Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, November 6, 2025

AI Summary. Analysts estimate that Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle will invest about $390bn in capital spending this year, rising to $540bn and then $615bn in the following two years. That $1.55tn three-year total equals 17.2% of all capital spending by American companies in 2021, before the artificial intelligence boom.

Robin Wigglesworth Financial Times
Date Posted:

A Barclays analysis forecasts Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle will invest $390B in capex this year, $540B next year and $615B in 2027.

How large is hyperscaler capital spending relative to all US investment?

Core argument: Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle now indicate combined capital expenditure of about $390bn this year, which Barclays analysts reckon will rise to $540bn in 2026 and $615bn in 2027.

Barclays’ research analysts have totted up the latest capital expenditure numbers that the hyperscalers unveiled in their latest round of earnings. All told, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle now indicate that they will invest about $390bn this year, and based on their guidance analysts reckon that this will grow to $540bn in 2026 and $615bn in 2027. For context, those three years of $1.55tn of capex from just these five companies is the equivalent of 17.2% of ALL capex by American companies across 2021, the last year before the AI boom really started.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle now indicate combined capital expenditure of about $390bn this year, which Barclays analysts reckon will rise to $540bn in 2026 and $615bn in 2027.
  2. The $1.55tn of three-year capex from those five companies equals 17.2% of all capital expenditure by American companies in 2021, the last year before the AI boom really started.

Related Articles:

  • Surviving the AI Capex Boom — Capital spending by the largest US technology companies has risen from 4% to 15% of revenue since 2012, approaching the capital intensity of utilities, with Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet each set to spend 21–35% of revenue. The authors argue this shift toward asset-heavy models is associated with inferior returns.
  • An AI-ncredible All-Clear Signal to Rally Markets — Big Tech raised at least $75bn from investment-grade bonds in a single month to fund AI data centers, with banks syndicating another $38bn in loans, versus an average of $37bn issued per year before the pandemic. Because AI-related capital spending growth exceeded growth in total non-residential fixed investment, spending on everything else declined.
  • How America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing The Rest Of The Economy — About a sixth of America's 2% real GDP growth over the past year came from investment in computer and communications equipment and data centres, and one estimate puts the artificial intelligence boom's total contribution to growth at 40%. Average electricity bills rose 7%, attributed in part to data-centre demand, while housebuilding and non-AI business investment slumped and real consumption flatlined.

AI Summary. OpenAI is seeking backing from banks, private equity, and potentially governments to help guarantee financing for AI chips, arguing such guarantees could lower borrowing costs and raise the amount of debt it can take on. The company expects to spend roughly $600bn on computing power from Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon.

Berber Jin Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

OpenAI’s CFO said the firm is hoping the federal government will “guarantee the financing for chips behind its deals,” citing the increase in the cost of debt finance due to the unknown depreciation rates of AI chips.

Should governments help guarantee financing for AI chip purchases?

Core argument: OpenAI expects to spend roughly $600 billion on computing power from Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon in the next few years while on pace to generate $13 billion in revenue this year, requiring exponential sales growth to make the payments.

As OpenAI ramps up its spending on data center capacity to unheard of levels, the company is hoping the federal government will support its efforts by helping to guarantee the financing for chips behind its deals, [OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar] said. The depreciation rates of AI chips remain uncertain, making it more expensive for companies to raise the debt needed to buy them. “This is where we’re looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even governmental, the ways governments can come to bear,” she said. Any such guarantee “can really drop the cost of the financing but also increase the loan-to-value, so the amount of debt you can take on top of an equity portion.” OpenAI is losing money at a faster pace than almost any other startup in Silicon Valley history, thanks to the upside-down economics of building and selling generative AI. The company expects to spend roughly $600 billion on computing power from Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon in the next few years, meaning that it will have to grow sales exponentially in order to make the payments. Friar said that the ChatGPT maker is on pace to generate $13 billion in revenue this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. OpenAI expects to spend roughly $600 billion on computing power from Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon in the next few years while on pace to generate $13 billion in revenue this year, requiring exponential sales growth to make the payments.
  2. OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said the company is looking to an ecosystem of banks, private equity, and possibly governments to help guarantee chip financing, which she said can lower financing costs and increase the loan-to-value on debt.
  3. Uncertainty over the depreciation rates of AI chips makes it more expensive for companies to raise the debt needed to buy them, and OpenAI is losing money at a faster pace than almost any other startup in Silicon Valley history.

