Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, October 23, 2025

AI Summary. The global investable asset universe is estimated at $261tn, or 200% of world GDP, with shifting asset weights tied to macro trends. The authors argue value-weighted global benchmarks have seldom been optimal for any particular investor, as they forgo diversification from smaller assets and performance varies across macro regimes.

Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Andrea Ferrario, Alessandro Giglio and Peter Oppenheimer Goldman Sachs
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The global stock of investable assets is valued at $261T, or ~ 200% of world GDP, up from ~75% in the 1990s. The weight of equity relative to bonds is higher than it was post-GFC, but below 1990s levels.

Are value-weighted global benchmarks optimal for individual investors?

Core argument: The authors estimate the World Portfolio of all investable assets globally at $261tn, or 200% of world GDP, and construct a long-term proxy back to 1950 plus an investable index since 1990.

The World Portfolio is the sum of all investable assets globally, which we currently estimate to be [$261T], or 200% of world GDP. We create two versions of the World Portfolio: (1) a long-term proxy since 1950 using monthly data for a reconstructed, historical universe of global equities and bonds (mostly sovereign) and Gold, and (2) an investable index since 1990 using mostly daily data for a universe comprising benchmark indices for global equities, sovereign bonds, credit, real estate, private markets, cryptocurrencies and Gold. [Editor's Note: All figures shown here, excluding Exhibit 1, use the second measure]. Persistent shifts in asset weights are often closely linked to macro trends, like inflation boosting gold relative to equity and bond markets during the 1970s, or equity bubbles like the Tech Bubble during the late 1990s. Currently there are three major trends visible: (1) the equity weight relative to bonds has increased materially since the GFC but it remains below levels from the 1990s, (2) both in equities and bonds the US has accrued a larger weight and is very dominant and (3) alternatives such as private markets, Gold and cryptocurrencies have grown relative to public equities and bonds (but remain relatively small). Benchmarks like the World Portfolio are a major influence on investors' asset allocations. However, following benchmarks is not necessarily a good idea – even over longer horizons the World Portfolio has seldom been optimal [for any particular investor] and performance varied materially with structural macro regimes. Value-weighted benchmarks miss out on diversification benefits from smaller assets and, while US asset dominance was a tailwind in recent years, regional performance varied historically.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors estimate the World Portfolio of all investable assets globally at $261tn, or 200% of world GDP, and construct a long-term proxy back to 1950 plus an investable index since 1990.
  2. The equity weight relative to bonds has risen materially since the global financial crisis but remains below 1990s levels, while the US has accrued a dominant weight in both global equities and bonds.
  3. The World Portfolio has seldom been optimal for any particular investor, with performance varying materially across structural macro regimes and value-weighted benchmarks missing diversification benefits from smaller assets.

Related Articles:

  • Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns? — Of the 29,078 U.S. common stocks in a database spanning nearly a century, 51.6% had negative cumulative returns, while 17 stocks returned more than 5m% — led by Altria at 265m%. Those top performers averaged annualized returns of just 13.47%, underscoring the value of time invested.
  • Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence From 64,000 Global Stocks — A study of about 64,000 global stocks estimates net global stock market wealth creation of $75.7tn, with returns highly concentrated: the top 159 firms (0.25%) account for half of net wealth creation and the top 1,526 (2.39%) account for all of it. Fewer than half of stocks beat one-month US Treasury bills, 42.6% of non-US and 44.8% of US stocks.
  • Data Update 4 for 2025: Interest Rates, Inflation and Central Banks! — Interest rates are ultimately driven by macroeconomic fundamentals, with an "intrinsic risk-free rate" defined as the sum of the inflation rate and real GDP growth tracking the observed 10-year Treasury bond yield closely. On this view, central banks' influence comes from preferential access to data on those fundamentals, their capacity to alter them, and their credibility.

AI Summary. Regulatory data on hedge funds indicate Cayman Islands funds purchased a net $1.2tn of U.S. Treasury securities over a two-year period, corresponding to a surge in cash-futures "basis trade" positions. If entirely notes and bonds, those purchases absorbed 37% of net issuance, matching all other foreign investors combined, making the Cayman Islands the largest foreign holder.

