Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, November 19, 2025

AI Summary. Yields on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached their highest level since 2008 and 30-year yields hit a record intraday high of 3.35%. Traders attribute the sell-off to signs the Japanese government is preparing a supplementary budget of at least ¥25tn ($161bn) to boost the economy and shield households from rising prices.

Leo Lewis and Ian Smith Financial Times
Date Posted:

Yields on the 10-year JGB hit 1.78%, the highest level since June 2008, as investors anticipate further fiscal expansion in Japan.

Are expectations of a large stimulus package pushing Japanese bond yields higher?

Core argument: Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose as much as 0.04 percentage points to 1.78%, its highest since June 2008, before easing back to 1.76%.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds, which move inversely to price, climbed as much as 0.04 percentage points to 1.78% on Wednesday — the highest level since June 2008 in the global financial crisis — before falling back to 1.76%. The sell-off extended to longer-dated notes. Yields on 30-year JGBs rose to a record intraday high of 3.35%. Driving the rise in JGB yields, said traders, were signs that the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was preparing a huge supplementary budget of at least ¥25tn ($161bn) as she seeks to make good on pledges to boost the economy and protect households from rising prices.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose as much as 0.04 percentage points to 1.78%, its highest since June 2008, before easing back to 1.76%.
  2. Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a record intraday high of 3.35% as the sell-off extended to longer-dated notes.
  3. Traders attributed the rise in Japanese government bond yields to signs that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government was preparing a supplementary budget of at least ¥25tn ($161bn) to boost the economy and shield households from rising prices.

Related Articles:

  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.
  • Japan Urged to Use Gloomier Population Forecasts After Plunge in Births — Japanese births fell to a record low of 686,000 in 2024, dropping below 700,000 for the first time since 19th-century records began and reaching a level Japan's official median population forecast had not projected until 2039. Because the government bases economic and fiscal policy on that median forecast, adopting lower estimates would require revising projections for taxes and pension benefits.
  • Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money — Japan's public sector operates as a highly leveraged sovereign wealth fund, funding risky assets by borrowing from banks and depositors at below-market rates, with returns sustaining its debt-to-GDP ratio above 200% without primary surpluses. The authors argue the resulting duration and currency mismatches expose Japan to mark-to-market losses that could trigger a fiscal crisis or a run on the yen.

AI Summary. International Monetary Fund data show Denmark with the largest rise in foreign ownership of government debt and Greece with the largest fall, with emerging markets also seeing very large declines. The author reads this as markets gravitating toward low-debt safe havens while foreign investor confidence in high-debt countries remains low.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
Date Posted:

With its debt at only 30% of GDP, Denmark is attracting foreign investors, who owned ~ 25% of Danish debt in 2019, compared to almost 45% today. Overall, Brooks argues, “global investors are retrenching at home.”

Do foreign investors favor low-debt countries over high-debt ones?

Core argument: Denmark recorded the largest rise in foreign ownership of government debt between Q4 2019 and Q2 2025, which the author reads as consistent with markets gravitating to low-debt economies in their search for safe havens.

The horizontal axis in the chart shows IMF data on foreign ownership of government debt in Q2 2025 (the latest data point available). The vertical axis shows the same thing in Q4 2019, i.e. before COVID hit. Countries below and to the right of the dotted diagonal line have seen foreign ownership rise over this time frame, while countries above and to the left have seen it fall. I’ve colored the G10 in blue, the Euro zone in red and EM in black. Several points are worth noting. First, Denmark has seen the biggest rise in foreign ownership, consistent with markets gravitating to low-debt economies in their search for safe havens. Second, Greece has seen the biggest fall in foreign ownership, a reminder that foreign investor confidence in high-debt countries remains low, regardless of ECB actions. Third, EM has seen very large falls in foreign ownership.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Denmark recorded the largest rise in foreign ownership of government debt between Q4 2019 and Q2 2025, which the author reads as consistent with markets gravitating to low-debt economies in their search for safe havens.
  2. Greece recorded the largest fall in foreign ownership of government debt over the same period, which the author cites as a reminder that foreign investor confidence in high-debt countries remains low regardless of ECB actions.
  3. Emerging markets recorded very large falls in foreign ownership of government debt between Q4 2019 and Q2 2025, based on IMF data.