Related Articles:

  • Minsky Moments and AI CapEx — Capital-spending forecasts for the four largest cloud providers rose nearly 50% over the year, and AI data centers are increasingly funded through leveraged and off-balance-sheet structures, including $3.2bn in senior secured notes and a roughly $30bn asset-backed financing. The author argues this marks a speculative-finance phase where borrowers must roll over principal.
  • Meta, xAI Starting Trend for Billions in Off-Balance Sheet Debt — Off-balance-sheet structures such as special purpose vehicles and asset-tied joint ventures are becoming the standard financing route for AI data center deals. Morgan Stanley estimates tech firms will need as much as $800bn from private credit by 2028, with roughly $1.5tn of external financing required across the AI ecosystem.
  • The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack — Data center construction spending has eclipsed office construction, and the specialized power rates most data centers pay fall short of covering the cost of a new natural gas plant, leaving other customers to bear part of the bill. In the PJM grid region, data center demand accounted for 70% of the increase in electricity costs over the past year.

AI Summary. Nvidia's chief executive says China will win the artificial intelligence race with the US, citing energy subsidies that make it cheaper for Chinese technology companies to run domestic alternatives to Nvidia's AI chips. He contrasted that with US state-level AI rules that could produce 50 new regulations.

Madhumita Murgia and Cristina Criddle Financial Times
Date Posted:

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang told the FT, “China is going to win the AI race,” citing lower Chinese electrical costs and less regulation. His efforts to lobby the WH to allow Nvidia to sell its most advanced chips to Beijing have been unsuccessful to this point.

Will energy subsidies and state regulations let China win the AI race?

Core argument: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the FT that "China is going to win the AI race," singling out new state-level AI rules in the US that could result in "50 new regulations.".

[Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang] told the FT: “China is going to win the AI race.” Huang’s remarks come after the Trump administration maintained a ban on California-based Nvidia selling its most advanced chips to Beijing following a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week. Huang singled out new rules on AI by US states that could result in “50 new regulations”. He contrasted that approach with Chinese energy subsidies that made it more affordable for local tech companies to run Chinese alternatives to Nvidia’s AI chips. “Power is free,” he said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the FT that "China is going to win the AI race," singling out new state-level AI rules in the US that could result in "50 new regulations.".
  2. Huang contrasted the US approach with Chinese energy subsidies that make it more affordable for local tech companies to run Chinese alternatives to Nvidia's AI chips, saying "power is free.".
  3. Huang's remarks followed the Trump administration's maintaining of a ban on Nvidia selling its most advanced chips to Beijing, after a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Related Articles:

  • The Geopolitics of AI: Decoding the New Global Operating System — The performance gap between the top American and Chinese AI models narrowed from 9.3% to 1.7%, with Chinese firms relying on cheaper open-source models—DeepSeek prices usage 20-40x below OpenAI's ChatGPT. This price advantage could win adoption in developing countries and build dependency on Chinese AI ecosystems.
  • How A Power Shortage Could Short-Circuit Nvidia’s Rise — Analysts estimate Nvidia will sell roughly 6m Blackwell and 5.5m GB chips over a two-year span, and that if half are installed and run at capacity in America they would add 25GW to power demand. Bernstein projects a US shortfall of 17–62GW by 2030 depending on chip efficiency; Morgan Stanley puts the gap at 45GW by 2028.
  • How Xi Sparked China’s Electricity Revolution — Electricity has risen to 30% of China's final energy use while plateauing near 22% in Europe and the US, supported by a decades-long grid expansion and upgrade program projected to cost as much as $800bn by 2030. Chinese grid investment is forecast to grow about 5% annually through 2030, faster than projected economic growth.

