Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, June 5, 2024

AI Summary. Evidence indicates that policies reducing economic desperation, such as employment and more generous transfer programs, lower property crime and therefore overall crime, but have little systematic relationship to violent crime. The evidence appears at least as strong for the reverse relationship, with uncontrolled violence worsening poverty, joblessness, children's schooling, and mental health.

Jens Ludwig and Kevin Schnepel University of Chicago
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US jobs programs, transfers, and macroeconomic upturns tend to reduce property crime but not serious violent crime, so these programs have little impact on the total social costs of crime, which are driven by serious violence.

Does higher income reduce property crime but not violent crime?

Core argument: The best available evidence suggests that policies reducing economic desperation, such as more jobs or more generous transfer programs, reduce property crime and therefore overall crime, while showing little if any systematic relationship to violent crime.

The best available evidence suggests that policies that reduce economic desperation, like more jobs or more generous transfer programs, reduce property crime and, hence, overall crime (Figure 1). The best available evidence [also] suggests that jobs and transfer programs have little, if any, systematic relationship to violent crime (Figure 1). That’s true for jobs programs or social programs for low-income populations in general, or for specific higher-risk sub-populations like people exiting prison. Economic conditions contribute importantly to property crime but are not the key driver of violent crime. If anything, the evidence seems to be at least as strong for the reverse relationship: Uncontrolled violence exacerbates poverty and joblessness. Exposure to community violence harms children’s schooling outcomes and the mental health of both parents and children. Local economic development is hard when people and businesses are fleeing to safety. The flip side is that anything that helps control [the] violent crime problem can be a massive tailwind for community development efforts.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The best available evidence suggests that policies reducing economic desperation, such as more jobs or more generous transfer programs, reduce property crime and therefore overall crime, while showing little if any systematic relationship to violent crime.
  2. That pattern holds for jobs and social programs aimed at low-income populations broadly and for higher-risk sub-populations such as people exiting prison, with economic conditions contributing importantly to property crime but not driving violent crime.
  3. Evidence for the reverse relationship appears at least as strong: uncontrolled violence exacerbates poverty and joblessness, while exposure to community violence harms children's schooling and the mental health of both parents and children, and local economic development is hard when people and businesses flee to safety.

Related Articles:

  • The Collapse of Broken-Windows Policing in New York City, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, 2013–22 — Arrests for minor "broken-windows" offenses—counted as misdemeanors, violations, and infractions per 100,000 residents—fell 74% in New York, 77% in Washington, DC, and 81% in Los Angeles over the period studied, declining steadily in New York and Los Angeles.
  • Violent Crime Is Falling, But That’s Not the Whole Story — Violent crime in large US cities and some of the largest suburban counties fell 2.6% and homicides fell 10.4% after three straight years of increases, but both remained above pre-pandemic levels, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association. Federal Bureau of Investigation data show a milder pattern because they also cover suburbs, small towns, and rural areas.
  • New York’s Subways Have Less Crime but More Violence — Major crime on New York's subways is on track to run 13.4% below 2019 levels, but ridership remains down about a third, so crime per rider is much higher this year than from 2006 through 2019. Property crime has not risen; violent incidents account for the increase.

AI Summary. Americans earn about $3.7tn a year from interest and dividends, according to the Commerce Department, roughly $770bn more than four years earlier. The Federal Reserve recorded wealth held in stocks, real estate, and other assets such as pensions at the highest level it has ever observed.

David Uberti Wall Street Journal
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Americans earned ~ $3.7T in annualized investment income in Q1 – up $770B from 2020. In the last quarter of 2023, wealth held in stocks, real estate, and other assets such as pensions reached the highest level ever recorded.

Is American investment income at its highest level ever?

Core argument: Americans earned about $3.7 trillion from interest and dividends in the first quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Commerce Department, up roughly $770 billion from four years earlier.

Americans in the first quarter earned about $3.7 trillion from interest and dividends at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Commerce Department, up roughly $770 billion from four years earlier. In the last quarter of 2023, wealth held in stocks, real estate and other assets such as pensions reached the highest level ever observed by the Federal Reserve.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Americans earned about $3.7 trillion from interest and dividends in the first quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Commerce Department, up roughly $770 billion from four years earlier.
  2. Wealth held by Americans in stocks, real estate and other assets such as pensions reached the highest level ever observed by the Federal Reserve in the final quarter of 2023.

