Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, April 10, 2024

AI Summary. Core consumer price inflation has run hot for three consecutive months, at a 3.5% annual rate over 12 months and 4.6% over the past three, undercutting the view that the early-year jump was a seasonal anomaly. Shelter inflation has plateaued around a 5.5% annual rate rather than falling as bottom-up forecasts assumed.

Jason Furman @jasonfurman
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.@jasonfurman notes that “Core CPI came in very hot for the third month in a row” at 3.5% annualized and that Core Services CPI ex Housing “has also been running hotter than you would expect for a normal inflationary economy.”

Is core inflation running too hot to be a seasonal fluke?

Core argument: Core CPI ran hot for a third consecutive month, at 4.6% annualized over both the past one and three months, versus 3.2% over six months and 3.5% over 12 months, per Furman.

Core CPI came in very hot for the third month in a row. The numbers are not kind to the thesis that January was a seasonal anomaly. 12 months: 3.5%. 6 months: 3.2%. 3 months: 4.6%. 1 month: 4.6%. The bottom-up forecasts of inflation coming down were premised on much larger reductions in shelter growth than we've seen. It has, as widely expected, come down from its 9% annual rate high but has plateaued at around 5.5% annual rate. You also see it in core services excluding shelter, which the Fed and others have frequently tied to wage growth, which has also been running hotter than you would expect for a normal inflationary economy.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Core CPI ran hot for a third consecutive month, at 4.6% annualized over both the past one and three months, versus 3.2% over six months and 3.5% over 12 months, per Furman.
  2. Furman argues the three-month run of hot core CPI readings undercuts the thesis that January was a seasonal anomaly.
  3. Shelter inflation has fallen from its 9% annual-rate high but plateaued at around a 5.5% annual rate, short of the larger reductions that bottom-up forecasts of falling inflation assumed, according to Furman.

Related Articles:

  • Importing Shelter Inflation — Shelter costs make up about 30% of the consumer price index, and their monthly inflation appears to be stabilizing above pre-pandemic rates rather than delivering the disinflation forward-looking data had implied. The author suggests this may be related to a surge in migration, estimated at 3.3m migrants in a year.
  • The Boomer-Millennial Housing Battle Cools — Demographic needs are outweighing affordability in the housing market, with the share of first-time buyers returning nearly to pre-pandemic levels despite high prices and interest rates. One in four Millennial buyers reported purchasing because they had no choice, and Millennials again make up the largest group of homebuyers.
  • The US Housing Market Is Very Quickly Becoming Unaffordable — Home prices in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Orlando, and Tampa now stand at 6 to 7x incomes, exceeding the ratios reached at the peak of the early 2000s housing bubble in each of those metro areas. All four shifted from affordable, to unaffordable, back to affordable, and into unaffordable territory again.

AI Summary. Using a method that combines a structural asset pricing model with machine learning to measure expectational errors, the authors estimate that stock market investors systematically overreact to perceived fundamental shocks in economic news. They attribute this to investors overstating news implications for payout-relevant factors while understating, in relative terms, implications for discount rates.

Francesco Bianchi, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma National Bureau of Economic Research
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Investor overreaction to news events may reduce market volatility: “the sum total of different individual overreactions to multiple simultaneous shocks can dampen rather than amplify their combined market impact.” @Francesco_Bia @LudvigsonSydney

Do stock investors systematically overreact to economic news?

Core argument: The authors estimate that investors systematically overreact to perceptions about multiple fundamental shocks in a macro-dynamic system, producing asymmetric compositional effects when several counteracting shocks occur simultaneously in real-world news events.