AI Summary. The US administration's own budget office estimates the tariffs amount to $3.9tn over a decade, the largest tax increase since 1982. Though the Supreme Court tends to read presidential authority over foreign policy broadly, allowing any president to impose such a tax without input from Congress may exceed its limits.

Greg Ip Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Observers of the SCOTUS hearing on tariffs imposed under the 1977 IEEPA suggest that at least 6 of the 9 justices are likely to rule against the tariffs. Gorsuch argued Congress’s sole power to “reach into the pockets” of taxpayers is “just different.”

Can a president impose the largest tax increase in decades without Congress?

Core argument: Trump's own budget office estimates his tariffs amount to $3.9 trillion over a decade, the largest tax increase since 1982, imposed without input from Congress.

The conservative-dominated Supreme Court put limits on some of President Joe Biden’s actions, but it hasn’t done so yet for Trump. Philosophically, it tends to see the president’s authority over foreign policy or the executive branch quite broadly. But even for this court, allowing any president to impose the largest tax increase since 1982 ($3.9 trillion over a decade, Trump’s own budget office estimates) without any input from Congress may be a bridge too far. At one point, Justice Neil Gorsuch, illuminating his own thinking, said: “The really key part of the context here…is [that] the constitutional assignment of the taxing power to Congress, the power to reach into the pockets of the American people, is just different and it’s been different since the founding.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Trump's own budget office estimates his tariffs amount to $3.9 trillion over a decade, the largest tax increase since 1982, imposed without input from Congress.
  2. Justice Neil Gorsuch said the constitutional assignment of the taxing power to Congress — the power to reach into the pockets of the American people — is different and has been since the founding.
  3. The conservative-dominated Supreme Court has limited some of Biden's actions but not yet Trump's, while tending philosophically to read presidential authority over foreign policy and the executive branch broadly.

Related Articles:

  • Tariffs Are Generating Meaningful New Revenue — New U.S. tariffs are estimated to generate $1.3tn in net new revenue through the end of the current presidential term and $2.8tn through 2034 before economic effects, about $600bn more than previously enacted tariffs. If a court ruling striking down some tariffs is upheld, the remainder could raise as little as $800bn through 2034.
  • The U.S. Is Tiptoeing Away From Many of Trump’s Signature Tariffs — The US has exempted dozens of products from its reciprocal tariffs and offered to carve out hundreds more, from farm products to airplane parts, for countries that strike trade deals. The administration is simultaneously expanding tariffs grounded in Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, covering metals, autos, heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals and furniture.
  • A Note On Tariffs From The Real World — A large retailer reports that pre-tariff inventory is still being sold, so tariff costs will show up as margin hits later, and that prices must eventually rise roughly 10–15% to cover them. The retailer says its sector's tariff rate went from about 12% to about 33%, and that retailers are holding prices through the holiday season before raising them.

AI Summary. Federal data put New York State's home health and personal care aide workforce at an estimated 623,000, or 171 aides per 1,000 residents aged 65 or older — 153% above the national average and 24% ahead of second-ranked California. Largely financed by Medicaid, the category is the state's largest occupation, with a median wage of $18.26 an hour.

Bill Hammond Empire Center
Date Posted:

As of May 2024, “home health and personal care aides” with a median hourly wage of $18.26, financed mainly by Medicaid, was the largest job category in NY State by a factor of 2.7:1. This workforce was 21% larger than its pre-pandemic level.

How far does one state's home care workforce exceed the national average?

Core argument: New York State counted an estimated 623,000 home health and personal care aides as of May 2024, or 171 aides per 1,000 residents aged 65 or older, 153% above the national average and 24% ahead of second-place California, per BLS.

