Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, December 11, 2025

AI Summary. Construction labor productivity has been roughly flat or declining since the 1990s across most of Western Europe, Japan, and Korea, a pattern consistent with the flat US trend. Countries often held up as models — Sweden and Japan for prefabrication, China for infrastructure — show little or unremarkable construction productivity improvement.

Brian Potter Construction Physics
Date Posted:

The sharp contrast between soaring productivity in manufacturing and limited or no such growth in construction since the 1990s is not limited to the US, but largely holds across advanced countries, even those the US is “encouraged to emulate.”

Is flat construction productivity a problem across wealthy countries?

Core argument: Most Western European countries, along with Japan and Korea, have had flat or declining construction labor productivity growth since the 1990s, and the roughly flat US trend is fairly consistent with trends in other large, wealthy countries.

Most Western European countries, along with Japan and Korea, have had flat or declining labor productivity growth since the 1990s. The recent US trend in labor productivity — it staying roughly flat — is fairly consistent with trends in other large, wealthy countries. This includes countries whose construction practices the US is often encouraged to emulate. Sweden, for instance, is often praised for its high adoption of prefabricated construction, but since the 1990s Sweden has had roughly flat construction labor productivity, even as it has made more extensive use of prefabrication. Japan similarly makes wider use of prefabrication than the US does, and Japan has proved willing to experiment with technologies like automated skyscraper construction, but has seen virtually no construction productivity improvement since the 1970s. China is held up as an example of an infrastructure-focused nation that the US should emulate, but its construction productivity gains, while positive, don’t appear to be particularly impressive.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Most Western European countries, along with Japan and Korea, have had flat or declining construction labor productivity growth since the 1990s, and the roughly flat US trend is fairly consistent with trends in other large, wealthy countries.
  2. Sweden, often praised for its high adoption of prefabricated construction, has had roughly flat construction labor productivity since the 1990s even as its use of prefabrication became more extensive.
  3. Japan uses prefabrication more widely than the US and has experimented with technologies such as automated skyscraper construction, yet has seen virtually no construction productivity improvement since the 1970s.

Related Articles:

  • Five Decades of Decline: U.S. Construction Sector Productivity — U.S. construction labor productivity in 2023 was essentially unchanged from 1948, with real output per worker in 2020 more than 30% below its 1970 level, even as aggregate U.S. labor productivity tripled between 1950 and 2020. Construction accounted for about 4.5% of U.S. GDP in 2024.
  • The Strange and Awful Path of Productivity in the U.S. Construction Sector — U.S. construction sector labor productivity and total factor productivity grew faster than the whole economy in the 1950s and 1960s, then fell, ending 2020 below their 1950 levels while economywide labor productivity and total factor productivity were 290% and 230% higher. Construction labor productivity fell about 1% a year from 1970 to 2020.
  • Why Has Construction Productivity Stagnated? The Role of Land-Use Regulation — Homes built per construction worker boomed after World War II and fell after 1970, a decline the authors link to local land-use regulation that limits project size and keeps construction firms small and less productive. They estimate US residential builders would be roughly 60% more productive if their size distribution matched manufacturing.

AI Summary. South Korea's low fertility rate reflects in part decades of government antinatalist policy: family planning centered on contraceptive distribution is estimated to have averted 1.8m–2.1m births by 1976 at about $103 per prevented birth in today's money. Fertility fell from six children per woman in 1960 to three by 1978.

Phoebe Arslanagic-Little Works In Progress
Date Posted:

Given current fertility trends, every 100 South Koreans today will have 6 great-grandchildren. ROK’s fertility drop began earlier than the global decline, dating from 1961 following a sustained government effort to reduce fertility, which ended in 1994.

Did decades of government birth-control policy drive South Korea's low fertility?

Core argument: South Korea's total fertility rate fell from six children per woman to three between 1960 and 1978, a drop that took 96 years in the UK and 82 years in the US.

