Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, March 19, 2025

AI Summary. Matched employer-employee data show the mean distance from an American worker's home to their employer's worksite rose from 15 miles to 26 miles, with 12% of recent hires living at least 50 miles away, triple the earlier share. Separation and hiring rates are higher for distant employees.

Mert Akan, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
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Between 2019 and 2023, the mean US distance from work rose from 15 to 26 miles; 12% of employees hired after March 2020 live at least 50 miles from their employers, 3x the % in 2019. High taxes and house prices predicted relocation. @I_Am_NickBloom

How far do American workers now live from their employers?

Core argument: Mean distance from employee home to employer worksite rose from 15 miles in 2019 to 26 miles in 2023 in matched employer-employee data.

We use matched employer-employee data to study where Americans live in relation to employer worksites. Mean distance from employee home to employer worksite rose from 15 miles in 2019 to 26 miles in 2023. Twelve percent of employees hired after March 2020 live at least fifty miles from their employer in 2023, triple the pre-pandemic share. Distance from employers rose more for persons in their 30s and 40s, in highly paid employees, and in Finance, Information, and Professional Services. Among persons who stay with the same employer from one year to the next, we find net migration to states with lower top tax rates and areas with cheaper housing. These migration patterns greatly intensify after the pandemic and are much stronger for high earners. Top tax rates fell 5.2 percentage points for high earners who stayed with the same employer but switched states in 2020. Finally, we show that employers treat distant employees as a more flexible margin of adjustment: Separation and hiring rates are greater, and more responsive to employer growth, for distant employees.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Mean distance from employee home to employer worksite rose from 15 miles in 2019 to 26 miles in 2023 in matched employer-employee data.
  2. Twelve percent of employees hired after March 2020 lived at least 50 miles from their employer in 2023, triple the pre-pandemic share, with larger distance increases among people in their 30s and 40s, highly paid employees, and Finance, Information, and Professional Services.
  3. High earners who stayed with the same employer but switched states in 2020 saw top tax rates fall 5.2 percentage points, part of net migration toward states with lower top tax rates and areas with cheaper housing that intensified after the pandemic.

Related Articles:

  • Does Working from Home Boost Productivity Growth? — After controlling for each industry's pre-pandemic productivity trend, there is essentially no statistically significant relationship between how easily an industry's work can be done remotely and its excess productivity growth during the pandemic.
  • Working From Density — Within the same metropolitan-area income quartile, denser neighborhoods have a higher share of jobs that can be done remotely. The authors argue this pattern suggests increased telework raises willingness to pay for housing in high-density places, where leisure amenities and nonwork social interaction are more available.
  • Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse — The authors estimate New York City office values fell 45% in 2020 and 39% in the longer run, a $453bn value destruction, with lower-quality buildings hit hardest as tenants shifted to higher-quality space. They argue this has implications for local public finances and financial sector stability.

AI Summary. The authors' Young Family Median Multiple, comparing median incomes of 20-34 year-olds to local median home values, finds that virtually every US metro area met a basic affordability standard in 1969 versus just 21% in 2018-2022. New housing completions trailed new household formations by 3.8m units.

Wendell Cox and Lyman Stone Institute for Family Studies
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Between 1980 and 2023, home ownership for the US 25-35 cohort has fallen from 50% to 25-30%. @lymanstoneky attributes this to high prices, noting that in 1969 the median home cost ~ five years of a young adult’s income vs. nine years today.

Has housing affordability for young families declined across US metro areas?

Core argument: The authors' Young Family Median Multiple, comparing median personal incomes of individuals ages 20–34 to local median home values, shows just 21% of metro areas met a basic affordability standard in 2018–2022, versus virtually all of them in 1969.

We developed a new indicator we labeled the Young Family Median Multiple (YFMM). It compares the median personal incomes of individuals ages 20-34 to median home values in their local area. Whereas in 1969, virtually every metro area met a basic standard of affordability for young people, in 2018-2022, just 21% did, and over half of the nation’s metro areas were rated as seriously unaffordable for young families, or worse. Between 2012 and 2023, 13.4 million new housing units were completed, while new household formations were 17.2 million, for a supply gap of 3.8 million housing units. Only 9.5 million of these new completions were single-family units.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors' Young Family Median Multiple, comparing median personal incomes of individuals ages 20–34 to local median home values, shows just 21% of metro areas met a basic affordability standard in 2018–2022, versus virtually all of them in 1969.
  2. More than half of U.S. metro areas rated as seriously unaffordable for young families or worse in 2018–2022 under the authors' Young Family Median Multiple.
  3. Between 2012 and 2023, 13.4 million new housing units were completed against 17.2 million new household formations, a supply gap of 3.8 million units, with only 9.5 million of the completions single-family.