New York State’s workforce of home health and personal care aides had grown to an estimated 623,000 as of May 2024, according to BLS’s Occupational and Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. That equated to 171 aides per 1,000 residents aged 65 or older, which was 153% higher than the national average and 24% ahead of the No. 2 state, California. Within New York, the category of “home health and personal care aides” – with a median hourly wage of $18.26 – represented 38% of all job growth. Predominantly financed by Medicaid, the state’s safety-net health plan, home health remained the largest job category in the state, outnumbering “retail sales persons” by a ratio of 2.7:1.The BLS data show that New York’s overall health-care workforce was 244,000 jobs or 21% larger than it was in May 2019, the last survey before the pandemic. Over those five years, health care went from 12% to 15% of all occupations. Most of that increase occurred in lower-paid “healthcare support occupations,” which grew by 8% or 62,000 jobs. [Editor's note: This research was released in April 2025]

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. New York State counted an estimated 623,000 home health and personal care aides as of May 2024, or 171 aides per 1,000 residents aged 65 or older, 153% above the national average and 24% ahead of second-place California, per BLS.
  2. Home health and personal care aides, with a median hourly wage of $18.26 and financed predominantly by Medicaid, accounted for 38% of all job growth in New York and outnumbered retail salespersons by 2.7:1.
  3. New York's overall health-care workforce was 244,000 jobs or 21% larger in May 2024 than in May 2019, rising from 12% to 15% of all occupations, with lower-paid healthcare support occupations up 62,000 jobs or 8%.

Related Articles:

  • The Clock Now Ticks on Zohran Mamdani — New York City's share of the nation's millionaires has fallen 30% since 2010 and major banks have expanded in Dallas and Atlanta as finance's share of city employment shrank. The author argues a proposed city tax plan would leave remaining high earners paying 60% of taxes.
  • Mamdani’s Promises Are on a Collision Course With Fiscal Reality — New York State faces a $4.2bn deficit, nearly 4x the prior year's gap, while New York City confronts a $5bn budget hole amplified by federal health care and food stamp cuts. Democratic lawmakers and strategists say the state's governor may have to accept some tax increases, though New York already ranks 50th on the Tax Foundation's State Tax Competitive Index.
  • As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting — New York state's share of US taxpayers reporting over $1m in income fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022, and the Citizens Budget Commission estimates state and city income tax receipts from that group would have been $13bn higher had the share held. Job growth has concentrated in lower-paid health care and social assistance.

AI Summary. Digital video has overtaken traditional TV in the attention of the average US adult, with social video platforms YouTube, TikTok and Instagram estimated at 25% of US daily video screen time. New media venues tend to monetize each hour of content at lower rates, and AI text-to-video tools are lowering barriers for new entrants to create high-quality content.

Michael Cembalest J.P. Morgan
Date Posted:

American adults now spend 4 hours a day watching digital video and < 3 hours watching traditional TV. YouTube, TikTok and Instagram now represent ~25% of US video screen time. AI text-to-video tools are facilitating content creation by new entrants.

How is digital video reshaping the economics of television content?

Core argument: Social video on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram accounts for an estimated 25% of US daily video screen time, and digital video has overtaken traditional TV in the average US adult's attention span.