South Korea’s fertility crisis sounds similar to that in the rest of the world – just a much more extreme version. But one cause of its low fertility rate is unusual, especially compared to the Western world. This is the legacy of decades of sustained government action to reduce fertility. By 1976, Korea’s fam­ily planning policy, centering on the promotion and distribution of contraceptives, is estimated to have averted between 1.8 million and 2.1 million births. And it did so remarkably cost-effectively, at a cost of just $103 per prevented birth in today’s money. Between 1960 and 1978, South Korea’s total fertility rate fell from six children per woman to three. Comparable drops took 96 years in the UK and 82 in the US. These antinatalist policies survived the end of Park’s dictatorship in 1979. The fertility rate continued to plummet, falling below replacement rate (2.1 children per woman) in 1984. In 1989 the government stopped giving out free contraceptives and relaxed the sterilization drive. By 1990, South Korea was experiencing the consequences of these policies: the average age of the country was now rising, its working age population had begun to fall, and the country now had an imbalanced sex ratio caused by sex-selective abortions. In 1994, the government officially abandoned its population suppression targets.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. South Korea's total fertility rate fell from six children per woman to three between 1960 and 1978, a drop that took 96 years in the UK and 82 years in the US.
  2. South Korea's family planning policy, centered on promoting and distributing contraceptives, is estimated to have averted 1.8 million to 2.1 million births by 1976, at a cost of $103 per prevented birth in today's money.
  3. South Korea's antinatalist policies outlasted Park's dictatorship, which ended in 1979, with fertility falling below the 2.1 replacement rate in 1984, free contraceptives discontinued in 1989, and population suppression targets abandoned in 1994.

Related Articles:

  • Depopulation Globally and in the Asia-Pacific: The Shape of Things to Come — Population aging and fertility below replacement levels are connected to a revolution in family structure in which families grow smaller, fewer people marry, and voluntary childlessness becomes common across countries. As a result, families become less able to bear the demands that may be placed on them.
  • The Power of Demography and the Fate of East Asia — East Asia's total population has peaked and is projected to decline for at least a generation, with the pace of decline likely accelerating each decade, while US population is projected to keep growing for decades. The author argues such sustained divergence can shift the global balance of power.
  • The Demographic Future of Humanity: Facts and Consequences — The authors estimate the world total fertility rate is around 2.17, below the global replacement rate of roughly 2.21, meaning humanity is already below replacement, with fertility and births falling faster than anticipated. They project middle-income countries' fertility may fall below that of rich countries outside East Asia, with emigration compounding population decline.

AI Summary. Long-term interest rates have drifted higher than short-term rates and oil prices would predict, an unusual pattern during Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles. Proposed explanations include investor concern about growing Treasury debt issuance or an effective increase in the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

U.S. 10-year yields are higher today than at the start of the Fed’s cutting cycle in September 2024. Sløk notes that the “pattern of rising long-term interest rates is highly unusual when we look at the historical reaction during Fed cutting cycles.”

Why are long-term interest rates rising while short-term rates fall?

Core argument: Long-term interest rates began drifting about a year ago above levels predicted by short-term rates and oil prices, a pattern described as highly unusual relative to the historical reaction during Fed cutting cycles.

Why are long-term interest rates going up when the Fed is cutting rates? Is the market worried about growing Treasury issuance, or about a new Fed leadership effectively raising the inflation target from 2% to, say, 4%? The reality is that about a year ago, long-term interest rates started drifting higher than what would have been predicted by short-term interest rates and oil prices. This pattern of rising long-term interest rates is highly unusual when we look at the historical reaction during Fed cutting cycles. The bottom line is that the yield curve continues to steepen, and investors across all asset classes need to think about why.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Long-term interest rates began drifting about a year ago above levels predicted by short-term rates and oil prices, a pattern described as highly unusual relative to the historical reaction during Fed cutting cycles.
  2. Two candidate explanations for rising long-term yields while the Fed cuts are market concern over growing Treasury issuance and the prospect of new Fed leadership effectively raising the inflation target from 2% to around 4%.
  3. The yield curve continues to steepen, a development investors across all asset classes need to think about.

