Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Friday, January 16, 2026

AI Summary. China's housing market has yet to find a bottom, with a small but growing number of households in negative home equity and continued adverse spillovers to local government finances and infrastructure spending. Consumer spending lags as falling home prices erode household balance sheets and a weak labor market yields slow income growth.

Andrew Tilton, Andrew Boak, Goohoon Kwon, Akira Otani, et al. Goldman Sachs
Date Posted:

Five years after China’s housing starts peaked in late 2020, they have not begun to recover; by contrast, US starts peaked in early 2006, with the trough in 2009. Chinese domestic demand is weak, the labor market is tepid, and inflation is below target.

Is China's housing market still weighing on consumer spending?

Core argument: China's housing market has yet to find a bottom five years after the "three red lines" and related restrictions were imposed, though the pace of decline is now more gradual.

Housing is yet to find a bottom five years after the imposition of the “three red lines” and other restrictions--while the pace of decline is more gradual now, a small but growing number of households are in a negative home equity position, and adverse spillovers to local government finances and infrastructure spending continue to play out. Consumer spending is lagging as home price declines erode household balance sheets, a weak labor market is providing only slow income growth, and the boost from government trade-in programs has peaked.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's housing market has yet to find a bottom five years after the "three red lines" and related restrictions were imposed, though the pace of decline is now more gradual.
  2. A small but growing number of Chinese households are in negative home equity, while adverse spillovers from housing to local government finances and infrastructure spending continue to play out.
  3. Chinese consumer spending is lagging as home price declines erode household balance sheets, a weak labor market delivers only slow income growth, and the boost from government trade-in programs has peaked.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 — The authors argue China's official growth figures are inconsistent with ten consecutive quarters of deflation, estimating that real GDP is around 11% below official levels, with most of the adjustment in investment. That would imply a drop of roughly 9 percentage points in China's share of global investment, helping explain its export surge.
  • Sticking with What Works: Raising GDP Forecast on China’s Manufacturing Push — Stronger Chinese growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing may not produce net positive spillovers: for every 1pp export-driven boost to China's GDP, other economies may see a 0.1–0.3pp drag, with high-tech producers such as Europe and Japan facing greater pressure. Cheaper Chinese goods continue to exert a disinflationary impulse.
  • US Exceptionalism Versus Chinese Uninvestibility (Part I) — China redirected domestic savings toward de-Westernizing its industrial supply chains through tighter capital controls, suspended stock listings, and concentrated bank lending, which the author argues was deflationary and produced poor investor returns. The author argues that if the US pursues comparable supply-chain separation from China, capital would shift into lower-return activities.

AI Summary. The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which divides stock prices by the average of the past 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings to smooth business-cycle swings, stands near its highest level since 1880. Because it uses a decade of earnings rather than one year, it is a gauge of sustainable earnings power.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

With CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, ~40, equity valuations are at their highest level since 1880, with the one exception of 2000 prior to the dot-com crash.

Are stock valuations near their highest levels on record?

Core argument: The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, or Shiller P/E, shows equity valuations near their highest levels since 1880.

The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, also known as the Shiller P/E, is a stock market valuation measure that divides the current stock price by the average of the last 10 years’ inflation-adjusted earnings, thereby smoothing out business cycle volatility to assess long-term over/undervaluation and predict future returns. It provides a better gauge of sustainable earnings power than the traditional P/E ratio, which uses only one year’s earnings. The latest reading shows that equity valuations are near the highest levels since 1880.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, or Shiller P/E, shows equity valuations near their highest levels since 1880.
  2. The Shiller P/E divides the current stock price by the average of the past 10 years' inflation-adjusted earnings, smoothing business cycle volatility to assess long-term over- or undervaluation and predict future returns.
  3. By using a decade of earnings rather than a single year, the Shiller P/E provides a better gauge of sustainable earnings power than the traditional price earnings ratio.

