Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Friday, November 14, 2025

AI Summary. Africa's population, now about 1.5bn, is projected to reach 4bn by 2100, with sub-Saharan Africa approaching 3.5bn and Nigeria's working-age population forecast to exceed 320m. Between 2005 and 2020, Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia and other large states averaged only one job created for every two entrants to the working-age population.

Michael Cohen, Nduka Orjinmo, Yvonne Mhango, Tom Fevrier, et al. Bloomberg
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Sub-Saharan Africa’s population, currently ~1.3B, is forecast to reach ~3.5B in 75 years. ~60% of the population is < 25. Worryingly, a Bloomberg analysis finds that between 2005 and 2020, for every two new working-age persons only one job was created.

Can Africa create enough jobs for its rapidly growing working-age population?

Core argument: Africa's population, about 1.5 billion after doubling in three decades, is predicted to reach 4 billion by 2100, with sub-Saharan Africa growing from 1.3 billion to nearly 3.5 billion and Nigeria approaching half a billion.

Africa’s population has doubled in three decades and it’s now home to about 1.5 billion people, a figure that’s predicted to grow to 4 billion by the turn of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to be home to 1.3 billion people, having grown from fewer than 200 million in 1950. The region’s population is predicted to swell to nearly 3.5 billion by the turn of the century, with close to half a billion in Nigeria alone. Nigeria’s working-age population (aged 15–64) is forecast to more than double, reaching over 320 million by 2100. Already about 60% of people south of the Sahara desert are younger than 25, compared with one-third in the US, according to the United Nations. The expected number of annual births in Congo is more than 800,000 greater than across the US or the European Union’s 27 member states. So while the developed world worries about getting old, Africa is getting younger. Most countries on the continent already struggle to provide sufficient jobs. For every two people that joined Congo’s working-age population between 2005 and 2020, only one job was created on average, a pattern repeated across Nigeria, Ethiopia and other large states, according to Bloomberg Economics analysis of International Labor Organisation data.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Africa's population, about 1.5 billion after doubling in three decades, is predicted to reach 4 billion by 2100, with sub-Saharan Africa growing from 1.3 billion to nearly 3.5 billion and Nigeria approaching half a billion.
  2. For every two people who joined Congo's working-age population between 2005 and 2020, only one job was created on average, a pattern repeated across Nigeria, Ethiopia and other large states, according to Bloomberg Economics analysis of International Labour Organisation data.
  3. About 60% of people south of the Sahara are younger than 25, compared with one-third in the US, according to the United Nations, and Nigeria's working-age population aged 15-64 is forecast to more than double to over 320 million by 2100.

Related Articles:

  • Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion — Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to hold a quarter of the world's working-age population within a few decades and to surpass China's working-age population in roughly a decade. Even with modest productivity growth near 2%, the region's growth is estimated at 4.5–5.5%, raising its share of global output from about 3% while remaining small.
  • 21st-Century Africa Governance and Growth — Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita has fallen relative to the world average over three decades, from 30% to 22%, reflecting the region's inability to sustain growth. Had it grown at the global pace since 1990, income per capita would be over 40% higher; at emerging East Asia's pace, nearly 3x higher.
  • Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory — Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.

AI Summary. The share of young adults who are neither in education, employed, seeking work, nor caring for children is rising in many countries, among both young men and young women. Including stay-at-home parents in the standard "not in education, employment or training" measure obscures this increase.

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
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About 10% of Americans aged 20–24 are not working or seeking work, nor are they in school or raising children, about twice the fraction during the 1990s. This group spends seven hours per day alone, up from five a decade ago.

Are more young adults disengaged from work, school, and parenting?

Core argument: The share of young adults who are neither in education, working, seeking work, nor parenting is rising in many countries, among young men and young women alike.

People’s early interactions with the labour market are so critically important for shaping their futures that in the 1990s British researchers came up with the acronym “NEET” — standing for young people who are Not in Education, Employment or Training — to capture the group of adolescents and twenty-somethings struggling to make the transition from compulsory schooling to the world of skills and work. As originally defined, NEETs include young mothers (or in very rare cases fathers) whose reason for not being in work or education is that they’re at home looking after their children. Counting young stay-at-home parents as part of a problem group of the economically disengaged and disadvantaged always felt like an odd fit (albeit defensible). But the inclusion of the shrinking pool of full-time parents is now actively obscuring the fact that the group we are most concerned about — young adults who are neither in education, working or seeking work, or parenting — is marching upwards in many countries, not only for young men but women too.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of young adults who are neither in education, working, seeking work, nor parenting is rising in many countries, among young men and young women alike.
  2. British researchers coined "NEET" in the 1990s — Not in Education, Employment or Training — to capture adolescents and twenty-somethings struggling to move from compulsory schooling into skills and work.
  3. Counting young stay-at-home parents within the NEET measure obscures the rise in young adults who are neither studying, working, seeking work, nor parenting, as the pool of full-time young parents shrinks.