Daniel Barth, Daniel Beltran, Matthew Hoops, Jay Kahn, et al. Federal Reserve Board
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After adjusting Treasury data for an estimated undercount of ~$1.4T suggested by regulatory data, a Federal Reserve analysis finds hedge funds domiciled in the Cayman Islands are, increasingly, the marginal foreign buyers of Treasury notes and bonds.

How much Treasury issuance have offshore hedge funds absorbed?

Core argument: Assuming those purchases were entirely Treasury notes and bonds, Cayman Islands hedge funds absorbed 37% of net note and bond issuance, matching the amount absorbed by all other foreign investors combined.

Recent regulatory data collections on hedge funds [in particular Form PF] indicate a massive increase in Cayman Islands hedge fund exposures to U.S. Treasury securities over the last two years. [This] corresponds to a surge in hedge funds' Treasury cash-futures basis trade positions [the "basis trade," where a trader simultaneously buys a U.S. Treasury security in the cash market and sells short a corresponding Treasury futures contract to profit from the price difference between the two instruments]. Combining various data sources, [we find that] btw Jan. 2022 and Dec. 2024, a time when the Fed was allowing roll off of maturing Treasuries, Cayman Islands hedge funds purchased, on net, $1.2 trillion of these securities. Assuming these purchases comprised entirely Treasury notes and bonds, they absorbed 37% of net bond and note issuance, the same amount as all other foreign investors combined. The Cayman Islands is in fact the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities—holding significantly more than China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, the largest 3 holders currently displayed in Treasury's "Major Foreign Holders" table.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Assuming those purchases were entirely Treasury notes and bonds, Cayman Islands hedge funds absorbed 37% of net note and bond issuance, matching the amount absorbed by all other foreign investors combined.
  2. The Cayman Islands is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, holding significantly more than China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, the three largest holders shown in Treasury's "Major Foreign Holders" table.

Related Articles:

  • JPMorgan Is Worried About Who’s Going to Buy All the Bonds — JPMorgan analysts estimate that the Federal Reserve's Treasury holdings have fallen $180bn as it pursues quantitative tightening, while commercial banks' holdings are down $60bn and foreign official holdings down $50bn. The analysts describe simultaneous negative demand from all three buyer types as rare and say they remain concerned about the lack of structural demand for Treasuries.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.
  • Why Microsoft Has Lower Borrowing Costs Than the U.S. — Two AAA-rated Microsoft bonds trade at yields slightly below equivalent U.S. Treasurys, an unusual negative spread given that companies are more likely to default than a government able to tax and that corporate bonds are harder to sell. Demand for high-quality corporate debt has compressed the AAA corporate spread to 0.3 percentage point over Treasurys.

AI Summary. China's producer price inflation for durable consumer goods — the category most exposed to US tariffs — dropped sharply alongside the imposition of substantial US tariffs, consistent with exporters marking down prices to sell goods at home. Because limited warehouse capacity forces exporters to keep goods moving, discounting to generate new demand cuts into their profitability.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
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Producer prices for durable consumer goods had fallen 3.9% y/y in China as of September. Brooks argues that, given the importance of exports to the Chinese, American tariffs are helping to entrench deflation in China.

Are US tariffs pushing Chinese exporters to discount prices at home?

Core argument: China's year-over-year producer price inflation for durable consumer goods dropped sharply as substantial US tariffs took effect in 2025, consistent with exporters marking down prices to sell goods domestically.

