Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, October 15, 2025

AI Summary. Gold prices have risen in a near-straight line even as the dollar held stable and the Federal Reserve turned more hawkish than expected, indicating the rally is not a flight out of the dollar specifically. The author argues it instead reflects a broader flight out of all major developed-market currencies, a "global debasement trade.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
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Gold’s spot price has risen ~59% since the start of the year. Since Powell’s Jackson speech, gold has risen ~25% while the dollar has remained stable against G10 currencies in a broad debasement of advanced economies’ currencies relative to gold.

Is the gold rally a flight from all major currencies?

Core argument: Gold prices have risen in an almost straight line since August 22, a move described as very unusual given that the September 17 Fed meeting was more hawkish than expected and should have caused a material pull-back.

The rise in gold prices since Jackson Hole is very unusual: as the chart shows, gold prices (black line) are up in an almost straight line since August 22. That’s remarkable given that the Sep. 17 Fed meeting was more hawkish than expected - something that should have caused a material pull-back in gold - and given all the back and forth over rare earths with China. Furthermore, the latest rise in gold prices has coincided with a stable Dollar (blue line). Whatever is going on now, it’s not about a flight out of the Dollar as in April. The current rally must therefore be about a broader flight out of all G10 currencies, which makes me sympathetic to what people are calling “the global debasement trade.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Gold prices have risen in an almost straight line since August 22, a move described as very unusual given that the September 17 Fed meeting was more hawkish than expected and should have caused a material pull-back.
  2. The latest gold rally has coincided with a stable Dollar, which suggests it is not a flight out of the Dollar of the kind seen in April.
  3. The rally is attributed to a broader flight out of all G10 currencies, lending sympathy to what people are calling "the global debasement trade.".

Related Articles:

  • Gold’s Spectacular Three-Year Rally Is Breaking All the Records — Central banks have been a dominant force in gold's rally, buying bullion in volumes that pushed analysts to build new models to track the demand, motivated by a drive to diversify away from the dollar and shield assets from hostile nations. Gold has overtaken the euro as the second-largest asset in global central bank reserves.
  • De-Dollarization? Diversification? Exploring Central Bank Gold Purchases and the Dollar’s Role in International Reserves — Central banks' gold accumulation is generally not associated with reducing the dollar's share of international reserves at the country level, apart from a few prominent cases, and is more consistent with modest overall diversification. Gold's role as an official-sector store of value has grown, but its use as a unit of account and medium of exchange remains limited.
  • Taking Stock: Dollar Assets, Gold, and Official Foreign Exchange Reserves — Gold accounts for about 10% of aggregate official foreign exchange reserves, roughly its level in the early 2000s. International Monetary Fund country data indicate most added official gold holdings came from a few central banks, with over half of reported accumulation from China and Russia and about a quarter from several emerging markets.

AI Summary. France's prime minister said he would suspend the plan to raise the retirement age to 64 until the next presidential election, while asking parties to agree on other savings. He outlined a €30bn package of spending cuts and tax rises to cut the deficit to 4.7% of national output from 5.4%.

Sarah White and Ian Johnston Financial Times
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Newly reappointed Sébastien Lecornu has proposed suspending plans to raise the retirement age to 64 until 2027. In exchange, he wants other spending cuts and tax increases that would stabilize the deficit at <5% of GDP.

Will France suspend its pension reform to secure deficit reduction?

Core argument: French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said he would suspend Emmanuel Macron's plan to raise the retirement age to 64 until 2027, when presidential elections are due, reversing Macron's flagship economic policy in a breakthrough for the left.

In a major breakthrough for the left and a U-turn on Macron’s flagship economic policy, Sébastien Lecornu said he would suspend plans to raise the retirement age to 64 until 2027, when presidential elections are due. But parties would have to agree on other savings to keep next year’s deficit at under 5% of national output, he added. The premier outlined a €30bn fiscal package of spending cuts and tax rises, designed to take the deficit to 4.7% of national output in 2026 from 5.4% this year. The prime minister said everything was up for debate, however, and the target could be eased, although he urged parties to agree to keep the deficit under 5%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said he would suspend Emmanuel Macron's plan to raise the retirement age to 64 until 2027, when presidential elections are due, reversing Macron's flagship economic policy in a breakthrough for the left.
  2. Lecornu outlined a €30bn package of spending cuts and tax rises designed to cut France's deficit to 4.7% of national output in 2026 from 5.4% this year.
  3. Lecornu said parties would have to agree on other savings to keep next year's deficit under 5% of national output, adding that everything was up for debate and the target could be eased.

