Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, October 1, 2025

AI Summary. Gold prices rose 16% following a Federal Reserve speech signaling further interest-rate easing, after months of flat prices. The dollar remained stable against other major currencies during the rally, suggesting a flight out of major currencies generally amid fears of inflation and currency debasement rather than out of the dollar specifically.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Since Powell’s Jackson speech, gold has risen 16% while the dollar has remained stable against G10 currencies in a broad debasement of advanced economies’ currencies relative to gold.

Is rising gold a flight out of all major currencies?

Core argument: Gold prices are up 16% since Chair Powell's dovish August 22 Jackson Hole speech, after treading water for months beforehand, with that speech giving the "all-clear" for further Fed easing playing a major role.

Let’s review what we know about the recent move in gold prices. First, there’s an obvious catalyst, which is Chair Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. Gold prices are up a stunning 16% since then, after treading water for months in the run-up to that event. Clearly, that speech - which gave the “all-clear” for further Fed easing - plays a major role in the recent gold rally. Second, as the orange line in the chart above shows, the Dollar against its G10 peers has been stable after Jackson Hole, even as gold rose sharply (white line), which means the latest rally in gold isn’t about a flight out of the Dollar. It looks more like it’s a flight out of all G10 currencies, as fears of inflation and currency debasement grow. That’s consistent with the recent rise in very long-term yields.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Gold prices are up 16% since Chair Powell's dovish August 22 Jackson Hole speech, after treading water for months beforehand, with that speech giving the "all-clear" for further Fed easing playing a major role.
  2. The Dollar has been stable against its G10 peers since Jackson Hole even as gold rose sharply, which means the gold rally is not a flight out of the Dollar.
  3. The gold rally looks more like a flight out of all G10 currencies as fears of inflation and currency debasement grow, consistent with the recent rise in very long-term yields.

Related Articles:

  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.
  • Gold Surpasses Inflation-Adjusted Record High Set in 1980 — Gold's spot price reached an all-time high of $3,674.27 an ounce, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak set when gold topped out at $850 in January 1980. That earlier peak came amid a collapsing US currency, an inflation spike, and a recession.
  • How A Global Debt Crisis Starts — Far-forward government bond yields — what markets price for the 10-year yield 10 and 20 years ahead — have risen in Japan, the UK, France and Germany, with Japan's 10-year yield 20 years forward at 4.5%. The US 10y20y forward yield has fallen slightly, which the author attributes to safe-haven inflows.

AI Summary. The dissimilarity in occupational mix between recent college graduates aged 20-24 and older workers aged 25-34 has increased slightly faster than in an earlier period, a pattern the authors say could reflect generative AI's effect on early-career employment or simply a slowing labor market. The authors caution that small sample sizes limit the findings.

Martha Gimbel, Molly Kinder, Joshua Kendall, and Maddie Lee Yale University
Date Posted:
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The recent rise in a dissimilarity index of the occupational mix between college graduates aged 20 to 24 and those aged 25 to 34 suggests a possible impact of AI on early career workers.

Is AI shifting the jobs recent college graduates hold?

Core argument: The dissimilarity in occupational mix between recent college graduates aged 20–24 and older workers aged 25–34 has increased slightly faster in recent months than in a previous period, which the authors describe as a possible impact of AI on early-career employment.

Figure 9 compares the occupational mix for recent college graduates (ages 20-24) to that of their older counterparts (ages 25-34). If generative AI were in fact substantially changing the labor market for recent college graduates, we would expect to see a growing dissimilarity in the occupational mix between these two groups. The dissimilarity has increased slightly faster in recent months than it did in a previous time period, showing a possible impact of AI on employment of early career workers. It could also simply reflect a slowing labor market. However, our results should be interpreted with caution particularly given small sample sizes.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The dissimilarity in occupational mix between recent college graduates aged 20–24 and older workers aged 25–34 has increased slightly faster in recent months than in a previous period, which the authors describe as a possible impact of AI on early-career employment.
  2. The faster-rising dissimilarity in occupational mix could also simply reflect a slowing labor market, according to the authors.
  3. The authors caution that their results on the occupational mix of recent college graduates should be interpreted carefully given small sample sizes.