Related Articles:

  • Changes in Milestones of Adulthood — Among US young adults aged 25–34, the share completing a high school or college degree rose 9 percentage points to 83%, while the share ever married fell 18 points to 44% and the share living with a child fell 16 points to 39%. Economic milestones became more common as family formation milestones became less common.
  • All Over The Rich World, Fewer People Are Hooking Up And Shacking Up — In the US, 41% of women and 50% of men aged 25-34 were single, double the share of five decades earlier, and the share of people living alone rose in 26 of 30 mostly rich OECD countries. One estimate puts the global increase in single people at over 100m in a decade.
  • Marriage, Cohabitation, and Separation: A Dynamic Approach to the Second Demographic Transition — Four decades of U.S. monthly demographic data show marriage has declined while cohabitation has risen, both union types have become more stable, and remaining single has become more common, alongside a substantial fertility decline. A matching model estimates that rising match-formation costs outpaced gains from partnering, reducing partnership formation.

AI Summary. China's central bank has officially reported buying just 25 tonnes of gold this year, but Société Générale estimates from UK export and trade data that actual purchases could reach 250 tonnes, more than a third of global central bank demand. Buying also occurs through China's sovereign wealth fund and military, which need not disclose holdings promptly.

Leslie Hook Financial Times
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Official gold purchases by China’s central bank are so low that “few in the market believe the official figures.” Société Générale estimates that China’s total purchases of gold this year could be 250 tonnes or 1/3 of global central bank demand.

Is China buying far more gold than it officially reports?

Core argument: Société Générale analysts estimate, using trade data including UK gold exports, that China's purchases could reach 250 tonnes this year — more than a third of global central bank demand — versus the 25 tonnes officially reported.

Publicly reported buying by China’s central bank has been so low this year that few in the market believe the official figures. Analysts at Société Générale estimate, based on trade data, that China’s total purchases could reach as much as 250 tonnes this year, or more than a third of total global central bank demand. Its official gold-buying programme, which is managed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), part of the People’s Bank of China, has officially bought just 25 tonnes so far this year. Reserve gold is typically stored either in Shanghai or in Beijing. Safe has one-year and five-year targets for its purchases of gold, and current holdings remain far below target, according to a former Safe official. The purchases are made not only by Safe and its intermediaries, but also by China’s sovereign wealth fund CIC and the military, which are not mandated to disclose their holdings on a timely basis. One proxy for Beijing’s official buying is to look at UK gold exports to China, because the large bars favoured by central banks are mainly traded in London. Using this method, Société Générale estimates that Safe will import about 250 tonnes this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Société Générale analysts estimate, using trade data including UK gold exports, that China's purchases could reach 250 tonnes this year — more than a third of global central bank demand — versus the 25 tonnes officially reported.
  2. China's official gold buying is managed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange within the People's Bank of China, but purchases are also made by sovereign wealth fund CIC and the military, which need not disclose holdings on a timely basis.
  3. A former Safe official says the agency holds one-year and five-year gold purchase targets and that current holdings remain far below target, with reserve gold typically stored in Shanghai or Beijing.

Related Articles:

  • State of Chinese Gold Demand — Gold broke above its $3,200–$3,400 range to a record high above $3,600, with the near-term catalyst identified as threats to Federal Reserve independence driving US investor demand. Chinese total gold demand bottomed near $9bn and nearly doubled to $16bn before moderating to about $13bn as private-sector buying partially normalized.
  • De-Dollarization? Diversification? Exploring Central Bank Gold Purchases and the Dollar’s Role in International Reserves — Central banks' gold accumulation is generally not associated with reducing the dollar's share of international reserves at the country level, apart from a few prominent cases, and is more consistent with modest overall diversification. Gold's role as an official-sector store of value has grown, but its use as a unit of account and medium of exchange remains limited.
  • Across The Rich World, Fiscal Crises Loom — An analysis estimates most rich countries could keep debt stable as a share of their economies with only small primary surpluses—Britain's required surplus is 0.3% of GDP—even if all debt were refinanced immediately at current rates, but the tightening needed to stabilize debt ratios exceeds 2% of GDP in Britain and America and 3% in France.