Related Articles:

  • French Companies’ Borrowing Costs Fall Below Government’s As Debt Fears Intensify — Bond yields for French companies including L'Oréal, Airbus and Axa have fallen below those on French government debt of similar maturity, with 10 French firms trading at a negative spread to the sovereign — the most in data going back to 2006, according to Goldman Sachs. Sovereign yields typically set a baseline for corporate bonds.
  • Europe’s Right-Wing Populists Swerve Left on the Economy — Right-wing populist parties across Europe, including the Sweden Democrats, Austria's Freedom Party, Germany's Alternative for Germany and France's National Rally, have shifted from small-government, low-tax, free-trade platforms toward calls for higher welfare benefits, subsidies and protectionism, often alongside pro-market positions.
  • France and Britain Are In Thrall To Pensioners — French pensioners receive larger government payments than in any other western country and begin receiving them several years earlier, leaving over-65s with higher average incomes than the working-age population — a situation without precedent internationally or in France's own history. Proposals to raise the retirement age or delay pension increases have triggered nationwide protests and government collapses.

AI Summary. The performance gap between the top American and Chinese AI models narrowed from 9.3% to 1.7%, with Chinese firms relying on cheaper open-source models—DeepSeek prices usage 20-40x below OpenAI's ChatGPT. This price advantage could win adoption in developing countries and build dependency on Chinese AI ecosystems.

Derek Chollet, Terah Lyons, Lisa Sawyer and Kip Wainscott J.P. Morgan
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China’s DeepSeek costs 20–40x less per million “input tokens” than OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Can cheaper Chinese AI models win adoption in developing countries?

Core argument: The performance gap between America's top AI model and its Chinese counterpart narrowed from 9.3% in January 2024 to 1.7% in February 2025.

Chinese AI models are rapidly catching up in quality compared to their American competitors. In January 2024, the performance gap between America’s top AI model and that of its Chinese counterpart was 9.3%. By February 2025, that gap had narrowed to 1.7%. Chinese AI companies, which tend to rely on less expensive and open-source models, could be able to strategically price their software licenses at lower costs than American AI companies running on closed models. This price differential may lead to in-roads on the part of Chinese AI companies with developing countries, building ecosystem dependency on Chinese AI models and software that need to be just “good enough” to deliver more basic automation of services in sectors like education, healthcare, and public administration. Chinese company DeepSeek has priced usage of their models 20-40 times less expensive than OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The performance gap between America's top AI model and its Chinese counterpart narrowed from 9.3% in January 2024 to 1.7% in February 2025.
  2. Chinese firm DeepSeek prices usage of its models 20-40 times less expensively than OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Chinese AI companies tend to rely on less expensive, open-source models rather than closed ones.
  3. Lower-cost Chinese AI licensing may create in-roads with developing countries and build ecosystem dependency on Chinese models that need only be "good enough" to deliver basic automation in education, healthcare, and public administration.

Related Articles:

  • DeepSeek Debates: Chinese Leadership On Cost, True Training Cost, Closed Model Margin Impacts — Estimates put algorithmic progress in artificial intelligence at roughly 4x per year, meaning the compute needed for a given capability level falls 4x annually, with some industry leaders arguing improvements run closer to 10x. The Bank of China announced a $140bn (1tn yuan) five-year subsidy for the AI industry chain aimed at making China self-reliant in science and technology.
  • The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack — Data center construction spending has eclipsed office construction, and the specialized power rates most data centers pay fall short of covering the cost of a new natural gas plant, leaving other customers to bear part of the bill. In the PJM grid region, data center demand accounted for 70% of the increase in electricity costs over the past year.
  • Why We Are Not In A Bubble….Yet — The 5 largest US technology companies are worth about 16% of the global public equity market, and the top 10 US stocks nearly 25%, almost $25tn. The author argues valuations are high but not bubble-level, with the "Magnificent 7" median forward price-to-earnings ratio at 27x, roughly half that of the late-1990s leaders.