The chart shows year-over-year producer price inflation for consumer goods (black line) and for durable consumer goods (blue line), which are most likely to have been impacted by US tariffs. The imposition of substantial US tariffs in 2025 overlaps with a sharp drop in producer price inflation for the latter category, consistent with the idea that exporters are marking down prices in an attempt to sell goods at home. The bottom line is that China’s exporters are hurting. Just-in-time manufacturing means warehouse capacity is limited, so it’s important to keep goods moving. The only way to do that in the face of the tariff shock, which makes it much harder to sell in the US, is to discount and thereby generate new demand abroad and domestically. That’s a negative shock to the profitability of China’s exporters.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's year-over-year producer price inflation for durable consumer goods dropped sharply as substantial US tariffs took effect in 2025, consistent with exporters marking down prices to sell goods domestically.
  2. Just-in-time manufacturing leaves Chinese exporters with limited warehouse capacity, so discounting to generate new demand at home and abroad is the only way to keep goods moving under the tariff shock.
  3. Discounting in the face of US tariffs is a negative shock to the profitability of China's exporters.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Youth Unemployment Soars To 2-Year High As Job Crunch Deepens — China's urban unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds excluding students rose to 18.9% from 17.8%, the highest since the National Bureau of Statistics revised its calculation method for the series. A record 12.2m university students graduated into a job market strained by deflationary pressures and external uncertainties, with many struggling to find roles matching their education and skills.
  • Xi Overcapacity Fight Leaves Economy Vulnerable Without Stimulus — China's total debt has risen to over 300% of gross domestic product from a little over 200% a decade ago, and with the main policy rate at 1.4%, the central bank has limited room to cut. Price declines are more widespread than in past deflationary episodes, and large-scale stimulus remains off the table.
  • China Criticises Manufacturers Over Price War As Deflation Fears Mount — Chinese producer prices have been in deflationary territory since September 2022, and Chinese leaders have used state and party media to criticise "involution", or excessive price competition among manufacturers. The statements suggest Beijing is wary that rising industrial output alongside weak domestic consumer demand is entrenching deflation and straining relations with major trading partners.

AI Summary. Data published in Nature show U.S. nuclear construction costs rose steeply after the 1960s while China's fell by half during the 2000s and have since stabilized. China's nuclear companies repeatedly build only a handful of reactor designs, which analysts say streamlines licensing, simplifies supply chains, and is essential for scaling efficiently.

Brad Plumer and Harry Stevens New York Times
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The cost per watt of the newest nuclear plants in the US is $15, relative to $1.67-$2.58 per watt for Chinese nuclear plants under construction. Since 2013, the US has built two new nuclear reactors while China has built 13 and has 33 underway.

Does repeatedly building the same reactor designs lower nuclear construction costs?

Core argument: Chinese nuclear construction costs fell by half during the 2000s and have since stabilized, while U.S. costs rose sharply after the 1960s, according to data published in Nature.

While U.S. nuclear construction costs skyrocketed after the 1960s, they fell by half in China during the 2000s and have since stabilized, according to data published recently in Nature. (The only two U.S. reactors built this century, at the Vogtle nuclear plant in Waynesboro, Ga., took 11 years and cost $35 billion.) China’s nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types and they do it over and over again. That allows developers to perfect the construction process and is “essential for scaling efficiently,” said Joy Jiang, an energy innovation analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, a pro-nuclear research organization. “It means you can streamline licensing and simplify your supply chain.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Chinese nuclear construction costs fell by half during the 2000s and have since stabilized, while U.S. costs rose sharply after the 1960s, according to data published in Nature.
  2. The only two U.S. reactors built this century, at the Vogtle plant in Waynesboro, Ga., took 11 years and cost $35 billion.
  3. China's nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types repeatedly, an approach Joy Jiang of the Breakthrough Institute calls "essential for scaling efficiently" because it lets developers streamline licensing and simplify the supply chain.

Related Articles:

  • Heliocentrism — An energy use must be electrified before green grid electricity can decarbonize it, and while US grid decarbonization continues at a steady pace, the electricity share of final US energy consumption has grown little. Transmission line growth runs well below Department of Energy targets for 2030 and 2035, and transformer delivery times have stretched from 4–6 weeks to 2–3 years.
  • Nuclear Power Is Hard. A Climate-Minded Billionaire Wants to Make It Easier — Start-up TerraPower has begun building a sodium-cooled nuclear reactor designed to be smaller and cheaper than conventional water-cooled plants, with completion expected no earlier than 2030 and the design not yet approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The company says the reactors should ultimately generate electricity at half the cost of traditional nuclear plants.
  • Plant Vogtle Unit 4 Begins Commercial Operation — The 1,114-megawatt Unit 4 reactor at Georgia's Plant Vogtle entered commercial operation, completing an 11-year expansion that brings the plant's capacity to nearly 5 gigawatts and makes it the largest US nuclear plant. No nuclear reactors are currently under construction in the United States, where nuclear supplies about 19% of electricity.

AI Summary. Google says its "Quantum Echoes" algorithm, run on its Willow quantum chip and detailed in a paper in Nature, is verifiable on other quantum computers and ran 13,000x faster than the world's best classical supercomputer. Google says the advance points to useful quantum applications in medicine and materials science within five years.