[We study] a variety of belief distortions in market reactions to hundreds of economic news events using a new methodology that synthesizes estimation of a structural asset pricing model with algorithmic machine learning to quantify bias. Human bias is [seen as] a genuine ex ante expectational error, and bias in expectations is measured relative to the machine forecast, not relative to the ex post outcome. We estimate that investors systematically overreact to perceptions about multiple fundamental shocks in a macro-dynamic system, generating asymmetric compositional effects when several counteracting shocks occur simultaneously in real-world events. News is overreacted to because investors systematically overstate its implications for payout-relevant factors (while understating in relative terms its implications for discount rates).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors estimate that investors systematically overreact to perceptions about multiple fundamental shocks in a macro-dynamic system, producing asymmetric compositional effects when several counteracting shocks occur simultaneously in real-world news events.
  2. Overreaction to news arises, by the authors' estimates, because investors systematically overstate its implications for payout-relevant factors while understating, in relative terms, its implications for discount rates.
  3. The study measures belief distortions across hundreds of economic news events by combining estimation of a structural asset pricing model with algorithmic machine learning, defining bias relative to the machine forecast rather than the ex post outcome.

Related Articles:

  • Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence From 64,000 Global Stocks — A study of about 64,000 global stocks estimates net global stock market wealth creation of $75.7tn, with returns highly concentrated: the top 159 firms (0.25%) account for half of net wealth creation and the top 1,526 (2.39%) account for all of it. Fewer than half of stocks beat one-month US Treasury bills, 42.6% of non-US and 44.8% of US stocks.
  • Stocks For The Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No — Revised historical data that correct for survivorship bias—most notably including the Second Bank of the United States, which reached nearly 30% of US market capitalization before collapsing—show 19th-century stock returns differed from 20th-century returns, with repeated periods in which stocks underperformed bonds.
  • Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation, and Implications — The implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 — the forward-looking extra return investors demand for holding stocks over risk-free assets — has fallen to 4.23%, its lowest level since 2008, as the market has climbed.

AI Summary. Felony assaults in New York City's subway have risen two- to threefold since the pandemic, a pattern that does not match the rest of the country and appears connected to local criminal justice practices. Research finds that ending cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies is associated with increased repeat offending among those previously charged with violent felonies.

Justin Fox Bloomberg
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Felonious assaults on New York City’s subways are up significantly since the pandemic. @foxjust suggests this “may have something to do with local criminal justice practices,” including the ending of cash bail.

Does ending cash bail increase repeat offending among violent offenders?

Core argument: New York subway felony assaults show a two- or threefold pandemic increase, while subway homicides remain so few that one or two flukey occurrences can have a big impact on the totals.

While the number of subway homicides remains so small that one or two flukey occurrences can have a big impact, the far more numerous felony assaults show a two- or threefold pandemic increase. The failure of the criminal justice system to rein in people with long histories of violence raises some questions about the bail reforms enacted in New York in 2019 and other local changes in prosecution and sentencing. New York’s continuing assault problem, which does not match what’s going on in the rest of the country, seems likelier to have something to do with local criminal justice practices. The reform-friendly Data Collaborative for Justice has found that while ending cash bail in New York for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies hasn’t resulted in overall increases in recidivism or crime, it does seem to have led to increased recidivism among those previously charged with violent felonies.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. New York subway felony assaults show a two- or threefold pandemic increase, while subway homicides remain so few that one or two flukey occurrences can have a big impact on the totals.
  2. The reform-friendly Data Collaborative for Justice found that ending cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies in New York did not raise overall recidivism or crime but appears to have increased recidivism among those previously charged with violent felonies.
  3. New York's continuing assault problem does not match what is happening in the rest of the country, and seems likelier to relate to local criminal justice practices, including the 2019 bail reforms and changes in prosecution and sentencing.