AI Summary. Nearly 200 US factory completions and a $590bn construction pipeline led by megaprojects of $5bn or more point to advanced manufacturing as a durable growth engine, with spillovers to industrial real estate, private credit, and employment.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
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Almost 200 new American factories have come online since mid-2023, and Torsten Sløk estimates there is a $590B pipeline of new domestic advanced manufacturing projects.

Is advanced manufacturing becoming a durable US growth engine?

Core argument: Nearly 200 US factory completions since mid-2023, alongside a $590 billion construction pipeline led by megaprojects of $5 billion or more, indicate a US manufacturing cycle gaining traction.

The US manufacturing cycle is gaining traction. With nearly 200 factory completions since mid-2023 and a $590 billion pipeline led by $5 billion-plus megaprojects, advanced manufacturing is set to be a durable growth engine for the US economy with positive spillovers to industrial real estate, private credit and nationwide employment.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nearly 200 US factory completions since mid-2023, alongside a $590 billion construction pipeline led by megaprojects of $5 billion or more, indicate a US manufacturing cycle gaining traction.
  2. Advanced manufacturing is positioned as a durable growth engine for the US economy, with positive spillovers to industrial real estate, private credit and nationwide employment.

Related Articles:

  • What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds — The US imports roughly 40% of the goods it consumes, directly and through imported inputs, with labor-intensive goods like apparel almost entirely imported. The authors argue America's main comparative disadvantage is its cost of production, driven mainly by labor costs, with real estate costs and a strong dollar also contributing.
  • America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1 — Building an identical robotic arm in the US costs about 2.2x more than in China, and US-labeled components still depend heavily on Chinese parts and materials with no scalable alternative. The author argues China is the only country positioned to capture full-scale intelligent robotic automation, which would let it outcompete the US across production.
  • Capital Is Making a Comeback — Tangible investment in property, factories and equipment fell from 12.5% to 8.5% of private gross domestic product, while intangible investment in intellectual property, software and process knowledge rose from about 11.5% to 16.75%. The author argues demand for tangible capital investment will now have to rise.

AI Summary. China placed five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean on its sanctions list under its anti-foreign sanctions law, alleging they cooperated with American efforts to impose punitive fees on Chinese vessels. China's commerce ministry described the move as part of a broader probe into entities assisting US actions against Chinese shipbuilding dominance.

Joe Leahy and Christian Davies Financial Times
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China has sanctioned South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha for allegedly cooperating with new American fees on Chinese vessels sailing to US ports. Hanwha recently purchased the Philadelphia Shipyard and has secured work on American naval vessels in Korea.

Is China sanctioning foreign shipbuilders that assist US actions against its shipyards?

Core argument: China sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean under its anti-foreign sanctions law, sending Hanwha's shares down as much as 8%.

China has added five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean to its sanctions list for allegedly co-operating with American efforts to impose punitive fees on Chinese vessels that took effect on [October 14th]. Beijing said the measures against the South Korean companies were part of a wider probe into entities that have allegedly assisted US actions against China’s dominance of global shipbuilding. China’s ministry of commerce said on [October 14th] it had enacted its anti-foreign sanctions law against Hanwha’s US units, sending the Korean group’s shares down as much as 8%. Hanwha last year acquired the Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia as part of its plan to enter the US shipbuilding market. It was also the first Korean shipbuilder to secure contracts for maintenance, repair and overhaul work on American naval vessels in South Korea.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean under its anti-foreign sanctions law, sending Hanwha's shares down as much as 8%.
  2. China's ministry of commerce alleged the Hanwha units co-operated with US efforts to impose punitive fees on Chinese vessels, part of a wider probe into entities said to have assisted US actions against China's shipbuilding dominance.
  3. Hanwha acquired the Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia as part of its plan to enter the US shipbuilding market and was the first Korean shipbuilder to win maintenance, repair and overhaul contracts for American naval vessels in South Korea.