Related Articles:

  • Trump’s Interest Rate Obstacle Is Bigger Than Powell — Bloomberg Economics estimates the natural interest rate has climbed from a low of 1.7% in 2012 to about 2.5%, and projects 2.8% by 2030 as baby boomers retire, foreign savings gluts fade, and government borrowing rises — keeping ten-year Treasury yields between 4.5% and 5%.
  • The Race Between Asset Supply and Asset Demand — The authors estimate that demand for assets has outpaced supply by roughly 400% of GDP versus 100%, making rising asset demand the leading contributor to falling interest rates. They project that debt sustainability requires fiscal consolidation exceeding 10% of GDP, though debt could reach 250% of GDP without raising interest rates.
  • Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! — Interest rates are ultimately driven by macroeconomic fundamentals, with an "intrinsic risk-free rate" defined as the sum of the inflation rate and real GDP growth tracking the observed 10-year Treasury bond yield closely. On this view, central banks' influence comes from preferential access to data on those fundamentals, their capacity to alter them, and their credibility.

AI Summary. China generates more than twice as much electricity as the US, and Goldman Sachs projects it will have roughly 400 gigawatts of spare capacity by 2030 — about 3x expected global data-center power demand. Morgan Stanley forecasts US data centers could face a 44-gigawatt electricity shortfall within three years.

Raffaele Huang and Brian Spegele Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Chinese datacenters can secure power for ~3 cents a kilowatt-hour using long-term purchase agreements. This is 57–67% less than the 7 to 9 cents a kilowatt-hour that datacenters in northern Virginia pay.

Does China's electricity advantage give it an edge in AI?

Core argument: China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. last year, and its power production rose between 2010 and 2024 by more than the rest of the world combined.

Between 2010 and 2024, [China's] power production increased by more than the rest of the world combined. Last year, China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. Morgan Stanley forecasts that China will spend some $560 billion on grid projects in the five years through 2030, up 45% from the previous five years. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, China will have about 400 gigawatts of spare capacity, about three times the world’s expected data-center power demand at that time. The U.S.-China “electron gap,” as OpenAI now calls it, has become a major preoccupation for American tech leaders. Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella has said his company is worried it won’t have enough power to run the enormous number of chips it is buying. In the next three years, U.S. data centers could face an electricity shortfall of 44 gigawatts, the equivalent of New York state’s summertime capacity, Morgan Stanley has forecast, posing a “daunting challenge” for the nation’s AI ambitions.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. last year, and its power production rose between 2010 and 2024 by more than the rest of the world combined.
  2. Morgan Stanley forecasts China will spend some $560 billion on grid projects in the five years through 2030, up 45% from the prior five years, while Goldman Sachs predicts about 400 gigawatts of Chinese spare capacity by 2030, roughly three times expected global data-center power demand.
  3. Morgan Stanley forecasts U.S. data centers could face a 44-gigawatt electricity shortfall within three years, equivalent to New York state's summertime capacity, posing a "daunting challenge" for U.S. AI ambitions.

Related Articles:

  • Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World — China leads in adding power to the grid, with more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines versus zero in the US and lead times for large transformers of 48 weeks against a US average of 143 weeks. This positions China to accommodate new demand sources such as artificial intelligence.
  • What’s Happening to Wholesale Electricity Prices? — Average US retail electricity prices have risen about 35% since 2020, while average wholesale electricity costs have nearly doubled, with wholesale prices far more volatile. Wholesale location marginal prices consist of energy generation costs (typically 80–90% of the total), transmission congestion, and transmission losses, with a price spike partly driven by a large rise in natural gas prices.
  • Europe’s Green Energy Rush Slashed Emissions—and Crippled the Economy — Europe has cut carbon emissions 30% from 2005 levels versus 17% in the US, while the shift to renewables has helped push electricity prices higher across much of the continent. Average electricity prices for heavy industry in the European Union are roughly 2x those in the US and 50% above China.

