Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, May 7, 2026

AI Summary. U.S. and Chinese data agree the bilateral U.S.-China trade imbalance decreased, while the U.S. deficit with Southeast Asian nations increased, with Vietnam the largest driver. The U.S. deficit with China in high-tech computer and networking goods fell about $70bn as it rose roughly $80bn with Southeast Asia, pointing to a redirection of final assembly.

Hunter Clark and Gregory Simitian Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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In 2025, the US deficit with China in machinery and electrical goods fell ~$70B, while the US deficit with ASEAN in similar goods rose ~$80B, and China’s surplus with ASEAN increased ~$70B—reshuffling, not shrinking, trade imbalances.

Has the falling U.S.-China trade deficit shifted to Southeast Asia?

Core argument: The U.S. deficit with China in high-tech computer- and networking-related goods fell by about $70 billion, while the comparable deficit with ASEAN rose by about $80 billion.

The charts plot several views of the trade balances between the U.S., China, and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). [The top panel in the Gallery] shows the U.S.’s reported trade deficit with China and China’s reported trade surplus with the U.S. Both measures broadly agree that the bilateral trade imbalance decreased. [The first image] shows a similar set of plots for the trade imbalances between the U.S. and ASEAN. Both agree that the U.S. trade deficit with ASEAN increased significantly, with Vietnam the single largest driver of the deficit increase. Finally, the bottom panel shows the bilateral balances vis-à-vis China and ASEAN. The U.S.'s deficit with China in high-tech computer- and networking-related goods [in particular] declined by about $70 billion, and increased by a rather similar amount, $80 billion, for ASEAN. China’s own balance with ASEAN shows a nearly $70 billion increase in its surplus in Electrical machinery and equipment. These changes point to a redirection of final assembly from China to ASEAN nations, reducing direct U.S. exposure to Chinese exports. This rerouting doesn’t require a complete overhaul of supply chains, thanks to their inherent flexibility. Companies can relocate final assembly stages (like putting together laptops in Vietnam or Thailand) while continuing to source upstream components from established Chinese suppliers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The U.S. deficit with China in high-tech computer- and networking-related goods fell by about $70 billion, while the comparable deficit with ASEAN rose by about $80 billion.
  2. U.S. and Chinese data broadly agree that the bilateral U.S.–China trade imbalance decreased, while the U.S. trade deficit with ASEAN increased significantly, with Vietnam the single largest driver of that increase.
  3. China's surplus with ASEAN in electrical machinery and equipment rose by nearly $70 billion, a pattern pointing to a redirection of final assembly from China to ASEAN nations while upstream components are still sourced from established Chinese suppliers.

Related Articles:

  • US Notches One of Its Biggest Annual Trade Gaps Since 1960 — The US goods and services trade deficit reached $901.5bn for the year, one of the largest in data going back to 1960. US companies increased imports of computers and accessories by nearly $145bn from the prior year, an acceleration in demand that reflects large-scale artificial intelligence investment.
  • China Blames US For Trade Imbalances As Surplus Hits Record $1.2tn — China reported a record annual goods trade surplus of $1.2tn, with monthly exports growing 6.6% year over year in dollar terms, more than double analysts' average forecast of 3.1%. Chinese customs officials argue that other countries' restrictions on high-tech exports to China are holding down China's imports.
  • The Dangerous Triumph Of Neo-Mercantilism — Neo-mercantilism is thriving in both China, which pairs infant-industry promotion with large trade surpluses, and in a United States focused on external deficits and protecting domestic markets. The author argues this will likely fracture the world economy, and that a new multilateral treaty could include a mechanism to combat large structural trade surpluses.

AI Summary. A US stock market rebound has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, pushing market concentration to an all-time high and prompting warnings about the rally's fragility. The S&P 500, dominated by megacap technology companies, has far outperformed its equal-weight counterpart, with semiconductor stocks posting especially large gains.

Emily Herbert, Ray Douglas and Jonathan Vincent Financial Times
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The S&P 500 has risen ~12% since the start of April. The rally has been highly concentrated, with only five firms driving ~ half the S&P 500’s growth.