Related Articles:

  • AI and Jobs: The Final Word (Until the Next One) — Unemployment has risen by 0.30 percentage points for the fifth of workers most exposed to artificial intelligence, compared with 0.94 percentage points for the least exposed fifth, leaving no visible AI effect on jobs. The share of workers leaving the labor force within a year is lowest among the most AI-exposed workers and roughly flat.
  • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence — Using payroll records covering millions of US workers, the authors find employment for workers aged 22–25 in occupations most exposed to artificial intelligence, such as software developers and customer service representatives, declined 6%, while employment for older workers in those occupations rose 6–9%. Employment in less-exposed occupations grew comparably across age groups.
  • Shorting the AI Jobs Apocalypse — Employment for workers aged 22-25 and 26-30 has declined relative to its pre-ChatGPT trend and relative to older workers in the same occupation, but the age groups shown are not equally sized. The authors argue that combining all age groups shows software developer jobs have continued to grow overall.

AI Summary. The correlation between changes in the goods share of production and the net export share is weak (-0.22), while net exports track the federal budget balance more closely (0.42). The author argues federal deficits support consumer spending on services and imported goods and are partly financed by foreign savings.

Mark Warshawsky American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
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Linking the decline in the share of US output devoted to goods rather than services to the twin budget and trade deficits, Warshawsky stresses the role of the budget deficit in financing the expansion of the low-productivity-growth healthcare sector.

Do federal budget deficits explain trade deficits better than declining goods production?

Core argument: The correlation coefficient between the change in the US goods share and the net export share is -0.22, a weak link whose timing of significant changes is mostly off.

One sees only a rough connection between the decline in goods production and net exports (the correlation coefficient between the change in the goods share and the net export share is -0.22)—the timing of the significant changes is mostly off, and correlation is weak. By contrast, one can see a stronger relationship between net exports and the federal budget balance, where the correlation coefficient is 0.42. Although correlation is not necessarily causation, the latter relationship can be explained as follows. The growing federal deficit supports consumer spending, including on expensive services and, increasingly, imported goods. In addition, the deficit is partially financed by foreign savings, which results from excess goods production and income relative to domestic demand in foreign countries- that is, positive net exports abroad and net imports here in the US. The deficit increases with the growing share of the health care sector, as relative prices for health care rise and the federal government takes on more and more of the responsibility for health spending through Medicare, Medicaid, veterans care, and the insurance exchanges. Indeed, the share of federal spending devoted to health care increased from 2% in 1950 to 25% in 2024.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The correlation coefficient between the change in the US goods share and the net export share is -0.22, a weak link whose timing of significant changes is mostly off.
  2. The correlation coefficient between US net exports and the federal budget balance is 0.42, a stronger relationship than the goods-production link, though correlation is not necessarily causation.
  3. The share of US federal spending devoted to health care rose from 2% in 1950 to 25% in 2024, as relative health care prices rise and the federal government assumes more health spending through Medicare, Medicaid, veterans care, and the insurance exchanges.

Related Articles:

  • Rapidly Growing Treasury Supply Crowding Out Other Types of Credit Growth — Roughly half of all fixed income issuance coming to market over the past year has been US Treasuries, meaning investors must allocate a growing share of dollars to financing the government. The argument is that lower government debt would free up more funds for consumer borrowing and business investment.
  • Larry Summers and Bob Rubin Join Our CIOs to Discuss the Surprising Economic Cycle — Adopting the Simpson-Bowles fiscal consolidation when interest rates were at zero would have risked excessive disinflation, since long rates had no room to fall to provide an offsetting expansionary impulse. After the large run-up in debt and rise in real interest rates, the developing fiscal situation risks inflationary pressure, Treasury market disruption, or crowding out of private investment.
  • How America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing The Rest Of The Economy — About a sixth of America's 2% real GDP growth over the past year came from investment in computer and communications equipment and data centres, and one estimate puts the artificial intelligence boom's total contribution to growth at 40%. Average electricity bills rose 7%, attributed in part to data-centre demand, while housebuilding and non-AI business investment slumped and real consumption flatlined.