AI Summary. A US decision to permit Nvidia H200 sales was shaped by an assessment that Huawei competes with Nvidia more closely than acknowledged, with officials finding Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 platform performed as well as Nvidia's most advanced NVL72 system. Officials also concluded Huawei could produce a few million Ascend 910C accelerators annually.

Edward Ludlow and Maggie Eastland Bloomberg
Date Posted:

One driver of Trump’s decision to allow H200 sales to China was an assessment that Huawei will be able to produce Ascend 910C chips, which were designed to compete with Nvidia products, at scale in 2026.

Did Chinese AI chip progress drive the easing of US export limits?

Core argument: US officials concluded Huawei will be capable of producing a few million Ascend 910C accelerators in 2026, against a June US estimate that the Shenzhen-based company could make just 200,000 Ascend chips this year.

Underpinning the move was an assessment that Huawei can compete far more closely with Nvidia than the US has acknowledged. White House officials focused on a Huawei AI platform known as CloudMatrix 384 that relies on the company’s newer Ascend chips, the person said. Officials found that CloudMatrix 384 performed as well as a similar Nvidia system known as NVL72 that uses the US company’s most advanced Blackwell-design chips, according to the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Adding a sense of urgency, the person said, was a conclusion by US officials that Huawei would be capable in 2026 of producing a few million of its Ascend 910C accelerators, a chip designed specifically to compete with Nvidia’s product line. That compares with a US estimate, given in June, that the Shenzhen-based company would be able to make just 200,000 of the Ascend line this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US officials concluded Huawei will be capable of producing a few million Ascend 910C accelerators in 2026, against a June US estimate that the Shenzhen-based company could make just 200,000 Ascend chips this year.
  2. White House officials found Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 platform, built on the company's newer Ascend chips, performed as well as Nvidia's NVL72 system, which uses Nvidia's most advanced Blackwell-design chips.
  3. Trump's H200 reprieve for Nvidia rested on an assessment that Huawei can compete far more closely with Nvidia than the US has acknowledged.

Related Articles:

  • Should the US Sell Hopper Chips to China? — The H200 chip is roughly 6x as powerful as the H20, which requires an export license for China and has been approved only in limited quantities. The authors estimate the US would hold a 21–49x advantage in AI compute produced in a coming year absent chip exports to China, shrinking to between 6.7x and 1.2x with unrestricted H200 exports.
  • The Geopolitics of AI: Decoding the New Global Operating System — The performance gap between the top American and Chinese AI models narrowed from 9.3% to 1.7%, with Chinese firms relying on cheaper open-source models—DeepSeek prices usage 20-40x below OpenAI's ChatGPT. This price advantage could win adoption in developing countries and build dependency on Chinese AI ecosystems.
  • China’s DeepSeek Uses Banned Nvidia Chips for AI Model, Report Says — Chinese AI developer DeepSeek used Nvidia Blackwell chips that were smuggled into China through countries where their sale was permitted, according to a report citing unnamed sources. The chips were installed in data centers abroad, then dismantled and shipped to China after clearing inspection by server-equipment companies.

AI Summary. Defense startup Anduril has hit setbacks across several weapons programs, including engine damage to its unmanned Fury jet fighter in a ground test, a 22-acre fire caused by a counterdrone system test, and software that struggled to command unmanned boats. Former employees report its systems in Ukraine proved vulnerable to jamming.

Shelby Holliday, Heather Somerville, Alistair MacDonald and Emily Glazer Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Tests in the US and on the battlefield in Ukraine suggest that Anduril, a leading new entrant into the defense industry, is facing challenges in developing and fielding attritable mass weapons systems.

Are defense startups hitting setbacks in developing new weapons systems?

Core argument: A mechanical issue damaged the engine of Anduril's unmanned jet fighter Fury during a summer ground test in California, ahead of a first flight critical to the Air Force.