Related Articles:

  • Buy America — Despite multi-trillion deficits, investors show no sign of concern about US government debt, and the Treasury has supported demand by shifting issuance toward maturities with the strongest buyer interest. Short-term bills now make up 22% of marketable Treasuries, absorbed largely by money market funds whose assets have grown to $7tn.
  • The Race Between Asset Supply and Asset Demand — The authors estimate that demand for assets has outpaced supply by roughly 400% of GDP versus 100%, making rising asset demand the leading contributor to falling interest rates. They project that debt sustainability requires fiscal consolidation exceeding 10% of GDP, though debt could reach 250% of GDP without raising interest rates.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.

AI Summary. During the earlier decline in bank reserves at the Federal Reserve, the drop came entirely from domestically chartered U.S. banks while U.S. branches of foreign banks kept adding reserves; more recently foreign banks' U.S. offices have shed roughly $400bn in reserves while domestic banks largely held theirs. That reversal returns foreign banks to their pre-pandemic pattern of mediating reserve swings.

Matt Klein The Overshoot
Date Posted:

From the pandemic to April 2025, foreign banks’ reserve holdings at the FRBNY continued to rise, even as domestic banks sharply reduced their holdings. Since July, Klein infers, $400B of the $500B reduction in reserves was attributable to foreign banks.

Are foreign banks' US branches driving the recent drop in Fed reserves?

Core argument: U.S. offices of foreign banks have shed about $400 billion of reserves since April 2025, while domestically-chartered banks mostly held onto theirs.

When reserves were falling in December 2021-September 2022, the entire decline was attributable to domestically-chartered U.S. banks. Foreign banks, via their U.S. branches and agencies, did not shed any reserves, and had been steadily adding to their reserves at the Fed right up until April 2025. But this time around, U.S. offices of foreign banks have been the ones shedding reserves in droves, even as domestically-charted banks mostly held onto their reserves. From the perspective of 2008-2019, the recent behavior of foreign banks during a period of shrinking reserve balances at the Fed does not look odd. Until the pandemic, most of the growth and decline in reserves at the Fed was mediated through changes in the balance sheets of the U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, including their interoffice borrowing. But something was different in the past few years, such that foreign banks continued to hold reserves and maintain their overall U.S. exposure even as the total volume of bank reserves fell sharply in 2022. It seems like more than a coincidence that foreign banks suddenly switched back to their prior behavior in the beginning of April 2025. The big drop in reserves held by all banks in New York over the past few months [an absolute drop of 400B in foreign reserve holdings] tracks the reported drop in foreign-related institutions’ cash assets almost perfectly.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. offices of foreign banks have shed about $400 billion of reserves since April 2025, while domestically-chartered banks mostly held onto theirs.
  2. During the December 2021–September 2022 decline in reserves, the entire drop was attributable to domestically-chartered U.S. banks, as foreign banks' U.S. branches and agencies shed none and added steadily until April 2025.
  3. From 2008 to 2019, most of the growth and decline in reserves at the Fed was mediated through the balance sheets of U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, including interoffice borrowing, a pattern foreign banks appear to have resumed in April 2025.

Related Articles:

  • Signs of Stress in Money Markets — Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction and heavy Treasury bill issuance are pushing money market funding spreads higher, with key overnight repo rates rising above the rate the Federal Reserve pays on bank reserves. The financial system is nearing the point where bank reserves are no longer ample, and persistent funding-rate volatility could affect credit markets.
  • Are Foreigners Selling US Assets (Part II) — Proprietary flow tracking shows foreign bond flows into US assets, an outlier low in one month, have substantially normalized, suggesting an allocation shift away from dollar assets may have peaked. The authors argue traditional fundamentals, such as the US business cycle and Federal Reserve policy, will matter more for any further dollar weakness.
  • Treasury Market Dysfunction and the Role of the Central Bank — The authors argue the Federal Reserve could relieve Treasury market strain by buying cash Treasuries while fully hedging with offsetting short positions in Treasury derivatives, taking the other side of hedge funds' unwinding of hedged positions. Because this removes no net duration from the market, it distinguishes market-functioning purchases from quantitative easing.

AI Summary. The Dutch government has stepped back from its intervention in chipmaker Nexperia, which it justified by citing "serious governance shortcomings" and which disrupted supply chains in car manufacturing and other industries. The ousted Chinese chief executive does not return and Wingtech's voting rights stay with a court-appointed administrator, which China calls the key obstacle to resolution.