Isabella Ward Bloomberg
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Google claims it successfully ran an algorithm on “Willow,” its quantum computing chip. The breakthrough “clears a path for useful applications of quantum technology within five years.”

Is quantum computing nearing useful real-world applications?

Core argument: Google said its "Quantum Echoes" algorithm ran 13,000 times faster on the Willow quantum chip than would be possible on the world's best supercomputer, in results detailed in a paper published in Nature.

Google ran an algorithm on its “Willow” quantum-computing chip that can be repeated on similar platforms and outperform classical supercomputers, a breakthrough it said clears a path for useful applications of quantum technology within five years. The “Quantum Echoes” algorithm, detailed in a paper published in Nature, is verifiable, meaning it can be repeated on another quantum computer. It also ran 13,000 times faster than possible on the world’s best supercomputer, Google said. Taken together, the advances point to a broad range of potential uses in medicine and materials science, Google said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Google said its "Quantum Echoes" algorithm ran 13,000 times faster on the Willow quantum chip than would be possible on the world's best supercomputer, in results detailed in a paper published in Nature.
  2. Google described the Quantum Echoes algorithm as verifiable, meaning it can be repeated on another quantum computer.
  3. Google said the advances clear a path to useful applications of quantum technology within five years, with potential uses in medicine and materials science.

Related Articles:

  • IBM Has a Roadmap to a ‘Fault-Tolerant’ Quantum Computer by 2029 — IBM has laid out a roadmap for building a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, citing advances in reducing errors in quantum bits and a technique for identifying and correcting errors in real time using conventional computing. Amazon and Google are also pursuing quantum error correction with dedicated chips.
  • Physicists Question Microsoft’s Quantum Claim — Physicists outside the work have responded cautiously to Microsoft's topological quantum computing claim, noting that the search for topological qubits and the "Majorana" particles underpinning them has a history of bold announcements later withdrawn. Researchers describe the technology as excruciatingly difficult to actually build.
  • Microsoft’s Majorana 1 Chip Carves New Path for Quantum Computing — Microsoft unveiled Majorana 1, a quantum chip built on a Topological Core architecture using a new materials stack of indium arsenide and aluminum, which the company expects will enable quantum computers capable of solving industrial-scale problems within years rather than decades. The topological superconductor produces a qubit that is fast, small, stable, and digitally controlled.

AI Summary. In the United States, falling birth rates have accompanied a decline in religious participation, with the share of Americans attending worship services weekly falling from 42% to 30% over 20 years, according to Gallup. Survey data show 68% of Americans in their mid-70s or older attended weekly services in childhood, versus 48% of those in their early 20s.

Daniel Cox American Storylines
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Among religious Americans aged 18–39, 57% and 66% of women and men, respectively, report wanting children someday, compared to 33% and 31% of their non-religious peers.

Does declining religious participation help explain falling US birth rates?

Core argument: The share of Americans attending worship services weekly fell from 42% to 30% over the last 20 years, according to Gallup, a decline that has accompanied falling U.S. birth rates.

Declining fertility rates are probably not attributable to a single cause, but in the United States, there is a strong connection to one of the defining cultural trends of the 21st century—the collapse of religious participation. In the U.S., falling birth rates have accompanied a dramatic decline in formal religious participation. Over the last 20 years, the percentage of Americans attending worship services weekly fell from 42% to 30%, according to a recent Gallup report. These trends have transformed adolescent experiences and their exposure to religious values. Pew’s 2024 Religious Landscape Study found that more than two-thirds (68%) of Americans now in their mid-70s or older attended services at least weekly during their childhood compared with less than half (48%) of those currently in their early 20s. The generational gap in formal religious education is even wider.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of Americans attending worship services weekly fell from 42% to 30% over the last 20 years, according to Gallup, a decline that has accompanied falling U.S. birth rates.
  2. Pew's 2024 Religious Landscape Study found 68% of Americans now in their mid-70s or older attended services at least weekly during childhood, compared with 48% of those in their early 20s.
  3. Declining fertility rates are probably not attributable to a single cause, but in the United States there is a strong connection to the collapse of formal religious participation.