Digital video has overtaken the traditional TV attention span of the average US adult, and social video alone (YouTube, TikTok and Instagram) now represents an estimated 25% of US daily video screen time. The other challenges: (a) companies like Apple and Amazon appear to view video as a loss leader whose primary value lay in the ability to pull viewers into the company’s broader ecosystem (the original business plan for AppleTV+ called for losses of $15 to $20 billion in the first five years), and (b) new media venues tend to be deflationary [in the sense of lower monetization rates per hour of video, gaming and music]. AI text-to-video tools like Pika, Runway, Stable Diffusion and Sora are making it easier for new entrants to create high-quality content for both digital and TV platforms. In 2024, AI models were first able to match human capabilities on Visual Commonsense Reasoning tasks, and text-to-video models are building on that progress. Video content disruption could happen quickly: in 2023, Hollywood put out ~15,000 hours of TV and film while there were 300 million hours of content uploaded to YouTube. If viewers consider just 0.01% of that YouTube content to be just as interesting as Hollywood fare, that's twice Hollywood's annual content output.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Social video on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram accounts for an estimated 25% of US daily video screen time, and digital video has overtaken traditional TV in the average US adult's attention span.
  2. Hollywood released roughly 15,000 hours of TV and film in 2023 against 300 million hours uploaded to YouTube, so viewers finding just 0.01% of that YouTube content as interesting would double Hollywood's annual output.
  3. AI models first matched human capabilities on Visual Commonsense Reasoning tasks in 2024, and text-to-video tools including Pika, Runway, Stable Diffusion and Sora are making it easier for new entrants to create high-quality content for digital and TV platforms.

Related Articles:

  • Teens Used To Be Happier. What Changed? — The share of US high school seniors describing themselves as "very happy" peaked at 24.8% and remained around 24.4% before falling to 11.4% at its low, recovering only to 12.7%, well below the 17.9% recorded before the pandemic. The decline coincided with smartphones and social media becoming pervasive.
  • What Are TikTok’s New Owners Buying? — More than 116m Americans use TikTok each month, with 18-to-25-year-olds spending nearly an hour a day scrolling or posting videos. Teenagers spend more time on TikTok than on YouTube and Instagram combined.
  • Disconnected: The Growing Class Divide in American Civic Life — 17% of Americans report having no close friends, and survey data show a wide educational gap: 24% of those with a high school education or less have no close friends versus 10% of college graduates. Three decades ago, Americans with less formal education reported social circles at least as large.

Friday, November 7, 2025

AI Summary. An analysis of five industries with major producers in both countries — shipbuilding, integrated steel mills, electric vehicles, solar photovoltaic modules and cement — finds China's manufacturing labor productivity in physical output per worker averaged 2.4x that of the US. Measured in nominal value-added per worker, China's advantage averaged 1.2x.

Weijian Shan Gavekal
Date Posted:

Focusing on 5 manufacturing industries for which physical measures of gross output are available, Weijian Shan finds that Chinese labor productivity (measured as physical units of output per worker) is 2 to 3 times that of the US in 4 of the 5 sectors.

Does China produce more physical output per manufacturing worker than the US?

Core argument: Across shipbuilding, integrated steel mills, electric vehicles, solar photovoltaic modules and cement, China's manufacturing labor productivity in physical output per worker exceeded that of the US by an average of 2.4 times.

I examine five industries with significant producers in both the US and China where physical output measures are available: shipbuilding, integrated steel mills, electric vehicles, solar photovoltaic modules and cement. Except for solar modules where industry-wide data are deemed reliable, labor productivity data was sourced from the annual reports or 10-Ks of publicly listed companies. Electric vehicle data came from Tesla, which operates gigafactories in California and Shanghai, producing identical models. For each industry, labor productivity is measured in terms of both physical output and nominal value-added (without adjusting for price differentials). All calculations were performed for both 2023 and 2024, as labor productivity can vary due to capacity utilization and price fluctuations. In [each of the 5 industries], China’s manufacturing labor productivity in physical output per worker was greater than that of the US by an average of 2.4 times. In nominal value-added terms, China’s advantage narrows to an average of 1.2 times. (Complete data for both years in all industries is in the appendix.)

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Across shipbuilding, integrated steel mills, electric vehicles, solar photovoltaic modules and cement, China's manufacturing labor productivity in physical output per worker exceeded that of the US by an average of 2.4 times.
  2. Measured in nominal value-added per worker without adjusting for price differentials, China's productivity advantage over the US narrows to an average of 1.2 times across the same five industries.
  3. Labor productivity figures for 2023 and 2024 came from annual reports and 10-Ks of publicly listed companies, with Tesla's California and Shanghai gigafactories producing identical models supplying the electric vehicle data and industry-wide data used for solar modules.