Kana Inagaki, Andy Bounds and Sebastien Ash Financial Times
Date Posted:

The Dutch government is suspending its intervention in Nexperia following talks with the Chinese government. The Chinese CEO will not return to the job and the firm will be run by Europeans.

Does withdrawing a government seizure of a chipmaker resolve supply disruptions?

Core argument: The Dutch government stepped back from its intervention in Nexperia, which it had seized in October citing "serious governance shortcomings" by Zhang Xuezheng, after the seizure and the court's removal of the Chinese chief executive disrupted car manufacturing and other industries.

The Dutch government in October seized control of Nexperia and the Amsterdam court of appeal forced out the Chinese chief executive, sparking supply chain disruptions in car manufacturing and other industries. It said it had to act against Zhang Xuezheng, also the main shareholder of Wingtech, because of “serious governance shortcomings”. Nexperia said the latest development would not return Zhang to office and that Wingtech’s voting rights would remain under the control of a court-appointed administrator. European executives are running the company. China’s commerce ministry said it welcomed the Dutch move, calling it a “first step” following two days of consultations in Beijing. It also called on the Netherlands to fully revoke its decision and said that the Amsterdam court of appeal’s ruling stripping Wingtech of control of Nexperia remained the key obstacle to resolving any issues.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Dutch government stepped back from its intervention in Nexperia, which it had seized in October citing "serious governance shortcomings" by Zhang Xuezheng, after the seizure and the court's removal of the Chinese chief executive disrupted car manufacturing and other industries.
  2. Nexperia said the Dutch move will not return Zhang to office and that Wingtech's voting rights remain under the control of a court-appointed administrator, with European executives running the company.
  3. China's commerce ministry welcomed the Dutch move as a "first step" after two days of consultations in Beijing, urging the Netherlands to fully revoke its decision and calling the Amsterdam court of appeal's ruling stripping Wingtech of control the key obstacle.

Related Articles:

  • Dutch Seized Nexperia After US Demanded Chinese CEO’s Exit — The Dutch government took control of chipmaker Nexperia under a Cold War-era law on access to essential products after US officials said replacing its Chinese chief executive was almost certainly required to keep the company off a US sanctions list. The CEO was suspended and replaced by its European finance chief.
  • Underestimating China — China's productive capacity is three times that of the United States and exceeds the next nine countries combined, with its share of global manufacturing quintupling to 30% while the U.S. share halved to about 15%. The authors argue Washington must convert its alliances into a platform for pooled capacity building.
  • Sticking with What Works: Raising GDP Forecast on China’s Manufacturing Push — Stronger Chinese growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing may not produce net positive spillovers: for every 1pp export-driven boost to China's GDP, other economies may see a 0.1–0.3pp drag, with high-tech producers such as Europe and Japan facing greater pressure. Cheaper Chinese goods continue to exert a disinflationary impulse.

AI Summary. Geothermal supplies less than 1% of global and U.S. energy, but Princeton University researchers project that technical innovations could allow widely available geothermal power to generate nearly 3x the current output of America's nuclear plants by 2050. Next-generation developers have demonstrated 70% year-on-year cuts in drilling times, lowering costs.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Citing Fervo’s 70% y/y reduction in drilling times, a Stanford analysis suggests “the power costs of geothermal will be competitive with rival fuels by 2027.” A Princeton analysis suggests geothermal output could triple US nuclear power by 2050.

Can technical innovation make geothermal a major power source?

Core argument: Geothermal supplies less than 1% of global and American energy today, but Princeton University researchers predict technical innovations could let widely available geothermal power produce nearly triple the output of U.S. nuclear plants by 2050.

Today, less than 1% of global (and American) energy comes from geothermal. But researchers at Princeton University predict that technical innovations mean widely available geothermal power could produce nearly triple the current output of the country’s nuclear power plants (which supply roughly 20% of America’s electricity at present) by 2050. The International Energy Agency envisions a $1trn global investment boom by 2035. A paper published in Nature Reviews Clean Technology in January by Roland Horne of Stanford University examined the rapid technical progress of the next-generation geothermal industry. Fervo has demonstrated a 70% year-on-year reduction in drilling times, which translates directly into much lower costs. Professor Horne reckoned that the power costs of geothermal will be competitive with rival fuels by 2027.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Geothermal supplies less than 1% of global and American energy today, but Princeton University researchers predict technical innovations could let widely available geothermal power produce nearly triple the output of U.S. nuclear plants by 2050.
  2. Fervo has demonstrated a 70% year-on-year reduction in drilling times, which translates into much lower costs, and Stanford University's Roland Horne reckons geothermal power costs will be competitive with rival fuels by 2027.
  3. The International Energy Agency envisions a $1trn global geothermal investment boom by 2035, and Horne's paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology examined the next-generation industry's rapid technical progress.