Related Articles:

  • Depopulation Globally and in the Asia-Pacific: The Shape of Things to Come — Population aging and fertility below replacement levels are connected to a revolution in family structure in which families grow smaller, fewer people marry, and voluntary childlessness becomes common across countries. As a result, families become less able to bear the demands that may be placed on them.
  • An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055 — The Congressional Budget Office projects U.S. population growth averaging 0.2% per year through 2055, less than one-fifth the 0.9% annual average from 1975 to 2024. Deaths are projected to exceed births beginning in 2031, with net immigration more than accounting for population growth from 2031 to 2055.
  • The Case for Gradual Population Decline — South Korea's fertility rate fell below 1.7 in 1985 and its share of population aged 20-40 has fallen 20% since 2000, yet it ranked first in Bloomberg's Innovation Index and twelfth in a global soft power ranking. The author argues low fertility does not inevitably cause technological and cultural stagnation.

Friday, October 24, 2025

AI Summary. Bloomberg Economics projects the largest participants could pour as much as $4tn into artificial intelligence infrastructure by the end of the decade, with capital spending by hyperscalers such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft rising from almost $400bn to as much as $600bn. It expects AI's contribution to GDP growth could reach as much as 1.5 percentage points.

Shawn Donnan, Brooke Sutherland, Mark Niquette, and Alexandre Tanzi Bloomberg
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As AI-related real private fixed investment has surged, non-AI-related investment’s contribution to US real private fixed investment has turned negative.

How much will AI infrastructure spending add to economic growth?

Core argument: Bloomberg Economics expects the largest participants to pour as much as $4 trillion into AI infrastructure through 2030, with hyperscaler spending rising from almost $400 billion this year to as much as $600 billion.

The AI investment surge invites comparisons to other historical buildouts (and bubbles), such as the construction of the railways in the 1870s and the late 1990s flood of capital into fiber-optic and wireless networks. Altogether, the largest participants are expected to pour as much as $4 trillion into AI infrastructure through 2030, according to Bloomberg Economics. Bloomberg Economics expects AI’s contribution to GDP growth could rise to as much as 1.5 percentage points next year as the so-called hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and others—dial up their investments from almost $400 billion this year to as much as $600 billion. “If it weren’t for AI, we’d probably be looking at significantly slower growth or even a modest recession,” says Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at hedge fund Bridgewater Associates.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Bloomberg Economics expects the largest participants to pour as much as $4 trillion into AI infrastructure through 2030, with hyperscaler spending rising from almost $400 billion this year to as much as $600 billion.
  2. Bloomberg Economics expects AI's contribution to GDP growth could rise to as much as 1.5 percentage points next year as hyperscalers including Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms and Microsoft increase their investments.
  3. Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates, says that without AI, growth would probably be significantly slower or in a modest recession.

Related Articles:

  • The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack — Data center construction spending has eclipsed office construction, and the specialized power rates most data centers pay fall short of covering the cost of a new natural gas plant, leaving other customers to bear part of the bill. In the PJM grid region, data center demand accounted for 70% of the increase in electricity costs over the past year.
  • Fair Shakes — Technology-sector capital spending has accounted for 35%–45% of US GDP growth over three quarters, implying that without it growth would be near 1% given weak consumption. Among S&P 500 companies, capital spending rose 24% and research and development 10%, but the median stock grew both by only 3%–4%.
  • How America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing The Rest Of The Economy — About a sixth of America's 2% real GDP growth over the past year came from investment in computer and communications equipment and data centres, and one estimate puts the artificial intelligence boom's total contribution to growth at 40%. Average electricity bills rose 7%, attributed in part to data-centre demand, while housebuilding and non-AI business investment slumped and real consumption flatlined.

AI Summary. An analysis estimating immigrants' effects on output, capital, tax revenue, and descendants finds admitting one 30-year-old without a high school diploma costs the federal government $20,000 over 10 years and over $130,000 over 30 years, while a college-educated 30-year-old yields over $200,000 and $1.6m respectively.

Daniel Di Martino Manhattan Institute
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A 30-year-old immigrant without a high school degree yields net revenue losses of $20k to the federal government over 10 years and >$130k over 30 years, while his college-educated peer yields fiscal gains of $200k over 10 years and $1.6mm over 30 years.

How does an immigrant's education level change the fiscal impact?

Core argument: Admitting one college-educated 30-year-old immigrant yields a net federal gain of over $200,000 in the 10-year budget window and $1.6 million over 30 years, accounting for descendants, according to the analysis.