In California, a mechanical issue damaged the engine in Anduril’s unmanned jet fighter Fury in a ground test over the summer ahead of a critical first flight for the Air Force. In August, a test involving its Anvil counterdrone system caused a 22-acre fire in Oregon. And in the exercises with unmanned boats over the summer off the coast of California, Anduril’s Lattice software struggled to command and control vessels. Anduril’s only real battlefield experience—in Ukraine—has been marred by problems as well, including vulnerability to enemy jamming, according to former employees and others familiar with the systems in Ukraine. Some front-line soldiers of Ukraine’s SBU security service, for instance, found that their Altius loitering drones crashed and failed to hit their targets. The drones were so problematic that they stopped using them in 2024 and haven’t fielded them since, according to people familiar with the matter.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A mechanical issue damaged the engine of Anduril's unmanned jet fighter Fury during a summer ground test in California, ahead of a first flight critical to the Air Force.
  2. A test of Anduril's Anvil counterdrone system caused a 22-acre fire in Oregon in August, and the company's Lattice software struggled to command and control unmanned boats in summer exercises off California.
  3. Ukraine's SBU security service stopped using Anduril's Altius loitering drones in 2024 after the drones crashed and failed to hit targets, and has not fielded them since, according to people familiar with the matter.

Related Articles:

  • Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any — China's DJI accounts for about 70% of commercial drones sold globally, and industry experts estimate its output far exceeds that of any other manufacturer, with capacity in the millions of drones a year. About 500 US companies manufacture drones, producing fewer than 100,000 annually, according to an industry association.
  • Why Every Country Needs To Master The Electric Tech Stack — Drones are the foundation of hard power in the early 21st century, so a country unable to produce them domestically is at a disadvantage. As electric motors overtake combustion engines as the core technology that makes machines move, the same supply chains and production processes used for electronics can also produce cars, drones, robots, and appliances.
  • U.S. Military Is Struggling to Deploy AI Weapons — A U.S. military showcase of autonomous weapons acquired under the Pentagon's Replicator program revealed systems that were not ready for operational use. An unmanned boat suffered a rudder failure and drifted away, an aerial drone launch was delayed over a possible problem with its launch tubes, and onboard software misidentified or failed to identify objects.

Friday, December 12, 2025

AI Summary. An analysis of about 4.5m households in US public and government-subsidized housing estimates that a majority of tenant stays last longer than the 10-year average spell of welfare receipt. Because rent is capped at 30% of adjusted income, rising income raises rent in tandem, creating an effective 30% marginal tax rate that discourages work.

Howard Husock and Bruce Meyer National Affairs
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

HUD data on 4.5mm households show a median stay in public or subsidized housing of 10–15 years, often absent disability or old age. The rent cap equal to 30% of income acts as a 30% earnings tax, disincentivising work.

Does income-based rent in subsidized housing discourage work and lengthen stays?

Core argument: American Enterprise Institute analysis of HUD data covering roughly 4.5 million households estimates that a majority of tenant spells in public and government-subsidized housing extend beyond the 10-year average spell of welfare receipt.

Recent HUD data [provided to] the American Enterprise Institute enabled us to estimate the likely duration of a spell in public and government-subsidized housing for both new entrants and the existing tenant population. Our analysis, covering roughly 4.5 million households, found that a majority of tenant spells in public and government-subsidized housing extend beyond the 10-year average spells of welfare receipts. Tenants' rent payments are limited to 30% of adjusted monthly income. As their income rises, the share of rent tenants must pay increases in tandem, by virtue of an effective 30% marginal tax rate further discouraging work. Housing assistance is not an entitlement - eligibility does not guarantee access, and accessibility is constrained by the supply of housing units. Today, there are under 1 million public-housing units in the United States. The number of HCV vouchers (currently over 2.3 million) is determined annually through the federal-budget process. Due to the limited supply, many households remain on waiting lists for years. Successful households wait an average of 20 months to enter public housing and 26 months to receive a voucher. The lack of time limits thus affects not only tenants, but also those who qualify for assistance but don't receive it.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. American Enterprise Institute analysis of HUD data covering roughly 4.5 million households estimates that a majority of tenant spells in public and government-subsidized housing extend beyond the 10-year average spell of welfare receipt.
  2. Tenants' rent payments are limited to 30% of adjusted monthly income, so rent rises as income rises, an effective 30% marginal tax rate that further discourages work.
  3. Housing assistance is not an entitlement: the United States has under 1 million public-housing units and over 2.3 million vouchers set annually through the federal budget, and successful households wait an average of 20 months for public housing and 26 months for a voucher.

