Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Friday, May 30, 2025

AI Summary. A proposed US tax provision, Section 899, would raise tax rates on individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems discriminatory, including those imposing digital services taxes on large technology firms. Analysts say the measure, which could raise rates on passive income such as interest and dividends, would further drive away foreign investors.

Ye Xie and Liz Capo McCormick Bloomberg
Date Posted:

A provision in the reconciliation bill to counter digital services taxation of US firms and the global minimum tax, would give Treasury the authority to tax foreign holders of US assets, and could ultimately reduce demand for US securities.

Would retaliatory taxes on foreign investors drive them away from US assets?

Core argument: Section 899, "Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes," would raise tax rates on individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems "discriminatory," including Canada, the UK, France and Australia over their digital services taxes on large technology companies.

Section 899, “Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes” — calls for, among other things, increasing tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems “discriminatory.” Section 899 takes aim at countries including Canada, the UK, France and Australia that impose “digital services taxes” on large technology companies such as Meta. The clause also targets countries using provisions in a multi-country deal for minimum corporate taxes. [899 would allow the US to] raise tax rates on passive income, such as interest and dividends, earned by investors who are potentially sitting on trillions in American assets. Cloaked in technicalities, the implication of the “revenge” measure, as it’s quickly becoming known, is clear to analysts: If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors. The intent of the measure appears similar in spirit to some ideas put forth in November by Stephen Miran chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers while he was still working at hedge fund Hudson Bay Capital. Miran raised the possibility of imposing “user fees” on foreign investors in Treasuries as one option to help push down the dollar and address global trade imbalances.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Section 899, "Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes," would raise tax rates on individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems "discriminatory," including Canada, the UK, France and Australia over their digital services taxes on large technology companies.
  2. Section 899 would let the US raise tax rates on passive income such as interest and dividends earned by foreign investors potentially holding trillions in American assets, which analysts say would further drive away foreign investors.
  3. The measure's intent appears similar in spirit to ideas put forth in November by Stephen Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who raised the possibility of "user fees" on foreign investors in Treasuries to help push down the dollar and address global trade imbalances.

Related Articles:

  • Are Foreigners Selling US Assets? — European and Japanese investors hold roughly 30% and 20% of their fixed income in foreign debt, versus under 10% for US investors, with US bonds making up about 15% of Eurozone and Japanese portfolios. Because foreign investors are less sticky than domestic ones, turmoil in US bond markets has greater potential to unsettle them.
  • The Great European Disentanglement From US Stocks Has Only Just Started — Federal Reserve data show European investors held about $9tn in US stocks, roughly 17% of the total value of the US market. After inflation, a dollar invested in the US at the start of 2000 was worth $3.28 by the end of 2024, versus $1.63 for the rest of the world.
  • A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System — During the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war, the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports rose 17.9 percentage points while the renminbi depreciated 13.7% against the dollar, leaving after-tariff import prices in dollars up just 4.1%. The author argues this currency offset of more than three-fourths of the tariff explains why inflation pressure was negligible.

AI Summary. The cost of insuring US government debt against default is trading at about the same level as for Italy and Greece, which carry BBB+ credit ratings. That market pricing is out of line with the higher Aa1/AA+ ratings assigned to US debt.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

Torsten Sløk notes the US sovereign CDS spread is at ~ the same level of Italy and Greece, which have BBB+ ratings. The Aa1/AA+ ratings currently given to US debt are thus out of line with the market.

Does the market price US default risk below its credit rating?

Core argument: The US sovereign credit default swap spread is trading at roughly the same level as Italy and Greece, both rated BBB+, according to Torsten Sløk.

The US sovereign CDS spread is currently trading at levels similar to countries that are rated BBB+, such as Italy and Greece.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The US sovereign credit default swap spread is trading at roughly the same level as Italy and Greece, both rated BBB+, according to Torsten Sløk.
  2. Torsten Sløk argues the Aa1/AA+ ratings assigned to US debt are out of line with market pricing.