Related Articles:

  • Smothering Heights — The four largest cloud computing firms are devoting rising shares of revenue to capital spending and research, with Meta's combined share reaching 70%. Unlike past investment booms, this one has been financed mostly from internal cash flow: 28 direct AI stocks make up 50% of S&P 500 market value but just 5% of its net debt.
  • American Unexceptionalism — The S&P 500 has outperformed other developed-market equities by a cumulative 150% over the past fifteen years, but the authors attribute about 80% of that gap to a strengthening dollar and expanding relative valuations rather than fundamentals such as dividends, buybacks, and organic growth. U.S. valuations sit around the 90th percentile on price-to-earnings measures.
  • 2026 Outlook: Tech Tonic — A Broadening Bull Market — Most major equity markets have outperformed the US, with Europe, China and Asia generating almost double US total returns in dollar terms and gains of 54% in Italy, 73% in Spain and 71% in Korea. US returns have been driven by strong earnings, particularly in technology, while Europe's have come largely from rising valuations.

AI Summary. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose $112.8bn to a record $9.36tn, a figure reflecting both net purchases and valuation changes, according to US Treasury Department data. Increases in Norwegian, Canadian and Saudi holdings offset a $6.1bn decline in China's stockpile to $682.6bn, its lowest since 2008.

Chris Anstey and Anya Andrianova Bloomberg
Date Posted:
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Foreign holdings of Treasuries hit a record high of $9.36T in November. Official Chinese holdings of Treasuries dropped $6.1B. However, holdings in Belgium – which include Chinese custodial accounts – rose $12.6B.

Are foreign holdings of US Treasuries rising to record levels?

Core argument: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose $112.8 billion in November to a record $9.36 trillion, a figure that reflects both net sales and valuation changes, according to Treasury Department data.

Overseas holdings of US Treasuries advanced in November to the highest level on record, with increases in Norwegian, Canadian and Saudi Arabian stockpiles helping offset another monthly drop in China’s total. Overall foreign holdings rose by $112.8 billion, to $9.36 trillion, Treasury Department data showed on Thursday. The figure represents both net sales and valuation changes. A Bloomberg index of the US Treasury market showed a fourth straight monthly advance for November. China’s stockpile of Treasuries, the third largest, dropped by $6.1 billion in November from the previous month, to $682.6 — the lowest level since 2008. Belgium, whose holdings include Chinese custodial accounts according to market analysts, saw its holdings go up by $12.6 billion, to $481 billion.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose $112.8 billion in November to a record $9.36 trillion, a figure that reflects both net sales and valuation changes, according to Treasury Department data.
  2. China's Treasury holdings, the third largest, fell $6.1 billion in November to $682.6 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while increases in Norwegian, Canadian and Saudi Arabian stockpiles helped offset the decline.
  3. Belgium, whose holdings include Chinese custodial accounts according to market analysts, increased its Treasury holdings by $12.6 billion to $481 billion in November.

Related Articles:

  • Long-Maturity Treasuries Fall After Market’s Best Year in Five — Long-maturity US Treasuries have come under pressure as investors weigh the potential for further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to stoke inflation, following an annual return of more than 6% on a Bloomberg index tracking the sector. A measure of expected US bond-market volatility has slumped to multi-year lows.
  • The Race Between Asset Supply and Asset Demand — The authors estimate that demand for assets has outpaced supply by roughly 400% of GDP versus 100%, making rising asset demand the leading contributor to falling interest rates. They project that debt sustainability requires fiscal consolidation exceeding 10% of GDP, though debt could reach 250% of GDP without raising interest rates.
  • A Mystery in Fixed Income — Long-term interest rates have drifted higher than short-term rates and oil prices would predict, an unusual pattern during Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles. Proposed explanations include investor concern about growing Treasury debt issuance or an effective increase in the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

AI Summary. The article argues that diversity, equity, and inclusion mandates spread across the U.S. military, including a memorandum setting numerical targets by race and sex for Air Force officer applicants. It reports that at the U.S. Naval Academy, Black applicants in the fourth score decile were admitted at higher rates than white applicants in the eighth.