AI Summary. Markets are front-running what they see as inevitable debt monetization and fleeing into safe-haven assets, a "debasement trade" reflected in rapidly rising long-term government bond yields and a rally in precious metals. This reflects a broad loss of confidence in fiat currencies rather than a flight from the dollar alone.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
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Noting that the end of the US government shutdown “has seen a resumption of the precious metals rally” with “gold and silver back to near their October highs,” Brooks concludes that “appetite for safe havens is much stronger than I would have thought.”

Do rising yields and metals signal lost confidence in fiat currencies?

Core argument: Brooks argues a "debasement trade" is underway, in which markets front-run what they see as inevitable debt monetization and flee into safe haven assets, which he says explains the rapid rise in longer-term government bond yields in many places.

[Brooks argues that the] “debasement trade,” [defined as “the idea that markets have begun front-running what they see as inevitable debt monetization and are fleeing into safe haven assets”] [is underway]. This is why yields on longer-term government bonds have been rising so rapidly in many places. Markets are [also] hunting for safe haven assets, which is what the crazy rally in precious metals is about. Markets are constantly testing if other things might be good safe havens. Low-debt countries like Sweden and Switzerland are definitely in vogue. The debasement trade isn’t about a flight out of the Dollar. It’s about a much broader loss of confidence in fiat currencies. Appetite for safe havens is much stronger than I would have thought. The end of the US government shutdown has seen a resumption of the precious metals rally, which is counterintuitive. After all, the end of the shutdown reduces recession odds and pushes up real rates, which are things that should weaken demand for gold and silver. Markets are treating good news as bad news. The end of the US government shutdown has taken gold (black) and silver (purple) back to near their October highs. [Editors note: research shows that short-run movements in gold and similar asset prices remain largely unexplained.]

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Brooks argues a "debasement trade" is underway, in which markets front-run what they see as inevitable debt monetization and flee into safe haven assets, which he says explains the rapid rise in longer-term government bond yields in many places.
  2. Brooks characterizes the debasement trade as a broad loss of confidence in fiat currencies rather than a flight out of the Dollar, with markets favoring low-debt countries such as Sweden and Switzerland.
  3. Brooks calls it counterintuitive that the end of the US government shutdown has taken gold and silver back near their October highs, since reduced recession odds and higher real rates should weaken demand for precious metals.

Related Articles:

  • Across The Rich World, Fiscal Crises Loom — An analysis estimates most rich countries could keep debt stable as a share of their economies with only small primary surpluses—Britain's required surplus is 0.3% of GDP—even if all debt were refinanced immediately at current rates, but the tightening needed to stabilize debt ratios exceeds 2% of GDP in Britain and America and 3% in France.
  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.
  • Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! — Interest rates are ultimately driven by macroeconomic fundamentals, with an "intrinsic risk-free rate" defined as the sum of the inflation rate and real GDP growth tracking the observed 10-year Treasury bond yield closely. On this view, central banks' influence comes from preferential access to data on those fundamentals, their capacity to alter them, and their credibility.

AI Summary. The U.S. announced joint statements with four Latin American countries under which it would reduce tariffs on a range of goods not produced domestically, including bananas and coffee from Ecuador and beef from Argentina. Officials said no government-sponsored beef shipments are planned, but tariff cuts on beef are expected.

Gavin Bade Wall Street Journal
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The White House is planning to cut tariffs on goods from Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador and Guatemala that are not produced domestically, such as coffee and bananas, as well as tariffs on Argentinian beef.

Will the US cut tariffs on goods it doesn't produce domestically?

Core argument: The U.S. released joint statements with four Latin American countries pledging to reduce tariffs on a variety of goods not produced domestically, including bananas and coffee from Ecuador and beef from Argentina.