Related Articles:

  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak — Inflation-adjusted US house prices stand 1.3% below their 2022 peak. An affordability index built from median income, national house prices, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates shows that over a three-year span, the monthly principal-and-interest payment on a $500,000 house with 20% down rose 75%, as prices rose 19% and mortgage rates went from 3.07% to 6.43%.
  • The Price of Housing in the United States — Real housing price appreciation in the United States has varied widely across regions, with West Coast cities rising earlier while prices in other regions remained comparable in real terms to decades earlier. The authors find essentially no relationship between real price growth and zoning restrictiveness in the earliest period studied, and progressively steeper gradients in later periods.
  • This Is How to Fix the Housing Crisis — US homebuilding falls short of demand, particularly in high-demand coastal markets, with per-person permitting running at less than half the level of two and five decades ago. The author argues Washington could unlock construction by conditioning federal highway funds on state housing reform, the same lever used to push states to set the drinking age at 21.

AI Summary. Germany's parliament approved constitutional changes allowing up to €1tn for military and infrastructure spending, including unlimited borrowing for defense and a €500bn, 12-year fund to modernize hospitals, schools, roads and energy networks. The plan could revive Europe's largest economy and boost EU rearmament efforts.

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany Financial Times
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Germany will spend an additional €1T over the current baseline on the country’s military and infrastructure. The Bundestag authorized “unlimited borrowing” for defense and an additional €500B for infrastructure over 12 years.

Will Germany lift borrowing limits to fund military and infrastructure spending?

Core argument: Germany's Bundestag approved Friedrich Merz's plan to inject up to €1tn into the country's military and infrastructure, with 513 lawmakers backing the constitutional changes in an emergency session, exceeding the required two-thirds majority.

Germany’s parliament has approved Friedrich Merz’s plans to inject up to €1tn into the country’s military and infrastructure, in a move that could revive Europe’s largest economy and boost the EU’s rearmament efforts. In an emergency session of the outgoing Bundestag on Tuesday, the chancellor-in-waiting won the support of 513 lawmakers, more than the two-thirds majority required for the constitutional changes. The Christian Democrat and his likely coalition partners the Social Democrats (SPD), are seeking to allow unlimited borrowing for defence spending and create a €500bn, 12-year fund to modernise hospitals, schools, roads and energy networks.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Germany's Bundestag approved Friedrich Merz's plan to inject up to €1tn into the country's military and infrastructure, with 513 lawmakers backing the constitutional changes in an emergency session, exceeding the required two-thirds majority.
  2. Merz and his likely coalition partners, the Social Democrats, are seeking to allow unlimited borrowing for defence spending and to create a €500bn, 12-year fund to modernise hospitals, schools, roads and energy networks.
  3. The German spending plan could revive Europe's largest economy and boost the EU's rearmament efforts.

Related Articles:

  • German Army Struggles to Get Gen Z Recruits ‘Ready for War’ — Germany's armed forces commissioner warned the country is not moving closer to its target of 203,000 active troops by 2031, as the military slightly shrank amid high dropout rates, with a quarter of new recruits leaving within six months. Conscientious objector applications reached 2,998, up from 200 in 2021.
  • Rheinmetall Says it Could Take Over Idle Volkswagen Plants to Produce Tanks — German arms maker Rheinmetall is considering taking over one of Volkswagen's soon-to-be idle German plants as it searches for extra production capacity, though the company says any acquisition would depend on securing more tank orders. Volkswagen decided to halve its German production capacity, idling three plants, because of a slowdown in European car sales.
  • The Intellectual Spoils of War? Defense RD, Productivity and International Spillovers — The authors estimate that a 10% increase in government-financed R&D, largely defense, is associated with a 4.3% rise in privately funded R&D across OECD countries, indicating "crowding in" rather than "crowding out." They also find international spillovers raise private R&D abroad, though the overall effect on US productivity growth is modest.

AI Summary. Large inflows from abroad have left foreign investors significantly overweight US equities. Combined with the dollar's decline and what the author characterizes as overvaluation of the largest US technology stocks, this creates significant downside risk to the S&P 500 if foreign investors sell.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
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Almost $10T of foreign money has flowed into US equities since Q4 2019. Noting foreign investors are “overweight” US equities, Torsten Sløk argues “the downside risks to the S&P 500 as a result of foreigners selling are significant.”

Do overweight foreign investors pose downside risk to US stocks?

Core argument: Foreign investors have poured significant inflows into US equity markets and are now significantly overweight US equities, leaving the S&P 500 exposed to a foreign pullback.

There have been significant inflows from abroad into US equity markets and foreign investors are now significantly overweight US equities. Combined with the dollar’s decline and the ongoing overvaluation of the Magnificent 7 the downside risks to the S&P 500 as a result of foreigners selling are significant.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Foreign investors have poured significant inflows into US equity markets and are now significantly overweight US equities, leaving the S&P 500 exposed to a foreign pullback.
  2. The combination of foreign overweight positioning, the dollar's decline, and the overvaluation of the Magnificent 7 creates significant downside risk to the S&P 500 if foreign investors sell.