Related Articles:

AI Summary. Most people leaving New York City move to nearby suburbs such as Long Island and Westchester, citing housing—more space, ownership, or a better home than they can afford—as their main motivation. Those leaving for other states tend to be younger, more educated, and childless, and move primarily for jobs.

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

Why do most people leaving the city move to nearby suburbs?

Core argument: Four out of five people leaving New York City stay within the metro area, moving to places like Long Island and Westchester and citing housing as their primary motivation.

The vast majority of NYC emigrants aren’t fleeing to Texas or Florida—they’re moving to Long Island and Westchester, citing housing as their primary motivation. These are not people who have given up on the New York metro area; they’re people who want more space, want to own rather than rent, or simply want a better home than they can afford in the five boroughs. Interstate movers are a different story. They tend to be younger, more educated, and childless—and they leave primarily for jobs. This cohort is harder to retain through housing policy alone; their departures reflect the pull of opportunity elsewhere rather than the push of inadequate housing. The policy implication is straightforward: New York City cannot compete with booming job markets in other cities or Miami’s climate.  The four out of five emigrants from New York City who stay local are, in effect, still rooting for New York—they just need a place to live.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Four out of five people leaving New York City stay within the metro area, moving to places like Long Island and Westchester and citing housing as their primary motivation.
  2. Local movers from New York City are seeking more space, homeownership rather than renting, or a better home than they can afford in the five boroughs.
  3. Interstate movers from New York City tend to be younger, more educated, and childless, and they leave primarily for jobs, making them harder to retain through housing policy alone.

Related Articles:

  • Can New York Grow Again? — New York City's population has historically balanced natural growth and international inflows against domestic outflows, but outflows have come to dominate, leaving the city shrinking at its fastest pace since the 1970s. Its contraction of more than 3% is twice that of Philadelphia, the next-fastest-shrinking large US city.
  • The Clock Now Ticks on Zohran Mamdani — New York City's share of the nation's millionaires has fallen 30% since 2010 and major banks have expanded in Dallas and Atlanta as finance's share of city employment shrank. The author argues a proposed city tax plan would leave remaining high earners paying 60% of taxes.
  • As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting — New York state's share of US taxpayers reporting over $1m in income fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022, and the Citizens Budget Commission estimates state and city income tax receipts from that group would have been $13bn higher had the share held. Job growth has concentrated in lower-paid health care and social assistance.

AI Summary. China's trade balance with Germany, Europe's largest economy, has flipped from a $25bn deficit to a $23bn surplus, driven by a collapse in imports. European leaders describe the imbalance as an existential threat to European industry and say the bloc's relationship with China has reached an inflection point.

Bloomberg Staff Bloomberg
Date Posted:

China’s 2025 trade surplus with Europe is approaching $300B. The value of China’s exports to the EU is now more than double its imports, as Chinese sellers divert goods facing levies in the US.

Is China's trade shift with Europe threatening European industry?

Core argument: China's $25 billion trade deficit with Europe's biggest economy in 2019 flipped to a $23 billion surplus in the first 11 months of this year, due to a collapse in imports.

In 2019, China ran a $25 billion deficit with Europe’s biggest economy. In the first 11 months of this year, that’s flipped to a $23 billion surplus due to the collapse in imports. French President Emmanuel Macron has branded the trade imbalance with China “unbearable,” saying what’s at stake now is “a question of life or death for European industry.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen believes the bloc’s ties with China “have reached an inflection point.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's $25 billion trade deficit with Europe's biggest economy in 2019 flipped to a $23 billion surplus in the first 11 months of this year, due to a collapse in imports.
  2. French President Emmanuel Macron called the trade imbalance with China "unbearable," saying what is at stake is "a question of life or death for European industry.".
  3. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the bloc's ties with China "have reached an inflection point.".

