trading high wage private sector jobs for lower wage jobs in the healthcare sector, which now account for 17.4% of all jobs in CA, up 3pp in four years – twice the national growth rate.

Is healthcare job growth in a young, healthy state driven by policy?

Core argument: Only 5.9% of Californians lacked health insurance in 2024, a record low, after a decade of Medi-Cal expansion that extended coverage to groups including undocumented populations.

California’s population is not especially old or feeble. Only 16.5% of its population is 65 or older, making it the sixth-youngest state on this measure. Californians also report fewer chronic health conditions than almost anywhere else. So why is its healthcare sector so mighty? One plausible partial explanation is that state policies are driving the outcome — in other words, that government subsidies are allowing more people to access more healthcare and social support, stoking demand. Enrollment in Medi-Cal, the state’s medicaid program, has increased significantly over the past decade as the state has continuously expanded coverage, including in recent years to undocumented populations. As a result, only 5.9% of Californians went without health insurance in 2024, a record low. The extensive margin (new enrollment) isn’t the only one at work; the intensive margin (use of healthcare services) is too. The state legislature has noted that Medi-Cal spending per enrollee is increasing even faster than the number of enrolled. Both greater utilization and greater coverage are driving demand and creating jobs in the process.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Only 5.9% of Californians lacked health insurance in 2024, a record low, after a decade of Medi-Cal expansion that extended coverage to groups including undocumented populations.
  2. California's healthcare sector strength is unlikely to stem from an aged or unwell population, since 16.5% of residents are 65 or older — the sixth-youngest state on that measure — and Californians report fewer chronic conditions than almost anywhere else.
  3. The California legislature has noted that Medi-Cal spending per enrollee is rising faster than enrollment, indicating that greater utilization as well as broader coverage is driving healthcare demand and job creation.

Related Articles:

  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Government transfers rose from 8.2% of Americans' total personal income in 1970 to 17.6% in 2022, making them the third largest income source after work and investments. The share of U.S. counties drawing a quarter or more of personal income from transfers rose from under 1% in 1970 to 53% in 2022.
  • Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve? — The authors estimate that a slowdown in US health care spending reflects technology-associated changes in health and site of care (21% of the slowdown, double that in Medicare), more elastic long-run supply (6%), market changes reducing and making demand more elastic (11–27%), improved population health (7%), and slower price growth net of upcoding (24%).
  • Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults — Using linked Census and tax records for 37m low-income adults, the authors estimate that state Medicaid expansions raised enrollment by 12 percentage points and cut mortality among low-income adults by 2.5%, implying a 21% reduction in the mortality hazard of new enrollees. They estimate direct budgetary costs of $5.4m per life saved and $179,000 per life-year saved.

AI Summary. Miami has added investment banking and portfolio management jobs but has grown less than New York City, trailing Salt Lake City in banking growth and Atlanta in portfolio management growth. Measured by employment levels in both segments combined, South Florida ranks fifth among counties, behind Manhattan, Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles.

Aziz Sunderji Financial Times
Date Posted:

NYC’s billionaires moved south: $5B in taxable income left for Miami in 2020–21, 10x the return flow. But most of the firms stayed, as Miami added only 3K finance jobs since 2019.

Is Miami becoming a major hub for institutional finance jobs?

Core argument: South Florida (Miami and Palm Beach) ranks only fifth among US counties by combined employment in investment banking and portfolio management, behind Manhattan, Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles.

For the two crucial segments of institutional finance — banking (what the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls “Investment Banking & Securities Intermediation”) and fund management (“Portfolio Management & Investment Advice”)—Miami has indeed grown, but far less than New York City. Miami isn’t even growing the second fastest. For banking, Salt Lake City grew faster (Goldman Sachs has steadily expanded its Salt Lake City campus into the firm’s third-largest US hub), and for portfolio management, Atlanta grew more rapidly (anchored by Invesco, the $2tn asset manager headquartered there since 2008). Looking at levels rather than rates of growth, and for banking and portfolio management combined, South Florida (Miami and Palm Beach) ranks only fifth among counties by number of employees, behind Manhattan, Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. South Florida (Miami and Palm Beach) ranks only fifth among US counties by combined employment in investment banking and portfolio management, behind Manhattan, Boston, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
  2. Miami's employment in investment banking and securities intermediation and in portfolio management and investment advice has grown, but far less than New York City's.
  3. Salt Lake City outgrew Miami in banking, where Goldman Sachs expanded its campus into the firm's third-largest US hub, and Atlanta outgrew Miami in portfolio management, anchored by $2tn asset manager Invesco.