Related Articles:

  • US Exceptionalism: Drivers of Equity Outperformance and What’s Needed for a Repeat — US companies need about 7% earnings-per-share growth to deliver a normal 4% equity risk premium above the risk-free rate, versus about 3% for other developed markets, with the highest expectations embedded in technology and the largest US tech firms. Chinese companies could generate a 4% risk premium over Chinese bonds with no earnings growth.
  • Lowering our S&P 500 EPS and Valuation Forecasts As the “Maleficent 7” Pushes the Index to the Brink of Correction — The S&P 500 fell 9% from its record high, with more than half of the decline coming from a 14% drop in the seven largest technology stocks, whose price-to-earnings ratio fell from 30x to 26x. The equal-weighted index declined 6%, leaving it 8% below its own record high.
  • The Trade War Will Pound Stocks — Efforts to cut U.S. trade deficits and escalate tensions with allies risk deterring foreign capital, and foreigners need only stop buying U.S. assets to hit prices, as China and Russia already have. Bridgewater estimates nonfinancial U.S. firms capture 39% of global profits though the U.S. is 15% of world output.

AI Summary. Foreign assets of China's commercial banks have been rising at roughly $100bn a quarter, or $400bn a year, an amount equal to about a quarter of the roughly $1.5tn in net global financial flows that sustain trade imbalances. The increase is funded domestically, as foreign liabilities have fallen.

Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
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Net foreign assets of China’s commercial banks have been rising at around $400B annually. @Brad_Setser argues these flows are likely “a big part” of how “Chinese surpluses fund [chronic] deficits in the US.”

How much of global financing flows do Chinese banks supply?

Core argument: Foreign assets of China's commercial banks have been rising at roughly $100bn a quarter, or $400bn a year, for more than two quarters, equal to about one-quarter of the roughly $1.5tn net global current account imbalance.

One of the biggest global flows right now is the increase in the foreign assets of China's commercial banks -- it has been running at a pace of about $100b a quarter/ $400b a year for the last two plus quarters. That's real money. The net global current account (or trade imbalance, if you don't trust the current account numbers right now) is something like $1.5 trillion, so $400b is 1/4 of the total net financial flow that sustains trade imbalances. It can also be compared to the bond inflow tied to the era of peak imbalances (and peak reserve accumulation) -- China's purchases of US bonds back then never significantly topped $400b. And to be clear, it is a net flow: foreign assets are up, foreign liabilities are down, so the increase in foreign assets (and fx assets) is being funded domestically. It thus is part of the global net flow of funds that sustains trade imbalances. There is a very technical puzzle here -- the increase in the net foreign asset position in 2020 and 21 came when the CNY was trading strong and settlement showed big purchases (so everything pointed to intervention), and neither is the case now. But taken both literally and seriously, a big part of the global capital flow puzzle now (puzzle = how does a Chinese and Russian surplus fund a deficit in the US/UK/ India) is coming from the not fully transparent Chinese state banks.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Foreign assets of China's commercial banks have been rising at roughly $100bn a quarter, or $400bn a year, for more than two quarters, equal to about one-quarter of the roughly $1.5tn net global current account imbalance.
  2. The $400bn annual pace is comparable to China's purchases of US bonds during the era of peak global imbalances and peak reserve accumulation, which never significantly topped $400bn.

Related Articles:

  • China’s Stunning 2024 Export Growth — Chinese export volumes are up 13% year-over-year while import volumes are up only 2%, a gap that with exports at about 20% of GDP implies a net exports contribution to Chinese growth of close to 2% of GDP. Falling Chinese export prices mean export volumes are growing much faster than the dollar value of exports.
  • The iPhone, the IMF, and China’s Balance of Payments — China's post-pandemic balance-of-payments methodology reports a substantially smaller surplus than its customs trade data, on the rationale that contract manufacturers making goods for foreign firms with offshore intellectual property record inflated export prices. Chinese export prices for smartphones of $300–400 per phone sit near estimated manufacturing costs and well below global wholesale prices, undercutting that rationale.

AI Summary. U.S. officials are expected to factor other countries' value-added taxes on consumption into reciprocal tariff calculations, with Mexico's rate equivalent to a 16% federal sales tax, subject to exemptions and lower rates on some basic goods. The administration views these taxes as discriminatory because they are refunded to exporters but paid by U.S. firms selling into those markets.

Gavin Bade, Josh Dawsey, and Vipal Monga Wall Street Journal
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American reciprocal tariffs will be announced on April 2 and will include value-added taxes (VAT) on consumption as a non-tariff barrier. The Trump Administration argues that VATs are discriminatory as they are refunded to domestic firms that export.

Should foreign value-added taxes count in reciprocal tariff calculations?

Core argument: Trump administration officials expect any reciprocal tariff plan to account for value-added taxes that many other nations charge on consumption within their borders, including Mexico's VAT, equivalent to a federal sales tax of 16%.