This updated analysis accounts for the economic impact of immigrants on Gross Domestic Product, the capital stock, and the resulting additional tax revenue. It also accounts for the fiscal and economic impact of the children and grandchildren of immigrants. [It does not account for inflation. All numbers from 2026 on are in nominal terms, mimicking CBO scoring]. Accounting for descendants, the total fiscal impact of admitting one immigrant who is 30 years old without a high school diploma is a loss of $20,000 to the federal government in the 10-year budget window and a loss of over $130,000 over the 30-year budget window. On the other hand, admitting one college-educated 30-year-old immigrant results in a net gain of over $200,000 in the 10-year window and a gain of $1.6 million in the 30-year budget window. Shifting visas toward high-skilled categories, wage-ranking H-1B visas, and recapturing unused employment-based green cards from previous years can reduce deficits while boosting GDP.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Admitting one college-educated 30-year-old immigrant yields a net federal gain of over $200,000 in the 10-year budget window and $1.6 million over 30 years, accounting for descendants, according to the analysis.
  2. Admitting one 30-year-old immigrant without a high school diploma costs the federal government $20,000 over the 10-year window and over $130,000 over 30 years, including the fiscal impact of children and grandchildren.
  3. The analysis finds that shifting visas toward high-skilled categories, wage-ranking H-1B visas, and recapturing unused employment-based green cards from prior years can reduce deficits while boosting GDP.

Related Articles:

  • Two New Estimates of the Fiscal Impact of Immigration — Estimates of immigrants' fiscal impact depend heavily on the assumptions used: the lifetime fiscal impact of a 22-year-old high school dropout shifts from negative $315,000 under one set of assumptions to a small negative number under another. The author argues the accounting approach common in this literature understates immigrants' contribution to fiscal sustainability.
  • America’s — Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.
  • Immigration Mess: An Illustrated Guide — Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.
  • Did The Political Establishment Pave The Way For Trump and Farage? — An analysis finds that voters and mainstream politicians have long been broadly aligned on economic issues such as tax and spending, but diverge widely on sociocultural issues like immigration and criminal justice, with publics favoring more order and cultural integration while politicians lean toward more inclusive, permissive approaches.

AI Summary. Young men and people out of work in English-speaking countries report markedly higher social isolation, which is associated with greater risk of self-destructive behavior. Because enduring involuntary joblessness rather than financial distress appears to drive the harm, large-scale AI-driven unemployment might not be offset even by a substantial universal basic income.

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
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Young men and the unemployed report higher feelings of isolation in the Anglosphere relative to non-English-speaking countries. AI could amplify these trends if it drives “the lasting destruction of professions and careers” and long-term joblessness.

Can universal basic income offset the harm from widespread job loss?

Core argument: Young men and people out of work in English-speaking countries report significantly higher social isolation, which markedly increases the risk of self-destructive behaviour.

Both young men and people out of work report being significantly more socially isolated in English-speaking countries, markedly increasing the risk of self-destructive behaviour. Several factors in non-anglophone countries may be playing a protective role here, from levels of religious belief and social solidarity to more concrete factors such as close-knit multigenerational family units. These may allow other populations to weather storms that damage anglophone societies. This dangerous combination of economic dislocation and social isolation brings us to AI. If future iterations of today’s large language models do, one day, bring about joblessness at scale, it will not be a passing spike. Rather it will mean the lasting destruction of professions and careers, permanently scarring the generation affected. Because enduring involuntary unemployment (much more than financial distress) is what causes the harm, even a substantial universal basic income might not be sufficient to replace the loss of purpose, camaraderie and social contact that work can provide.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Young men and people out of work in English-speaking countries report significantly higher social isolation, which markedly increases the risk of self-destructive behaviour.
  2. Religious belief, social solidarity, and close-knit multigenerational family units may act as protective factors in non-anglophone countries, allowing those populations to weather storms that damage anglophone societies.
  3. Should future large language models bring about joblessness at scale, the resulting destruction of professions and careers would be lasting, and because enduring involuntary unemployment rather than financial distress causes the harm, even a substantial universal basic income might not suffice.