Related Articles:

  • How South Korea’s Shipyards Could Save the US Navy — US shipyards had just five commercial ships under construction compared with 1,749 in China, and China's naval fleet is projected to grow from 370 to 475 vessels in a decade versus 297 to between 305 and 317 for the US Navy, whose major shipbuilding programs are behind schedule.
  • How China Became the World’s Biggest Shipbuilder — China is the world's largest shipbuilder, building 50.8m of the 89m deadweight tons of commercial ships produced in 2024 (57%) and holding 59% of new ship orders, aided by an estimated $90bn in government subsidies covering 15-20% of each new ship's cost. China still lags in the most complex ships, shipyard productivity, and marine components such as engines.
  • Ship Wars — Shipyards tied to China's defense industrial base account for 15% of the country's active shipyards but 40% of commercial output by tonnage, with over 75% of their production built for firms outside China and Hong Kong. The authors argue these commercial revenues offset fixed costs and effectively subsidize China's naval expansion.

AI Summary. China's internet regulator has launched a campaign to remove online content that incites "excessively pessimistic sentiment," panic, or defeatist ideas such as "hard work is useless." Authorities have punished bloggers who advocated working less, an influencer who said forgoing marriage and children made financial sense, and a commentator who said China's quality of life lags Western countries.

Lily Kuo New York Times
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China has launched a crackdown on content that incites “excessively pessimistic sentiment,” such as “defeatist” ideas like “hard work is useless” in the Chinese system or questioning the value of marriage.

Is China censoring online expressions of pessimism about work and life?

Core argument: The Cyberspace Administration of China launched a campaign to purge online content inciting "excessively pessimistic sentiment" and panic or promoting defeatist ideas such as "hard work is useless," according to an agency notice.

[In late September, the] Cyberspace Administration of China [launched a campaign] aimed at purging content that incites “excessively pessimistic sentiment” and panic or promotes defeatist ideas such as “hard work is useless,” according to a notice from the agency. “In reality, we all experience fatigue and anxiety as a result of work and life, but these real emotions deserve respect and should not be deliberately amplified for traffic. The internet is not a dumping ground for negativity,” China’s state broadcaster CCTV said in an editorial about the campaign. The authorities have punished two bloggers who advocated for a life of less work and less pressure; an influencer who said that it made financial sense not to marry and have children; and a commentator known for bluntly observing that China still lags behind Western countries in terms of quality of life.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Cyberspace Administration of China launched a campaign to purge online content inciting "excessively pessimistic sentiment" and panic or promoting defeatist ideas such as "hard work is useless," according to an agency notice.
  2. Chinese authorities punished two bloggers who advocated less work and less pressure, an influencer who said forgoing marriage and children made financial sense, and a commentator who observed that China lags Western countries in quality of life.
  3. State broadcaster CCTV wrote in an editorial on the campaign that fatigue and anxiety from work and life deserve respect but should not be deliberately amplified for traffic, adding that "the internet is not a dumping ground for negativity.".

Related Articles:

  • China’s Youth Unemployment Soars To 2-Year High As Job Crunch Deepens — China's urban unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds excluding students rose to 18.9% from 17.8%, the highest since the National Bureau of Statistics revised its calculation method for the series. A record 12.2m university students graduated into a job market strained by deflationary pressures and external uncertainties, with many struggling to find roles matching their education and skills.
  • The Sinister Disppearances Of China’s Bosses — China's liuzhi detention system operates alongside normal policing, requiring no court approval and denying detainees lawyers, with windowless cells, constant lighting and round-the-clock supervision. Stock-exchange filings show 39 executives at listed companies disappearing into the system by the end of September, exceeding the prior year's record.
  • China’s Age Of Malaise — More than 300,000 Chinese people emigrated in a single year, more than double the pace of a decade earlier, with some traveling overland through a half-dozen countries to reach the US. US authorities at the southern border recorded 17,894 encounters with Chinese migrants over ten months, a thirteenfold increase from the prior year.

Thursday, October 16, 2025

AI Summary. Using a standard price index, US men's earnings were flat from 1973 to 1989 and rose 0.4% a year thereafter, while an alternative middle-class cost-of-living index shows 0.7% annual growth in both periods and a 40% total rise instead of 13%. The author attributes weak growth to 1970s stagflation and early-1980s recessions rather than trade, immigration, or income concentration.