No matter what the administration settles on, officials expect they will take into account value-added taxes that many other nations charge on consumption within their boundaries. In Mexico, for instance, the VAT is equivalent to a federal sales tax of 16%, although a number of basic goods and services have exemptions or lower rates. Trump’s team has long viewed those taxes as discriminatory, because they are refunded to companies that export abroad, but still are paid by U.S. firms selling into nations with a VAT.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Trump administration officials expect any reciprocal tariff plan to account for value-added taxes that many other nations charge on consumption within their borders, including Mexico's VAT, equivalent to a federal sales tax of 16%.
  2. Trump's team has long viewed foreign value-added taxes as discriminatory because they are refunded to companies exporting abroad while still being paid by U.S. firms selling into nations with a VAT.
  3. Mexico's 16% value-added tax carries exemptions or lower rates for a number of basic goods and services.

Related Articles:

  • Trump Widens Trade Fight to Include Global Taxes and Regulation — The US has directed economic officials to calculate new country-by-country "reciprocal" tariffs based on the total tariff, tax, regulatory, currency and other barriers facing US exports, treating value-added taxes as a trade barrier. If value-added tax rates are added to existing tariff rates, India would face the highest rate at 29%, followed by Brazil and the European Union.
  • A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System — During the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war, the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports rose 17.9 percentage points while the renminbi depreciated 13.7% against the dollar, leaving after-tariff import prices in dollars up just 4.1%. The author argues this currency offset of more than three-fourths of the tariff explains why inflation pressure was negligible.
  • Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord — Sustainably weakening the dollar would require the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates while foreign central banks raise theirs, which is unlikely given US inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and weak foreign economies. Tariff threats and security-umbrella pressure might sway Japan and Europe, but China would be less willing to comply.

AI Summary. Proposals to reshape the dollar would recreate a global system of exchange rate management, making the shift from Bretton Woods fixed-but-adjustable exchange rates to floating rates a closer parallel than the 1980s Plaza and Louvre Accords, which aimed to manage imbalances within an existing floating-rate regime.

Martin Wolf Financial Times
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Martin Wolf argues the theorized “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is best thought of as a return to the old Bretton Woods system of fixed, but adjustable, exchange rates, not as an attempt to better manage the floating exchange rate regime.

Would remaking the dollar mean returning to managed exchange rates?

Core argument: What is now proposed would recreate a global system of exchange rate management, rather than manage a floating regime as the 1980s Plaza and Louvre Accords did.

The old Bretton Woods system of fixed, but adjustable, exchange rates was replaced by today’s floating exchange rates. Miran applies this perspective to the current predicament of the US. That is why one should view what happened in the 1960s and 1970s as a better parallel to what is being discussed today than the Plaza and Louvre Accords of the 1980s. The latter were aimed at managing a floating exchange rate regime at a time of disequilibrium among the dollar and other currencies, especially the Japanese yen and German mark. What is proposed now is recreating a global system of exchange rate management.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. What is now proposed would recreate a global system of exchange rate management, rather than manage a floating regime as the 1980s Plaza and Louvre Accords did.
  2. Miran views the current US predicament through the lens of the Bretton Woods system of fixed but adjustable exchange rates, which was replaced by today's floating rates.
  3. The 1960s and 1970s, rather than the Plaza and Louvre Accords of the 1980s, offer the better parallel to current discussions, since those accords addressed disequilibrium among the dollar, the Japanese yen, and the German mark.

Related Articles:

  • A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System — During the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war, the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports rose 17.9 percentage points while the renminbi depreciated 13.7% against the dollar, leaving after-tariff import prices in dollars up just 4.1%. The author argues this currency offset of more than three-fourths of the tariff explains why inflation pressure was negligible.
  • What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? — The proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord would have the US offer allies security guarantees and market access in exchange for their intervening to weaken the dollar, expanding US manufacturing, and swapping existing US government debt for new 100-year Treasury bonds. Questions remain about the transition costs, inflation from higher US wage costs, and allies' incentives to participate.
  • Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord — Sustainably weakening the dollar would require the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates while foreign central banks raise theirs, which is unlikely given US inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and weak foreign economies. Tariff threats and security-umbrella pressure might sway Japan and Europe, but China would be less willing to comply.

Thursday, March 20, 2025

AI Summary. About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
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Over the next two years, the US must refinance debt exceeding 25% of GDP at sharply higher rates. Treasuries issued in 2024 carried an average yield approximately 2 percentage points higher than debt maturing in 2025-27.

How much will maturing advanced-economy government debt cost to refinance?

Core argument: About 60% of OECD fixed-rate debt maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued in 2021 or earlier, and with weighted average yield-to-maturity below 2% in 2025–27 against projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, it will likely be refinanced at nearly twice original rates.