Is the stock market rebound driven by a record-small number of stocks?

Core argument: Wall Street's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, pushing US market concentration to an all-time high and prompting warnings about the rally's "fragility.".

Wall Street’s rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, pushing US market concentration to an all-time high and prompting warnings about the “fragility” of the rally. Before the conflict began, the equal-weight version of the S&P powered ahead of the more commonly used index, in which bigger companies are weighted more heavily. But that pattern has reversed during the market rebound, with the S&P, which is dominated by Silicon Valley’s megacap tech companies, performing far better than its equal-weight counterpart. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index has surged more than 40% since the war started, with chipmaker Intel up more than 130% and memory giant Sandisk up 100%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Wall Street's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, pushing US market concentration to an all-time high and prompting warnings about the rally's "fragility.".
  2. The S&P, dominated by Silicon Valley's megacap tech companies, has far outperformed its equal-weight counterpart during the rebound, reversing the pattern that prevailed before the conflict began.
  3. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index has surged more than 40% since the war started, with Intel up more than 130% and memory maker Sandisk up 100%.

Related Articles:

  • The Coming Mega-IPO Flow & Funding Problem of 2026 — Adjusted for inflation, SpaceX alone would rank as the second-largest initial public offering ever, behind Saudi Aramco, and three such listings together would exceed the entire 1995–2000 dot-com wave. Funding that equity supply requires selling existing holdings, and index rule changes make passive funds forced buyers, pressuring large-cap technology stocks.
  • Abandon Ship! — 42 AI-related stocks have accounted for 75%-85% of S&P 500 returns, earnings and capital spending since generative AI chatbots launched, and 80%-100% over the more recent period. Unlike the dot-com era, rising tech capital spending has not been accompanied by increased debt financing in aggregate.
  • One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets — Over a century, U.S. publicly traded stocks generated roughly $91tn in shareholder wealth enhancement, with returns strongly positively skewed and dominated by a relatively small number of high-performing firms. Because most possible outcomes fall below the mean in a skewed distribution, the authors argue financial planning should focus on median outcomes or the full distribution.

AI Summary. SpaceX's capital spending is growing by billions of dollars as it builds space-related infrastructure, including launchpads in Florida and a solar-cell factory in Texas, ahead of a planned public offering. The company also plans to spend more to potentially send up to 1m artificial-intelligence satellites into low-Earth orbit.

Micah Maidenberg Wall Street Journal
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SpaceX’s planned capex is surging ahead of its IPO, ranging from a $55B chip complex in Texas to new launch facilities in Florida. Last year, the firm’s space-related businesses generated $8B in adjusted earnings on $16B in revenue.

Is a rocket maker ramping up capital spending before going public?

Core argument: SpaceX plans to spend more to potentially send up to one million AI satellites into low-Earth orbit in the years ahead, part of capital investments growing by billions of dollars as the company prepares a public offering.

SpaceX’s bill for capital investments is growing by the billions as the Elon Musk-led company prepares for a huge public offering. The rockets, satellites and AI company is investing in building space-related infrastructure, including launchpads in Florida and a new solar-cell factory in Texas. There are also plans to spend even more to potentially send up to one million AI satellites to low-Earth-orbit in the years ahead. The planned outlays reflect the appetite that Musk, SpaceX’s chief executive, has for pursuing projects at huge scales. Documents filed in connection with the company’s planned IPO are expected to give investors a clearer sense of how SpaceX expects to allocate spending.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. SpaceX plans to spend more to potentially send up to one million AI satellites into low-Earth orbit in the years ahead, part of capital investments growing by billions of dollars as the company prepares a public offering.
  2. SpaceX is investing in space-related infrastructure including launchpads in Florida and a new solar-cell factory in Texas, outlays that reflect Chief Executive Elon Musk's appetite for pursuing projects at huge scales.
  3. Documents filed in connection with SpaceX's planned IPO are expected to give investors a clearer sense of how the rockets, satellites and AI company expects to allocate spending.