Mike Gallagher and Kevin Wallsten Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
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Due to quotas resulting from a Biden DEI initiative, “Black [Naval Academy] applicants scoring in the fourth decile had an admission rate higher than that of whites in the eighth decile.” Gallagher and Wallsten argue that this hurt military recruitment.

Did diversity mandates reshape military recruitment and academy admissions?

Core argument: Black applicants to the U.S. Naval Academy scoring in the fourth decile had a higher admission rate than white applicants in the eighth decile.

Mr. Biden issued an executive order embedding “diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility” across “all parts of the Federal workforce.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin took the unprecedented step of ordering a “stand-down” to combat “extremism” in the armed forces. By the time an independent report commissioned by the Pentagon found these concerns to be baseless, they had already formed the ideological permission structure for a DEI crusade. In 2022, Gen. C.Q. Brown (later promoted to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) issued a memorandum that set numerical quotas for everyone from white males to Pacific Islander females among commissioned officer applicants to the Air Force. Racial discrimination likewise distorted admissions to the U.S. Naval Academy. Black applicants scoring in the fourth decile had an admission rate higher than that of whites in the eighth decile.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Black applicants to the U.S. Naval Academy scoring in the fourth decile had a higher admission rate than white applicants in the eighth decile.
  2. Gen. C.Q. Brown, later promoted to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, issued a 2022 memorandum setting numerical quotas for commissioned officer applicants to the Air Force, ranging from white males to Pacific Islander females.
  3. An independent report commissioned by the Pentagon found baseless the extremism concerns behind Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's ordered military "stand-down.".

Related Articles:

  • The Lost Generation — White men's share of positions across US culture and technology industries declined markedly over roughly a decade: from 48% to 11.9% of lower-level TV writers, 39% to 18% of Harvard humanities tenure-track posts, nearly half to under a third of Google's workforce, and 55.8% to 33.8% of mid-level Amazon managers.
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.

AI Summary. A falling US birth rate is projected to shrink the pool of college-age Americans, leaving schools with empty classrooms. Many smaller, lesser-known colleges are already firing professors, cutting liberal arts courses in favor of science and technology programs, or closing entirely.

Elizabeth Rembert, Amanda Albright and Marie Patino Bloomberg
Date Posted:
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As America’s demographics roll over, smaller public and private liberal arts colleges have “already hit the precipice.” Btw 2003 and 2024, more than 100 public campuses closed, and ~ 2/3 of private for-profit colleges have shut down since the 2010s.

How is a falling birth rate reshaping American colleges?

Core argument: The US pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025, pushing schools toward a "demographic cliff" in which a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s leaves desks and classrooms empty.

The country’s tumbling birth rate is pushing schools toward a “demographic cliff,” where a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s will leave desks and classrooms empty. Many smaller, lesser-known schools have already hit the precipice. They’re firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM — or closing altogether. Others will likely reach the cliff in the next few years. Although it has plunged since the 1950s, the US birth rate ticked upward slightly before the 2008 financial crisis, and that brief demographic boost has kept enrollment at larger schools afloat. But the nationwide pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025. The financial pressure will be relentless. “If colleges were facing a stark decline in one or two cohorts, higher ed could likely say, ‘Well, we could admit a few additional students and tighten our belts to muddle through,’” said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota, who has written books about education and demographics. “But it’s one year after another of contraction, of ratcheting up the pressure.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The US pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025, pushing schools toward a "demographic cliff" in which a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s leaves desks and classrooms empty.
  2. Many smaller, lesser-known US colleges have already reached the precipice, firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM, or closing altogether, with others likely to reach it in the next few years.
  3. Carleton College economics professor Nathan Grawe argues that higher education could muddle through a decline in one or two cohorts by admitting a few additional students and tightening belts, but faces one year after another of contraction.