AI Summary. Borrowers aged 50 to 61 hold the highest average student-loan balance of any age group at $47,857, and borrowers 50 and older are more likely than other age groups to be seriously delinquent, according to Federal Student Aid and Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

Oyin Adedoyin Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

There is currently $1.66T of outstanding Federal student loan debt. The 6mm borrowers aged 50 to 61 who still have Federal student loans outstanding have a mean balance of $47,857, the highest of any age cohort.

Do older borrowers carry the largest student-loan balances and delinquency rates?

Core argument: Student-loan borrowers aged 50 to 61, numbering more than six million, carry the highest average balance of any age group at $47,857, according to Federal Student Aid data.

Gen X is barreling toward retirement with an excruciating student-loan burden. The six million-plus borrowers aged 50 to 61 have the highest average balance of any age group, at $47,857, according to Federal Student Aid data. Now, as parents and grandparents, they are passing along a skepticism toward higher education and its hefty price tag, part of the broader unraveling of America’s “college for all” ideology. About five million of the 44.7 million student-loan borrowers [all ages] are more than 90 days past due, according to Federal Student Aid data. Borrowers who are 50 and older are more likely than other age groups to be seriously delinquent on their loans, according to the New York Fed.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Student-loan borrowers aged 50 to 61, numbering more than six million, carry the highest average balance of any age group at $47,857, according to Federal Student Aid data.
  2. About five million of the 44.7 million student-loan borrowers of all ages are more than 90 days past due, according to Federal Student Aid data, and the New York Fed finds borrowers 50 and older are more likely than other age groups to be seriously delinquent.
  3. Gen X borrowers, now parents and grandparents, are passing along skepticism toward higher education and its price tag, part of the broader unraveling of America's "college for all" ideology.

Related Articles:

  • Learning with Their Feet — US undergraduate enrollment in degree- or certificate-seeking programs fell from 17.3m to 14.1m, a drop of nearly 20%, but the declines were concentrated in lower-quality institutions. Enrollment changes are strongly associated with measured student outcomes such as completion rates, loan repayment, and post-enrollment earnings, with the worst-performing quintile losing nearly half its enrollment.
  • What Went Wrong with Federal Student Loans? — Weakened regulations on institutions enrolling aid-dependent students led to rising enrollment of disadvantaged students, but primarily at low-value institutions where loan performance deteriorated. Institutions in the lowest loan-repayment quintile had a 23% completion rate, $27,760 average post-enrollment earnings, and 20% default rates, versus 73%, $48,375, and 3% at the highest.
  • Debt Payments and Spending: Evidence from the 2023 Student Loan Payment Restart — The authors estimate that resuming required student loan payments cut household spending by $630 a year for every $10,000 in student debt, implying annualized cutbacks of $1,590 for the median borrower and $2,980 for the mean. With about $1.25tn of eligible student debt, they estimate an aggregate spending reduction of $20bn, roughly 0.3% of GDP.

AI Summary. A U.S. military showcase of autonomous weapons acquired under the Pentagon's Replicator program revealed systems that were not ready for operational use. An unmanned boat suffered a rudder failure and drifted away, an aerial drone launch was delayed over a possible problem with its launch tubes, and onboard software misidentified or failed to identify objects.

Shelby Holliday, Heather Somerville, and Brenna Smith Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Management of DoD’s Replicator program, an effort to deploy low-cost autonomous weapons at scale in the western-Pacific, is being shifted to a new Defense Autonomous Warfare Group in an effort to accelerate the program.

Are the military's newly acquired autonomous weapons ready for operational use?

Core argument: At an August California showcase of Replicator-acquired systems, a BlackSea Technologies unmanned boat suffered a rudder failure and drifted away, while the launch of an Anduril Industries aerial drone was delayed over a potential launch-tube problem.