Related Articles:

  • It’s Not a Space Race, It’s the Space Olympics — The US operates 81% of commercial satellites in orbit and 86% of global effective launch capacity, with NATO allies second in satellites at 11% and China second in launch capacity at 9%. China is pursuing mega satellite constellations and reusable rockets, in many cases copying approaches already proven by US companies.
  • The Coming Mega-IPO Flow & Funding Problem of 2026 — Adjusted for inflation, SpaceX alone would rank as the second-largest initial public offering ever, behind Saudi Aramco, and three such listings together would exceed the entire 1995–2000 dot-com wave. Funding that equity supply requires selling existing holdings, and index rule changes make passive funds forced buyers, pressuring large-cap technology stocks.
  • Elon Musk’s Starship Heavy Could Revolutionize Warfare — The Starship heavy-lift rocket would make it possible to pre-position conventional munitions in low Earth orbit, with heat shields and inertial guidance, that could be deorbited with little warning to strike anywhere on Earth within minutes. Such a system would allow thousands of simultaneous precise strikes without aircraft or personnel at risk, removing the need to first establish air superiority.

AI Summary. Census data show the under-18 population fell 22% in Chicago, 23% in Los Angeles and 12% in New York between 2010 and 2024, while wealthier white families defy the trend in central neighborhoods of the densest, richest cities. Brooklyn's white child population grew 13% over that period, rising from a third to more than two-fifths of the total.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

Btw 2010 and 2024, the under-18 population in New York City declined by 12%. This decline was concentrated in the non-white population, which fell 15.4%, compared to a 1.7% drop for white children.

Are wealthy white families the only ones raising children downtown?

Core argument: Census-bureau data show the under-18 population fell 22% in Chicago, 23% in Los Angeles and 12% in New York between 2010 and 2024.

Cities across America are losing children fast. Across Chicago, between 2010 and 2024, according to census-bureau data, the total population aged under 18 declined by 22%. In Los Angeles the figure was 23% and in New York, 12%. And yet in the country’s richest, densest cities, there is one group noticeably defying the trend: wealthier white families. The change is most concentrated in central neighbourhoods in what Ness Sandoval, a sociologist at St Louis University, calls “winner takes all” cities, like New York, Chicago or San Francisco. Good examples include Park Slope in Brooklyn, Mar Vista in Los Angeles and Bernal Heights in San Francisco. Across Brooklyn the population of white children grew by 13% from 2010 to 2024. They now make up more than two-fifths of the total, up from a third in 2010. In Wicker Park’s two zip codes, the number of white children increased by 39% and 94%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Census-bureau data show the under-18 population fell 22% in Chicago, 23% in Los Angeles and 12% in New York between 2010 and 2024.
  2. Wealthier white families defy the decline, with Brooklyn's white child population growing 13% from 2010 to 2024 and now exceeding two-fifths of the total, up from a third; in Wicker Park's two zip codes it rose 39% and 94%.
  3. Ness Sandoval, a sociologist at St Louis University, places the shift in central neighbourhoods of "winner takes all" cities such as New York, Chicago and San Francisco, including Park Slope, Mar Vista and Bernal Heights.

Related Articles:

  • Young Families Have Stopped Leaving Big Cities, For Now — New data show the population of children under five in large U.S. urban counties fell 0.2%, matching the national rate of decline and ending a stretch in which big cities lost young children faster than the country as a whole. Every large urban county with under-five growth since 2020 is in Texas, North Carolina, or Florida.
  • Supply and The Mam — New York City has the highest combined city-state personal tax rate in the US and the highest all-in corporate income tax rate at 17.4%, and the highest industrial, retail and multifamily property taxes per square foot among ten major cities. New York State ranks first in tax collections per capita.
  • Where is Standard of Living the Highest? Local Prices and the Geography of Consumption — The authors estimate that geographical differences in cost of living are especially large for low-income US households, and that expensive cities offer college graduates a standard of living similar to affordable cities while offering less-educated households a lower one. A high school dropout household moving from the most affordable to the most expensive commuting zone would see consumption fall 18.5%.