Related Articles:

  • Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment — Declines in U.S. college enrollment are concentrated in community colleges, with four-year institutions maintaining stable enrollments and over one-third of the apparent community college drop stemming from administrative reclassification. The authors estimate that stronger labor markets explain 60% of the community college enrollment decline over 2009-19.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Changes in the College Mobility Pipeline Since 1900 — Students from the bottom third of parental income now earn less than half the college enrollment wage premium of top-third students. The authors attribute this mainly to the rising relative value of research universities, lower-income students' diversion to community and for-profit colleges, and their shift from computer science and engineering into humanities.

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

AI Summary. A selloff in Japanese government bonds sent yields on some maturities to record highs, prompting hedge funds to unwind trades, life insurers to sell bonds, and at least one corporate bond investor to withdraw from a deal. Traders attributed the rout to doubts about Japan's fiscal health amid planned tax cuts and higher spending.

Ruth Carson, Taiga Uranaka, Lisa Du, and Finbarr Flynn Bloomberg
Date Posted:

“Tepid” demand at a 20-year debt auction catalyzed disorderly selling of Japanese debt amidst continuing concern about the country’s indebtedness, particularly in light of plans to cut taxes and boost spending. Yields on 30 and 40-year bonds jumped 25bps.

Are fiscal doubts pushing Japanese bond yields to record highs?

Core argument: Yields on some Japanese government bonds hit all-time highs in a sudden Tuesday afternoon selloff that market participants described as the most chaotic Tokyo trading session in recent memory.

What started as an unremarkable day on Tokyo trading desks quickly morphed into what several market participants described as the most chaotic session in recent memory. While concerns about Japan‘s fiscal position had been simmering for weeks, they suddenly boiled over on Tuesday afternoon with little warning — sending yields on some bonds to all-time highs. The rout left some hedge funds rushing to unwind losing trades, pushed life insurers to dump bonds and caused at least one corporate bond investor to pull out of a multi-million dollar deal. Even as traders struggled to pinpoint an immediate catalyst for the selloff, the overriding worry was clear: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plans to cut taxes and boost spending are raising doubts about the financial health of one of the world’s most indebted governments. “This is basically the market pricing in a Liz Truss moment in Japan,” said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Investment Management.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Yields on some Japanese government bonds hit all-time highs in a sudden Tuesday afternoon selloff that market participants described as the most chaotic Tokyo trading session in recent memory.
  2. The Japanese bond rout left some hedge funds rushing to unwind losing trades, pushed life insurers to dump bonds and caused at least one corporate bond investor to pull out of a multi-million dollar deal.
  3. Traders struggled to pinpoint an immediate catalyst for the Japanese bond selloff, citing worry over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's plans to cut taxes and boost spending, which State Street strategist Masahiko Loo called the market pricing in a Liz Truss moment in Japan.

Related Articles:

  • 2026 Japan Economic Outlook: Steady Fundamentals, Policy Risks Ahead — Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio has continued to decline despite an ongoing primary deficit, because the government's interest payment rate (0.8%) is far below nominal GDP growth (3.9%), a gap the authors call the widest since 1980 and worth roughly -7 percentage points a year.
  • Why Is The Japanese Yen Falling? — The author argues that Bank of Japan bond buying holds Japanese long-term government bond yields artificially below levels justified by the country's gross government debt, pushing risk premia into the currency instead and driving the yen lower. On this view, yen depreciation will continue until yields are allowed to rise far more, forcing fiscal consolidation.
  • Is Japan “Normal” Again? — Yields on long-term Japanese government debt have risen to their highest since the 1990s while the yen remains cheap relative to its history. One benign reading is that Japan has exited post-bubble stagnation, with modest inflation and faster wage and income growth aligning with higher interest rates.

AI Summary. Neo-mercantilism is thriving in both China, which pairs infant-industry promotion with large trade surpluses, and in a United States focused on external deficits and protecting domestic markets. The author argues this will likely fracture the world economy, and that a new multilateral treaty could include a mechanism to combat large structural trade surpluses.