Related Articles:

  • US Fiscal Sustainability Once More — US federal interest payments were projected to rise from 18% of tax revenues to about 22% by 2034 under the Congressional Budget Office's prior baseline. The author estimates that if the yield curve stays at current levels and policy is unchanged, that ratio would exceed 25% by 2032 and approach 30% by 2035.
  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.
  • ‘People Were Getting a Little Yippy’. Or, How Much Trust the US Lost Because of Trumps’ Policies — The cost of insuring against a US government default has surged while the cost for France, Germany, and Italy has remained broadly stable, leaving US debt twice as expensive to insure as Italian debt. Italy is the more indebted country, with public debt around 135% of GDP versus 121% for the US.

AI Summary. The International Monetary Fund projects Saudi Arabia's budget deficit will widen above 4% of GDP, estimating the oil price needed to balance its books at $92 a barrel, with debt at 26% of GDP against a 40% ceiling. Saudi officials plan to maintain spending while reassessing management of development projects.

Andrew England and Ahmed Al Omran Financial Times
Date Posted:
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Since 2022, Saudi Arabia’s budget has switched from surplus to a deficit, now 4% of GDP, which would require a $92bbl oil price – ~50% above its current level – to eliminate without fiscal reforms. Debt/GDP is 26%, well below KSA’s 40% ceiling.

How is Saudi Arabia responding to lower oil prices and widening deficits?

Core argument: The IMF forecasts Saudi Arabia's budget deficit will widen above 4% of GDP this year and next, and estimates Riyadh's break-even oil price at $92 a barrel.

The IMF forecasts the budget deficit will widen above 4% of GDP this year and next, estimating Riyadh’s break-even oil price — the level it needs to balance its books — to be $92 a barrel. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively low at 26%, and Saudi Arabia’s finance minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said he did not see “any reasonable scenario” that “would make us even come close to” the ministry’s ceiling of 40%. Mohammed al-Jadaan told the Financial Times that Riyadh planned to maintain its current pace of government spending — despite widening budget and current account deficits, and rising debt — as it seeks to support ambitious development plans. But he said Saudi Arabia would use the period of lower oil prices, as well as the uncertain global outlook, to evaluate how it managed the vast array of development projects under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s $1tn plans to diversify the economy and boost non-oil growth.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The IMF forecasts Saudi Arabia's budget deficit will widen above 4% of GDP this year and next, and estimates Riyadh's break-even oil price at $92 a barrel.
  2. Saudi finance minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told the Financial Times that Riyadh would maintain its current pace of government spending despite widening budget and current account deficits and rising debt, to support development plans.
  3. Saudi Arabia's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 26% against the finance ministry's 40% ceiling, and Mohammed al-Jadaan said he saw no "reasonable scenario" that would make the kingdom "even come close to" that level.

Related Articles:

  • A Spendthrift Saudi Arabia Can’t Finance the World Anymore — Saudi Arabia has become a net consumer of foreign capital rather than a provider, accumulating $142bn in foreign debt as heavy spending on economic transformation outpaces oil revenue, with its sovereign wealth fund scaling back some projects. Estimates put the oil price needed to balance its budget near $96 a barrel.
  • AI Arrives In The Middle East: US Strikes A Deal with UAE and KSA — U.S. artificial intelligence agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia bypass prior export-control rules, unlocking large-scale Gulf capital for AI infrastructure both in the region and in the United States. The author argues the deals tie both states more closely to American technology and position the energy-rich Gulf as a major AI hub.
  • The Petrodollar Is Dead, Long Live the Petrodollar — Saudi Arabia has no surplus left to recycle and is instead borrowing heavily in sovereign debt markets and selling assets, including stakes in its national oil company, to fund its economic plans. The International Monetary Fund projects the Saudi current account surplus narrowing to 0.5% of GDP before shifting into deficit through the end of the decade.

AI Summary. About half of cars bought in the US are foreign-assembled and directly exposed to auto tariffs, and no popular model exceeds 70% American content once the value of imported parts is counted, with the best-selling Ford F-150 under one-third American. Auto tariffs may prove durable: a 25% tariff on imported trucks has remained in effect for 60 years.

Joseph Politano Apricitas Economics
Date Posted:

There is no such thing as an “all-American” car, as the import content often exceeds 70%. Citing the 25% “chicken tax” on truck imports imposed in 1964, Joseph Politano speculates that car tariffs may prove “more durable than most of Trump’s tariffs.”

How exposed are American car buyers to auto tariffs?

Core argument: Roughly half of cars bought in America are foreign-assembled and directly exposed to Trump's tariffs, while even US-assembled vehicles cannot fully avoid the impact because of embedded foreign parts.