The administration released joint statements with the four Latin American countries, saying that the U.S. would reduce tariffs on a variety of goods not produced domestically. A senior administration official told reporters those products would include bananas and coffee from Ecuador, along with beef from Argentina. Trump has said in recent weeks that he would consider boosting beef imports from Argentina in an effort to relieve rising prices for American consumers, sparking backlash from ranchers and farm-state lawmakers in Congress. The senior official said that Trump’s team isn’t planning for government-sponsored shipments of beef from the nation to the U.S., but that officials expect to reduce tariffs on the product in the weeks to come.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The U.S. released joint statements with four Latin American countries pledging to reduce tariffs on a variety of goods not produced domestically, including bananas and coffee from Ecuador and beef from Argentina.
  2. Trump has said he would consider boosting beef imports from Argentina to relieve rising prices for American consumers, drawing backlash from ranchers and farm-state lawmakers in Congress.
  3. A senior administration official said Trump's team isn't planning government-sponsored beef shipments from Argentina to the U.S., but that officials expect to reduce tariffs on the product in the weeks to come.

Related Articles:

  • Who Pays Trump’s Tariffs? — Amalgamated estimates from Goldman Sachs, the Yale Budget Lab and Allianz Trade indicate U.S. importers initially absorbed 64% of U.S. tariff costs, with 14% borne by foreign exporters and 22% passed to consumers. The estimates project the consumer share rising to about 67%, leaving the price level 1–1.5 percentage points higher than without the tariffs.
  • Tariffs Are Generating Meaningful New Revenue — New U.S. tariffs are estimated to generate $1.3tn in net new revenue through the end of the current presidential term and $2.8tn through 2034 before economic effects, about $600bn more than previously enacted tariffs. If a court ruling striking down some tariffs is upheld, the remainder could raise as little as $800bn through 2034.
  • Trump’s Tariffs Are a Massive Money Grab. That’s Why They Are in Trouble — The US administration's own budget office estimates the tariffs amount to $3.9tn over a decade, the largest tax increase since 1982. Though the Supreme Court tends to read presidential authority over foreign policy broadly, allowing any president to impose such a tax without input from Congress may exceed its limits.

AI Summary. The heads of all but one of China's five regional military commands are unaccounted for, under investigation, or fired, and commanders of the navy and ground force have been targeted following those of the rocket force. Heads of several departments under the Central Military Commission have disappeared from public view, and scores of political commissars have been ousted or investigated.

Kathrin Hille Financial Times
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A senior Taiwanese official notes that the large-scale promotion of younger PLA officers may lead to a “less risk-averse, more nationalistic and more aggressive” PLA officer corps, though the ongoing purge may impact military readiness in the short term.

Do sweeping removals of senior commanders weaken China's military readiness?

Core argument: The heads of four of the People's Liberation Army's five regional commands are unaccounted for, under investigation, or have been fired.

The heads of all but one of the PLA’s five regional commands are currently unaccounted for, are under investigation or have been fired. The navy and the ground force have followed the rocket force in having their commanders targeted. The heads of several specialised departments under the Central Military Commission, the top command organ led by Xi, have disappeared from public view. And scores of political commissars have been ousted or are under some form of party investigation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The heads of four of the People's Liberation Army's five regional commands are unaccounted for, under investigation, or have been fired.
  2. Commanders of the PLA navy and ground force have been targeted following the rocket force, and the heads of several specialised departments under the Central Military Commission, led by Xi Jinping, have disappeared from public view.
  3. Scores of PLA political commissars have been ousted or placed under some form of party investigation.

Related Articles:

  • China Sees Lowest Attendance at Plenum Since Cultural Revolution — A tally by Bloomberg News found only 168 of the 205 members of China's Communist Party Central Committee attended the party's fourth plenum, the lowest attendance rate since the Cultural Revolution, with 42 officials including alternate members absent without explanation. The tally suggests the anti-corruption purges are wider than publicly known.
  • The Sinister Disappearance Of China’s Bosses — China's liuzhi detention system operates alongside normal policing, requiring no court approval and denying detainees lawyers, with windowless cells, constant lighting and round-the-clock supervision. Stock-exchange filings show 39 executives at listed companies disappearing into the system by the end of September, exceeding the prior year's record.
  • Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War — China's leadership has emphasized war readiness, announcing a 7.2% increase in the defense budget—which has doubled over the past decade—and plans to reduce dependence on foreign grain imports. China has also opened National Defense Mobilization recruitment offices across the country, while cities in Fujian Province opposite Taiwan build or upgrade air-raid shelters.

Monday, November 17, 2025

AI Summary. China leads in adding power to the grid, with more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines versus zero in the US and lead times for large transformers of 48 weeks against a US average of 143 weeks. This positions China to accommodate new demand sources such as artificial intelligence.