Related Articles:

  • What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds — The US imports roughly 40% of the goods it consumes, directly and through imported inputs, with labor-intensive goods like apparel almost entirely imported. The authors argue America's main comparative disadvantage is its cost of production, driven mainly by labor costs, with real estate costs and a strong dollar also contributing.
  • America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1 — Building an identical robotic arm in the US costs about 2.2x more than in China, and US-labeled components still depend heavily on Chinese parts and materials with no scalable alternative. The author argues China is the only country positioned to capture full-scale intelligent robotic automation, which would let it outcompete the US across production.
  • How China Raced Ahead Of The U.S. On Nuclear Power — Data published in Nature show U.S. nuclear construction costs rose steeply after the 1960s while China's fell by half during the 2000s and have since stabilized. China's nuclear companies repeatedly build only a handful of reactor designs, which analysts say streamlines licensing, simplifies supply chains, and is essential for scaling efficiently.

AI Summary. China's exports contracted 1.1% from a year earlier, as a more than 25% drop in shipments to the US outweighed a 3.1% rise in exports to all other countries. Weak imports alongside export strength earlier in the year pushed China's trade surplus to a record $965bn.

Bloomberg Staff Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Chinese exports dropped for the first time since “Liberation Day.” The 1.1% y/y fall was due to a 25% decline in exports to the US. China is still on track for a record trade surplus, hitting $965B so far this year.

Are falling shipments to the US dragging China's exports lower?

Core argument: China's exports fell 1.1% year-on-year in October, the first decline in eight months, as a drop of more than 25% in shipments to the US outweighed a 3.1% rise in shipments to all other nations, according to official data.

China’s exports unexpectedly contracted in October as global demand failed to offset the deepening slump in shipments to the US, dealing a blow to an economy already slowing amid sluggish consumer spending and investment at home. Exports fell for the first time in eight months, dropping 1.1% from a year earlier, according to official data released Friday. Shipments to all nations except the US rose 3.1%, not enough to compensate for the more than 25% decline to America. Yet even with the overall drop in exports in October, they still exceeded $3 trillion in the first 10 months of the year - the first time they’ve hit that mark so quickly. In combination with weak imports for much of the year, the trade surplus has been setting fresh records, hitting $965 billion so far in 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's exports fell 1.1% year-on-year in October, the first decline in eight months, as a drop of more than 25% in shipments to the US outweighed a 3.1% rise in shipments to all other nations, according to official data.
  2. China's exports still exceeded $3 trillion in the first 10 months of 2025, the first time they have reached that mark so quickly, despite October's overall decline.
  3. China's trade surplus has been setting fresh records, reaching $965 billion so far in 2025, in combination with weak imports for much of the year.

Related Articles:

  • How NOT To Negotiate With China — Trade diversion signals deep distress in China's export sector, and the author argues a sustained 10% tariff hike would be more credible than larger ones and could counter China's rare earths leverage. Easing up on Chinese exporters instead signals weakness and discourages Europe from coordinating with the US.
  • China Emerges From Trade Chaos With Record Exports, Surplus — China posted a record half-year trade surplus of about $586bn, with exports up 5.8% year-over-year to $325bn and imports up 1.1%. Shipments to the US fell 16.1% from a year earlier, while exports to the 10 Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group rose 17%.
  • China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign: Global Implications — China's economy has slowed as domestic investment stagnates and consumer spending stays weak, with the shortfall partly offset by rising net exports. The author argues these internal problems are being passed to the rest of the world, since export values are rising about 6% a year while import values are down 2.2%.