AI Summary. Spain has been the world's fastest-growing large advanced economy and, by Financial Times analysis, accounted for one in four of the 11.1mn jobs added across the European Union, with roughly 70% going to immigrants according to the think-tank Funcas. Spain's fertility rate of 1.1 births per woman is the EU's lowest after Malta.

Barney Jopson, Alan Smith and Irene de la Torre Arenas Financial Times
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Spain’s foreign-born population grew from ~5% to ~20% in less than 25 years. Since 2020, ~25% of the 1.1mm new jobs created in the EU were Spanish, and ~70% were filled by immigrants. At 1.1 births/woman, Spain has the second-lowest birth rate in the EU.

How has immigration driven Spain's economic and job growth?

Core argument: Spain accounted for one in four of the 11.1mn jobs added across the EU since 2020, according to FT analysis, and has been the world's fastest-growing large advanced economy over the past two years.

Over the past two years, Spain has been the world’s fastest-growing large advanced economy and an engine of EU job creation. Since 2020, it has been responsible for one in four of the 11.1mn new jobs added across the bloc, according to FT analysis. Roughly 70% of those have gone to immigrants, according to Funcas, a think-tank, which has examined the period since 2019. Spain’s unemployment rate remained the second highest in the EU at 10.3% in March. Juan Félix Huarte, chair of Uriel Investments, whose businesses range from waste management to renewables, says immigrants have become vital for the country’s economy for two underlying reasons. One is Spain’s fertility rate of 1.1 births per woman, the lowest in the EU after Malta and little more than half the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain demographic stability. “The Spanish, unfortunately, don’t have children. We have pets, but we don’t have children,” Huarte says. The other reason, he says, is that many young Spaniards are disinclined to take arduous jobs: “We’re getting society far too used to government assistance, to grants, to support from the state.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Spain accounted for one in four of the 11.1mn jobs added across the EU since 2020, according to FT analysis, and has been the world's fastest-growing large advanced economy over the past two years.
  2. Roughly 70% of Spain's job gains since 2019 have gone to immigrants, according to the think-tank Funcas, while Spain's unemployment rate stood at 10.3% in March, the second highest in the EU.
  3. Spain's fertility rate of 1.1 births per woman is the lowest in the EU after Malta and little more than half the 2.1 needed for demographic stability, which Uriel Investments chair Juan Félix Huarte cites as one reason immigrants are vital to the economy.

Related Articles:

  • Euro Area Outlook 2026: Cyclical Boost, Structural Drag, Unchanged Rates — Euro area growth is forecast at 1.4% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, slightly above 1.3%, as German fiscal expansion and resilient consumer spending are offset by structural drags. The authors estimate China's export push will cut real GDP by 0.9% in Germany and 0.6% in Italy over four years.
  • The Demographic Future of Humanity: Facts and Consequences — The authors estimate the world total fertility rate is around 2.17, below the global replacement rate of roughly 2.21, meaning humanity is already below replacement, with fertility and births falling faster than anticipated. They project middle-income countries' fertility may fall below that of rich countries outside East Asia, with emigration compounding population decline.
  • The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — A European Union competitiveness report attributes the EU's labour productivity growth gap with the US largely to weaker activity in information and communications technology and large-scale digital services; excluding main ICT sectors, EU productivity was broadly at par with the US from 2000-2019. It estimates Europe's investment share must rise about 5 percentage points of GDP.

Friday, May 8, 2026

AI Summary. The International Monetary Fund projects Eastern European economies will close much of the gap with US per capita GDP — Poland from 34% to 67%, Romania 27% to 60%, Lithuania 29% to 69% — while Western Europe slips, with France falling from 86% to 71% and Italy from 93% to 68%.

Luis Garicano Silicon Continent
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Western Europe is losing ground to the US as measured by PPP-adjusted GDP per capita; e.g. France is projected to retreat from 86% of the US’s 2000 level to 71% in 2030. Eastern Europe is converging, with Poland approaching 67% of the US level, versus 34% in 2000.