Scott Winship American Enterprise Institute
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Adjusting earnings with the relatively standard PCEPI deflator, Winship finds that real earnings of year-round male workers aged 15+ were flat from 1973–79, but grew 13% from 1989–2023. With his experimental MACPI deflator, they grew 40% over 1973–2023.

How much have middle-class men's earnings grown over fifty years?

Core argument: Deflated by the PCE price index, men's earnings were flat over the 16 years from 1973 to 1989 and rose 0.4% per year over the 34 years from 1989 to 2023.

As shown in Table 2, during the 16 years from 1973 to 1989, men’s earnings [deflated by the relatively standard PCEPI] were flat, but during the 34 years from 1989 to 2023, they rose by 0.4% per year. The biggest problem for men over the past 50 years was a period of stagnation or decline that ended 40 years ago, with 1983 marking its low point. While the economy was underperforming for a stretch, that period has receded into the distant past, and things are on the upswing. Explanations for why growth wasn’t stronger have less to do with the China Shock, immigration, the global financial crisis, the Great Recession, or rising income concentration than they do with the stagflation of the 1970s and the deep recessions of the early 1980s. When we use the [more experimental] MACPI [which focuses on a basket of goods that Winship regards as more representative of those purchased by the middle class] to adjust for the rise in the cost of living, instead of rising by 13%, male year-round workers’ earnings rose by 40%. Men’s earnings rose 0.7% per year from 1973 to 1989 and 0.7% per year from 1989 to 2023.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Deflated by the PCE price index, men's earnings were flat over the 16 years from 1973 to 1989 and rose 0.4% per year over the 34 years from 1989 to 2023.
  2. Using the more experimental MACPI, a basket Winship regards as more representative of middle-class purchases, male year-round workers' earnings rose 40% rather than 13%, gaining 0.7% per year in both 1973–1989 and 1989–2023.
  3. Winship attributes weaker male earnings growth over the past 50 years to the stagflation of the 1970s and the deep recessions of the early 1980s, with 1983 the low point, rather than the China Shock, immigration, the financial crisis, or rising income concentration.

Related Articles:

  • The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated — Using an alternative cost-of-living adjustment, the typical 40-year-old's pre-tax family income rose 52% between 1979 and 2019, or 73% adjusting for family size, versus 15% under the methods behind widely cited mobility estimates. Absolute mobility is down 20 percentage points since 1979 but stood at 72% in 2023.
  • Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans’ “Lyin’” Eyes? The Answer Is Yes — Gallup polling finds that while roughly 80% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, about 80% are satisfied with the way things are going in their own lives, including 90% satisfied with family life, 88% with housing, and 87% each with education and work.
  • Income in the United States: 2024 — U.S. median household income was $83,730, not statistically different from the prior year's $82,690, according to Census Bureau estimates. Across most demographic subgroups, median household income was higher or not statistically different from the prior year, with the exception of Black households, which saw a decline.

AI Summary. The International Energy Agency reports China is investing twice as much as the US in power plants, storage and the grid, and China added about 429 gigawatts of new generation in a year versus roughly 50 gigawatts in the US. US high-voltage transmission additions have fallen below earlier five-year averages.

Jennifer Hiller Wall Street Journal
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The US built 888 miles of new high-voltage transmission lines in 2024, less than the 2015–2019 mean of 900 miles and the 2009–2014 mean of 1,700 miles.

Is China outpacing the US in power generation and grid investment?

Core argument: China added about 429 gigawatts of new power generation last year versus about 50 gigawatts in the U.S., according to Climate Energy Finance, and will invest twice as much as the U.S. this year in power plants, storage and the grid, per the International Energy Agency.

China will invest twice as much as the U.S. this year in power plants, storage and the grid, according to the International Energy Agency. It added about 429 gigawatts of new power generation last year, according to the think tank Climate Energy Finance, while the U.S. built about 50 gigawatts. ICF [a consultancy] forecasts the U.S. will deliver almost 80 gigawatts of new generation starting in 2027, doubling the average pace of the past five years. [US] transmission construction has bogged down. The U.S. added 888 miles of new high-voltage transmission lines last year, and 450 miles the year before, according to a report from Grid Strategies. That’s down from an average of more than 900 miles a year between 2015 and 2019, and more than 1,700 miles a year on average for the five-year period before that.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China added about 429 gigawatts of new power generation last year versus about 50 gigawatts in the U.S., according to Climate Energy Finance, and will invest twice as much as the U.S. this year in power plants, storage and the grid, per the International Energy Agency.
  2. The consultancy ICF forecasts the U.S. will deliver almost 80 gigawatts of new generation starting in 2027, double the average pace of the past five years.
  3. The U.S. added 888 miles of new high-voltage transmission lines last year and 450 miles the year before, down from an average above 900 miles a year in 2015–2019 and more than 1,700 miles a year in the prior five years, according to Grid Strategies.