Roughly half of the cars bought in America are foreign-assembled vehicles that will be directly affected by the tariffs, and it’ll be impossible for even US-made vehicles to completely avoid being impacted. That’s purely because there is no such thing as an “all-American” car—among the most popular models last year, none is more than 70% American when you account for the embedded value of foreign parts, and most contain even more imported components than that. Best-selling iconic vehicles like the Ford F-150 are less than a third American. Even this data overstates it—the American and Canadian car industries are so tightly intertwined that the US government doesn’t even try to parse their contributions apart. These car tariffs may prove more durable than most of Trump’s tariffs—the 25% “chicken tax” on imported trucks from 1964 still remains in effect 60 years later, continually limiting Americans’ ability to buy European and Japanese trucks for decades.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Roughly half of cars bought in America are foreign-assembled and directly exposed to Trump's tariffs, while even US-assembled vehicles cannot fully avoid the impact because of embedded foreign parts.
  2. None of the most popular US models last year was more than 70% American once the embedded value of foreign parts is counted, and the Ford F-150 is less than a third American.
  3. The 25% "chicken tax" on imported trucks, enacted in 1964 and still in effect 60 years later, suggests Trump's car tariffs may prove more durable than most of his other tariffs.

Related Articles:

  • Will China Take Over the Global Auto Industry? — The global auto market has historically been regional, with most cars sold in a region also built there. Overcapacity in China's internal combustion sector, expanding electric-vehicle capacity, ample state bank credit, and a weaker yuan could concentrate global auto production in China absent restrictions such as the US 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
  • Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States — The authors find that the combined effect of U.S.-China trade war import tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and farm subsidies on employment in exposed U.S. locations was at best a wash and possibly mildly negative, while residents of tariff-protected areas became less likely to identify as Democrats and more likely to vote Republican.
  • Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs — Output per hour in the U.S. steel industry has fallen 32% since 2017, following the imposition of 25% tariffs on steel imports, while output per hour for the economy as a whole rose 15%. U.S. steel-using firms, which employ roughly 45x as many Americans as steel producers, pay about 75% more for steel than global competitors.

Monday, June 2, 2025

AI Summary. Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.

Nicholas Eberstadt and Patrick Norrick American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
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The US foreign-born population reached 51.4mm, or 15.4% of the population in 2024, Nicholas Eberstad notes, surpassing the prior peak of 14.8% set in 1890.

Has America's foreign-born share risen above its previous historical peak?

Core argument: America's foreign-born population surpassed 50 million for the first time in 2024, according to Current Population Survey estimates.

In 2024, according to CPS estimates, America’s total foreign-born population surpassed the 50 million mark for the first time. No less significant, the CPS series indicates that the foreign-born now exceed 15% of the national population for the first time since such figures were first collected (in the 1850 census). The previous high water mark for percentage of foreign-born was in 1890—during what we might call America’s first wave of mass immigration, when the fraction peaked at 14.8%. The immigration restrictions enacted in the 1920s reflected the deep unpopularity of mass immigration at that time among influential political constituencies. Strong anti-immigration sentiment had been evident in America since at least the 1890s; sweeping national restrictions on immigration were very nearly enacted in 1905. Mass immigration was associated in the contemporary mentality with the widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less skilled native-born men that characterized the First Gilded Age. It is a reminder that stringent curbs on immigration have occurred in the USA before.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. America's foreign-born population surpassed 50 million for the first time in 2024, according to Current Population Survey estimates.
  2. The CPS series indicates the foreign-born now exceed 15% of the U.S. population for the first time since such figures were first collected in the 1850 census, above the prior peak of 14.8% in 1890.
  3. Mass immigration was associated in the contemporary mentality of the First Gilded Age with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions were nearly enacted in 1905 before the 1920s curbs.