Is Eastern Europe converging with the US while Western Europe falls behind?

Core argument: Western Europe moved the opposite way, with Italy falling from 93% of the US per capita GDP level to 68%, France from 86% to 71%, Spain from 72% to 61%, and Portugal from 64% to 57%.

While we have spent a decade complaining about Europe’s stagnation, a real positive convergence story has been unfolding at the eastern edge of the continent. Poland entered the millennium at 34% of US per capita GDP; by 2030, the IMF projects it will reach 67%. Romania rises from 27% to 60%. Lithuania moves from 29% to 69%. Bulgaria goes from 23% to 53%. These countries’ citizens are still significantly poorer than Americans. But they have closed a large part of the gap with the global frontier. Meanwhile, at the other end of the continent, the picture is almost the mirror image. Portugal slipped from 64% to 57%. Spain fell from 72% to 61%. The richer laggards are more striking: France dropped from 86% of the US level to 71%, and Italy fell from 93% to 68%. The hope in Europe after the Draghi report was that the Russian threat to the east would supply the political urgency the reform agendas in the “stuck” [Western] part of Europe lack. The correlation created by the crisis is the wrong one. The Russian shock is mobilising the countries where the Draghi problem is not most severe, and leaving the countries where it is most severe largely untouched. War is reforming Europe’s frontier. It is not reforming Europe’s rear, and on present evidence, it will not.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Western Europe moved the opposite way, with Italy falling from 93% of the US per capita GDP level to 68%, France from 86% to 71%, Spain from 72% to 61%, and Portugal from 64% to 57%.
  2. The author argues the Russian shock is mobilising Europe's eastern frontier, where the Draghi reform problem is not most severe, while leaving largely untouched the Western countries where it is most severe.

Related Articles:

  • Ed Conard Debates Furman On “The Expected Value of Risk Taking” — A debate on U.S. fiscal policy argues that spending increases, rather than the tax increases needed to fund them, slow growth, and that higher taxes would reduce the expected value of America's innovative risk-taking. The argument holds that cutting debt below 100% of GDP is critical.
  • The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — A European Union competitiveness report attributes the EU's labour productivity growth gap with the US largely to weaker activity in information and communications technology and large-scale digital services; excluding main ICT sectors, EU productivity was broadly at par with the US from 2000-2019. It estimates Europe's investment share must rise about 5 percentage points of GDP.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.

AI Summary. Record $725bn in AI investment by Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta is projected to cut their combined quarterly free cash flow to about $4bn, down from an average of $45bn per quarter since the pandemic. Analyst estimates put their full-year free cash flow at the lowest level since 2014.

Ryan McMorrow, Rafe Rosner-Uddin, Stephen Morris and Hannah Murphy Financial Times
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The hyperscalers’ combined free cash flow is expected to fall to ~$4B in Q3. Their free cash flow this year will likely be at its lowest level since 2014, when revenues were about a seventh of their current size.

Is AI spending pushing Big Tech free cash flow to decade lows?

Core argument: Wall Street forecasts combined third-quarter free cash flow for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta of roughly $4bn, down from an average of $45bn per quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago.

Big Tech’s record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America’s largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade. The combined free cash flow of the four “hyperscalers” — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta — is expected to fall to roughly $4bn in the third quarter, according to Wall Street’s forecasts, down from an average of $45bn in each quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago. Their full-year free cash flow is set to hit the lowest level since 2014, when their revenues were about a seventh of their current size, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Wall Street forecasts combined third-quarter free cash flow for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta of roughly $4bn, down from an average of $45bn per quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago.
  2. The four hyperscalers' full-year free cash flow is set to hit its lowest level since 2014, when their revenues were about a seventh of their current size, according to analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.
  3. Big Tech's record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America's largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade.