Related Articles:

  • How A Power Shortage Could Short-Circuit Nvidia’s Rise — Analysts estimate Nvidia will sell roughly 6m Blackwell and 5.5m GB chips over a two-year span, and that if half are installed and run at capacity in America they would add 25GW to power demand. Bernstein projects a US shortfall of 17–62GW by 2030 depending on chip efficiency; Morgan Stanley puts the gap at 45GW by 2028.
  • The Real China Model — China generates more electricity annually than the United States and European Union combined, having added capacity equivalent to the United Kingdom's total supply each year. Electricity makes up nearly 30% of China's energy use, versus 22% in the US and 21% globally, and its share is growing about 6% a year.
  • Heliocentrism — An energy use must be electrified before green grid electricity can decarbonize it, and while US grid decarbonization continues at a steady pace, the electricity share of final US energy consumption has grown little. Transmission line growth runs well below Department of Energy targets for 2030 and 2035, and transformer delivery times have stretched from 4–6 weeks to 2–3 years.

AI Summary. China expanded its rare earth export controls to require licenses for any product containing more than 0.1% by value of Chinese rare earths or made with equipment containing them, with a presumption of denial for military uses and scrutiny of advanced semiconductor uses. Aggressive enforcement would affect industries from chips and autos to aerospace, defense and medical equipment.

Michael Cembalest JP Morgan
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The US imports 80 to 100% of critical minerals, of which 50 to 100% come from China. If new Chinese controls on mineral exports remain in place, Cembalest argues, “the eventual impact on US military, industrial and renewable energy output would be huge.”

How far do China's expanded rare earth export controls reach?

Core argument: China requires export licenses for any product containing more than 0.1% in value of Chinese rare earths, or made using equipment containing Chinese rare earths or related magnets.

China broadened the scope of its rare earth export controls to require licenses for any product containing more than 0.1% in value of Chinese rare earths, or manufactured using equipment containing Chinese rare earths or related magnets. The regulations include a presumption of denial for military end-uses and close scrutiny on uses related to high-end semiconductor production. The new rules expand the number of specific rare earth minerals covered and also limit the export of rare earth mining and manufacturing equipment from China. China's new rare earth rules match what the US has imposed for high end chips and semiconductor production equipment: a "foreign direct product rule" that controls not only direct exports of a targeted product, but other countries' exports that embed that product. If these controls are aggressively implemented by China, the impacts would be felt in semiconductor, automotive, consumer electronics, aerospace, defense, robotics, medical imaging, medical equipment and telecommunications industries.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China requires export licenses for any product containing more than 0.1% in value of Chinese rare earths, or made using equipment containing Chinese rare earths or related magnets.
  2. China's rules carry a presumption of denial for military end-uses and close scrutiny of uses tied to high-end semiconductor production, while expanding the list of covered rare earth minerals and limiting exports of rare earth mining and manufacturing equipment.
  3. China's rare earth rules match the US "foreign direct product rule" for high-end chips and semiconductor production equipment, and aggressive implementation would affect semiconductor, automotive, consumer electronics, aerospace, defense, robotics, medical imaging, medical equipment and telecommunications industries.

Related Articles:

  • China Cracks Down On Foreign Companies Stockpiling Rare Earths — China is warning foreign buyers of rare earths and derived products such as magnets that building large inventories will bring supply restrictions, and is limiting approved export volumes to prevent stockpiling, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • China’s Weaponisation of Rare Earths is a New Kind of Trade War — China's export controls on rare earth materials and magnets threatened to halt production across the auto industry, the largest manufacturing sector in most advanced economies, and forced Washington to negotiate on tariffs. Despite China's well-known dominance of rare earth production, Western governments and companies have not developed alternative suppliers.
  • Pentagon Steps Up Stockpiling Of Critical Minerals With $1bn Buying Spree — The US Defense Logistics Agency has signaled plans to buy up to $500m of cobalt, $245m of antimony, $100m of tantalum and a combined $45m of scandium for its critical minerals stockpile, valued at $1.3bn. Stockpiled materials can be released only by the president in declared war or when deemed necessary for national defense.