Related Articles:

  • Energy Startup Says It Has Achieved Geothermal Tech Breakthrough — Startup Fervo Energy completed a 30-day full-scale well test of enhanced geothermal technology at its northern Nevada site that generated 3.5 megawatts of electricity, with the project set to power Google data centers and infrastructure in the state. The company projects its Utah site will deliver about 400 megawatts.
  • Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World — China leads in adding power to the grid, with more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines versus zero in the US and lead times for large transformers of 48 weeks against a US average of 143 weeks. This positions China to accommodate new demand sources such as artificial intelligence.
  • World Energy Outlook 2025 — Global electricity demand is projected to rise roughly 40–50% by 2035, even though electricity currently accounts for only 21% of total final energy consumption worldwide. Electricity use by servers optimized for artificial intelligence is projected to rise fivefold by 2030, yet data centres are projected to account for less than 10% of global electricity demand growth through 2030.

AI Summary. China's Tsinghua University collected 4,986 artificial intelligence and machine learning patents from 2005 through 2024, receiving more patents annually than MIT, Stanford, Princeton and Harvard combined, and China accounts for more than half of all active patent families in those fields. US institutions still hold the most influential AI patents and produced more notable AI models, 40 to China's 15.

Saritha Rai Bloomberg
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Tsinghua students and faculty are creating more patents related to machine learning and AI than MIT, Stanford, Princeton and Harvard combined. However, American patents, as measured by citations, are rising in relevance compared to Tsinghua’s.

Does China lead in AI patent volume but not influence?

Core argument: Tsinghua University collected 4,986 AI and machine learning patents between 2005 and the end of 2024, including more than 900 in 2024, and receives more patents annually than MIT, Stanford, Princeton and Harvard combined, according to LexisNexis.

[Tsinghua University's] professors and students are quietly accumulating massive amounts of intellectual property. They already had more AI research papers among the 100 most cited than any other school at last count, and they receive more patents each year than MIT, Stanford, Princeton and Harvard combined. Tsinghua collected 4,986 AI and machine learning patents between 2005 and the end of 2024, including more than 900 last year, according to the data analytics service LexisNexis. Overall, China now accounts for more than half of all active patent families globally in those fields. The US still holds the most influential AI patents and the top performing models. Harvard and MIT, for example, consistently rank ahead of Tsinghua in the influence of their patents. American institutions also produce more notable AI models than China — 40 to 15 in 2024, according to Stanford’s AI Index Report — though Chinese organizations are closing the gap in certain performance benchmarks.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Tsinghua University collected 4,986 AI and machine learning patents between 2005 and the end of 2024, including more than 900 in 2024, and receives more patents annually than MIT, Stanford, Princeton and Harvard combined, according to LexisNexis.
  2. China accounts for more than half of all active patent families globally in AI and machine learning, while the US still holds the most influential AI patents, with Harvard and MIT consistently ranking ahead of Tsinghua on patent influence.
  3. American institutions produced 40 notable AI models in 2024 versus 15 from China, according to Stanford's AI Index Report, though Chinese organizations are closing the gap on certain performance benchmarks.

Related Articles:

  • Paper Tiger? Chinese Science and Home Bias in Citations — Researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country, and measured against a benchmark that distributes world citations by the size of citing and cited countries, every country studied shows some home bias. The authors estimate China is a clear outlier at 42.3%, followed by Iran and India at 23.2% each and the US at 15.9%.
  • Creating and Connecting US and China Science: Chinese Diaspora and Returnee Researchers — The authors estimate that China-born researchers working in the US contributed to 27% of US-addressed scientific papers, while China-born researchers with US experience who returned home contributed to 38% of China-addressed papers. Papers with these authors averaged more citations and appeared more often in high-impact journals than other papers.
  • The Global AI Talent Tracker 2.0 — The United States remains the leading destination for the world's most elite AI talent and hosts 60% of top AI institutions. China's share of top AI researchers working domestically rose from 29% in 2019 to 47% in 2022, and India retained one-fifth of its top AI researchers in 2022 versus nearly none in 2019.