Related Articles:

  • The Macro Implications of the AI Capex Boom — Artificial intelligence capital spending is estimated to add roughly 1.4 percentage points to US growth in one year and about 1.5 points the next, comparable to business investment's contribution during the tech bubble. A material part of that estimate reflects profits at Nvidia and a few other chipmakers that are unlikely to be recycled back into the economy.
  • Abandon Ship! — 42 AI-related stocks have accounted for 75%-85% of S&P 500 returns, earnings and capital spending since generative AI chatbots launched, and 80%-100% over the more recent period. Unlike the dot-com era, rising tech capital spending has not been accompanied by increased debt financing in aggregate.
  • Commoditization, Orchestration, and the New AI Stack — The author argues that as incremental gains from larger AI training runs shrink, the return on additional computing power falls, weakening the case for the training spending that dominates data center demand. Survivors of model commoditization will be those owning the orchestration layer or the applications where outcomes are priced.

AI Summary. Undergraduate enrollment in degrees tied to the most AI-exposed jobs has risen 8%, indicating students are moving toward rather than away from fields exposed to artificial intelligence. A decline in computer science degrees is more than offset by growth in other exposed fields such as engineering.

Sarah Eckhardt and Nathan Goldschlag Agglomerations
Date Posted:

Far from shying away from AI, American undergraduates “are flocking towards the most-AI-exposed degrees,” with enrollment in these majors up 8% last year compared to 2017.

Are students moving toward or away from degrees exposed to AI?

Core argument: Undergraduate enrollment in the most-AI-exposed degrees rose 8% last year compared with 2017, indicating students are moving toward fields whose likely jobs have greater AI exposure.

Are students shying away from fields that have more exposure to AI, perhaps worried that AI will shrink the number of jobs available to them? Or are students shifting towards those fields, preparing for a future in which they will have to be comfortable using AI? To find out, we can check enrollment for groups of degrees based on the AI exposure of the jobs that students with those degrees are likely to take, as shown in Figure 1. As is clear, undergraduates are flocking towards the most-AI-exposed degrees, with enrollment in those degrees up 8% last year compared to 2017. This trend holds despite a notable decline in Computer Science degrees, one of the most-AI-exposed degrees, but whose decline is more than offset by increases in other exposed degrees like Engineering.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Undergraduate enrollment in the most-AI-exposed degrees rose 8% last year compared with 2017, indicating students are moving toward fields whose likely jobs have greater AI exposure.
  2. Computer Science, one of the most-AI-exposed degrees, saw a notable enrollment decline that was more than offset by increases in other exposed fields such as Engineering.
  3. Grouping degrees by the AI exposure of the jobs their graduates are likely to take offers a way to test whether students are avoiding or embracing AI-exposed fields.

Related Articles:

  • Attention (And Money) Is All You Need: Why Universities Are Struggling to Keep AI Talent — The annual compensation gap between top industry and academic artificial intelligence researchers widened from roughly $294,000 to $1.5m, coinciding with accelerating academic out-migration toward large incumbent technology firms. Researchers who move to industry cut paper production by about 63% while increasing patent filings nearly sixfold, consistent with a shift from open science toward proprietary innovation.
  • AI and Young-adult Jobs: The Real Mystery — Employment rates have declined for young adults both with and without college degrees, with non-degree holders faring marginally worse, and employment growth for young workers of all education levels has lagged that of other workers. Artificial intelligence can replace some lower-skilled jobs, but those jobs are too few to drive youth labor market weakness.
  • Tracking the Impact of AI on the Labor Market — US labor force survey data show occupational stability rather than economy-wide disruption from generative artificial intelligence, with the dissimilarity in occupational mix between older and more recent college graduates rarely deviating outside a 30–33% range. The authors note this limited early impact resembles the pace of change in previous periods of technological disruption.

AI Summary. Chinese state-owned oil companies have been reselling cargoes to European and Asian buyers, a sign of surplus that has capped benchmark crude prices and collapsed the premiums paid for physical barrels from about $30 above benchmarks to as little as $1. Satellite data show Chinese commercial stockpiles still rising.