Martin Wolf Financial Times
Date Posted:

China’s refusal to address its excess saving will likely fracture the global economy, Wolf argues. He suggests reviving Keynes’ attempt, rejected by the US at Bretton Woods, to make surplus countries, not deficit ones, bear the burden of adjustment.

Will the spread of neo-mercantilism fracture the world economy?

Core argument: China has embraced infant-industry promotion and built huge trade surpluses, while Trump's US is no less neo-mercantilist in its preoccupation with external deficits and protection of domestic markets.

Neo-mercantilism is thriving in China, which has not only embraced infant-industry promotion, but created huge trade surpluses. Trump’s US is no less neo-mercantilist: he is obsessed with external deficits and the need to protect domestic markets. My colleague, Robin Harding, has raised disturbing worries about China: the Chinese, he suggests, do not want to import anything manufactured elsewhere. Their aim, he argues, is domination of global manufacturing.The triumph of neo-mercantilism raises two fundamental issues. The first is where it will lead. Some argue that the world will fracture. This seems likely. The second question is whether the fracturing can be managed. One could imagine an effort (albeit not under Trump) to design a new multilateral economic treaty. In the process, one could even include something John Maynard Keynes wanted to achieve at Bretton Woods, namely, a way to combat huge structural trade surpluses. These, he believed, imposed ruinous constraints upon others. In the 1940s he could not persuade the US, then a huge surplus country.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China has embraced infant-industry promotion and built huge trade surpluses, while Trump's US is no less neo-mercantilist in its preoccupation with external deficits and protection of domestic markets.
  2. Robin Harding argues that the Chinese do not want to import anything manufactured elsewhere and that their aim is domination of global manufacturing.
  3. A fracturing of the world economy appears likely, and managing it could require a new multilateral economic treaty incorporating the aim John Maynard Keynes failed to secure at Bretton Woods: a way to combat huge structural trade surpluses.

Related Articles:

  • China Is Making Trade Impossible — Interviews with Chinese economists, technologists and business leaders yielded no clear answer to what products China would want to buy from the rest of the world in future, beyond commodities, luxury goods and higher education. The author argues China sees nothing it cannot eventually make better and cheaper itself, undermining trade as a two-way exchange.
  • Sticking with What Works: Raising GDP Forecast on China’s Manufacturing Push — Stronger Chinese growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing may not produce net positive spillovers: for every 1pp export-driven boost to China's GDP, other economies may see a 0.1–0.3pp drag, with high-tech producers such as Europe and Japan facing greater pressure. Cheaper Chinese goods continue to exert a disinflationary impulse.
  • Europe Has No Choice But To Intervene On Trade — Manufacturing competitiveness is argued to stem largely from lower labor costs relative to productivity, so policies that raise the household share of income weaken competitiveness while countries that suppress wages gain at trade partners' expense. The author argues Europe must therefore intervene in its external accounts to offset foreign trade intervention rather than cut wages and welfare.

AI Summary. A New York Times analysis of federal data finds about 230,000 people deported after arrests inside the US and 270,000 at the border, with interior deportations already exceeding the prior administration's four-year total. Southwest border crossings have fallen to record lows, and roughly 40,000 people self-deported for a stipend.

Albert Sun New York Times
Date Posted:
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A NYT analysis finds there were likely ~230,000 US interior deportations in 2025 more than the total over Biden’s four years. The previous recent peak of interior deportations was less than 200,000 in 2012.

How many people have been deported, and from where?

Core argument: The Trump administration deported about 230,000 people arrested inside the U.S. over the past year, exceeding the total from interior arrests during the entire four years of the Biden administration, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data.