Thursday, November 20, 2025

AI Summary. Mexico is now both the largest buyer of U.S. exports and the largest source of U.S. imports, with U.S. goods exports to Mexico at $226.4bn versus $225.6bn to Canada and imports from Mexico totaling $354.9bn. Mexico's growth, including its middle class, has increased demand for U.S. goods among its more than 130 million people.

James Wagner New York Times
Date Posted:

Mexico has overtaken Canada as the largest buyer of American goods. In 2023 Mexico outpaced China to become the largest foreign seller of goods to the US.

Has Mexico become the top buyer and supplier of U.S. goods?

Core argument: Mexico bought $226.4 billion of the $1.4 trillion in goods the U.S. exported from January to August, ahead of Canada's $225.6 billion, according to Commerce Department data.

Mexico and the United States share what is considered the busiest land border in the world. As Mexico has grown, particularly its middle class, the country of over 130 million people has hungered for more U.S. goods. From January to August, the new [Commerce Department data] showed, the U.S. exported $1.4 trillion worth of goods, with $225.6 billion heading to Canada and $226.4 billion to Mexico. (In 2024, the United States exported $349.4 billion to Canada and $334 billion to Mexico.) So far this year, U.S. data show that its imports from Mexico have totaled $354.9 billion — up from the same period in 2024 — followed by imports from Canada and China.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Mexico bought $226.4 billion of the $1.4 trillion in goods the U.S. exported from January to August, ahead of Canada's $225.6 billion, according to Commerce Department data.
  2. U.S. imports from Mexico totaled $354.9 billion so far this year, up from the same period in 2024 and ahead of imports from Canada and China.
  3. In 2024 the U.S. exported $349.4 billion to Canada and $334 billion to Mexico, while Mexico's growth and expanding middle class in a country of over 130 million people have fed demand for U.S. goods.

Related Articles:

  • China Launches Sweeping Probe Into Mexican Tariffs As Trade War Widens — China has opened an investigation into Mexico's tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese exports, including a proposed 50% tariff on Chinese cars and levies on about 1,400 products from countries lacking a trade deal with Mexico. China's commerce ministry says the measures would seriously damage Chinese companies' trade and investment interests.
  • China Delays Approval of BYD’s Mexico Plant Amid Fears Tech Could Leak to US — China's commerce ministry has withheld the approval that domestic automakers need to manufacture abroad, holding up BYD's planned Mexican car plant, which the company said would create 10,000 jobs and build 150,000 vehicles a year. Officials are concerned that Mexico's proximity to the US could give Mexico, and possibly the US, access to BYD's advanced technology and knowhow.
  • The City Where Mexico’s Nearshoring Hype is Becoming Reality — Mexico became the United States' largest trading partner, ahead of Canada, as it won a bigger share of ground lost by China, and investors identify it as among the countries best placed to benefit from geopolitical shifts. Skeptics note that record foreign direct investment of $32.9bn over nine months mostly reflects reinvested profits rather than new projects.

AI Summary. Asia's foreign-exchange reserves have risen to almost $8tn across the region's 11 largest monetary authorities, giving central banks from Tokyo to Mumbai substantial capacity to defend their currencies. The buildup has been aided by a decline in the dollar and a rally in gold prices.

Subhadip Sircar Bloomberg
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Asia’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen $400B this year to ~$8T. The increase has been in part driven by this year’s decline in the dollar and rally in gold prices.

Have Asian central banks built enough reserves to defend their currencies?

Core argument: Asia's 11 largest monetary authorities hold foreign-exchange reserves of close to $8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, giving authorities from Tokyo to Mumbai ammunition to step up defense of their currencies.

Asia’s foreign-exchange reserves have surged to almost $8 trillion, providing the authorities from Tokyo to Mumbai with ample ammunition if they need to step up defending their currencies. The major central banks in the region have added more than $400 billion to their reserves this year, with 11 of the largest monetary authorities now having a stockpile of close to $8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The increase has been helped by this year’s decline in the dollar and rally in gold prices.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Asia's 11 largest monetary authorities hold foreign-exchange reserves of close to $8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, giving authorities from Tokyo to Mumbai ammunition to step up defense of their currencies.
  2. Asia's major central banks have added more than $400 billion to their reserves this year, an increase helped by the dollar's decline and the rally in gold prices.