Related Articles:

  • Wealth Inequality by Age in the Post-Pandemic Era — Americans under 40 held just 4.9% of total U.S. wealth while making up 37% of the adult population, whereas those over 54 held 71.6% with a similar population share. These age gaps narrowed slightly afterward, with the real value of financial assets held by under-40s rising more than 50% versus about 20% for those over 54.
  • Baby-Boomers are Loaded. Why Are They So Stingy? — Household data show that older Americans have shifted from spending more than their income to saving: in the mid-1990s those aged 65-74 spent 10% more than they took in, while since 2015 they have saved about 1% of income. Federal Reserve survey data show the share of retired households reporting saving rose from 46% to 51%.
  • The Rise and Fall of Pandemic Excess Wealth — Real household net worth peaked at about $13tn above its pre-pandemic projected path before falling back to that path, while real financial assets peaked roughly $10tn above trend and then dropped to about $7.3tn below it. The shortfall in financial assets is attributed mainly to lower equity holdings, which fell 17%.

AI Summary. Japan's fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2 in an eighth consecutive annual decline, dropping below 1 in Tokyo, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Births totaled 727,277, down 5.6% from the prior year, while deaths reached almost 1.58m, shrinking the population by 848,659 excluding migration.

Mia Glass and Sarah Hilton Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Japan’s fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.2 last year with 727,277 births, down 5.6% y/y. The country’s population shrank by 848,659, the 17th straight year of decline.

Is Japan's fertility rate still falling to record lows?

Core argument: Japan's fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2, an eighth consecutive decline, with the rate dropping below 1 in Tokyo, according to Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare data.

Japan’s fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.2 last year, in an eighth consecutive decline that underscores the challenges faced by the world’s most elderly country. The figure, an indication of the average number of children a woman is likely to produce over her lifetime, dropped below 1 in Tokyo, according to data published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on Wednesday. The total number of births in Japan last year was 727,277, 5.6% less than the previous year, while the total number of deaths rose to almost 1.58 million, meaning the population shrank by 848,659, the 17th straight fall. The data exclude migration.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Japan's fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2, an eighth consecutive decline, with the rate dropping below 1 in Tokyo, according to Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare data.
  2. Japan recorded 727,277 births, 5.6% fewer than the previous year, while deaths rose to almost 1.58 million, shrinking the population by 848,659 in a 17th straight fall.
  3. Japan's population figures exclude migration, and the fertility rate indicates the average number of children a woman is likely to bear over her lifetime.

Related Articles:

  • East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse — United Nations projections show China's population falling 8%, Japan's 18%, South Korea's 12%, and Taiwan's 8% between 2020 and 2050, while the US population rises 12%. Working-age people per person over 65 are projected to drop to about 1.8 in China and 1.2 in Japan and South Korea.
  • Thoughts and Comments on Demographic Aging and Shrinking — As an arithmetic matter, the greying of societies is driven much more by smaller families than by longer lives, which the author attributes to a withering away of the family. Demographic simulations project that by 2040 couples in their 60s in China will likely have at least one living parent to care for, and many will have two or three.
  • The Wealth of Working Nations — Because of population aging, growth in GDP per capita and GDP per working-age adult have diverged across advanced economies; from 1998 to 2019 Japan's accumulated growth per working-age adult was 31.9% versus 29.5% in the US. The authors find a standard neoclassical growth model calibrated to each country's working-age population tracks output per working-age adult in most economies.

AI Summary. Just 14% of South Korean jobs are at companies with over 250 employees—the lowest share in the OECD, versus 58% in the US—and studies find small Korean service firms are about 30% as productive as large ones, compared with 84% in the Netherlands and 90% in Germany. The author argues this low productivity yields very low wages, depressing fertility.

Snowden Todd Charging Sheep
Date Posted:

Snowden Todd argues that one key driver of South Korea’s low fertility, forecast at 0.68 children/woman this year, is the fact that only 14% of workers are employed by higher productivity, higher wage large enterprises (250+), the lowest in the OECD.

Do unproductive small businesses and low wages depress South Korean fertility?

Core argument: Just 14% of South Korean jobs are at companies with over 250 employees, the lowest share in the OECD, compared with 58% in the United States.