Karen Karniol-Tambour, Ian Singer, Daniel Hochman and Jeremy Ng Bridgewater Associates
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China’s annual generation of electrical power is 2.5x that of the US. China is self-sufficient in electricity via coal and renewables, whereas the US is self-sufficient in terms of oil and gas but faces capacity constraints in generating electricity.

Is China better positioned than the US to power AI demand?

Core argument: China operates more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines, which carry higher capacity at greater efficiency than traditional transmission, while the United States has zero.

China is a leader in scaling up and deploying power to the grid. China has invested massively in grid infrastructure to accommodate the increase in renewables generation capacity and is far more efficient on permitting and local regulations. China has more than 30,000 miles of UHV transmission lines that have much higher capacity and efficiency than traditional transmission; the US currently has zero. Large transformers, which are necessary for transmitting power between generation and end users, are available with a lead time of 48 weeks in China, about one-third the US average of 143 weeks. This has allowed China to build out its generation capacity to meet rising power needs, which have grown rapidly over the past few decades as a result of industrialization and electrification. And it has done so far more quickly than other regions like the United States, which puts it in a strong position to accommodate new sources of demand like AI.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China operates more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines, which carry higher capacity at greater efficiency than traditional transmission, while the United States has zero.
  2. Large transformers, needed to move power from generation to end users, carry a 48-week lead time in China, about one-third the US average of 143 weeks.
  3. China's grid investment and more efficient permitting and local regulation have let it expand generation capacity to meet demand from industrialization and electrification faster than the United States, putting it in a strong position to accommodate new demand such as AI.

Related Articles:

  • World Energy Outlook 2025 — Global electricity demand is projected to rise roughly 40–50% by 2035, even though electricity currently accounts for only 21% of total final energy consumption worldwide. Electricity use by servers optimized for artificial intelligence is projected to rise fivefold by 2030, yet data centres are projected to account for less than 10% of global electricity demand growth through 2030.
  • Heliocentrism — An energy use must be electrified before green grid electricity can decarbonize it, and while US grid decarbonization continues at a steady pace, the electricity share of final US energy consumption has grown little. Transmission line growth runs well below Department of Energy targets for 2030 and 2035, and transformer delivery times have stretched from 4–6 weeks to 2–3 years.
  • Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil — Average annual electricity load growth reached 3% and is projected to continue at that rate for five years, with utilities raising expected peak demand for 2029 by 12%, or 101 gigawatts, driven by data centers, new factories, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and hydrogen production.

AI Summary. Using survey data for 34 OECD countries, the authors estimate that higher real income per capita, social spending, decentralization, and economic freedom raise trust in government, while inflation, unemployment, debt per capita, human capital, and a larger elderly population share lower it. Their estimates place a heavier weight on inflation than unemployment.

Michael Boskin, Alexander Kleiner and Ian Whiton National Bureau of Economic Research
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A Pew study finds that only 15% of Americans trust the Federal government to do what is right “most of the time,” down from ~75% in 1960. A secular drop occurred during the Johnson and Nixon years; economic fluctuations account for cyclical variation.

What economic factors raise and lower public trust in government?

Core argument: A 2024 Pew survey found fewer than one-in-six Americans trust Washington to do what is right, with 1% saying "just about always" and 15% "most of the time," amid an overall decline in trust since the 1960s.

A survey conducted by Pew in the United States in 2024 found that fewer than one-in-six Americans express trust in Washington to do what is right ”just about always” (1%) or ”most of the time” (15%). Figure 2 depicts the trust that Americans have had in their government since the 1960s. Trust has experienced a significant overall decline since that period, with ups and downs that roughly coincide with periods of economic booms and busts. Using consistent survey data for 34 OECD countries from 2007-2023, we estimate a model of factors determining levels of trust. We employ a series of econometric techniques of increasing sophistication. The level and growth rate of real income per capita, social spending per capita, the degree of decentralization, and economic freedom all exert positive effects on trust. Inflation, unemployment, and debt per capita negatively affect trust. Additionally, higher levels of human capital and the elderly share of the population negatively affect trust. In the context of trust in government, the estimates suggest a heavier weight on inflation than on unemployment when compared to Okun’s misery index, which weights them equally.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A 2024 Pew survey found fewer than one-in-six Americans trust Washington to do what is right, with 1% saying "just about always" and 15% "most of the time," amid an overall decline in trust since the 1960s.
  2. Using consistent survey data for 34 OECD countries over 2007–2023, the authors estimate that the level and growth rate of real income per capita, social spending per capita, decentralization, and economic freedom all exert positive effects on trust in government.
  3. The authors estimate that inflation, unemployment, and debt per capita reduce trust in government, with the estimates suggesting a heavier weight on inflation than on unemployment, unlike Okun's misery index, which weights the two equally.