Javier Blas Bloomberg
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Since the start of the war, China has reduced oil imports by ~25% without drawing down reserves or stockpiles, signaling that underlying demand may be structurally weaker than import volumes previously implied.

Are Chinese oil resales signaling surplus and capping crude prices?

Core argument: Physical crude premia over benchmark prices have collapsed from $30 in early April to as little as $1, with talk of discounts emerging, as Chinese state-owned oil companies resell cargoes to European and Asian rivals.

Over recent weeks, industry executives have noticed something odd: Chinese state-owned oil companies have been reselling some of their oil cargoes to European and Asian rivals. The behavior suggests surpluses — odd during a supply shortage. The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also helped to trigger a collapse in the premia that traders pay above them to secure physical crude. Barrels that in early April went for $30 above benchmark prices are now changing hands at premiums as low as $1. Talk of discounts has even started to emerge. The import drop might make sense if Chinese commercial inventories were falling sharply, or if Beijing had tapped its strategic petroleum reserves. But neither is happening. Instead, commercial stockpiles have continued to increase in recent weeks, according to satellite data. What Beijing did was ban exports of refined products, effectively allowing refineries to process less crude to meet domestic demand. But the policy has now been reversed, suggesting the country sees enough fuel availability. Make no mistake, China is rebalancing the oil market today. The bigger question is for tomorrow: If the country can reduce imports so drastically without, apparently, having to take extreme measures, what does that say about the future of oil consumption there? Nothing positive for the bulls, certainly.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Physical crude premia over benchmark prices have collapsed from $30 in early April to as little as $1, with talk of discounts emerging, as Chinese state-owned oil companies resell cargoes to European and Asian rivals.
  2. China's commercial oil stockpiles have continued to increase in recent weeks, according to satellite data, undercutting falling inventories or strategic petroleum reserve draws as explanations for the country's drop in crude imports.
  3. Beijing's ban on refined product exports effectively allowed refineries to process less crude to meet domestic demand, and the reversal of that policy suggests the country sees enough fuel availability.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of Everything — China's energy security rests on coal rather than imported oil and gas: the country consumes more than half the world's coal, and coal powers its industry and electricity system. Coal consumption has risen since 2022, with roughly 95GW of new coal capacity added in one year, exceeding Vietnam's entire installed electricity capacity.
  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.
  • Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World — China leads in adding power to the grid, with more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines versus zero in the US and lead times for large transformers of 48 weeks against a US average of 143 weeks. This positions China to accommodate new demand sources such as artificial intelligence.

AI Summary. Global sea temperatures reached their second highest level on record for the month of April, with the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reporting record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific. Scientists say this raises concerns that an El Niño warming cycle is forming, which would temporarily accelerate global air temperature rise and intensify fires, floods and droughts.

Attracta Mooney Financial Times
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April’s global ocean temperatures rose to their second-highest level on record, suggesting a brewing El Niño warming cycle. April temperatures were just shy of their level in 2024, which was also an El Niño year.

Are record ocean temperatures signaling more extreme weather ahead?

Core argument: Global average sea-surface temperatures for non-polar oceans reached 21°C (69.8°F) in April, just below the record 21.04°C (69.9°F) set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event.

Sea temperatures around the world were the second highest on record for the month of April, stoking concerns among scientists that an El Niño warming cycle is brewing that would intensify extreme weather. The naturally occurring El Niño weather phenomenon, where water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer, temporarily accelerates the rise in global air temperature, resulting in the spread of fires, floods and droughts. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific in April, while the global average for non-polar oceans reached 21°C [69.8°F]— just shy of the 21.04°C [69.9°F] record set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Global average sea-surface temperatures for non-polar oceans reached 21°C (69.8°F) in April, just below the record 21.04°C (69.9°F) set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event.
  2. The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific in April, stoking scientists' concerns that an El Niño warming cycle is brewing.
  3. El Niño, in which central and eastern tropical Pacific waters become significantly warmer, temporarily accelerates the rise in global air temperature and results in the spread of fires, floods and droughts.

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