Related Articles:

  • The Collapse of Broken-Windows Policing in New York City, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, 2013–22 — Arrests for minor "broken-windows" offenses—counted as misdemeanors, violations, and infractions per 100,000 residents—fell 74% in New York, 77% in Washington, DC, and 81% in Los Angeles over the period studied, declining steadily in New York and Los Angeles.
  • New York’s Subways Have Less Crime but More Violence — Major crime on New York's subways is on track to run 13.4% below 2019 levels, but ridership remains down about a third, so crime per rider is much higher this year than from 2006 through 2019. Property crime has not risen; violent incidents account for the increase.
  • “New York, Just Like I Pictured It” — New York City retains advantages in sheer size, business diversification, and global financial dominance, with its labor force, airport use, and seated diners back to pre-pandemic levels and low residential and industrial vacancy rates. But mass transit use is 73% of prior levels, office vacancy is 18%, and about 35% of workdays are done from home.

AI Summary. Chip-design company Arm forecasts that without greater efficiency gains, artificial intelligence data centers could consume 20-25% of US power requirements by the end of the decade, versus roughly 4% or less today. The International Energy Agency estimates a single ChatGPT request uses 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, nearly 10x an average Google search.

Peter Landers Wall Street Journal
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The CEO of Arm forecasts that without efficiency gains by the end of the decade, “AI data centers could consume as much as 20-25% of US power requirements” vs. 4% today.

The CEO of Arm forecasts that without efficiency gains by the end of the decade, “AI data centers could consume as much as...

Will AI data centers consume a quarter of US power?

Core argument: Arm CEO Rene Haas forecasts that without greater efficiency, AI data centers could consume 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements by the end of the decade, up from probably 4% or less today, which he calls hardly sustainable.

In a January report, the International Energy Agency said a request to ChatGPT requires 2.9 watt-hours of electricity on average—equivalent to turning on a 60-watt lightbulb for just under three minutes. That is nearly 10 times as much as the average Google search. The agency said power demand by the AI industry is expected to grow by at least 10 times between 2023 and 2026. Rene Haas, chief executive of chip-design company Arm forecasts that without greater efficiency, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less,” he said. “That’s hardly very sustainable, to be honest with you.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Arm CEO Rene Haas forecasts that without greater efficiency, AI data centers could consume 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements by the end of the decade, up from probably 4% or less today, which he calls hardly sustainable.
  2. The International Energy Agency said in a January report that an average ChatGPT request requires 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, nearly 10 times the average Google search and equivalent to running a 60-watt lightbulb for just under three minutes.
  3. The International Energy Agency expects power demand by the AI industry to grow by at least 10 times between 2023 and 2026.

Related Articles:

  • The AI Transition One Year Later: On Track, but Macro Impact Still Several Years Off — Investment in AI hardware is projected to rise substantially as a precursor to integrating AI into business processes, with the investment cycle estimated to peak at 2–2½% of GDP and early signs visible among AI-enabling companies. The authors estimate generative AI could raise developed-market labor productivity growth by 1.5pp annually over a 10-year adoption period, roughly 15% cumulatively.
  • Electricity 2024 — More than 8,000 data centers operate globally, with about 33% in the United States, 16% in Europe, and close to 10% in China. US data center electricity use is projected to rise from roughly 200 TWh in 2022, about 4% of US electricity demand, to almost 260 TWh, or 6% of total demand.
  • The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly — Dominion Energy, which serves 6m customers, has raised its projected power needs for the coming decade, attributing the change to data center demand. McKinsey, BCG, and S&P Global all expect US power demand to grow 13%-15% annually through 2030, and rising transformer costs alongside electrification could make electricity scarcer.

AI Summary. Replacing existing power lines with advanced conductors made from state-of-the-art materials, a technique known as advanced reconductoring, could roughly double electric grid capacity in many parts of the US and accommodate much more wind and solar power. Many US utilities have been slow to adopt it due to unfamiliarity with the technology and regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles.

Brad Plumer New York Times
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Existing power lines use steel cores surrounded by aluminum strands. Replacing these with carbon fiber-based cores, a process known as “advanced reconductoring,” could double the capacity of current lines.

Existing power lines use steel cores surrounded by aluminum strands. Replacing these with carbon fiber-based cores, a...