Related Articles:

  • Foreign-Born Number and Share of U.S. Population at All-Time Highs in January 2025 — The U.S. foreign-born population reached 53.3m, or 15.8% of the population, the highest level in American history, exceeding the shares recorded in 1890 (14.8%) and 1910 (14.7%) during the "Great Wave" of immigration. A four-year increase of 8.3m is larger than that of any four-year period in American history and exceeds the 7.9m increase over the prior 12 years.
  • U.S. Immigrant Population in 2023 Saw Largest Increase In More Than 20 Years — The U.S. immigrant population rose by about 1.6m to a record 47.8m, the largest single-year increase since 2000, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Immigrants made up 14.3% of the total U.S. population, up from 4.7% in 1970 but below the 1890 record of 14.8%.
  • and — The U.S. immigrant population rose by about 1.6m to a record 47.8m, the largest single-year increase since 2000, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Immigrants made up 14.3% of the total U.S. population, up from 4.7% in 1970 but below the 1890 record of 14.8%.
  • The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 — The U.S. immigrant population rose by about 1.6m to a record 47.8m, the largest single-year increase since 2000, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. Immigrants made up 14.3% of the total U.S. population, up from 4.7% in 1970 but below the 1890 record of 14.8%.

AI Summary. Roughly 250,000 recent graduates work in the U.S. under Optional Practical Training, which lets student-visa holders stay on after finishing studies and could be ended, and about 90% of Chinese-born science and engineering PhDs remain long-term. Tightening student and skilled-worker rules would worsen U.S. failure to retain graduates it trains.

Connor O'Brien Agglomerations
Date Posted:
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Only 37% of international graduates earning BA’s, master’s, or PhD’s btw 2012 and 2021 remain in the US. Roughly 90% of Chinese STEM PhD graduates do remain in the U.S. long-term, though that is subject to changes contemplated by the Dept of State.

Would tighter student visa rules worsen U.S. retention of foreign graduates?

Core argument: Nearly 250,000 recent graduates are working in the U.S. under Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program allowing F-1 visa holders to work after finishing their studies, which may come to an end.

The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows recent graduates on F-1 visas to work in the U.S. after finishing their studies may come to an end. Nearly 250,000 recent graduates are currently working on OPT. Chinese-born graduates are a key source of technical talent for the United States; roughly 90 percent of Chinese STEM PhD graduates remain in the U.S. long-term. However, economic espionage and intellectual property theft linked to the Chinese Communist Party are serious, ongoing concerns. Last week, the State Department announced it would “aggressively revoke” visas for Chinese students, “including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” in addition to revising visa criteria to “enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.” These moves to tighten restrictions on international students and high-skilled workers would worsen one of the biggest problems with America’s immigration system: we fail to keep most students we train.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nearly 250,000 recent graduates are working in the U.S. under Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program allowing F-1 visa holders to work after finishing their studies, which may come to an end.
  2. Roughly 90 percent of Chinese-born STEM PhD graduates remain in the U.S. long-term, making them a key source of technical talent, even as economic espionage and intellectual property theft linked to the Chinese Communist Party remain ongoing concerns.
  3. The State Department announced it would "aggressively revoke" visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields, and enhance scrutiny of all future applications from China and Hong Kong.

Related Articles:

  • Most International Graduates of American Universities Ultimately Leave The U.S. — An analysis of the National Survey of College Graduates finds that only 41% of international students who graduated from American universities between 2012 and 2020 were still living in the country as of 2021, including 17% of bachelor's degree recipients. Scarce visas for skilled workers are cited as one reason.
  • The US Is The World’s Science Superpower — But For How Long? — International students on temporary visas received more than a third of US science and engineering doctorates, including 59% in computer science, with most coming from China and India, and 77% of Chinese doctoral recipients said they intended to stay in the US. The US hosts 15% of the world's international students, down from 23%.
  • Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy — U.S. H-1B visa denial rates rose from about 6% to 16%, and the authors estimate a 10 percentage point rise in denials increases Canadian applications by 30%, roughly one Canadian application per four forgone visas. More exposed Canadian firms increased sales and hired about 0.5 native workers per immigrant.

AI Summary. Italy's official statistics agency reports that nearly 191,000 people left the country in a year, the highest in 25 years, with the share of emigrants holding at least a college degree rising from one in three a decade earlier to half. Italy's working-age population is forecast to fall another 5mn by 2040.

Amy Kazmin and Giuliana Ricozzi Financial Times
Date Posted:

Italy’s population decline is among the most acute in Europe, per Istat, and ~191k people left the country in 2024, the highest level in 25 years. 50% of leavers in 2023 held a college degree, creating “a significant deficit of qualified human capital.”

How is emigration of college graduates deepening Italy's population decline?