Between the Hyundai apartments and Samsung theme parks, South Korea certainly looks like a nation of big business. But looks can be deceiving: peek beneath the hood and you find that the Republic of Samsung is a nation awash in shitty small businesses. With just 14% of jobs at companies with over 250 employees, South Korea has the lowest proportion of jobs at big companies of any nation in the OECD. Contrast this with the U.S., where 58% of jobs are at such companies. It is truly striking how unproductive South Korea’s small businesses are compared to those in Western nations. The OECD, for example, found small service sector firms in Korea are 30% as productive as larger firms with over 250 workers. In the Netherlands and Germany, that figure is 84 and 90%, respectively. Similarly, the Asian Development Bank found that in 2010, small Korean firms with five to 49 workers were just 22% as productive as firms with over 200 workers. And extremely low productivity manifests just how you might expect: in very low wages.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Just 14% of South Korean jobs are at companies with over 250 employees, the lowest share in the OECD, compared with 58% in the United States.
  2. The OECD found small South Korean service-sector firms are 30% as productive as firms with over 250 workers, versus 84% in the Netherlands and 90% in Germany.
  3. The Asian Development Bank found that in 2010 small Korean firms with 5 to 49 workers were 22% as productive as firms with over 200 workers, and such low productivity translates into very low wages.

Related Articles:

  • Is South Korea’s Economic Miracle Over? — South Korea made two industrial leaps—from basic goods to heavy industry, then to high-tech manufacturing—but between 2005 and 2022 only one new sector, displays, joined its top ten export products. Chinese technology firms have caught up with Korean competitors in nearly every area except the most advanced semiconductors, turning former customers and suppliers into rivals.
  • $75,000 for a Baby? South Korean Businesses Float Incentives As Demographic Crisis Looms — South Korea's total fertility rate fell from 0.78 to 0.72 and is projected to reach 0.68, far below the 2.1 the OECD says is needed for a stable population. Military personnel numbers have dropped below 500,000, schools and universities report shrinking enrollment, and kindergartens have been converted into nursing homes.
  • East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse — United Nations projections show China's population falling 8%, Japan's 18%, South Korea's 12%, and Taiwan's 8% between 2020 and 2050, while the US population rises 12%. Working-age people per person over 65 are projected to drop to about 1.8 in China and 1.2 in Japan and South Korea.

AI Summary. Longitudinal data show that more years spent living with parents is associated with having fewer children, with four extra years of coresidence implying roughly 0.15 to 0.3 fewer children regardless of local housing density. The association persists when comparing individuals with similar lifetime income, early test scores, desired family size, and marital histories.

Lyman Stone Institute for Family Studies
Date Posted:

Within the U.S. people who spent more years living with parents had fewer children. Four extra years with parents implied 0.15 to 0.3 fewer children. @lymanstoneky

Does living with parents longer reduce how many children people have?

Core argument: Four extra years living with parents implied about 0.15–0.3 fewer children, an effect found regardless of area density and considerable in magnitude.

Regardless of area density, people who spent more years living with their parents had fewer children. Four extra years with parents implied about 0.15 to 0.3 fewer children, a quite considerable effect. These longitudinal results should motivate a clearer awareness of what factors absolutely do matter for fertility. Most notably, extending the years that young people live with their parents has a huge negative effect in both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. If I use interaction terms, the huge negative effects of parental coresidence are not substantially diminished: for individuals with similar amounts of lifetime income, living with parents reduces fertility; for individuals with similar early-in-life test scores, living with parents reduces fertility; for individuals with similar early-in-life family size desires, living with parents reduces fertility; for individuals with similar lifetime marital histories, living with parents reduces fertility.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Four extra years living with parents implied about 0.15–0.3 fewer children, an effect found regardless of area density and considerable in magnitude.
  2. The negative fertility effect of parental coresidence is not substantially diminished by interaction terms for lifetime income, early-life test scores, early-life family size desires, or lifetime marital histories.
  3. Extending the years young people live with their parents carries a large negative effect on fertility in both cross-sectional and longitudinal data.

Related Articles:

  • US Births Are Down Again, After the COVID Baby Bust and Rebound — US births declined steadily for years before the pandemic, with almost 600,000 fewer annual births in 2019 than in 2007, a 13% drop. The pandemic-related baby bust and subsequent rebound were short-term deviations from that longer trend, and 2022 birth counts remained below 2019 levels.
  • The Wealthy Are Starting to Have More Babies Than the Poor Again — In developed countries, men's income and education are now generally positively associated with fatherhood, with 70.1% of US men holding graduate or professional degrees having children versus 48.8% of those without a high school diploma. Among advanced economies, those where men take on more housework and child care have higher fertility rates.
  • Fortunate Families? The Effects of Wealth on Marriage and Fertility — Using lottery winners, the authors estimate that wealth windfalls raise the short- and medium-run probability of marriage, an effect driven by male winners. The estimated average effect on marriage dissolution is not statistically distinguishable from zero, but for married women a 1M-SEK windfall nearly doubles the short-run divorce rate, with the effect fading over the long run.