Can replacing existing power lines quickly double grid capacity?

Core argument: Replacing existing U.S. power lines with cables made from state-of-the-art materials, known as advanced reconductoring, could roughly double grid capacity in many parts of the country, making room for much more wind and solar power.

Replacing existing power lines with cables made from state-of-the-art materials could roughly double the capacity of the electric grid in many parts of the country, making room for much more wind and solar power. This technique, known as “advanced reconductoring,” is widely used in other countries. Many U.S. utilities have been slow to embrace it because of their unfamiliarity with the technology as well as regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles. Replacing old lines can be done relatively quickly. In 2011, AEP, a utility in Texas, urgently needed to deliver more power to the Lower Rio Grande Valley to meet soaring population growth. It would have taken too long to acquire land and permits and to build towers for a new transmission line. Instead, AEP replaced 240 miles of wires on an existing line with advanced conductors, which took less than three years and increased the carrying capacity of the lines by 40%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Replacing existing U.S. power lines with cables made from state-of-the-art materials, known as advanced reconductoring, could roughly double grid capacity in many parts of the country, making room for much more wind and solar power.
  2. AEP replaced 240 miles of wires on an existing line serving the Lower Rio Grande Valley in less than three years, increasing the carrying capacity of those lines by 40%, after concluding a new transmission line would take too long to permit and build.
  3. Many U.S. utilities have been slow to adopt advanced reconductoring because of unfamiliarity with the technology and regulatory and bureaucratic hurdles, even though the technique is widely used in other countries.

Related Articles:

  • Resurgent US Electricity Demand Sparks Power Grid Warnings — US electricity demand is growing after years of stagnation, driven by artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and announced industrial projects, prompting warnings about power grid stability. Nationwide forecasts for five-year electricity demand growth rose from 2.6% to 4.7%, based on utility filings to federal regulators, with retail sales projected at a record.
  • Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions — Under a scenario based on announced government pledges, global electricity demand is projected to grow 2.7% per year, more than doubling from just under 25,000 terawatt-hours to nearly 54,000 terawatt-hours by 2050. Hydrogen production via electrolysis and electric vehicles account for more than half of that projected growth.
  • Gridlock: How a Lack of Power Lines Will Delay the Age of Renewables — A study led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found nearly 2,000GW of solar, wind and storage projects waiting in queues to connect to US long-distance transmission grids, more than the installed capacity of the entire US power plant fleet. The authors find only about a fifth of such requested projects are typically built.

Thursday, April 11, 2024

AI Summary. Using admission-score cutoffs across all 35 Texas public universities, the author estimates that marginally admitted students complete an additional year of four-year education, are 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree, and earn 5–10% more than marginally rejected peers, with gains driven by students who otherwise would not attend a four-year school.

Jack Mountjoy National Bureau of Economic Research
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Data from public universities in Texas show students whose test scores marginally qualify for their target 4-year state college have higher educational attainment and eventually earn 10% more than counterparts whose scores marginally fail to qualify.

Do marginally admitted public university students earn more than rejected peers?

Core argument: Marginally admitted students at Texas public universities complete an additional year of four-year education, are 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree, and eventually earn 5–10 percent more than marginally rejected but otherwise identical students.

I use administrative admission records spanning all 35 public universities in Texas, which collectively enroll 10 percent of American public university students, to systematically identify and employ decentralized cutoffs in SAT/ACT scores that generate discontinuities in admission and enrollment. The typical marginally admitted student completes an additional year of education in the four-year sector, is 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree, and eventually earns 5-10 percent more than [a] marginally rejected but otherwise identical counterpart. I derive tight bounds on separate effects for students on the extensive margin of the four-year sector versus those who would fall back to a less-preferred four-year school if rejected. These results revealed a dominant role for the extensive margin in driving the average marginal returns.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Marginally admitted students at Texas public universities complete an additional year of four-year education, are 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree, and eventually earn 5–10 percent more than marginally rejected but otherwise identical students.
  2. The study draws on administrative admission records from all 35 public universities in Texas, which together enroll 10 percent of American public university students, exploiting decentralized SAT/ACT cutoffs that generate discontinuities in admission and enrollment.
  3. Tight bounds on separate effects indicate a dominant role for the extensive margin of the four-year sector, rather than students who would fall back to a less-preferred four-year school, in driving average marginal returns.