Related Articles:

  • Europe’s Green Energy Rush Slashed Emissions—and Crippled the Economy — Europe has cut carbon emissions 30% from 2005 levels versus 17% in the US, while the shift to renewables has helped push electricity prices higher across much of the continent. Average electricity prices for heavy industry in the European Union are roughly 2x those in the US and 50% above China.
  • Sticking with What Works: Raising GDP Forecast on China’s Manufacturing Push — Stronger Chinese growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing may not produce net positive spillovers: for every 1pp export-driven boost to China's GDP, other economies may see a 0.1–0.3pp drag, with high-tech producers such as Europe and Japan facing greater pressure. Cheaper Chinese goods continue to exert a disinflationary impulse.
  • The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — A European Union competitiveness report attributes the EU's labour productivity growth gap with the US largely to weaker activity in information and communications technology and large-scale digital services; excluding main ICT sectors, EU productivity was broadly at par with the US from 2000-2019. It estimates Europe's investment share must rise about 5 percentage points of GDP.

AI Summary. Mexico has approved tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese cars and other goods, from footwear to microwaves, more than double the previous 15%–20% rate and the highest allowed under World Trade Organization rules. Chinese imports account for a fifth of Mexican imports, and China's commerce ministry opposed the increase.

Jude Webber Financial Times
Date Posted:

Mexico is imposing tariffs of up to 50% on 1,400 Chinese goods, double the current 15–20% levies. Mexico was the world’s biggest buyer of Chinese-made cars in the first half of the year.

Is Mexico raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 50%?

Core argument: Mexico approved tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese cars and other goods, more than double the current 15–20% rate and the highest level allowed under World Trade Organization rules.

Mexico has approved tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese cars and other goods. While it will affect goods ranging from trainers to microwaves, Chinese cars will be hit the hardest. Mexico’s new 50% levy — more than double the current 15% to 20% tariff — was the highest allowed under World Trade Organization rules. Chinese imports make up a fifth of Mexican imports, official statistics show, and in November, 20% of cars sold in Mexico were imported from China, according to the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors. Mexico was the world’s biggest buyer of Chinese-made cars in the first half of this year, according to Shanghai consultancy Automobility. China’s commerce ministry said it opposed “unilateral tariff increases” and had launched an investigation into trade and investment barriers in Mexico.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Mexico approved tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese cars and other goods, more than double the current 15–20% rate and the highest level allowed under World Trade Organization rules.
  2. Chinese imports account for a fifth of Mexican imports according to official statistics, and 20% of cars sold in Mexico in November were imported from China, according to the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors.
  3. Mexico was the world's biggest buyer of Chinese-made cars in the first half of this year, according to Shanghai consultancy Automobility, and China's commerce ministry said it opposed "unilateral tariff increases" and had launched an investigation into Mexican trade and investment barriers.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion After Exports Rebound — China's trade surplus reached $1.1tn in 11 months, exceeding its previous full-year record, as strong export growth to the European Union and Africa more than offset a 29% drop in shipments to the US. France's president has warned the EU may impose tariffs if Beijing does not address the imbalance.
  • Sticking with What Works: Raising GDP Forecast on China’s Manufacturing Push — Stronger Chinese growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing may not produce net positive spillovers: for every 1pp export-driven boost to China's GDP, other economies may see a 0.1–0.3pp drag, with high-tech producers such as Europe and Japan facing greater pressure. Cheaper Chinese goods continue to exert a disinflationary impulse.
  • Mexico Is Not Just the Top Supplier to the U.S. Now It Is the Top Buyer — Mexico is now both the largest buyer of U.S. exports and the largest source of U.S. imports, with U.S. goods exports to Mexico at $226.4bn versus $225.6bn to Canada and imports from Mexico totaling $354.9bn. Mexico's growth, including its middle class, has increased demand for U.S. goods among its more than 130 million people.