Replicator is now being overseen by the vice commander of Special Operations Command, Lt. Gen. Frank Donovan. In August, as he was taking over the program, Donovan attended part of an event in California that was supposed to showcase some of the whiz-bang technology Replicator had acquired—but also highlighted that the systems weren’t ready for prime time. An unmanned boat made by BlackSea Technologies experienced a rudder failure and drifted away. The launch of an aerial drone made by Anduril Industries was delayed due to a potential problem with the launch tubes. And the software running on several boats misidentified or failed to identify objects as expected. “There were very, very good things that happened from Replicator,” said Anduril’s founder Palmer Luckey. “Could it have been done better? Could it have been more clear about what exactly they were doing? Yes, of course. But big picture, I don’t think it was that bad.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. At an August California showcase of Replicator-acquired systems, a BlackSea Technologies unmanned boat suffered a rudder failure and drifted away, while the launch of an Anduril Industries aerial drone was delayed over a potential launch-tube problem.
  2. Software running on several boats at the Replicator showcase misidentified or failed to identify objects as expected.
  3. Replicator is overseen by Lt. Gen. Frank Donovan, vice commander of Special Operations Command, who attended part of the August showcase as he took over the program.

Related Articles:

  • Why Every Country Needs To Master The Electric Tech Stack — Drones are the foundation of hard power in the early 21st century, so a country unable to produce them domestically is at a disadvantage. As electric motors overtake combustion engines as the core technology that makes machines move, the same supply chains and production processes used for electronics can also produce cars, drones, robots, and appliances.
  • Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any — China's DJI accounts for about 70% of commercial drones sold globally, and industry experts estimate its output far exceeds that of any other manufacturer, with capacity in the millions of drones a year. About 500 US companies manufacture drones, producing fewer than 100,000 annually, according to an industry association.
  • The New Frontier for Drone Warfare Is Deep Underwater — New underwater drones can dive thousands of feet and operate for days with little human intervention, which advocates say suits them to intelligence gathering, protecting undersea infrastructure, and countering threats in the Pacific. Boeing is delivering five 85-foot Orca vehicles to the US Navy, and Australia is developing Ghost Shark with Anduril.

Thursday, October 2, 2025

AI Summary. JPMorgan analysts estimate that the Federal Reserve's Treasury holdings have fallen $180bn as it pursues quantitative tightening, while commercial banks' holdings are down $60bn and foreign official holdings down $50bn. The analysts describe simultaneous negative demand from all three buyer types as rare and say they remain concerned about the lack of structural demand for Treasuries.

Tracy Alloway Bloomberg
Date Posted:

JPM estimates that since the start of the year, the Fed’s treasury holdings dropped $180B and commercial banks’ holdings have decreased by $60B. Foreign official holdings fell by $50B over the last 6 months on a rolling basis, according to the analysis.

Is structural demand for Treasuries falling across all major buyers?

Core argument: JPMorgan's Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy estimate the Federal Reserve's Treasury holdings have fallen $180bn year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening.

Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy estimate that the Fed’s Treasury holdings have dropped by $180 billion year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, commercial banks’ collective holdings of Treasuries have fallen by $60 billion this year, after growing more than $700 billion in 2020 through 2021. And foreign governments are also stepping back, with official holdings having dropped $50 billion over the past six months. “The reversal in demand has been stunning as it has been rare for demand from each of these three investor types to all be negative at the same time,” the analysts say. [They caution] “We remain concerned about the (lack of) structural demand for Treasuries.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. JPMorgan's Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy estimate the Federal Reserve's Treasury holdings have fallen $180bn year to date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening.
  2. Commercial banks' collective Treasury holdings have fallen $60bn this year, after growing more than $700bn from 2020 through 2021, according to the JPMorgan analysts.
  3. Foreign official holdings of Treasuries have dropped $50bn over the past six months, and Barry and Ramaswamy call the simultaneous reversal in demand across all three investor types stunning and rare, citing concern about the lack of structural demand.

Related Articles:

  • Fiscal Risk from Rising Bond Yields — US interest rates fell for roughly 40 years before the pandemic, allowing maturing high-coupon debt to be refinanced at lower rates and keeping federal interest expense manageable even as debt rose. Because Congressional Budget Office projections assume the 10-year Treasury yield drifts down to 3.8% from about 4.1%, the author argues its debt-service projections face upside risk.
  • Why Microsoft Has Lower Borrowing Costs Than the U.S. — Two AAA-rated Microsoft bonds trade at yields slightly below equivalent U.S. Treasurys, an unusual negative spread given that companies are more likely to default than a government able to tax and that corporate bonds are harder to sell. Demand for high-quality corporate debt has compressed the AAA corporate spread to 0.3 percentage point over Treasurys.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.