Related Articles:

  • The Misguided War On The SAT — The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a nationwide test of elementary and middle school students with no test-prep industry around it, shows racial and economic gaps closely resembling those on the SAT and ACT. Researchers argue this indicates college admissions tests measure underlying learning, making score disparities a symptom rather than a cause of inequality.
  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — Children from top-1% families are more than 2x as likely as middle-class students with comparable SAT/ACT scores to attend an Ivy-Plus college, with two-thirds of the gap attributable to higher admissions rates. The authors attribute this advantage to legacy preferences, weight on non-academic credentials, and athlete recruitment.
  • How Ivy League Schools Tilt Your Odds in the Lottery of Life — Research classifying incomes by percentile finds that among top students, 19% of those who attended elite schools reach the richest 1% of the income distribution, versus 12% of those who did not. The authors compare these upper-tail outcomes to lottery tickets: elite schools offer many, most worth nothing, a few a jackpot.

AI Summary. All net US employment growth since early 2020 has been among foreign-born workers, and without immigration the US working-age population would be shrinking — a pattern likely to persist for the rest of the decade. The jump in immigration appears to be enabling a soft landing that most economists had thought impossible.

Justin Fox Bloomberg
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All of the increase in US employment since 2020 has been among foreign-born workers. “Without immigration, the US working-age population would be shrinking, and this seems likely to remain the case for the rest of the decade.” @foxjust

Is immigration the only thing keeping the US working-age population from shrinking?

Core argument: All of the increase in US employment since February 2020 has been among foreign-born workers, and the jump in immigration appears to be enabling the soft landing most economists deemed impossible as of late 2022.

All the increase in employment in the US since February 2020 has been among foreign-born workers. The sudden jump in immigration seems to be enabling the soft landing that most economists saw as impossible as of late 2022. There have been trade-offs. The Great Resignation coincided with what David Autor dubbed the “unexpected compression,” in which low-wage workers made big pay gains relative to those with higher incomes. That period of outperformance ended in the middle of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Wage Growth Tracker. But without immigration, the US working-age population would be shrinking, and this seems likely to remain the case for the rest of the decade. Immigrants are taking all the jobs because, on net, no one else is available.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. All of the increase in US employment since February 2020 has been among foreign-born workers, and the jump in immigration appears to be enabling the soft landing most economists deemed impossible as of late 2022.
  2. Without immigration, the US working-age population would be shrinking, a condition likely to persist for the rest of the decade, leaving immigrants to fill jobs because on net no one else is available.
  3. The low-wage workers' pay gains relative to higher earners, which David Autor dubbed the "unexpected compression," ended in mid-2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Wage Growth Tracker.

Related Articles:

  • Immigration and the U.S. Economy Since the Pandemic: An Accounting Exercise — The US native-born labor force fell by about 1.2m over four years, a decline driven overwhelmingly by population aging, while foreign-born labor supply grew by about 3m, leaving the overall labor force up roughly 2m. Without immigration, the total US labor force would have shrunk.
  • The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market — Labor market tightness produced an unexpected compression in the US wage distribution, with disproportionate wage growth at the bottom reducing the college wage premium and reversing nearly 40% of the rise in 90-10 wage inequality since 1980. The authors attribute this in part to increased competition for low-wage workers.
  • Employment Pivot — The Federal Reserve now indicates that a surge in migration will expand labor supply and moderate wage growth without requiring higher unemployment, making strong job gains compatible with potential rate cuts. Overall jobs data show native-born employment little changed since 2020 while foreign-born employment rose by 3m.