Around 60% of the fixed-rate debt in the OECD that will mature by 2027 (approximately $9T) was issued in 2021 or earlier, before the recent tightening cycle, most likely at yields below current market rates. The weighted average YTM of the maturing debt in 2025-27, remains below 2% in all three years, [while] the average of the projected 10-year interest rate in OECD countries is expected to remain around 3.6% in 2025. The debt maturing in 2025-27 will, therefore, likely be refinanced at nearly twice the original rates. Increased borrowing needs and high borrowing costs have driven interest payments to a higher share of GDP in 2024, [contributing to] the first increase in the central government marketable debt-to-GDP ratio since 2020. The supply of bonds needing to be absorbed by the market accelerated as central banks continued to scale back their holdings. Four countries — France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States — face heightened vulnerability, with the debt maturing by 2027 exceeding 15% of their current GDP and the average yield-to-maturity on debt issued in 2024 surpassing that of this maturing debt by over 1.5 percentage points.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. About 60% of OECD fixed-rate debt maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued in 2021 or earlier, and with weighted average yield-to-maturity below 2% in 2025–27 against projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, it will likely be refinanced at nearly twice original rates.
  2. France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States face heightened vulnerability, with debt maturing by 2027 exceeding 15% of current GDP and average yield-to-maturity on 2024 issuance exceeding that of the maturing debt by over 1.5 percentage points.
  3. Increased borrowing needs and high borrowing costs pushed interest payments to a higher share of GDP in 2024, contributing to the first rise in the central government marketable debt-to-GDP ratio since 2020, as central banks continued scaling back bond holdings.

Related Articles:

  • Global Government Borrowing Set to Hit Record $12.3tn — S&P Global Ratings estimates global government borrowing will reach a record $12.3tn, a 3% rise in sovereign bond issuance across 138 countries that would lift the total debt stock to a record $76.9tn, or 70.2% of global GDP. S&P attributes the increase to higher defence and other spending by major economies alongside higher interest rates.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.
  • Brazil’s Slow-Burning Economic Crisis Might Be the U.S. Future — Brazil illustrates a feedback loop in which higher interest rates raise debt-servicing costs—now over 7% of GDP—which in turn lift risk premia and inflation expectations, making fiscal policy less sustainable still. U.S. long-term rates have not fallen despite Federal Reserve cuts, partly reflecting an $11tn debt increase and markets pricing the risk that debt is managed through higher inflation.

AI Summary. Florida's total property-tax levy has roughly doubled over the past decade to more than $55bn as home values surged, with property taxes supplying 18% of county revenue, 17% of municipal revenue and 50%–60% of school-district revenue. Eliminating them would require at least doubling the sales tax to 12%.

Arian Campo-Flores and Deborah Acosta Wall Street Journal
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Florida lawmakers are weighing a first-in-the-nation repeal of property taxes as home affordability erodes. Property taxes have doubled over the last decade to $55B; eliminating them would require doubling the sales tax to 12%.

How much would sales taxes rise to replace property taxes?

Core argument: Florida's total property-tax levy roughly doubled over the past decade to more than $55 billion in fiscal 2024–25 as real-estate values surged, though the state's effective property-tax rate ranked 28th nationally in 2023, according to the Tax Foundation.

Property values in the U.S. increased 27%, adjusted for inflation, between January 2020 and July 2024, according to the Tax Foundation. Median home prices in Florida have skyrocketed, quadrupling in the Miami metro area since 2012 and more than tripling in the Orlando and Tampa metro areas, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin. Average home-insurance premiums in Florida have climbed, rising to $3,731 in 2024 from $1,973 in 2018, according to the Insurance Information Institute and state data. Florida’s effective property-tax rate ranked 28th nationally in 2023, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation. But as real-estate values have surged, the total amount levied has roughly doubled over the past decade, reaching more than $55 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year. Florida has no personal income tax, [so] property taxes play a significant role in paying for schools, police, parks and other services. They account for 18% of county revenue, 17% of municipal revenue and 50% to 60% of school-district revenue. If property taxes were eliminated, the sales tax would have to be at least doubled, to 12%, to make up for the lost revenue.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Florida's total property-tax levy roughly doubled over the past decade to more than $55 billion in fiscal 2024–25 as real-estate values surged, though the state's effective property-tax rate ranked 28th nationally in 2023, according to the Tax Foundation.
  2. Property taxes account for 18% of Florida county revenue, 17% of municipal revenue and 50% to 60% of school-district revenue, and eliminating them would require at least doubling the sales tax to 12% to replace the lost revenue.
  3. Median home prices have quadrupled in the Miami metro area since 2012 and more than tripled in the Orlando and Tampa metro areas, according to Redfin, while average Florida home-insurance premiums rose to $3,731 in 2024 from $1,973 in 2018.