Related Articles:

  • Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of U.S. Political Divides — Zero-sum thinking — viewing gains for one group as losses for another — is associated with greater support for liberal economic policies, stronger alignment with the Democratic Party, and weaker alignment with the Republican Party. The authors also find it linked to believing the QAnon conspiracy theory holds some truth and to sympathy for the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
  • Life Under Two: Debt, Deficits, and the AI Discontinuity — The United States averaged annual GDP growth above 3% for decades, but 2% or less is now more likely. Over ten years, the author estimates that gap amounts to a $3.36tn larger economy, $3.7tn more tax revenue, and 6m more jobs, shifting public psychology from abundance toward scarcity.
  • Public Trust in Government: 1958-2023

AI Summary. The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.

Matthew Cancian and Michael Klein National Bureau of Economic Research
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A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of the applicant pool due to increased college participation. Affirmative action played no role.

Has expanded college attendance lowered military officer test scores?

Core argument: Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores declined steadily since 1980, and the coefficient on college participation is negative and significant at better than the 99 percent level, explaining 96 percent of the actual percentage change in GCT scores.

This paper analyzed the intelligence of the officers of the Marine Corps, and found a relevant and steady decline in intelligence, as measured by General Classification Test (GCT) scores, since 1980. This decline was closely associated with an expansion of the pool of young college graduates during the same time period, which potentially diminished the overall intellectual quality of that pool. If the pool of those wanting to become Marine officers is representative of the pool of college attendees, and if there is a positive, monotonic relationship between intelligence and GCT scores, then the expansion of the pool of college students will be associated with lower average GCT scores. The coefficient [of GCT scores] on college participation is negative and significant at better than the 99 percent level, and explains 96% of the actual percentage change in the GCT over this period. Our results also support those who argue that affirmative action has not had a negative impact on the quality of the officer corps. We find, in fact, a positive association between African American officers and mean GCT score, perhaps because recruitment efforts by the Marine Corps have attracted minority officers who are more qualified than the typical college graduate.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores declined steadily since 1980, and the coefficient on college participation is negative and significant at better than the 99 percent level, explaining 96 percent of the actual percentage change in GCT scores.
  2. The authors associate the decline in Marine officer GCT scores with an expansion of the pool of young college graduates over the same period, which potentially diminished that pool's overall intellectual quality.
  3. The authors find a positive association between African American officers and mean GCT score, supporting those who argue affirmative action has not harmed officer corps quality, perhaps because Marine Corps recruitment attracted minority officers more qualified than the typical college graduate.

Related Articles:

  • The Extreme Shortage of High IQ Workers — Semiconductor manufacturing requires workers of above-average intelligence, with the most demanding roles needing IQs in the top 1 in 1,000 — a pool of about 164,000 people in the US, of whom perhaps 100,000 can be placed in such professions. The author argues this scarcity explains reliance on high-IQ workers abroad and on smarter tools and non-human intelligence.
  • Boeing Battles Brain Drain As Engineers Chase the Allure of Space — The average tenure of a Boeing engineer has fallen from 16.4 years to 12.6 years, according to data from the union representing 12,000 Boeing engineers, with tenure shortening in almost every age bracket. Analysts, recruiters and union officials describe this "brain drain" as a drag on operations that could make launching a new plane harder.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.

AI Summary. The most credible estimates suggest 5–15% of the US population participates in gig work—defined as income-generating work outside standard, long-term, direct-hire employment—with roughly 2–4% doing platform-based gig work such as ridesharing. Data from an earnings-comparison app show delivery gig workers earn about two-thirds of comparable traditional-employer pay, while rideshare gig workers earn almost as much.

Jessica Rindels Goldman Sachs
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A GS analysis suggests 5–15% of the American population engages in “gig work,” but only 2–4% of the population participates in platform-based gig work like Uber. Overall, platform gig workers work 14 hours a week and earn ~$18 an hour.