Related Articles:

  • Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles as High Costs Drive Away Middle Class — Florida's net domestic migration has slowed to a trickle as prime-working-age residents leave citing affordability and arrivals from other states decline. An influx of wealthy newcomers has helped drive up home prices, inflation in parts of the state outpaced the national average, home-insurance rates soared, and deaths began outnumbering births.
  • As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting — New York state's share of US taxpayers reporting over $1m in income fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022, and the Citizens Budget Commission estimates state and city income tax receipts from that group would have been $13bn higher had the share held. Job growth has concentrated in lower-paid health care and social assistance.
  • The Limits of New York’s “Tax the Rich” Policy — Between 2010 and 2022, taxpayers earning $1m or more in California, New York, Texas, and Florida accounted for about 50% of US capital gains realizations on average. Over that period Florida rose from 8% to 16.7% of millionaire capital gains income while New York fell from 14% to 8.9%.

AI Summary. People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had average adjusted gross income of $178,000, more than double that of those leaving for other states, according to an analysis of Internal Revenue Service data. A residence-planning firm counts 38,800 millionaires in Miami, up 94% over a decade.

Arian Campo-Flores The Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Miami illustrates wealth-driven bifurcation: new arrivals report ~$178K average AGI, among the highest in the US, even as the metro leads major cities in net out-migration. Luxury spending and tax revenue are rising; the middle class is being priced out.

Are wealthier newcomers replacing lower-income residents leaving Miami?

Core argument: People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had average adjusted gross income of $178,000, more than double that of people leaving the county for other states, according to Maria Ilcheva's analysis of 2022–23 IRS data.

People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had on average $178,000 in adjusted gross income, more than double that of people who left the county for other states, according to an analysis of 2022-23 Internal Revenue Service data by Maria Ilcheva, associate director of the Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center at Florida International University. Those coming from Manhattan earned on average $358,000, and those from Chicago earned on average $711,000. The number of millionaires in Miami soared 94% to 38,800 between 2014 and 2024, according to Henley & Partners, a residence and citizenship planning firm. That was the second-largest percentage increase among the U.S. cities it studied, behind the San Francisco Bay Area.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had average adjusted gross income of $178,000, more than double that of people leaving the county for other states, according to Maria Ilcheva's analysis of 2022–23 IRS data.
  2. Arrivals to Miami-Dade from Manhattan earned an average of $358,000 and those from Chicago an average of $711,000, according to the Florida International University analysis of IRS data.
  3. Miami's millionaire count rose 94% to 38,800 between 2014 and 2024, the second-largest percentage increase among U.S. cities studied by Henley & Partners, behind the San Francisco Bay Area.

Related Articles:

  • Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles as High Costs Drive Away Middle Class — Florida's net domestic migration has slowed to a trickle as prime-working-age residents leave citing affordability and arrivals from other states decline. An influx of wealthy newcomers has helped drive up home prices, inflation in parts of the state outpaced the national average, home-insurance rates soared, and deaths began outnumbering births.
  • With Less Immigration, Urban Growth Slowed in 2025 — Census population estimates show urban counties growing more slowly than suburbs, smaller metropolitan areas, and rural areas, with all county types slowing as immigration fell and the slowdown especially sharp in urban counties. Domestic migration is driven more by affordability, with people leaving expensive urban counties for cheaper suburbs and smaller communities.
  • Where Americans Choose to Move and Where They Leave — County-level mapping of net domestic migration within the United States shows some counties gained net movers equal to 10% or more of their 2020 population while others lost an equivalent share, excluding international moves.

AI Summary. US Census Bureau survey data show artificial intelligence adoption among US establishments rose 0.9 percentage points to 19.8%, with firms expecting 23.0% within six months, led by information, professional, education, and finance/insurance services. Equity analysts expect global semiconductor revenue to grow 50% from current levels by the end of 2026.

Sarah Dong and Joseph Briggs Goldman Sachs
Date Posted:

AI’s net employment impact remains limited so far. Job losses in AI-exposed fields like marketing, graphic design, customer service, and parts of tech have been offset by hiring tied to data center buildouts, especially in construction-linked categories.

Is AI adoption by US firms still rising?

Core argument: AI adoption among US establishments rose 0.9pp to 19.8% in the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey, with adoption expected to reach 23.0% within six months.

AI-related investment growth remains strong, particularly for semiconductors, where equity analysts expect global revenue growth of 50% from current levels by the end of 2026. AI adoption by firms rose by 0.9pp to 19.8% among US establishments (with adoption expected to rise to 23.0% in the next 6 months) according to the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). Information services, professional services, education services, and finance/insurance firms continue to lead adoption. The tech share of total employment continues to decline relative to the pre-2022 trend. That said, the correlation between AI adoption and other labor market slack measures remains limited, and only 15.3k employees were affected by corporate layoffs attributed to AI in March.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. AI adoption among US establishments rose 0.9pp to 19.8% in the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey, with adoption expected to reach 23.0% within six months.
  2. Equity analysts expect global semiconductor revenue to grow 50% from current levels by the end of 2026, amid strong AI-related investment growth.
  3. Corporate layoffs attributed to AI affected 15.3k employees in March, and the correlation between AI adoption and other labor market slack measures remains limited, though the tech share of total employment continues to decline relative to the pre-2022 trend.