AI Summary. Germany's chancellor has backed protectionist measures to shield the country's ailing steel industry from cheap Chinese imports, departing from Germany's traditional commitment to free trade. He also supported taxing imports from countries that do not apply EU carbon emissions standards and incentives for companies to buy EU-produced steel.

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany Financial Times
Date Posted:

Friedrich Merz is backing a series of protectionist measures to insulate the country’s steel industry from cheap Chinese steel, including tariffs and a tax on imports from countries “that do not apply the same CO₂ emissions standards as the EU.”

Is Germany abandoning free trade to protect its steel industry?

Core argument: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has backed protectionist measures to shield Germany's ailing steel industry from cheap Chinese imports, a departure from the country's traditional commitment to free trade.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has backed protectionist measures to shield the country’s ailing steel industry from cheap Chinese imports, in a striking departure from the country’s traditional commitment to free trade. He also supported taxing imported goods from countries that do not apply the same CO₂ emissions standards as the EU, and said he would favour incentives for companies to source EU-produced steel.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has backed protectionist measures to shield Germany's ailing steel industry from cheap Chinese imports, a departure from the country's traditional commitment to free trade.
  2. Merz supported taxing imported goods from countries that do not apply the same CO₂ emissions standards as the EU.
  3. Merz said he would favour incentives for companies to source EU-produced steel.

Related Articles:

  • China Is Also Fighting A Trade War with Europe (and Winning) — China is displacing foreign imports in sectors that were core European export strengths, including autos, construction equipment, industrial robots, specialty chemicals, batteries, permanent magnets, solar panels, wind turbines, and high-speed rail. European exports to China have fallen by about half a percentage point of European GDP, and the EU's trade deficit with China is set to double.
  • US-China Trade Clash Risks Making Europe Dumping Ground for Cheap Goods — China's trade surplus with the European Union reached a record $90bn over four months, fueling concerns that the bloc could become a dumping ground for cheap Chinese goods facing higher US import barriers. Most rerouting of Chinese exports currently passes through Latin America and Southeast Asia.
  • How German Industry Can Survive the Second China Shock — The European Union has 30mm manufacturing jobs, and China has grown from a $4tn economy producing under 15% of global manufacturing output to an $18tn economy producing over a third, with well over 50% of global capacity in many sectors. European tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles limit import competition but do not offset lost export markets.

AI Summary. In the US, 41% of women and 50% of men aged 25-34 were single, double the share of five decades earlier, and the share of people living alone rose in 26 of 30 mostly rich OECD countries. One estimate puts the global increase in single people at over 100m in a decade.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

Among Americans 25–34, 41% of women and 50% of men were single in 2023, a share that has doubled over the past 5 decades. Between 2010 and 2022, the fraction of people living alone rose in 26 of the 30 OECD countries.

Are more people across rich countries living single?

Core argument: In America, 41% of women and 50% of men aged 25-34 were single in 2023, a share that has doubled over the past five decades.

Across America, 41% of women and 50% of men (25-34) were single in 2023, a share that has doubled over the past five decades. Nor is America exceptional in this regard. Between 2010 and 2022 the share of people living alone (an admittedly imperfect measure of singlehood, but one for which data are more widely available) rose in 26 of the 30 members of the OECD, a club mostly of rich countries. Michael Rosenfeld, a sociologist at Stanford University, has found that the reduction in dating owing to the covid-19 pandemic produced 13.7m more singles in America in 2022 than if the singlehood rate (conservatively defined) had stayed at the level of 2017. To generate an estimate of the global increase in plus-nones, The Economist extrapolated from his data, while also taking into account sharp falls in marriage rates in a number of Asian countries, which predate the pandemic. We calculate that over the past decade such effects have swollen the ranks of single people around the world by at least 100m.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In America, 41% of women and 50% of men aged 25-34 were single in 2023, a share that has doubled over the past five decades.
  2. The share of people living alone, an imperfect but more widely available measure of singlehood, rose in 26 of the 30 OECD members between 2010 and 2022.
  3. Michael Rosenfeld, a Stanford sociologist, estimates that reduced dating during the covid-19 pandemic left 13.7m more American singles in 2022 than if the singlehood rate had held at 2017 levels; The Economist extrapolates a global rise of at least 100m over the past decade.