Over the past year, President Trump’s administration has deported about 230,000 people who were arrested inside the country and another 270,000 at the border, a New York Times analysis of federal data shows. The number of deportations from interior arrests since Mr. Trump took office is already higher than the total during the entire four years of the Biden administration. At the same time, the number of people trying to cross the Southwest border has fallen to record lows. As a result, far fewer people were arrested and deported from the border than in the preceding few years. Another roughly 40,000 people returned to their countries after signing up to “self-deport” and receive a stipend through a novel program and app provided by the administration.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Trump administration deported about 230,000 people arrested inside the U.S. over the past year, exceeding the total from interior arrests during the entire four years of the Biden administration, according to a New York Times analysis of federal data.
  2. Another roughly 270,000 people were deported after arrest at the border, fewer than in the preceding few years as attempted Southwest border crossings fell to record lows.
  3. Roughly 40,000 people returned to their countries after signing up to "self-deport" and receive a stipend through a novel program and app provided by the Trump administration.

Related Articles:

  • The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the US population rises from 349m to 364m between 2026 and 2056, with annual growth slowing from 0.3% over the next decade to 0.1% thereafter before reaching zero and then shrinking. Declining fertility is projected to push deaths above births starting in 2030, increasingly offsetting net immigration.
  • Foreign-Born Number and Share of U.S. Population at All-Time Highs in January 2025 — The U.S. foreign-born population reached 53.3m, or 15.8% of the population, the highest level in American history, exceeding the shares recorded in 1890 (14.8%) and 1910 (14.7%) during the "Great Wave" of immigration. A four-year increase of 8.3m is larger than that of any four-year period in American history and exceeds the 7.9m increase over the prior 12 years.
  • The Cost of Illegal Immigration — The US foreign-born population rose by 6.6mm to 51.6mm over a roughly three-year span, lifting immigrants to 15.6% of the population, above the prior records of 14.8% in 1890 and 14.7% in 1910. The authors estimate about 13.7mm illegal immigrants now live in the US, a net increase of 3.7mm.

AI Summary. Individual-level immigration court and parole data indicate net unauthorized immigration has turned increasingly negative, averaging -48,000 per month over the first seven months of the year and reaching -89,000 in July. The authors estimate this pace implies an annual total of -576,000, compared with the Congressional Budget Office's projection of -290,000.

Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Date Posted:
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Illegal immigration to the US plunged in 2024, nearing zero by year-end, while exits began to accelerate in 2025. FRBD estimates that 2025 net outflows averaged 48,000/month through July, suggesting a cumulative 576,000 exits through the end of the year.

How negative has net unauthorized immigration become this year?

Core argument: Net unauthorized immigration reached -89,000 in July and averaged -48,000 monthly in 2025 through July, which, if sustained, implies an annual total of -576,000, according to estimates drawn from immigration court and parole case data.

We draw on newly available, individual-level data from immigration court proceedings and parole cases, along with other aggregate information, to track recent trends in unauthorized immigration at both the national and local levels. Our analysis leads to two key findings. First, it shows that net unauthorized immigration has been increasingly negative since early 2025 (Chart 1). By July, it reached -89,000 with no indication the decline is leveling off. These data show that unauthorized immigration inflows rose sharply after early 2021, peaked in early 2024 and then fell rapidly (Chart 2A). Exits have increased sharply since early 2025, driven by both removals and self-deportation. Together, these estimates show that net unauthorized immigration has declined since January 2024 and has become increasingly negative since early 2025. The 2024 decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in entries, reaching near zero by early 2025. The further net decline in 2025 reflects a steep rise in exits. We estimate that net unauthorized immigration has averaged -48,000 monthly in 2025 through July. If that average holds constant through the remainder of the year, it would imply an annual total of –576,000. By contrast, the CBO’s latest projection for “other foreign nationals,” which assumes higher got-aways and lower removals than our estimate, is –290,000 in 2025 (Chart 3).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Net unauthorized immigration reached -89,000 in July and averaged -48,000 monthly in 2025 through July, which, if sustained, implies an annual total of -576,000, according to estimates drawn from immigration court and parole case data.
  2. Unauthorized immigration inflows rose sharply after early 2021, peaked in early 2024 and fell to near zero by early 2025, while exits have risen sharply since early 2025, driven by both removals and self-deportation.
  3. The CBO's latest projection for "other foreign nationals" in 2025 is -290,000, assuming higher got-aways and lower removals than the authors' estimate of -576,000.