AI Summary. One scenario, given a 30% chance, is that the US is emerging from secular stagnation as fifteen years of government deficits resolved a safe-asset shortage that had pinned short-term Treasury rates near their lower bound, with a high-pressure economy and an AI boom lifting productivity. Prudence would mean an annual deficit of $800bn, 3% of GDP, rather than $1.7tn, 6%.

Brad DeLong Grasping Reality
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After yesterday’s CPI print @delong has reduced the likelihood a delayed deflationary cycle to 40% and now sees an equal likelihood of an AI-powered boom or a nascent fiscal crisis in the US.

Are we emerging from secular stagnation into faster productivity growth?

Core argument: DeLong assigns a 30% chance that the U.S. has emerged from secular stagnation, with fifteen years of government deficits resolving the safe-asset shortage that had pinned short-term Treasury rates near their lower bound and constrained central banks.

A scenario is that we are now emerging from the decade and more of secular stagnation: The debt accumulations of fifteen years of government deficits have resolved the safe-asset shortage which had kept short-term Treasury interest rates very near their lower bound and greatly reduced central banks’ abilities to manage the economy. Faster productivity growth from a high-pressure economy raises returns and investments and validates the current interest-rate configuration as high expected future profits from expansion drive investment ahead of savings. An AI-boom in which scaling laws hold for long enough that the build-out of tech capital does produce some very useful and valuable use cases further amplifies productivity growth. In that case, we get back to the growth configuration we had in the Clinton years—The chance of this scenario? I guess it at 30%. The other 30%? For more than fifteen years I have been saying that the bond market will tell us when it is time to start worrying again about moving the federal budget closer to balance. It would certainly be prudent to have a current annual deficit of not $1.7 trillion a year—6% of GDP—but rather $800 billion—3% of GDP.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. DeLong assigns a 30% chance that the U.S. has emerged from secular stagnation, with fifteen years of government deficits resolving the safe-asset shortage that had pinned short-term Treasury rates near their lower bound and constrained central banks.
  2. In DeLong's optimistic scenario, faster productivity growth from a high-pressure economy plus an AI boom in which scaling laws hold long enough to yield valuable use cases validates the current interest-rate configuration and restores Clinton-era growth.
  3. DeLong argues it would be prudent to cut the annual federal deficit from $1.7 trillion, or 6% of GDP, to $800 billion, or 3% of GDP, having said for more than fifteen years that the bond market would signal when to worry.

Related Articles:

  • The Big Picture: Back to the Future — The secular backdrop has shifted from disinflationary to more inflationary, with interest rates no longer near zero and real rates no longer negative. Household balance sheets are as healthy as they have been in 20 years, leaving room to borrow, while the public sector is as indebted as it has ever been.
  • When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? — The authors estimate that U.S. debt held by the public cannot exceed roughly 200% of GDP even under favorable market conditions, and that under current policy the ratio reaches 175–200% within about 20 years. After that point, they argue, no tax increases or spending cuts could avert default or inflationary debt monetization.
  • Living with High Public Debt — High public debt ratios are likely to persist because large sustained primary budget surpluses are politically unrealistic, real interest rates are already very low, faster global growth is hard to engineer, inflation is not a sustainable route to reducing debt, and financial repression is less feasible amid liberalized markets.

AI Summary. U.S. Centers for Disease Control data on nonfatal self-harm show a 518% increase in hospitalizations following emergency department visits among girls aged 10–14, with a large rise also among girls aged 15–19. Because suicide deaths vary by sex and age, low suicide rates among teen girls do not mean teen girls are not struggling.

Zach Rausch After Babel
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Hospitalizations for intentional self-harm for American girls 10-14 increased 518% between 2007-2009 and 2021 and 91% for the 15-19 cohort. These increases imply a high degree of distress for young American women. @ZachMRausch

Do low suicide rates mean teen girls are not struggling?