Related Articles:

  • China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign: Global Implications — China's economy has slowed as domestic investment stagnates and consumer spending stays weak, with the shortfall partly offset by rising net exports. The author argues these internal problems are being passed to the rest of the world, since export values are rising about 6% a year while import values are down 2.2%.
  • China’s Massive Surplus Is Everywhere (Yet The IMF Still Has Trouble Seeing It Clearly) — China's manufactured goods surplus exceeds $2tn in its own customs data, about 10.5% of Chinese GDP and over 2% of world GDP, far exceeding the combined peak surpluses of Germany and Japan. The author argues the International Monetary Fund understates this by relying solely on reported current account balances, which have not similarly jumped.
  • How to Fix Free Trade — The article proposes a new global customs union open to countries that agree to keep their current account balances with the union within a narrow band, with variable tariffs or capital-flow taxes applied to nonmembers. It argues gains from trade are largest when trade flows are reciprocal and sustainable.

AI Summary. In interviews with 1,000 adults in Memphis, Tulsa, and New Orleans who self-identified as having grown up poor, the authors found human capital was the strongest predictor of escaping poverty, followed by noncognitive skills such as resilience, self-esteem, and conscientiousness. Trusted adults in childhood, early police encounters, mental health, and adverse experiences also mattered.

Roland Fryer Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Roland Fryer reports on his research that found educational attainment, followed by traits like resilience, self-esteem and conscientiousness were the strongest predictors of intergenerational mobility in the US.

What best predicts escaping childhood poverty?

Core argument: Researchers recruited 1,000 adults in Memphis, Tulsa and New Orleans—cities with higher-than-average poverty rates—who self-identified as having grown up poor; by their 40s some had exited poverty but most had not.

Our work complemented Mr. Chetty’s. His was wide: data on an astonishing number of Americans, but with limited information about each person. Ours was deep: data on a much smaller group of Americans, but with detailed information about each person. From Memphis, Tulsa and New Orleans—cities with higher-than-average poverty rates—we recruited 1,000 adults who self-identified as having grown up poor. By the time we met them in their 40s, some had exited poverty, but most hadn’t. Each took part in a three-hour interview about childhood health, parental income, home environment, lifetime traumas, neighborhood safety, psychological skills, beliefs and current income. The goal was to understand which childhood experiences were most correlated with mobility. We found that human capital was the strongest predictor of mobility. The second most important predictor was noncognitive skills—traits like resilience, self-esteem and conscientiousness. Other factors also mattered: the number of trusted adults in one’s childhood, early encounters with police, mental health and adverse experiences.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Researchers recruited 1,000 adults in Memphis, Tulsa and New Orleans—cities with higher-than-average poverty rates—who self-identified as having grown up poor; by their 40s some had exited poverty but most had not.
  2. Human capital was the strongest predictor of income mobility in the study, followed by noncognitive skills such as resilience, self-esteem and conscientiousness.
  3. Three-hour interviews covering childhood health, parental income, home environment, trauma and neighborhood safety also identified the number of trusted adults in childhood, early encounters with police, mental health and adverse experiences as factors in mobility.

Related Articles:

  • Getting Beneath the Veil of Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Three Cities — Using a new descriptive statistical method, the authors find that education is the strongest correlate of intergenerational income mobility, with resilience a statistically indistinguishable close second. Half of the significant correlates are psychological skills, including self-esteem, self-control, locus of control, and grit, alongside mental health problems, youth trouble with police, adverse childhood experiences, and trusted adult relationships.
  • Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility — Across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, adult household incomes fell for white children raised in low-income families and rose for those raised in high-income families, increasing the intergenerational persistence of income ranks among white children by 28%. Over the same cohorts, adult incomes rose for Black children at all parental income levels.
  • ZIP Code Is Destiny? Turns Out That’s Bunk — The authors argue that research crediting neighborhoods with causing better child outcomes confuses causation with parental self-sorting, since more affluent, better-educated, and more stable families tend to move to good neighborhoods before their children are born. Their analysis of Danish population data found the same sorting pattern as in the United States.

AI Summary. Using a new descriptive statistical method, the authors find that education is the strongest correlate of intergenerational income mobility, with resilience a statistically indistinguishable close second. Half of the significant correlates are psychological skills, including self-esteem, self-control, locus of control, and grit, alongside mental health problems, youth trouble with police, adverse childhood experiences, and trusted adult relationships.