AI Summary. The author estimates a US convenience yield by subtracting currency-hedged foreign yields from US Treasury yields, finding it persists at the 1-year maturity but has eroded at 5- and 10-year maturities. The erosion at longer maturities reflects global markets pricing a larger US-specific risk premium.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
Date Posted:

While the dollar’s weakness is likely being driven by the same fiscal deterioration that is spiking long yields in Germany and Japan, the imposition of tariffs had a real impact on the US’s convenience yield relative to other safe havens.

Has the US convenience yield eroded at longer Treasury maturities?

Core argument: The US convenience yield on Treasuries, measured as US yields minus FX-hedged trade-weighted foreign yields, remains in place at the 1-year tenor but has eroded at the 5- and 10-year tenors in annual averages from 2007 to 2025.

The left chart above calculates the convenience yield on US Treasuries at 1-, 5- and 10-year tenors. The way I do this is to subtract from US yields the trade-weighted average foreign yield after I’ve used FX forwards of the appropriate tenor to hedge foreign yields back into Dollars. The result is an interest differential, where a positive number means that US yields are below the foreign, $-denominated yield. On a longer horizon - the chart shows annual averages for this differential from 2007 to 2025 - the US convenience yield remains in place for 1-year Treasuries (red line), but has eroded for 5-year (blue line) and 10-year (black line) Treasuries. This difference is no surprise. It’s at longer tenors that risk premia have built and eroded the US convenience yield. The fact that a 1-year convenience yield remains in place is thus of little comfort. The right chart shows exactly the same data but zooms in on daily data starting in January 2024. It shows that the US was in the process of clawing back its convenience yield earlier this year, until the chaos of “Liberation Day” snuffed that out. The 5- and 10-year differentials fell back sharply, a sign that global markets priced a larger US-specific risk premium at longer tenors.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The US convenience yield on Treasuries, measured as US yields minus FX-hedged trade-weighted foreign yields, remains in place at the 1-year tenor but has eroded at the 5- and 10-year tenors in annual averages from 2007 to 2025.
  2. Daily data starting in January 2024 show the US clawing back its convenience yield until "Liberation Day," after which the 5- and 10-year differentials fell back sharply.
  3. The erosion of the US convenience yield at longer tenors is attributed to risk premia building at those tenors, with the post-"Liberation Day" drop read as global markets pricing a larger US-specific risk premium.

Related Articles:

  • The Relentless Rise in Gold Prices — Gold prices rose 16% following a Federal Reserve speech signaling further interest-rate easing, after months of flat prices. The dollar remained stable against other major currencies during the rally, suggesting a flight out of major currencies generally amid fears of inflation and currency debasement rather than out of the dollar specifically.
  • Tariffs, the Dollar, and Equities: High-Frequency Evidence from the Liberation Day Announcement — Following a sweeping US tariff announcement, the dollar's effective exchange rate depreciated rather than appreciating as standard international macroeconomic models predict: all G10 currencies gained against the dollar while the most freely floating emerging market currencies gained less or fell. The authors read this as advanced economies rebalancing away from dollar assets.
  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.

AI Summary. A draft European Union proposal would raise the tariff on steel imports to 50%, up from the current 25% duty applied once quotas are exhausted, and cut the quota volume allowed in before the higher rate applies by nearly half. The move would align the bloc's rate with the 50% US tariff on steel and aluminum.

Alberto Nardelli Bloomberg
Date Posted:

The EU is planning on hiking tariffs on steel imports to 50%, matching the US’s current rate. The bloc is hoping to negotiate a lower rate with the US while fending off cheap Chinese imports.

Is the EU doubling its steel tariff to match US rates?

Core argument: The European Union plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50%, up from the 25% duty applied once quotas are exhausted, and cut by nearly half the volume allowed in before the higher rate applies, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg.