Core argument: Hospitalizations following emergency department visits for self-harm among 10–14-year-old girls rose 518% since 2007–08, based on CDC nonfatal self-harm data covering 2001–2021; rates for boys in that age group were unavailable.

Using CDC nonfatal self-harm data from 2001-2021, we can zoom in on trends among adolescents who first go to the emergency department and are subsequently hospitalized. Since 2007-08, there has been a 518% increase in hospitalizations for 10-14-year-old girls. (The rates for 10-14-year-old boys were unavailable). The data for 15-19-year-old girls also shows a large rise. Suicide is a sex and age-specific phenomenon. Young children rarely die by suicide, while adults do so far more often. Men almost always die by suicide at higher rates than women. This is not because the average adolescent or woman is that much happier than the average adult or man. Instead, there are many cultural and biological forces that drive individuals from some groups to die by suicide at higher rates than individuals in other groups (a topic for another post). In other words, we cannot assume just because rates of suicide for teen girls are low that teen girls are not struggling in unprecedented ways.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Hospitalizations following emergency department visits for self-harm among 10–14-year-old girls rose 518% since 2007–08, based on CDC nonfatal self-harm data covering 2001–2021; rates for boys in that age group were unavailable.
  2. CDC nonfatal self-harm data also show a large rise in emergency department visits leading to hospitalization among 15–19-year-old girls.
  3. Suicide rates vary by sex and age, with young children rarely dying by suicide and men dying by suicide at higher rates than women, so low suicide rates among teen girls do not establish that teen girls are not struggling.

Related Articles:

  • Suicide Rates Are up for Gen Z Across the Anglosphere, Especially for Girls — Rates of self-harm episodes among adolescents in the U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have increased since 2010, especially for girls, reaching record-high levels in all five countries. The author links this to a five-year period in which adolescents shifted from basic phones to smartphones with continuous internet and social media access.
  • Suicide Rates for Girls Are Rising. Are Smartphones to Blame? — Across 17 countries, suicide rates among girls aged 10-19 rose from an average of 3.0 per 100,000 people to 3.5, while the higher rate among boys, at 6.1 per 100,000, barely changed. Hospitalisations for self-harm among teenage girls climbed in all 11 countries with data, by an average of 143%, versus 49% for boys.
  • Teens, Social Media and Technology 2023 — About nine-in-ten U.S. teens ages 13 to 17 say they use YouTube, making it the most widely used platform in Pew Research Center's survey, followed by TikTok (63%), Snapchat (60%), and Instagram (59%). Facebook use among teens fell from 71% in 2014-2015 to 33%, and Twitter's teen user base also shrank over the past decade.

AI Summary. Interceptions of people at sea by Tunisian authorities doubled to 81,000, and the European Union is projected to spend €278mn on migration in Tunisia, with two-thirds of one €105mn package dedicated to border management. Critics argue that outsourcing border enforcement is a short-term fix that leaves the EU open to blackmail by host governments.

Laura Dubois and Adam Samson Financial Times
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Last year 292,000 illegal immigrants managed to enter the EU, the highest level since 2016. In response, the EU is increasing efforts to outsource border management to Northern African countries such as Tunisia and Libya. @FT

Does paying other countries to control migration work for Europe?

Core argument: Tunisian authorities' interceptions of people at sea doubled to 81,000, and two-thirds of the €105mn pledged under the EU deal is dedicated to border management, according to figures seen by the Financial Times.