Core argument: About 156,000 Italians left Italy in 2024 for Germany, Spain, the UK and elsewhere, a 36.5% increase over 2023, with total departures of just under 191,000 marking the highest level in a quarter of a century, according to Istat.

About 156,000 Italians left the country last year for Germany, Spain, the UK and elsewhere, a 36.5% increase over the number who emigrated in 2023. At just under 191,000, the total number of people who left Italy in 2024 was at the highest level in a quarter of a century, according to Italy’s official statistics agency, Istat. Italy’s population decline is among the most acute in Europe, after decades of plummeting birth rates. At present, about a quarter of Italy’s 59mn people are over the age of 65, while just 12% of the population are children aged 14 and under. The working age population is forecast to drop by another 5mn people by 2040. Of those who emigrated, more than a third — 367,000 people — were between 25 and 35-years-old, including 146,000 college graduates. The exodus of educated youth has only gained momentum with time. In 2014, only one in three Italian emigrants were college educated, while in 2023 — the last year for which such detailed breakdowns are available — half of those who left held at least a college degree, Istat said. “The migration balance of young graduates has been consistently negative, with a net loss of about 97,000 over the decade, a significant deficit of qualified human capital.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. About 156,000 Italians left Italy in 2024 for Germany, Spain, the UK and elsewhere, a 36.5% increase over 2023, with total departures of just under 191,000 marking the highest level in a quarter of a century, according to Istat.
  2. Roughly a quarter of Italy's 59mn people are over 65 while just 12% are children aged 14 and under, and the working-age population is forecast to drop by another 5mn by 2040.
  3. Istat reports that half of Italian emigrants in 2023 held at least a college degree, up from one in three in 2014, with a net loss of about 97,000 young graduates over the decade.

Related Articles:

  • Germany Opened Its Doors to Migrants. Now It’s Struggling to Cope — Germany recorded 6.43m more arrivals than departures over a decade, the largest inflow of any country outside the US, with migrants at 18.8% of the population versus 15.3% in the US. Noncitizens, 15% of the population, accounted for 41% of crimes, up from 28.7%, according to police statistics.
  • Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory — Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.
  • Germany Joins EU’s ‘Ultra-Low’ Fertility Club — Germany's fertility rate fell to 1.35 children per woman, below the United Nations' "ultra-low" threshold of 1.4, a level at which falling birth rates become difficult to reverse. Estonia and Austria also dropped below 1.4, joining nine European Union countries including Spain, Greece, and Italy, while France's rate fell to a record-low 1.67 and Finland's to 1.26.

AI Summary. Denmark's state pension age is tied to life expectancy under a parliamentary agreement that sets adjustments every five years with 15 years' notice and caps increases at one year at a time. Under this system the pension age is set to rise from 67 to 70, keeping public finances healthy long term.

Jesper Rangvid Rangvid’s Blog
Date Posted:

The Danish Welfare Reform of 2006 linked the eligibility age for the state pension to life expectancy. Recent changes increase the statutory age of eligibility, from 67 today to age 70 by 2040, a reform that may secure the system’s fiscal sustainability.

Does linking the retirement age to life expectancy keep public finances healthy?

Core argument: Denmark's decision of 22 May raises the state pension age to 70 in 2040, up from 67 currently and already-decided increases to 68 in 2030 and 69 in 2035.

[The Danish raising the retirement age to 70] was highly anticipated because it stems from a 20-year-old political agreement—known as the ‘Welfare Reform’, passed by the Danish Parliament in 2006—that links the state pension age to life expectancy. The state pension age can be raised by a maximum of one year at a time (i.e. there is a cap on increases). Adjustments to the state pension age are decided every five years in the Folketing (Danish Parliament), with 15 years’ notice. Currently, the state pension age in Denmark is 67. It had already been decided that it will rise to 68 in 2030 and to 69 in 2035. The decision made on 22 May raises it to 70 with 15 years’ notice, meaning it will come into effect in 2040. If Denmark continues to raise the retirement age as planned, the country’s public finances will remain healthy in the long term. Failure to adjust the retirement age would place a significant burden on public finances. High levels of private pension savings among Danes, and taxation upon withdrawals, contribute substantially to the health of the system.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Denmark's decision of 22 May raises the state pension age to 70 in 2040, up from 67 currently and already-decided increases to 68 in 2030 and 69 in 2035.
  2. Denmark's 2006 'Welfare Reform' links the state pension age to life expectancy, with adjustments decided every five years in the Folketing, capped at one year per increase and requiring 15 years' notice.
  3. Continuing to raise Denmark's retirement age as planned would keep public finances healthy in the long term, while failure to adjust would place a significant burden on them; high private pension savings and taxation on withdrawals also support the system.