Related Articles:

  • America’s Immigration Mess: An Illustrated Guide — Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.
  • Macroeconomic Implications Of Immigration Flows In 2025 And 2026: January 2026 Update — The authors estimate that job growth consistent with full employment was 20,000–50,000 a month in the second half of 2025, while reported nonfarm payroll growth averaged about 14,500 and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. They project immigration policy changes will keep potential employment growth low, reducing GDP growth by roughly 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 0.1 in 2026.
  • Where Did All the American-Born Roofers Go? — The share of foreign-born workers in US construction is now nearly twice that of other industries, after being equal in the 1970s and 1980s, and 9 of 10 construction workers are nonunion. Unionized construction workers earn $1.15 for every $1 the average American worker earns hourly, down from $1.71, while nonunion construction workers earn 86 cents.

AI Summary. China recorded 7.92mn births, down from 9.54mn a year earlier and the lowest since 1949, while 11.31mn people died and the population fell 3.39mn to 1.405bn. The figures indicate China is still not seeing benefits from measures to bolster its fertility rate after loosening the "one-child" policy.

Eleanor Olcott Financial Times
Date Posted:

China reported that 7.92mm babies were born in 2025, the lowest number since 1949. Overall, the population fell 3.39mm to 1.405B as the fertility rate fell to .98.

Are China's policies to raise the fertility rate working?

Core argument: China recorded 7.92mn births in 2025, down from 9.54mn in 2024 and the lowest number since 1949, according to government figures.

The government reported that 7.92mn babies were born in 2025, down from 9.54mn the year before, and the lowest number of births since 1949. Last year, 11.31mn people died. China’s population fell 3.39mn to 1.405bn. The figures, which come after a one-off rise in births in 2024, indicate that China is still not seeing the benefit from measures seeking to bolster the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — following the loosening of its “one-child” policy in 2016.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China recorded 7.92mn births in 2025, down from 9.54mn in 2024 and the lowest number since 1949, according to government figures.
  2. China's population fell 3.39mn to 1.405bn, as 11.31mn deaths outnumbered the 7.92mn births.
  3. The birth figures follow a one-off rise in births in 2024 and indicate that China is still not seeing the benefit from measures to bolster the fertility rate since the 2016 loosening of its "one-child" policy.

Related Articles:

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AI Summary. China has mobilized thousands of fishing boats to form floating barriers at least 200 miles long, a level of coordination analysts say could give Beijing new ways to assert control in contested seas. Analysts note such boat masses could also serve as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming radars and drone sensors.

Chris Buckley, Agnes Chang and Amy Chang Chien New York Times
Date Posted:

In early January, 1,400 Chinese fishing boats assembled into a rectangle stretching more than 200 miles in the East China Sea, following a similar event in late December when 2,000 fishing boats assembled in two long, parallel formations.

Can fishing fleets give China new ways to control contested seas?

Core argument: China mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice within weeks to form floating barriers at least 200 miles long, showing a level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas.

China quietly mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice in recent weeks to form massive floating barriers of at least 200 miles long, showing a new level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas. The two gatherings, weeks apart in the same waters, suggested a coordinated effort, analysts said. The masses of the smaller boats could also act “as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming radars or drone sensors with too many targets,” said Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. naval officer now at the Center for a New American Security.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice within weeks to form floating barriers at least 200 miles long, showing a level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas.
  2. The two gatherings occurred weeks apart in the same waters, which analysts said suggested a coordinated effort.
  3. Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. naval officer now at the Center for a New American Security, said the massed smaller boats could act as missile and torpedo decoys, overwhelming radars or drone sensors with too many targets.

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