Thursday, June 6, 2024

AI Summary. The authors measure "new work" by identifying newly added US job titles that are textually distinct from existing ones, and find that a local area's initial share of college-educated residents and its population density are the two strongest predictors of employment growth in new work. A high 1980 manufacturing share predicts less new work.

Gueyon Kim, Cassandra Merritt, and Giovanni Peri National Bureau of Economic Research
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The density of four-year colleges in 1980 is the most important single predictor of a region’s employment growth in high-skilled cognitive analytical “new job” categories between 1980 and 2010. @giov_peri @Gueyon_Kim

What local factors best predict where new work emerges?

Core argument: The initial local share of college-educated residents and log population density are the two most significant predictors of employment growth in "new work" across US commuting zones and decades, in an analysis spanning 1980 to 2010.

Our “new work” measure exploits the evolution of lists of job titles [from] US government agencies. Text analysis transforms job titles into multidimensional vectors: for each job title, we calculate the vector-distance from all titles existing in the previous period and consider the most similar title (minimum distance). If this value is above a threshold parameter, we classify the added job title as “new.” We document the importance of the initial local share of college-educated and log population density as the two most significant predictors of [employment growth in] “new work” across [Commuting Zones] CZs and decades. We analyze how exposure to global shocks and the presence of local factors correlate with the emergence of “new work” across commuting zones between 1980 and 2010. To investigate the effect of the local supply of human capital on the creation of “new work,” we use the historical presence and density of 4-year college institutions in the CZ. The importance of the initial local share of college-educated and log population density [are] the two most significant predictors of “new work” across CZs and decades. High manufacturing share in 1980 also strongly (but with a negative sign) predicts “new work.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The initial local share of college-educated residents and log population density are the two most significant predictors of employment growth in "new work" across US commuting zones and decades, in an analysis spanning 1980 to 2010.
  2. A high manufacturing share in 1980 also strongly predicts "new work" across commuting zones, but with a negative sign, while the historical presence and density of 4-year colleges proxies the local supply of human capital.
  3. The "new work" measure converts US government agency job-title lists into multidimensional vectors, classifying an added title as "new" when its minimum vector-distance from all prior-period titles exceeds a threshold parameter.

Related Articles:

AI Summary. Russia's population has been declining for years, with Western estimates of at least 150,000 Russian battlefield deaths in Ukraine, nearly a million people leaving the country after the war began, and births at their lowest level in more than two decades. Russia has pledged to spend up to $157bn over six years on measures supporting families and children.

Betsy McKay and Georgi Kantchev Wall Street Journal
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The Russo-Ukraine War has amplified Russian population decline with at least 150,000 Russian battlefield deaths and almost 1mm young people fleeing the country since the start of the war. In response, Putin has declared 2024 “the year of the family.”

Is Russia's shrinking population a threat to its future?

Core argument: At least 150,000 Russians have died on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to Western estimates, and nearly a million fled the country after the war began, compounding a population decline that predates the war.

Russia’s population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse. At least 150,000 Russians are dead on the battlefield, according to Western estimates. Nearly a million fled the country after the war began. Births are at their lowest level in more than two decades, with bigger-than-average drops in babies born in some regions closest to the fight. The Russian president has called raising the birthrate a national priority. Putin has pledged to spend up to $157 billion on measures to support families and children over the next six years. Russian society itself, he said, has to change, with large families becoming more common. “Motherhood is an exquisite purpose for women,” he said in an address on International Women’s Day in March. Family, he added, is “the most important thing for any woman, no matter what career path she chooses or what professional heights she attains.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. At least 150,000 Russians have died on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to Western estimates, and nearly a million fled the country after the war began, compounding a population decline that predates the war.
  2. Russian births have fallen to their lowest level in more than two decades, with bigger-than-average drops in some regions closest to the fighting.
  3. Vladimir Putin has called raising the birthrate a national priority and pledged to spend up to $157 billion over six years on measures supporting families and children, while urging that large families become more common.