Related Articles:

  • Analysis of the 2024 Social Security Trustees’ Report — The Social Security Trustees project the retirement trust fund will deplete its reserves by 2033, triggering a 21% across-the-board benefit cut, with the combined retirement and disability funds insolvent by 2035 and a 17% cut. Restoring 75-year solvency would require the equivalent of a 27% payroll tax increase or a 21% benefit reduction.
  • China’s First Retirement Age Hike Since 1978 Triggers Discontent — China will raise its retirement age for the first time since 1978, phasing in over 15 years a shift for men from 60 to 63 and for women from 50 to 55 for ordinary workers and 55 to 58 for managers. People 65 and older are projected to reach 30% of the population by around 2035, from 14.2%.
  • Macron’s Pensions Law Clears Constitutional Hurdle After Protests — France's constitutional council validated most of a law raising the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64, ruling it valid under the constitution and legally enacted. Turnout for labour-led marches and strikes against the reform has shrunk.

AI Summary. Ukraine used drones smuggled into Russia aboard trucks and released remotely from mobile wooden structures to strike strategic airfields as distant as eastern Siberia. An official in Ukraine's Security Service said more than 40 Russian aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3 long-range bombers and A-50 surveillance planes, were damaged, with losses assessed at at least $2bn.

Bloomberg Staff Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Drones released from trucks destroyed or damaged 40 Russian aircraft, including long-range bombers. Kiev claimed the Russian losses were over $2B.

Can smuggled drones destroy strategic bombers thousands of miles inside enemy territory?

Core argument: More than 40 Russian aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3 long-range bombers capable of delivering conventional and nuclear weapons and the A-50, were reported damaged in Ukraine's Sunday strikes, an official in Ukraine's Security Service said.

Ukraine staged a dramatic series of strikes across Russia, deploying drones hidden in trucks deep inside the country to hit strategic airfields as far away as eastern Siberia. More than 40 Russian aircraft, including the Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3 long-range bombers capable of deploying conventional and nuclear weapons as well as the A-50, are reported to have been damaged in the operation on Sunday, an official in Ukraine’s Security Service said on condition of anonymity as the details are not public. Ukraine’s Security Service chief Vasyl Malyuk led the operation and losses are assessed to be at least $2 billion, the person said. Drones were released remotely from wooden mobile houses that were transported on trucks inside Russian territory, according to the official.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. More than 40 Russian aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3 long-range bombers capable of delivering conventional and nuclear weapons and the A-50, were reported damaged in Ukraine's Sunday strikes, an official in Ukraine's Security Service said.
  2. Russian losses from the operation are assessed at at least $2 billion, according to the Ukrainian Security Service official, who spoke anonymously because the details are not public.
  3. Drones were released remotely from wooden mobile houses transported on trucks inside Russian territory to hit strategic airfields as far away as eastern Siberia, in an operation led by Ukraine's Security Service chief Vasyl Malyuk, the official said.

Related Articles:

  • A US Drone Maker Tries to Take Back the Country’s Skies — US drone maker Skydio has produced 45,000 drones in total, while Chinese rival DJI likely makes that many every few weeks — a scale gap that matters because production costs fall predictably with cumulative output. The Pentagon's Defense Innovation Unit says that at attrition rates observed in Ukraine, the US military would exhaust its entire drone supply in five days.
  • A Thousand Snipers in the Sky: The New War in Ukraine — Ukraine reported making over one million first-person-view drones in a year while Russia claims output of 4,000 daily, with both aiming for three to four million annually. Drones now hunt other drones, act as motherships for swarms, and explosive-laden naval vessels target ships hundreds of miles away.
  • Defence Groups Bet Big On Drone-Destroying Laser Weapons — Major defense contractors including RTX, MBDA, and QinetiQ are investing heavily in high-energy laser weapons to destroy drones, a technology long regarded as science fiction. Britain's Ministry of Defence says its DragonFire laser will be deployed on Royal Navy ships five years ahead of schedule, firing at roughly £10 a shot.