Related Articles:

  • The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone — Florida's housing market is cooling amid excess inventory and weaker buyer demand, with analysts warning some cities could see a price correction. Home insurance premiums in parts of the state are up as much as 400% over five years, pricing out some homeowners and prompting institutional investors to sell properties.
  • Florida’s Home Insurance Industry May Be Worse Than Anyone Realizes — A working paper by researchers at Harvard, Columbia, and the Federal Reserve finds that nearly 20% of Florida insurers rated financially stable by the rating agency Demotech became insolvent, with 99.7% of that agency's ratings in the sample at A or above. The researchers argue this signals Florida's insurance market is more precarious than already known.
  • The Economic Geography Of The 2024 Elections — Counties where government transfer programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and unemployment insurance make up at least a quarter of personal income gave Trump 63% of the vote, while counties where transfers account for less than 15% gave Harris 56%. Transfers supplied 18% of total US personal income.

AI Summary. Research finds children raised outside an intact two-parent family are markedly more likely to struggle in school, with the law, and in the workforce; boys raised outside such families are more likely to be incarcerated than to graduate college. Marriage is also associated with men working harder and fewer deaths of despair.

Brad Wilcox and Maria Baer Deseret News
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American boys raised outside of an intact family with two biological parents are “more likely to go to prison or jail than they are to graduate from college.” @BradWilcoxIFS

Does growing up outside a two-parent family hurt children's outcomes?

Core argument: Boys raised outside an intact family with two biological parents are more likely to go to prison or jail than to graduate from college, while boys raised by two married biological parents are about twice as likely to graduate as to be imprisoned.

Our research has demonstrated the catastrophic social consequences of absentee fatherhood and family breakdown. When children are raised outside of an intact family, those children are markedly more likely to struggle in school, to tangle with the law and to struggle in the workforce. The data show a clear “two-parent advantage” for kids, especially boys. Our most striking finding is that boys raised outside of an intact family with two biological parents are more likely to go to prison or jail than they are to graduate from college. By contrast, boys raised by their two married, biological parents are about twice as likely to graduate from college as they are to land in prison. There’s another surprising discovery in the data. Stable marriages don’t just benefit kids. The obligations of family life motivate men to work harder and smarter. [Further], the data suggest being a married family man also protects men from self-destruction. Deaths of despair, for instance, are markedly lower in places where more men (and women) are married.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Boys raised outside an intact family with two biological parents are more likely to go to prison or jail than to graduate from college, while boys raised by two married biological parents are about twice as likely to graduate as to be imprisoned.
  2. Children raised outside an intact family are markedly more likely to struggle in school, tangle with the law and struggle in the workforce, a pattern the authors call a "two-parent advantage" that is especially clear for boys.
  3. The obligations of family life motivate men to work harder and smarter, and the data suggest deaths of despair are markedly lower in places where more men and women are married.

Related Articles:

  • Post-Pandemic Recovery for America’s Prime Age Labor Force: A Tale of Two Sexes — Prime-age women's labor force participation climbed about 5 points above its pre-pandemic level over a decade, while prime-age men's rose barely a point, only just regaining pre-pandemic levels. Despite economic expansion and labor shortages, work rates for prime-age American men are barely as high as at the trough of the severe Reagan-era recession.
  • Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation Across Generations — Each successive generation of prime-age men has shown higher rates of not participating in the labor force, with millennials starting at a higher level and declining more steeply into their mid-30s, a pattern driven by school enrollment. Given rising educational attainment, the authors suggest the sustained rise in male nonparticipation may slow, which could benefit economic growth.
  • Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates — Marriage rates for college-educated women have remained stable over the past fifty years even as the relative supply of college-educated men declined, with the overall decline in marriage driven almost entirely by fewer marriages between non-college women and non-college men. The education gap in women's marriage rates is larger in areas where non-college men face the highest joblessness and incarceration.

AI Summary. Preliminary estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show US overdose deaths fell 25% over a 12-month period to about 82,000, led by a falling number of fatalities involving synthetic opioids such as bootleg fentanyl.

Julie Wernau, Brianna Abbott, and Josh Ulick Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

US drug overdose deaths fell 25% YoY as of Oct 2024, with 82,000 fatalities—driven by a decline in deaths from synthetic opioid deaths like fentanyl. Researchers suggest the drop reflects a grim reality: “the most vulnerable people have died.” @WSJ

Are US drug overdose deaths falling?

Core argument: U.S. overdose deaths fell 25% in the 12 months ending October 2024 versus the prior-year period, to about 82,000 deaths, according to preliminary CDC estimates.

Over the 12 months ending in October 2024, the country saw a 25% decline in overdose deaths compared with the same period the year prior, according to the latest preliminary estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 82,000 overdose deaths were reported. The leading factor? A falling number of fatalities involving synthetic opioids, a drug class in which bootleg fentanyl is the big killer. That shift occurs in part because the most vulnerable people have died and others have adapted. Many fentanyl users are now smoking the drug instead of injecting it, and some research shows that smoking fentanyl could come with lower risk of overdose, infections and other complications.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. overdose deaths fell 25% in the 12 months ending October 2024 versus the prior-year period, to about 82,000 deaths, according to preliminary CDC estimates.
  2. The decline is led by fewer fatalities involving synthetic opioids, the drug class in which bootleg fentanyl is the big killer.
  3. The shift occurs in part because the most vulnerable people have died and others have adapted, with many fentanyl users smoking rather than injecting, which some research links to lower risk of overdose, infections and other complications.