Related Articles:

  • Russian Power in Decline — World Health Organization estimates put remaining life expectancy for 15-year-old Russian males in 2019 at 53.7 years, the same as in Haiti and worse than in 23 of the 46 countries the United Nations classifies as least developed. Projecting from those survival patterns, more than one in four 20-year-old Russian males would die before age 60, twice the European risk.
  • Russians Have Emigrated in Huge Numbers Since the War in Ukraine — An analysis network estimates that between 817,000 and 922,000 people have left Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, roughly 1% of the country's workforce, worsening an acute labour shortage. A Moscow think-tank reported that 35% of manufacturing businesses lacked enough workers, the highest share since 1996.
  • Russia’s Population Nightmare is Going to Get Even Worse — Russia lost an estimated 1.9m–2.8m people beyond its normal demographic decline over a roughly three-year span, combining pandemic deaths, war casualties and emigration. Life expectancy for Russian males aged 15 fell by nearly five years, and women now outnumber men by at least 10m.

AI Summary. A New York Times/Siena College re-interview of nearly 2,000 voters found the group's support for Trump over Biden narrowed from three points to one point after his conviction for falsifying business records. About one-quarter of those who had said they backed Biden in 2020 but would switch to Trump said they would stick with Biden.

Nate Cohn and Ruth Igielnik New York Times
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Circling back with previous respondents, NYT/Siena found a 2pp shift towards Biden after Trump’s conviction in New York. Trump now leads by 1pp. @Nate_Cohn

Does a criminal conviction shift voter support in a presidential race?

Core argument: In re-interviews with nearly 2,000 prior New York Times/Siena College respondents, Trump's lead narrowed from three points in April and May to one point, following his conviction for falsifying business records.

In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records. The group favored Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point. The shift was especially pronounced among the young, nonwhite, and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters who have propelled Mr. Trump to a lead in the early polls. Of the people who previously told us they had voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but would vote for Mr. Trump in 2024, around one-quarter now said they would instead stick with Mr. Biden.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In re-interviews with nearly 2,000 prior New York Times/Siena College respondents, Trump's lead narrowed from three points in April and May to one point, following his conviction for falsifying business records.
  2. About one-quarter of voters who had said they backed Biden in 2020 but would vote for Trump in 2024 told New York Times/Siena College interviewers they would instead stick with Biden.
  3. The shift toward Biden was especially pronounced among the young, nonwhite, and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters who had propelled Trump to a lead in the early polls.

Related Articles:

  • Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden — Polling of registered voters showed Trump ahead of Biden in five of six battleground states — Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania — with Biden leading only in Wisconsin. Trump and Biden were essentially tied among voters aged 18-29 and Hispanic voters, groups that each gave Biden over 60% of their vote in 2020.
  • The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters — Polling shows Trump's narrow national lead is built on gains among voters who pay little attention to politics, don't follow traditional news, and don't vote regularly, while Biden leads among those who voted in the prior presidential election. Almost all of Trump's gains have come from these less engaged voters.
  • American Politics Is Undergoing A Racial Realignment — National election surveys and Gallup polling show the Democratic Party's advantage among Black, Latino, and Asian voters at its lowest level since 1960. The article argues this shift reflects fading civil rights-era ties, a weakening link between income and party choice, and non-white voters with long-held conservative views aligning their votes with those views.

AI Summary. SpaceX's Starship completed its first return from space, with the booster setting down in the Gulf of Mexico and the upper-stage spacecraft surviving atmospheric re-entry for a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The flight was not flawless — the vehicle lost many heat-shield tiles and sustained a damaged flap — and technical hurdles remain.

Kenneth Chang New York Times
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SpaceX claims its Starship accomplished a set of ambitious goals on Thursday, including soft landings of both the booster and main Starship components.

Has the largest rocket ever built returned intact from space?

Core argument: SpaceX's Starship completed its first return from space, with the booster setting down gently in the Gulf of Mexico and the second stage traveling halfway around the world to a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.