Interceptions of people at sea by the Tunisian authorities doubled last year to 81,000. Two-thirds of the €105mn pledged under the deal are dedicated to border management, according to figures seen by the FT. Overall, the EU is projected to spend €278mn on migration in Tunisia until 2027. The 2017 agreement between Italy and Libya, under which the EU pledged funds to curb migration, including €59mn to strengthen the Libyan coastguard. Critics of the policy point out that outsourcing the challenges with immigration is only a short-term fix that also leaves the EU open to blackmail. Erdoğan, for example, has repeatedly used refugees as a bargaining chip to extract more funds and concessions from Europe. In 2020, he “opened the gates” to Europe, prompting thousands of Syrian refugees to attempt to cross the Greek border. In response, Greece deployed tear gas and live rounds against them.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Tunisian authorities' interceptions of people at sea doubled to 81,000, and two-thirds of the €105mn pledged under the EU deal is dedicated to border management, according to figures seen by the Financial Times.
  2. The EU is projected to spend €278mn on migration in Tunisia until 2027, and under a 2017 agreement between Italy and Libya it pledged funds to curb migration, including €59mn to strengthen the Libyan coastguard.
  3. Critics argue that outsourcing immigration challenges is a short-term fix that leaves the EU open to blackmail, citing Erdoğan's 2020 decision to "open the gates," which prompted thousands of Syrian refugees to attempt to cross the Greek border and drew tear gas and live rounds from Greece.

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AI Summary. Apple assembled $14bn of iPhones in India in its last fiscal year, doubling output there to roughly 14%, or about 1 in 7, of its iPhones. China remains Apple's largest iPhone-making hub and biggest overseas market, though its revenue there is falling amid competition from rivals such as Huawei.

Sankalp Phartiyal Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Apple doubled iPhone production in India last fiscal year, assembling 14% of iPhones there as it accelerates efforts to move manufacturing out of China.

Apple doubled iPhone production in India last fiscal year, assembling 14% of iPhones there as it accelerates efforts to move...

Is smartphone manufacturing shifting from China to India?

Core argument: Apple assembled $14 billion of iPhones in India last fiscal year, doubling production, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to be named because the information isn't public.

Apple assembled $14 billion of iPhones in India last fiscal year, doubling production in a sign it’s accelerating a push to diversify beyond China. The US tech giant now makes as much as 14% or about 1 in 7 of its marquee devices from India, people familiar with the matter said, declining to be named as the information isn’t public. The ramp-up suggests Apple is accelerating efforts to cut its longstanding reliance on China as geopolitical tensions mount. The country remains its largest iPhone-making hub and biggest overseas market. But that’s also where Apple’s revenues are plunging, hit by ascendant rivals such as Huawei Technologies Co. and an expanding ban on the use of foreign technology in the workplace.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Apple assembled $14 billion of iPhones in India last fiscal year, doubling production, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to be named because the information isn't public.
  2. India now accounts for as much as 14%, or about 1 in 7, of Apple's iPhones, a ramp-up that suggests Apple is accelerating efforts to cut its reliance on China.
  3. China remains Apple's largest iPhone-making hub and biggest overseas market, though Apple's revenues there are plunging, hit by rivals such as Huawei Technologies Co. and an expanding ban on foreign technology in the workplace.

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  • Apple’s Complex, Secretive Gamble to Move Beyond China — Apple is shifting some production out of China—iPhones and accessories to India, AirPods and Mac assembly to Vietnam, some Mac output to Malaysia, and simpler products to Ireland—while planning to retain extensive Chinese operations. Its leadership is concerned that moving too much capacity too quickly could prompt Chinese retaliation or nationalist consumer backlash.
  • Apple’s iPhone Supply Chain Splinters Under US-China Tensions — Data on more than 370 Apple suppliers and their factory locations show the company's manufacturing network spreading across the developing world, with Vietnam and India the biggest gainers. US and Japanese producers have reduced their China footprint as Chinese firms join the supplier list, though China still houses most Apple device factories.
  • China Blocks Use of Intel and AMD Chips in Government Computers — China has issued government procurement guidelines that phase out US microprocessors from Intel and AMD in state PCs and servers and sideline Microsoft's Windows and foreign database software in favor of domestic alternatives. China accounted for 27% of Intel's $54bn in sales and 15% of AMD's $23bn.