Related Articles:

  • Firm Data On AI — Survey data show around 70% of businesses use some artificial intelligence technology, with larger, more productive, and higher-paying firms more likely to adopt it. Firms report little employment effect and a modest productivity boost so far, but predict adoption will raise productivity by about 1.4% and cut employment by about 0.7% over three years.
  • Not Quite mAInstream: A Consumer AI Adoption Profile — Bank of America payments data show about 3% of its households paid for artificial intelligence services, with median spending of $20 per household, up 10.4% from a year earlier, an adoption rate that remains low relative to subscriptions such as music or on-demand video. Bank of America Global Research projects the US addressable market could scale to $75bn annually.
  • Geopolitics And The Geometry Of Global Trade: 2026 Update — Shipments of AI hardware rose almost 40%, accounting for about a third of global trade growth, drawing on supply chains running through Taiwan, South Korea, and parts of Southeast Asia. The US added roughly half of the world's new data center capacity, and its AI-related goods trade rose about 66%.

AI Summary. A multi-country, multi-sector trade model simulation estimates that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods shifted U.S. demand toward Mexican producers, raising Mexico's GDP by 0.35% in the medium run and 1.08% once its capital stock adjusts. The authors argue structural constraints in Mexico have limited the gains.

Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Luis Torres and Diego Morales-Burnett Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Date Posted:

Between 2017 and 2024, Mexico’s share of total US expenditure rose from ~.8% to ~1.06%, increasing Mexican GDP by an estimated 1.08%, as China’s share fell from ~1.25% to ~.95% in the face of the US-China trade war.

How much do US tariffs on China raise Mexico's GDP?

Core argument: A multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium trade model indicates U.S.-China trade war tariffs raised Mexico's GDP by 0.35 percent in the medium run, driven by higher exports to the United States and expansion of sectors integrated into North American value chains.

We examine the effects of the tariffs implemented during the U.S.-China trade war on Mexico’s GDP, using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium trade model. Higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exports in the U.S. market, thereby shifting U.S. demand toward alternative suppliers, including Mexico. Model simulation indicates the U.S. - China tariff shock generated a positive effect on Mexico’s GDP, shifting U.S. demand from goods produced in China toward those produced in Mexico. There was a clear increase in U.S. demand for goods produced in Mexico during 2017–24, suggesting that output in Mexico expanded to meet this increased demand in response to the China trade tension. [Chart 2]. In the medium run—a period when aggregate capital does not change through investment—Mexico experiences a modest increase in GDP of 0.35 percent, driven primarily by higher exports to the United States and expansion of sectors integrated into North American value chains. Once Mexico’s capital stock adjusts, GDP expands by an additional 0.73 percentage points (total of 1.08 percent), reflecting increased investment in expanding industries (Chart 3). Although trade reallocation has contributed to economic growth in Mexico, structural constraints led to underperformance.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium trade model indicates U.S.-China trade war tariffs raised Mexico's GDP by 0.35 percent in the medium run, driven by higher exports to the United States and expansion of sectors integrated into North American value chains.
  2. Once Mexico's capital stock adjusts, the model shows GDP expanding by an additional 0.73 percentage points, for a total of 1.08 percent, reflecting increased investment in expanding industries.
  3. U.S. demand for goods produced in Mexico increased during 2017–24, suggesting Mexican output expanded to meet that demand, though structural constraints led to underperformance.

Related Articles:

  • Mexico Is Not Just the Top Supplier to the U.S. Now It Is the Top Buyer — Mexico is now both the largest buyer of U.S. exports and the largest source of U.S. imports, with U.S. goods exports to Mexico at $226.4bn versus $225.6bn to Canada and imports from Mexico totaling $354.9bn. Mexico's growth, including its middle class, has increased demand for U.S. goods among its more than 130 million people.
  • Mexico’s Growth Stagnation — Mexico's growth has fallen to near zero as an investment boom from recent years faded into a drag on growth and private consumption returned to the weakness seen in the five years before the pandemic. Despite strong exports to the US, the gains from trade are not reaching enough of the population, making the stagnation a structural problem.
  • The U.S. Wants to Ban China’s High-Tech Cars, but They’re Already Here in El Paso — Chinese automakers BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motor rank among the world's largest and have gained market share in Europe and Asia, with Chinese vehicles making up a quarter of sales in Mexico. US federal rules let Mexican residents and dual citizens drive noncompliant Chinese cars across the border, and Canada will allow imports of inexpensive Chinese electric vehicles.