After it dropped away from the upper stage, the booster was able to gently set down in the Gulf of Mexico while the second-stage spacecraft traveled halfway around the world, survived the searing temperatures of re-entering the atmosphere, and also made a controlled splashdown, in the Indian Ocean. The flight was not flawless, and tough technical hurdles remain. The successes, surpassing what was accomplished during the previous test flight in March, offered optimism that Mr. Musk can pull off his vision of a rocket that is the biggest and most powerful ever and yet entirely reusable. “Despite loss of many tiles and a damaged flap, Starship made it all the way to a soft landing in the ocean!” Mr. Musk wrote on X.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. SpaceX's Starship completed its first return from space, with the booster setting down gently in the Gulf of Mexico and the second stage traveling halfway around the world to a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
  2. Elon Musk wrote on X that Starship made it to a soft landing in the ocean despite the loss of many tiles and a damaged flap, and the flight was not flawless, with tough technical hurdles remaining.
  3. The flight surpassed what was accomplished in the previous test flight in March, offering optimism that Musk can pull off his vision of a rocket that is the biggest and most powerful ever and yet entirely reusable.

Related Articles:

  • Building an Enduring Advantage in the Third Space Age — The United States and China each logged their highest-ever annual launch rates, at 103 and 66 launches, while Russia fell to 19 and Europe recorded three. The US accounted for roughly half of global launches but 81% of effective launch capacity, since Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy comprised 93% of US launches.
  • SpaceX Starship Nears Orbit, But Is Lost Before Return to Earth — SpaceX's Starship rocket flew farther and faster than in its previous test flights, separating from its Super Heavy booster and reaching near-orbit before contact was lost during its return to Earth. SpaceX confirmed the vehicle was lost, likely destroyed, cutting the mission short.
  • Space: The Missing Element of Your Strategy — Private-sector funding of space-related companies has topped $10bn, close to a tenfold rise over the past decade, though the US government remains the largest source of space funding. If current momentum continues, commercial funding for space ventures could surpass government funding within 20 years.

AI Summary. A genetic analysis indicates the H5N1 bird flu virus jumped at least three times from wild birds to marine mammals along South America's Pacific coast and then acquired mutations enabling spread between elephant seals, which died in large numbers. The authors warn the virus could similarly adapt to cause large-scale infections in other mammals, including humans.

Apoorva Mandavilli New York Times
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Scientists confirmed that an H5N1 mutation allowed spread among elephant seals, causing up to 95% mortality for Argentine elephant seal pups born last year. Since March H5N1 has been detected in cows in nine states, and in wastewater from several others.

Has the bird flu virus evolved to spread between mammals?

Core argument: A genetic analysis suggests H5N1 jumped at least three times from wild birds to marine mammals along South America's Pacific Coast and then evolved to spread between elephant seals, which died in massive numbers.

Elephant seals in South America died in massive numbers because the bird flu virus acquired mutations that allowed it to spread among mammals, according to a new study. A genetic analysis suggests that H5N1 jumped at least three times from wild birds to marine mammals on the Pacific Coast of South America, and then evolved to spread between elephant seals. The research offers the first genetic and epidemiological evidence of bird flu virus transmission among mammals. And the findings hold a warning: The virus, called H5N1, may similarly transform to cause large-scale infections in other mammalian species, including people. The bird flu virus is responsible for an ongoing outbreak in dairy cows in the United States. Since March, it has been detected in cows in nine states, and in wastewater from several others.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A genetic analysis suggests H5N1 jumped at least three times from wild birds to marine mammals along South America's Pacific Coast and then evolved to spread between elephant seals, which died in massive numbers.
  2. The study offers the first genetic and epidemiological evidence of bird flu transmission among mammals, and warns that H5N1 may similarly transform to cause large-scale infections in other mammalian species, including people.
  3. H5N1 is responsible for an ongoing outbreak in U.S. dairy cows, detected since March in cows in nine states and in wastewater from several others.

Related Articles:

  • Animal Farm — The H5N1 bird flu virus spreads among wild aquatic birds before passing to domesticated animals, with highly pathogenic strains killing 90%-100% of infected poultry within 48 hours and causing the death or culling of 82m US poultry and $2-$3bn in losses. The virus has also spread to US cattle, reducing milk production in infected herds.
  • Bird Flu Is Infecting More Mammals. What Does That Mean for Us? — The H5N1 bird flu strain now circulating globally has spread not only among farmed and wild birds but into many other animals, unlike earlier versions of the virus. Outbreaks in mink and in South American sea mammals suggest the virus most likely adapted to spread between mammals.
  • This May Be Our Last Chance to Halt Bird Flu in Humans and We Are Blowing It — An outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in U.S. dairy cattle has spread to at least 33 herds across eight states with one confirmed human case, and Texas's agriculture commissioner suspects it began earlier and may have infected up to 40% of Texas Panhandle herds. An H5N1 expert argues containment becomes unlikely once around 10 human cases are detected.