Related Articles:

  • Declining Life Satisfaction and Happiness Among Young Adults in Six English-speaking Countries — Eleven studies find declines in life satisfaction and happiness among young adults in the US, Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, and the UK. In these countries life satisfaction now rises with age across the lifespan, as young people's life satisfaction dropped sharply while that of people 45 and over stayed flat.
  • Disconnected: The Growing Class Divide in American Civic Life — 17% of Americans report having no close friends, and survey data show a wide educational gap: 24% of those with a high school education or less have no close friends versus 10% of college graduates. Three decades ago, Americans with less formal education reported social circles at least as large.
  • Teens Used To Be Happier. What Changed? — The share of US high school seniors describing themselves as "very happy" peaked at 24.8% and remained around 24.4% before falling to 11.4% at its low, recovering only to 12.7%, well below the 17.9% recorded before the pandemic. The decline coincided with smartphones and social media becoming pervasive.

AI Summary. Japan plans to raise defense-related spending to 2% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending March 2026, two years ahead of the existing target date of March 2028. The government also set economic goals it says require no tax increases and prioritized domestic energy sources including nuclear power and Japanese-developed perovskite solar cells.

Mitsuru Obe and Yuichi Shiga Nikkei Asia
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Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has unveiled a plan to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by this spring. If this goal is met, the plan would achieve Tokyo’s 2% defense spending target two years ahead of the current trajectory of March 2028.

Is Japan accelerating its defense spending target to 2% of GDP?

Core argument: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged to raise Japan's defense-related spending to a level equivalent to 2% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2026, two years ahead of the existing plan to reach that target by March 2028.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in her first policy address to parliament on Friday, unveiled a plan to lift Japan's defense-related spending to a level equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product in the current fiscal year ending March 2026, while also outlining a list of economic goals that she said can be achieved without raising taxes. If met, the increase in defense outlays would come two years ahead of the current plan for achieving the 2% target by the end of a five-year buildup through March 2028. Developing domestic energy sources will also be a key focus under the new administration, according to the policy address, in which Takaichi referred to nuclear power, newer and safer reactors, nuclear fusion technology and Japanese-developed perovskite solar cells, a thin, flexible technology that was developed in Japan and can be installed on walls and roofs.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged to raise Japan's defense-related spending to a level equivalent to 2% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2026, two years ahead of the existing plan to reach that target by March 2028.
  2. Takaichi outlined economic goals in her first policy address to parliament that she said can be achieved without raising taxes.
  3. Takaichi named developing domestic energy sources as a key focus, citing nuclear power, newer and safer reactors, nuclear fusion technology, and Japanese-developed perovskite solar cells that can be installed on walls and roofs.

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AI Summary. A tally by Bloomberg News found only 168 of the 205 members of China's Communist Party Central Committee attended the party's fourth plenum, the lowest attendance rate since the Cultural Revolution, with 42 officials including alternate members absent without explanation. The tally suggests the anti-corruption purges are wider than publicly known.

Bloomberg Staff Bloomberg
Date Posted:

At the CCP’s recent plenum, only 168 of the 205 Central Committee members attended; 26 of the absences lacked explanation, suggesting Xi’s anti-corruption purges are wider than publicly known.

Are China's party purges wider than officially disclosed?

Core argument: Only 168 of 205 Chinese Communist Party Central Committee members attended the fourth plenum in Beijing, the lowest attendance rate for such a session since the Cultural Revolution, according to a Bloomberg News tally.

Only 168 of the 205 Central Committee members turned up at the Communist Party’s fourth plenum this week, the lowest attendance rate for such a session since the chaotic years of the Cultural Revolution, according to a tally by Bloomberg News. After accounting for one fatality and 10 cadres already kicked out of the party, there were still 26 officials who skipped the four-day huddle in Beijing without explanation. Separately, another 16 alternate members were unaccounted for, bringing the total number of officials absent without explanation to 42. Taken together, the mysterious absences suggest President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption purges are wider than publicly known.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Only 168 of 205 Chinese Communist Party Central Committee members attended the fourth plenum in Beijing, the lowest attendance rate for such a session since the Cultural Revolution, according to a Bloomberg News tally.
  2. After accounting for one death and 10 cadres already expelled from the party, 26 Central Committee members skipped the four-day plenum without explanation, along with 16 unaccounted-for alternate members, totaling 42 unexplained absences.
  3. The unexplained absences from the fourth plenum suggest President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption purges are wider than publicly known.

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