Oren Danieli, Tanaya Devi and Roland Fryer Tel Aviv University
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

A data-driven method to select cost-effective policy interventions, applied to survey responses of ~1,000 people reared in poverty in 3 US cities, confirms the primacy of education, but finds an ~= role for childhood determinants of noncognitive skills.

What factors correlate most strongly with intergenerational income mobility?

Core argument: Using non-parametric estimation, the authors find education is the most important correlate of intergenerational income mobility, with resilience — the ability to bounce back from stressful situations — a close and statistically indistinguishable second.

We develop a new descriptive statistical method to assist the design of future experiments, whose goal is to improve some outcome variable. Most descriptive methods ignore the potential difficulty of changing the covariates in an intervention. Our method uses information from the joint distribution of the covariates, and instead of recommending experiments that would extrapolate into cases rarely seen in the data, it focuses on the way in which the outcome variable (in our case, escaping poverty) is higher in real life. Panel A in Figure 3 shows, using non-parametric estimation methods, that the most important correlate of income mobility is education. A close second– and statistically indistinguishable– is resilience: the ability to bounce back from stressful situations,measured by responses to questions such as “It does not take me long to recover from a stressful event.” Half of the significant correlates of intergenerational income mobility are psychological skills: resilience, Big 5 [personality traits from psychological test], self-esteem, self control, locus of control and grit. Mental health problems are also significant in this specification, [as are] whether the respondent was ever in trouble with the police in their youth, had adverse childhood experiences, and the existence of adult relationships they trusted.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Using non-parametric estimation, the authors find education is the most important correlate of intergenerational income mobility, with resilience — the ability to bounce back from stressful situations — a close and statistically indistinguishable second.
  2. Half of the significant correlates of intergenerational income mobility are psychological skills: resilience, the Big 5 personality traits, self-esteem, self-control, locus of control, and grit.
  3. Mental health problems, youth trouble with the police, adverse childhood experiences, and the existence of trusted adult relationships are also significant in the authors' specification.

Related Articles:

  • The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated — Using an alternative cost-of-living adjustment, the typical 40-year-old's pre-tax family income rose 52% between 1979 and 2019, or 73% adjusting for family size, versus 15% under the methods behind widely cited mobility estimates. Absolute mobility is down 20 percentage points since 1979 but stood at 72% in 2023.
  • The Misguided War On The SAT — The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a nationwide test of elementary and middle school students with no test-prep industry around it, shows racial and economic gaps closely resembling those on the SAT and ACT. Researchers argue this indicates college admissions tests measure underlying learning, making score disparities a symptom rather than a cause of inequality.
  • Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility — Across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, adult household incomes fell for white children raised in low-income families and rose for those raised in high-income families, increasing the intergenerational persistence of income ranks among white children by 28%. Over the same cohorts, adult incomes rose for Black children at all parental income levels.

AI Summary. Secular identity has plateaued among young men while continuing to rise among young women, with 43% of young women now religiously unaffiliated versus 33% a decade earlier and almost no change among young men. The share of young women calling religion personally important fell from 82% to 57%, a steeper decline than among young men.

Daniel Cox American Storylines
Date Posted:

Historically, American women have had higher levels of religiosity than men. Between 2014 and 2024, however, the share of women 18–24 who identify as religiously unaffiliated rose 10pp to 43%, ~on par with their male peers’ 41%.

Is secularization still rising among young women but not young men?

Core argument: The share of young women identifying as religiously unaffiliated rose from 33% in 2014 to 43% in 2024, while young men showed almost no change over the same period.

While secular identity has plateaued among young men, it continues to rise among young women. From 2014 to 2024, young women became far less religious: 43% identify as religiously unaffiliated today compared to 33% a decade earlier. Young men showed almost no change over the same time period. Young women show a pronounced decline in the importance of religion in their lives. In 2007, 82% of young women said religion was somewhat or very important to them personally. That dropped to 57% by 2024 (a 25-point decline). Young men have experienced a dramatic decline as well, but not quite as steep. It’s difficult to see how America can experience a religious revival without the participation of young women.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of young women identifying as religiously unaffiliated rose from 33% in 2014 to 43% in 2024, while young men showed almost no change over the same period.
  2. The share of young women saying religion was somewhat or very important to them personally fell from 82% in 2007 to 57% in 2024, a 25-point decline; young men declined dramatically but less steeply.
  3. Secular identity has plateaued among young men while continuing to rise among young women, and it is difficult to see how America can experience a religious revival without the participation of young women.