Related Articles:

  • Fentanyl Deaths Are Falling. What’s Behind the Decline? — Gangs mixing fentanyl with the horse tranquilliser xylazine is believed to postpone withdrawal symptoms so users take fewer hits, and to be one factor behind a shift from injecting to smoking fentanyl, which tends to reduce lethality. Analysis of state-level data finds the states furthest into declines in fentanyl mortality are those where xylazine has circulated longest.
  • Importing the Opioid Crisis? International Trade and Fentanyl Overdoses — A study using U.S. mortality and import data finds a positive state-level association between imports per resident and drug overdose death rates, driven by fentanyl and accounting for an estimated 15,000–20,000 deaths per year. The authors estimate that 10% higher imports per resident is associated with an 8.1% higher fentanyl death rate.
  • The Rise in American Pain: The Importance of the Great Recession — The authors find that the rise in reported pain among Americans was almost entirely concentrated in the 2007–2010 recession period rather than following a smooth upward trend, with the disproportionate increase among the less educated also occurring primarily then. The authors state they find this jump difficult to explain.

AI Summary. Nvidia says it will procure roughly $500bn of electronics over the next four years and expects several hundred billion dollars of that to be manufactured in the US, shifting its supply chain back from Asia amid US tariff threats.

Tim Bradshaw and Michael Acton Financial Times
Date Posted:

Nvidia’s CEO and co-founder said the firm will spend $500B on chips and electronics globally over the next four years and “we can easily see ourselves manufacturing several hundred billion of it here in the US,” tilting its supply chain away from Asia.

Are tariff threats pushing chipmakers to shift supply chains to the US?

Core argument: Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang told the Financial Times the company will procure probably half a trillion dollars worth of electronics over the next four years, and that he can "easily see" several hundred billion of it manufactured in the US.

Nvidia will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on chips and other electronics manufactured in the US over the next four years, its chief executive has said, as the company tilts its supply chain back from Asia in the face of Donald Trump’s tariff threats. “Overall, we will procure, over the course of the next four years, probably half a trillion dollars worth of electronics in total,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive and co-founder, told the Financial Times. “And I think we can easily see ourselves manufacturing several hundred billion of it here in the US.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang told the Financial Times the company will procure probably half a trillion dollars worth of electronics over the next four years, and that he can "easily see" several hundred billion of it manufactured in the US.
  2. Nvidia is tilting its supply chain back from Asia to the US in the face of Donald Trump's tariff threats.

Related Articles:

  • DeepSeek Debates: Chinese Leadership On Cost, True Training Cost, Closed Model Margin Impacts — Estimates put algorithmic progress in artificial intelligence at roughly 4x per year, meaning the compute needed for a given capability level falls 4x annually, with some industry leaders arguing improvements run closer to 10x. The Bank of China announced a $140bn (1tn yuan) five-year subsidy for the AI industry chain aimed at making China self-reliant in science and technology.
  • Microsoft Dropped Some AI Data Center Leases, TD Cowen Says — Microsoft has voided data center leases totaling a couple of hundred megawatts of capacity and stopped converting preliminary agreements into formal leases, according to brokerage TD Cowen's checks with supply chain providers. TD Cowen also says Microsoft is redirecting some planned international spending to the US, suggesting a material slowdown in international leasing.
  • DeepSeek and the Sincerest Form of Flattery — DeepSeek appears to have trained its models about 45x more efficiently than other leading-edge models, combining existing techniques—activating only 37bn of 671bn parameters at a time, a smaller memory cache, lower-precision training, and multi-token prediction—alongside self-reinforcement learning. Training cost $5.6m, and its interface charges $0.14 per million tokens versus OpenAI's $7.50.

AI Summary. Indonesia's textiles and apparel industry lost roughly 250,000 jobs over two years, with an industry association estimating another 500,000 at risk, amounting to one in four jobs in the sector. Researchers describe this as a new "China Shock," faster than the earlier wave that eliminated as many as 2.4m US jobs.

Katia Dmitrieva, Philip Heijmans, and Prima Wirayani Bloomberg
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

China’s efforts to maintain its share of global exports despite a drop in its share of American imports is creating an emerging markets backlash as they lose manufacturing employment.

Is a new China shock destroying manufacturing jobs faster than the first?

Core argument: Indonesia's textiles and apparel industry lost roughly 250,000 jobs over the last two years, according to the Indonesia Fiber and Filament Yarn Producer Association, which estimates another 500,000 are at risk in 2025, effectively wiping out one of four jobs in the sector.