The European Union plans to hike tariffs on steel imports to 50% and cut by nearly a half the volume of steel that’s allowed in before that higher rate is imposed, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg. The EU currently has a temporary mechanism in place to safeguard its steel industry, which imposes a 25% duty on most imports once quotas are exhausted. That mechanism expires in June and the EU has been working to replace it with a more permanent regulation, which it plans to unveil next week. The bloc’s steel industry has faced a severe crisis in recent years as it grapples with cheap imports from China and other Asian economies. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% shortly after taking office. Separately, the EU is hoping to negotiate arrangements with the Trump administration that would lower the 50% rates the bloc’s steel and aluminium exports to the US currently face. The move will align the bloc’s rate with the US, which has sought to push back against overcapacity from China.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The European Union plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50%, up from the 25% duty applied once quotas are exhausted, and cut by nearly half the volume allowed in before the higher rate applies, according to a draft proposal seen by Bloomberg.
  2. The European Union's temporary steel safeguard mechanism expires in June, and the bloc plans to unveil a more permanent replacement regulation that would align its rate with the 50% US tariff on steel and aluminum imports.
  3. The European Union is seeking arrangements with the Trump administration to lower the 50% rates its steel and aluminium exports to the US face, while its steel industry grapples with cheap imports from China and other Asian economies.

Related Articles:

  • The Boom in New Steel Mills Is Outpacing Demand — US steelmakers have gained market share from imports but have not prevented prices from slipping amid soft demand from major buyers such as the auto and construction industries. About 21m tons of additional US steel production capacity has been announced, started or completed over four years, roughly a quarter of last year's total US output.
  • Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs — Output per hour in the U.S. steel industry has fallen 32% since 2017, following the imposition of 25% tariffs on steel imports, while output per hour for the economy as a whole rose 15%. U.S. steel-using firms, which employ roughly 45x as many Americans as steel producers, pay about 75% more for steel than global competitors.
  • Underestimating China — China's productive capacity is three times that of the United States and exceeds the next nine countries combined, with its share of global manufacturing quintupling to 30% while the U.S. share halved to about 15%. The authors argue Washington must convert its alliances into a platform for pooled capacity building.

AI Summary. More than 116m Americans use TikTok each month, with 18-to-25-year-olds spending nearly an hour a day scrolling or posting videos. Teenagers spend more time on TikTok than on YouTube and Instagram combined.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

Americans, ages 18–24, spend more than three hours a day on social media; nearly an hour of it on TikTok. More than 116mm Americans use TikTok monthly.

How much of young Americans' attention does TikTok command?

Core argument: More than 116m Americans use TikTok every month, with the app especially popular among young Americans.

More than 116m Americans use TikTok every month. It is particularly popular among young Americans. The most voracious are 18 to 25 year-olds who, in June, spent nearly an hour a day scrolling or posting videos. For teenagers it is the app of choice: they spend more time on TikTok than on YouTube and Instagram combined.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. More than 116m Americans use TikTok every month, with the app especially popular among young Americans.
  2. Americans aged 18 to 25 are TikTok's most voracious users, spending nearly an hour a day in June scrolling or posting videos.
  3. American teenagers spend more time on TikTok than on YouTube and Instagram combined.

Related Articles:

  • Trump Signs TikTok Order With US App Valued at $14 Billion — A US ownership deal for TikTok's American operations values the app at $14bn, with Oracle, Silver Lake Management and Abu Dhabi-based MGX in talks to invest and take board seats. The US entity would lease a copy of ByteDance's algorithm and retrain it under Oracle's oversight, which some US lawmakers doubt satisfies the divestment law.
  • Why the TikTok Era Spells Trouble For The Establishment — Video-first platforms like TikTok and Instagram reward charisma, energy and delivery over being first with news, a shift that favors political outsiders and upstart media outlets less tied to establishment politicians and freer to publish what mainstream outlets would not. Research finds the newest class of news influencers lean slightly right, and even those with other politics are anti-establishment.
  • Teens Used To Be Happier. What Changed? — The share of US high school seniors describing themselves as "very happy" peaked at 24.8% and remained around 24.4% before falling to 11.4% at its low, recovering only to 12.7%, well below the 17.9% recorded before the pandemic. The decline coincided with smartphones and social media becoming pervasive.