Related Articles:

  • Decline of Christianity in the U.S. Has Slowed, May Have Leveled Off — Survey data show 62% of U.S. adults identify as Christian, a 16-point decline from earlier readings, with Protestants at 40% and Catholics at 19%. Religiously unaffiliated adults — atheists, agnostics, and those saying "nothing in particular" — account for 29% of the population.
  • Is America’s Religious Decline Responsible for Falling Birthrates? — In the United States, falling birth rates have accompanied a decline in religious participation, with the share of Americans attending worship services weekly falling from 42% to 30% over 20 years, according to Gallup. Survey data show 68% of Americans in their mid-70s or older attended weekly services in childhood, versus 48% of those in their early 20s.
  • Most U.S. Parents Pass Along Their Religion and Politics to Their Children — Survey data show most U.S. teens share their parents' politics and religion: 81% of Republican or Republican-leaning parents had teens identifying the same way, as did 89% of Democratic or Democratic-leaning parents. Similar alignment held for religion, with 82% of Protestant parents, 81% of Catholic parents, and 86% of religiously unaffiliated parents having teens who identified likewise.

AI Summary. Chinese state television is airing a prime-time historical drama that portrays Communist Party agents in Taiwan after 1949 as martyrs for "unification," part of domestic messaging around Taiwan reunification. People briefed on the matter say state-owned drama troupes are receiving approval only for war-themed plays, with other genres rejected.

Lingling Wei Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Chinese state television is broadcasting a new historical drama promoting “unification” of China and Taiwan, and “state-owned drama troupes are receiving approval only for war-themed plays…while other genres are being rejected.”

Is China using state media to prepare citizens for Taiwan pressure?

Core argument: China's state television is filling its prime-time slot with "The Silent Honor," a historical drama lionizing Communist Party agents who operated in Taiwan after the Nationalists fled there in 1949, framing their espionage and execution as martyrdom for "unification.".

Mao Zedong once said that China must wield both the pen and the gun against its adversaries. With its so-called pen, China’s state television is preparing the domestic Chinese population for a new phase of pressure against Taiwan. Its prime-time slot is filled with a new historical drama, “The Silent Honor,” which lionizes Communist Party agents operating in Taiwan after the Nationalists fled to the island in 1949 following their loss of the civil war to Mao’s forces. The series frames the agents’ espionage—and eventual execution—as martyrdom for the cause of “unification.” In a parallel move suggesting a top-down mandate to reorient cultural output toward national struggle, state-owned drama troupes are receiving approval only for war-themed plays, said people briefed on the matter, while other genres are being rejected. This domestic messaging is an intensification of an already amped-up atmosphere of Taiwan reunification rhetoric in China. And it is being matched by the gun.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's state television is filling its prime-time slot with "The Silent Honor," a historical drama lionizing Communist Party agents who operated in Taiwan after the Nationalists fled there in 1949, framing their espionage and execution as martyrdom for "unification.".
  2. State-owned drama troupes are receiving approval only for war-themed plays while other genres are rejected, according to people briefed on the matter, a pattern suggesting a top-down mandate to reorient cultural output toward national struggle.
  3. China's domestic messaging intensifies an already amped-up atmosphere of Taiwan reunification rhetoric, recalling Mao Zedong's dictum that China must wield both the pen and the gun against its adversaries.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Secret Stockpiles Have Been A Great Success—So Far — A data firm estimates China's observable oil stocks reached a record 1.2bn barrels, triple the size of America's reserves, with storage capacity of 2bn barrels only 58% full and traders expecting stockpiling to continue. Analysts also note metal imports have soared even as China's metal-consuming industries have slumped.
  • Xi Jinping’s Purge Of Military Officers Raises Doubts About China’s Readiness For War — The heads of all but one of China's five regional military commands are unaccounted for, under investigation, or fired, and commanders of the navy and ground force have been targeted following those of the rocket force. Heads of several departments under the Central Military Commission have disappeared from public view, and scores of political commissars have been ousted or investigated.
  • Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War — China's leadership has emphasized war readiness, announcing a 7.2% increase in the defense budget—which has doubled over the past decade—and plans to reduce dependence on foreign grain imports. China has also opened National Defense Mobilization recruitment offices across the country, while cities in Fujian Province opposite Taiwan build or upgrade air-raid shelters.