How many Americans do gig work, and what do they earn?

Core argument: The most credible estimates suggest 5–15% of the US population participates in gig work, defined as income-generating work outside standard, long-term, direct-hire employment, while platform-based gig work such as Uber accounts for roughly 2–4%.

Estimates of employment in the gig economy are wide-ranging, but the ones we view as most credible suggest that between 5-15% of the US population participates in gig work, broadly defined as any income-generating work outside of standard, long-term, direct-hire employment. Estimates of participation in platform-based gig work such as Uber are lower at roughly 2-4% of the population. Unique data from Gridwise, an app that allows platform gig workers to compare potential earnings across services, shows that earnings per hour for platform-based gig work is not far below that of comparable standard jobs, though the comparison might be imperfect if gig workers are more likely to require their own vehicle. Exhibit 3 compares average hourly earnings for gig work apps to official average hourly earnings for comparable jobs under a standard work arrangement as reported in the establishment survey. While delivery-based gig workers earn around two-thirds as much as they would through doing local deliveries for a traditional employer, rideshare gig workers earn almost as much as they would if they were employed as a driver for a traditional employer. Across all the gig apps, gig workers tend to earn about half as much as the economywide average hourly earnings.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The most credible estimates suggest 5–15% of the US population participates in gig work, defined as income-generating work outside standard, long-term, direct-hire employment, while platform-based gig work such as Uber accounts for roughly 2–4%.
  2. Data from Gridwise, an app letting platform gig workers compare earnings across services, show hourly earnings for platform gig work are not far below comparable standard jobs, though the comparison may be imperfect if gig workers more often require their own vehicle.
  3. Delivery-based gig workers earn about two-thirds as much as local delivery workers for traditional employers, rideshare gig workers earn almost as much as traditionally employed drivers, and gig workers overall earn about half the economywide average hourly earnings.

Related Articles:

  • Driving the Gig Economy — Administrative tax data show that entrants to the taxi and limousine services industry after online ridesharing platforms appeared were more likely to be young, female, White, and U.S.-born, and to combine driving income with wage and salary jobs. Average net earnings of entrants fell to $2,110, consistent with driving being used to supplement income.
  • Consumer Morsel: The Gig Is Up – In A Good Way — Bank of America internal data show the share of its customers receiving income from gig platforms reached 3.8% on a three-month moving average, above the prior peak, after stalling and then resuming an uptrend. Ridesharing has driven the increase and is now the largest gig category, while social commerce and delivery shares have moderated.
  • The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market — Freelancers in occupations most exposed to generative AI saw employment and earnings decline, with the authors estimating a 2% drop in jobs and a 5.2% drop in monthly earnings on an online labor platform. Offering high-quality service did not mitigate the effect, and top-rated freelancers appear disproportionately hurt.

AI Summary. U.S. bonds are on track for their strongest annual returns since 2020 as falling interest rates outweighed earlier concerns that heavy government borrowing would strain the Treasury market. A cooling labor market has prompted two Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the 10-year Treasury yield has declined by nearly half a percentage point to about 4.15%.

Krystal Hur and Sam Goldfarb Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Bloomberg’s U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, largely comprised of Treasurys, investment-grade corporate debt, and agencies, has had a total return of ~6.7% since the start of year.

Are falling interest rates outweighing concerns about heavy government borrowing?

Core argument: The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by nearly half a percentage point this year, settling Friday at 4.147%, with bonds heading for their best year since 2020.

At times earlier this year, brief but sharp selloffs in U.S. Treasurys sparked alarm that the bond market might finally be buckling under the pressure of outsize U.S. borrowing. Falling rates have largely overwhelmed all of those concerns because bonds issued when rates are high become more valuable when they are expected to decrease. At the start of the year, investors were unsure if the Fed would be able to cut rates given persistent inflation and expectations Trump would pursue expansive fiscal policies. But a cooling labor market has already resulted in two cuts this year, with another reduction still possible. Treasury yields, which fall when bond prices rise, have decreased as a result. The yield on the 10-year note has slid by nearly a half-percentage point this year, settling Friday at 4.147%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by nearly half a percentage point this year, settling Friday at 4.147%, with bonds heading for their best year since 2020.
  2. A cooling labor market has already produced two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with another still possible, after investors began the year unsure whether persistent inflation and expected Trump fiscal expansion would preclude cuts.
  3. Falling rates have largely overwhelmed earlier alarm from brief but sharp Treasury selloffs tied to outsize U.S. borrowing, since bonds issued when rates are high gain value when rates are expected to decline.