Indonesia lost roughly a quarter-million jobs in the textiles and apparel industry over the last two years, according to the Indonesia Fiber and Filament Yarn Producer Association, which has estimated another half-million are at risk in 2025—effectively wiping out one of four jobs in the sector in a matter of years. That pace is considerably faster than the “China Shock” that claimed as many as 2.4 million US jobs from 1999 to 2011. “This is China Shock 2.0 or China Shock 3.0,” says Gordon Hanson, a professor of urban policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and one of the authors of the research paper that coined the name of the phenomenon. “China has this immense manufacturing capacity, and the goods have to go somewhere.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Indonesia's textiles and apparel industry lost roughly 250,000 jobs over the last two years, according to the Indonesia Fiber and Filament Yarn Producer Association, which estimates another 500,000 are at risk in 2025, effectively wiping out one of four jobs in the sector.
  2. Indonesia's textile job losses are running considerably faster than the original "China Shock," which claimed as many as 2.4 million US jobs from 1999 to 2011.
  3. Gordon Hanson, a Harvard Kennedy School urban policy professor and co-author of the paper that coined the term, calls the episode "China Shock 2.0 or China Shock 3.0," citing China's immense manufacturing capacity and goods that "have to go somewhere.".

Related Articles:

  • Mexico Targets Chinese Steel Imports With Increased Tariff Of Nearly 80% — Mexico imposed a tariff of nearly 80% on some steel imports, including certain Vietnamese exports of cold-rolled steel sheets, after local producers said Chinese steelmakers had strangled their production. Exporters that prove the steel originates outside China are exempt.
  • Cheap Chinese Cars Are Taking Over Roads From Brazil to South Africa — Inexpensive cars from Chinese makers such as BYD, Chery, Great Wall and SAIC are gaining share in emerging markets, reaching nearly 10% of sales in South Africa, 8% in Turkey and close to a third in Chile. Chinese automakers' market share outside China is projected to rise to 13% by 2030 from 3%.
  • Will China Take Over the Global Auto Industry? — The global auto market has historically been regional, with most cars sold in a region also built there. Overcapacity in China's internal combustion sector, expanding electric-vehicle capacity, ample state bank credit, and a weaker yuan could concentrate global auto production in China absent restrictions such as the US 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

AI Summary. Researchers used a low-cost, lightweight microsatellite to distribute a quantum encryption key nearly 13,000 km between rooftops in Beijing and at Stellenbosch University near Cape Town, encrypting two images. The demonstration is a step toward ultra-secure quantum messaging between any two locations, however distant.

Elizabeth Gibney Nature
Date Posted:

A Chinese team set a distance record in quantum communication by sending an encryption key nearly 13,000 km from China to South Africa via a microsatellite. Quantum key distribution (QKD) establishes ultra-secure messaging between two locations.

Can small satellites enable quantum-encrypted messaging across intercontinental distances?

Core argument: Researchers transmitted a quantum encryption key nearly 13,000 km from a Beijing rooftop to Stellenbosch University near Cape Town, breaking the distance record for quantum communication, in a study published in Nature on 19 March.

Researchers have broken a distance record in quantum communication by sending a secret encryption key nearly 13,000 km from China to South Africa, using a cheap, lightweight ‘microsatellite’. The satellite was able to send pulses of laser light, put into special quantum states, from a rooftop in Beijing to another at Stellenbosch University near Cape Town. The pulses formed a quantum key that was used to encrypt two images — one of China’s Great Wall and one showing part of Stellenbosch’s campus. The feat, a kind of encryption known as quantum key distribution (QKD), is a step towards being able to send ultra-secure messages between any two locations, however distant. It was described in Nature on 19 March.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Researchers transmitted a quantum encryption key nearly 13,000 km from a Beijing rooftop to Stellenbosch University near Cape Town, breaking the distance record for quantum communication, in a study published in Nature on 19 March.
  2. The transmission used a cheap, lightweight "microsatellite" that sent pulses of laser light in special quantum states, forming a quantum key that encrypted two images — one of China's Great Wall and one of part of Stellenbosch's campus.
  3. The demonstration of quantum key distribution is a step towards sending ultra-secure messages between any two locations, however distant.

Related Articles:

  • Quantum Error Correction Below the Surface Code Threshold — Researchers report superconducting quantum processors running surface code memories below the error-correction threshold, with the logical error rate suppressed 2.14x per two-step increase in code distance and a 101-qubit code reaching 0.143% error per cycle. The logical memory outlived its best physical qubit by 2.4x.
  • Physicists Question Microsoft’s Quantum Claim — Physicists outside the work have responded cautiously to Microsoft's topological quantum computing claim, noting that the search for topological qubits and the "Majorana" particles underpinning them has a history of bold announcements later withdrawn. Researchers describe the technology as excruciatingly difficult to actually build.
  • Microsoft’s Majorana 1 Chip Carves New Path for Quantum Computing — Microsoft unveiled Majorana 1, a quantum chip built on a Topological Core architecture using a new materials stack of indium arsenide and aluminum, which the company expects will enable quantum computers capable of solving industrial-scale problems within years rather than decades. The topological superconductor produces a qubit that is fast, small, stable, and digitally controlled.