AI Summary. Men's value as partners remains closely tied to their capacity to provide financial security: 74% of women without a college degree and 89% of college-educated women say a potential partner's unemployment would make them less interested in dating, compared with 47% of men without a college degree.

Daniel Cox American Storylines
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

49% of men under the age of 40 without any college experience do not have a spouse or a short or long-term partner, compared to 27% of their female peers and 18% of college-educated women.

Do women still tie men's romantic appeal to financial security?

Core argument: 74% of non-college women say a partner's unemployment would make them less interested in dating, compared with 47% of non-college men who say the same.

There’s a more fundamental reason why so many non-college men struggle on the dating market. Men’s value is still tightly tethered to traditional expectations that they will be able to provide. Their value as partners is closely tied to their willingness and capacity to offer financial security. There’s a great deal of evidence for this. Less than half (47%) of non-college men said that they would be less likely to date someone who was unemployed. By contrast, roughly three-quarters (74%) of non-college women say that being unemployed would make them less interested. A remarkable 89% of college-educated women say that employment status has a bearing on their level of romantic interest.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. 74% of non-college women say a partner's unemployment would make them less interested in dating, compared with 47% of non-college men who say the same.
  2. 89% of college-educated women say a potential partner's employment status bears on their level of romantic interest.
  3. The author argues non-college men struggle on the dating market because men's value as partners remains tied to traditional expectations that they provide financial security.

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  • Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates — Marriage rates for college-educated women have remained stable over the past fifty years even as the relative supply of college-educated men declined, with the overall decline in marriage driven almost entirely by fewer marriages between non-college women and non-college men. The education gap in women's marriage rates is larger in areas where non-college men face the highest joblessness and incarceration.
  • Changes in Milestones of Adulthood — Among US young adults aged 25–34, the share completing a high school or college degree rose 9 percentage points to 83%, while the share ever married fell 18 points to 44% and the share living with a child fell 16 points to 39%. Economic milestones became more common as family formation milestones became less common.

AI Summary. China completed the maiden flight of the "Jiutian," an unmanned aerial vehicle described as the world's largest drone mothership, capable of carrying multiple drones and missiles and launching weaponized drone swarms.

Josh Xiao Bloomberg
Date Posted:

China conducted the first test flight of its “Jiutian” drone mothership, which has eight hardpoints for guided bombs, air-to-air and anti-ship missiles, and kamikaze drones, as well as carrying more than 100 small drones designed to launch in swarms.

Has China flown the world's largest drone-carrying aircraft?

Core argument: China completed the maiden flight of the unmanned "Jiutian," considered the world's largest drone mothership, in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

China conducted the maiden flight of what is considered to be the world’s largest drone mothership, underscoring its advances in unmanned aerial vehicles capable of unleashing weaponized swarms. The unmanned “Jiutian” completed its first mission in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Thursday without elaborating. The aerial vehicle has been likened to an aircraft carrier for its ability to host multiple drones and missiles. Jiutian means “nine heavens” — a Chinese term for extremely high skies.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China completed the maiden flight of the unmanned "Jiutian," considered the world's largest drone mothership, in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
  2. The Jiutian has been likened to an aircraft carrier for its ability to host multiple drones and missiles.
  3. Jiutian means "nine heavens," a Chinese term for extremely high skies.

Related Articles:

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  • ‘We Do Fail … a Lot’: Defense Startup Anduril Hits Setbacks With Weapons Tech — Defense startup Anduril has hit setbacks across several weapons programs, including engine damage to its unmanned Fury jet fighter in a ground test, a 22-acre fire caused by a counterdrone system test, and software that struggled to command unmanned boats. Former employees report its systems in Ukraine proved vulnerable to jamming.
  • Why Every Country Needs To Master The Electric Tech Stack — Drones are the foundation of hard power in the early 21st century, so a country unable to produce them domestically is at a disadvantage. As electric motors overtake combustion engines as the core technology that makes machines move, the same supply chains and production processes used for electronics can also produce cars, drones, robots, and appliances.