AI Summary. The Dutch government took control of chipmaker Nexperia under a Cold War-era law on access to essential products after US officials said replacing its Chinese chief executive was almost certainly required to keep the company off a US sanctions list. The CEO was suspended and replaced by its European finance chief.

Patrick Van Oosterom and Charlotte Hughes-Morgan Bloomberg
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The Dutch government has taken control of chipmaker Nexperia over American and Dutch concerns that the firm was unable to act independently of its Chinese parent company Wingtech, which acquired Nexperia in 2019.

Did US sanctions pressure drive a government takeover of a Chinese-owned chipmaker?

Core argument: The Dutch government seized control of chipmaker Nexperia after US officials warned in a June meeting that "it is almost certain that the CEO will have to be replaced to qualify for the exemption from the entity list.".

The Dutch government’s unprecedented move to seize control of Nexperia followed a US warning that the chipmaker would have to replace its Chinese chief executive officer to stay off a list of sanctioned companies. US officials told the Dutch government in a meeting in June that “it is almost certain that the CEO will have to be replaced to qualify for the exemption from the entity list,” according to a record of the proceedings released in a Dutch court ruling. The ruling detailed the arguments for the government takeover. Concerns around Nexperia’s governance culminated with the Dutch state taking over Nexperia via a Cold War-era law designed to shore up access to essential products in an emergency. Nexperia’s CEO and Wingtech’s founder, Zhang Xuezheng, was suspended and replaced with his European chief financial officer.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Dutch government seized control of chipmaker Nexperia after US officials warned in a June meeting that "it is almost certain that the CEO will have to be replaced to qualify for the exemption from the entity list.".
  2. The Netherlands took over Nexperia using a Cold War-era law designed to shore up access to essential products in an emergency, with a Dutch court ruling detailing the arguments for the takeover.
  3. Nexperia CEO and Wingtech founder Zhang Xuezheng was suspended and replaced by the company's European chief financial officer, following concerns over Nexperia's governance.

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AI Summary. The Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey found the violent crime rate in urban areas rose 61% over five years, while smaller increases in suburban (4%) and rural (2%) areas were not statistically significant. Urban violent crime ended 46% above the national rate and 104% above the rural rate.

Jeffrey Anderson Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
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The rate of violent crime in urban areas increased 61% between 2019 and 2024, compared to increases of just 4% in suburban areas and 2% in rural areas over that period, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey.

Has violent crime risen in cities but not suburbs and rural areas?

Core argument: The Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey finds the rate of violent crime in urban areas rose 61% from 2019 to 2024, with the increase confined to cities.

Newly released results from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey [find] that the rate of violent crime in urban areas increased by 61% from 2019 to 2024. That crime spike was found only in cities. In suburban and rural areas, the observed increase in violent crime over that same span—4% and 2%, respectively—wasn’t statistically significant. In 2019, before George Floyd, pandemic closures and the defund-the-police movement, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was roughly identical to the rate nationwide. In 2024, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was 46% higher than the nationwide rate and 104% higher—more than double—the rural rate.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey finds the rate of violent crime in urban areas rose 61% from 2019 to 2024, with the increase confined to cities.
  2. Suburban and rural violent crime rose 4% and 2% respectively from 2019 to 2024, increases that were not statistically significant in the National Crime Victimization Survey.
  3. The urban violent crime rate was roughly identical to the nationwide rate in 2019 but by 2024 stood 46% above the nationwide rate and 104% above the rural rate.

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  • How Many Are Criminals — In the United States, between one in four and one in three Black men eventually serve prison time, compared with one in seven Hispanic men and roughly one in fifteen non-Hispanic white men. In Denmark, about 9% of men of Danish origin and 27% of men of non-Western origin have a criminal conviction by age 24.
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