Related Articles:

  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.
  • Investors Now See Some Corporate Bonds as Safer Bets Than Government Debt — Average net debt relative to earnings for about 2,500 companies in the MSCI ACWI global stock index improved to 1.74x in the first half of this year from 2.53x a decade earlier, indicating stronger corporate balance sheets. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund projects government debt across major economies will rise annually through 2030 to about 137% of GDP.
  • Bank of America Sees US Bill Supply Boost Curbing 10-Year Yield — Bank of America expects the US Treasury to lean more heavily on short-term bill issuance, lifting bills to about 25% of outstanding debt from about 20%. Its strategists estimate the resulting reduction in longer-dated note and bond supply is equivalent to roughly $1tn of 10-year notes, worth at least 31 basis points of lower yields.

AI Summary. Despite multi-trillion deficits, investors show no sign of concern about US government debt, and the Treasury has supported demand by shifting issuance toward maturities with the strongest buyer interest. Short-term bills now make up 22% of marketable Treasuries, absorbed largely by money market funds whose assets have grown to $7tn.

Joseph Wang Fed Guy Blog
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Purchases of Treasurys in 2025 have been “solid.” Foreign buyers bought a net $375B through July and Treasury’s adjustment of the duration mix by shifting towards bills and maturities in the belly of the curve (~2–10 years) has supported demand.

Why do investors show no concern about growing US government debt?

Core argument: Bill issuance has risen to 22% of marketable Treasuries, absorbed largely by money market funds whose assets have grown to $7 trillion, contributing to a modest rise in bill yields while moderating increases elsewhere on the curve.

The trajectory of fiscal policy towards multi-trillion deficits and the political culture of frequent stimulus should be concerning to the bond market. But investor behavior just does not suggest any concern, and the Treasury has adapted to patch up any weaknesses. This could be inertial bias built up over decades, or maybe the assumption that the authorities would ultimately find ways to stem any rise in yields. Treasury has supported the market by shifting issuance towards points of the curve with greater demand. Bill issuance has risen to 22% of marketable Treasuries. Bills are easily absorbed by the market and have been largely bought by money market funds, whose assets have grown to $7 trillion. This contributed to a modest rise in bill yields but moderated increases in other segments of the curve. Treasury has guided towards more issuance in the belly of the curve and used buybacks to support the long end. Treasury’s past coupon increases have been heavy in the belly, and its current debt model suggests that this practice will continue. That is the segment of the curve with the strongest demand, including from investors such as banks and foreign official accounts. In any case there is no indication of imminent changes to the situation, so it looks like it can continue for the foreseeable future.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Bill issuance has risen to 22% of marketable Treasuries, absorbed largely by money market funds whose assets have grown to $7 trillion, contributing to a modest rise in bill yields while moderating increases elsewhere on the curve.
  2. Treasury has guided towards more issuance in the belly of the curve, where demand is strongest, including from banks and foreign official accounts, and has used buybacks to support the long end.
  3. Multi-trillion deficits and a political culture of frequent stimulus have not produced signs of concern in investor behavior, which may reflect inertial bias built up over decades or an assumption that authorities would stem any rise in yields.

Related Articles:

  • The Race Between Asset Supply and Asset Demand — The authors estimate that demand for assets has outpaced supply by roughly 400% of GDP versus 100%, making rising asset demand the leading contributor to falling interest rates. They project that debt sustainability requires fiscal consolidation exceeding 10% of GDP, though debt could reach 250% of GDP without raising interest rates.
  • JPMorgan Is Worried About Who’s Going to Buy All the Bonds — JPMorgan analysts estimate that the Federal Reserve's Treasury holdings have fallen $180bn as it pursues quantitative tightening, while commercial banks' holdings are down $60bn and foreign official holdings down $50bn. The analysts describe simultaneous negative demand from all three buyer types as rare and say they remain concerned about the lack of structural demand for Treasuries.
  • Fiscal Risk from Rising Bond Yields — US interest rates fell for roughly 40 years before the pandemic, allowing maturing high-coupon debt to be refinanced at lower rates and keeping federal interest expense manageable even as debt rose. Because Congressional Budget Office projections assume the 10-year Treasury yield drifts down to 3.8% from about 4.1%, the author argues its debt-service projections face upside risk.