Related Articles:

  • Changes in Milestones of Adulthood — Among US young adults aged 25–34, the share completing a high school or college degree rose 9 percentage points to 83%, while the share ever married fell 18 points to 44% and the share living with a child fell 16 points to 39%. Economic milestones became more common as family formation milestones became less common.
  • Women, Men and Jobs — The share of U.S. prime-age men out of the labor force has more than quadrupled from about 2.5% to around 11%, with most supported by parents, wives, or partners rather than disability insurance. The shift toward knowledge and services has reduced male-coded jobs across all advanced countries, including Germany.
  • The Sex Recession: The Share Of Americans Having Regular Sex Keeps Dropping — General Social Survey data show the share of US adults ages 18–64 reporting weekly sex fell from 55% in 1990 to 37% by 2024. The decline extends to married adults across age groups, whose weekly rate fell from 59% to 49%.

AI Summary. OpenAI's chief executive said the company does not want federal guarantees for its data centers or a bailout if it fails, and that the government should build and own its own AI infrastructure, potentially including a strategic national reserve of computing power. OpenAI has commitments of about $1.4tn over the next eight years.

Sarah Krouse Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Sam Altman said OpenAI doesn’t want federal guarantees for its datacenters or a bailout if it fails, but did suggest the Federal government should build its own AI infrastructure, and possibly create a strategic national reserve of computing power.

Should the government guarantee or bail out AI companies?

Core argument: Altman said he expects OpenAI to end the year above a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billions by 2030; the startup has commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next eight years.

OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman said the startup doesn’t want federal guarantees for its data centers or a bailout if it fails, laying out what he thinks the government’s role should be in America’s AI infrastructure build-out; “If we screw up and can’t fix it, we should fail, and other companies will continue on doing good work and servicing customers.” Altman’s post came a day after OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said that the startup hoped financial institutions and perhaps the federal government would support its efforts by helping to guarantee chip financing. The startup has commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next eight years. Altman said he expects the company to end the year with more than “$20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030.” Altman said the government should build and own its own AI infrastructure and potentially create a strategic national reserve of computing power. “But this should be for the government’s benefit, not the benefit of private companies,” he wrote.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Altman said he expects OpenAI to end the year above a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billions by 2030; the startup has commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next eight years.
  2. Altman said the government should build and own its own AI infrastructure and potentially create a strategic national reserve of computing power, for the government's benefit rather than that of private companies.
  3. Altman said OpenAI does not want federal guarantees for its data centers or a bailout if it fails, a day after Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said the startup hoped financial institutions and perhaps the federal government would help guarantee chip financing.

Related Articles:

  • OpenAI Isn’t Yet Working Toward an IPO, CFO Says — OpenAI is seeking backing from banks, private equity, and potentially governments to help guarantee financing for AI chips, arguing such guarantees could lower borrowing costs and raise the amount of debt it can take on. The company expects to spend roughly $600bn on computing power from Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon.
  • Minsky Moments and AI CapEx — Capital-spending forecasts for the four largest cloud providers rose nearly 50% over the year, and AI data centers are increasingly funded through leveraged and off-balance-sheet structures, including $3.2bn in senior secured notes and a roughly $30bn asset-backed financing. The author argues this marks a speculative-finance phase where borrowers must roll over principal.
  • Why We Are Not In A Bubble….Yet — The 5 largest US technology companies are worth about 16% of the global public equity market, and the top 10 US stocks nearly 25%, almost $25tn. The author argues valuations are high but not bubble-level, with the "Magnificent 7" median forward price-to-earnings ratio at 27x, roughly half that of the late-1990s leaders.