Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, August 30, 2023

AI Summary. Data point to a reallocation rather than deglobalization of US supply chains: direct US sourcing from China has declined while import shares from low-wage Vietnam and nearby Mexico have risen. China's import share in the EU, Mexico, and Vietnam has increased, and Chinese firms are expanding investment and production there.

Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Date Posted:

A “Great Reallocation” of US supply chain activity is underway with Vietnam and Mexico being the largest beneficiaries. @lalfaro

Are US supply chains reallocating rather than moving away from China?

Core argument: US direct sourcing from China has declined while import share has risen from low-wage locations, chiefly Vietnam, and regional trade areas, particularly Mexico, which hints at a "great reallocation" of supply chains rather than deglobalization.

Rather than signaling a trend towards deglobalization, the available data hints at a looming “great reallocation” of US supply chain activity. This shift is marked by a decline in direct US sourcing from China, with a corresponding rise in import share from low-wage locations, chiefly Vietnam, and regional trade areas, particularly Mexico. Recent policy efforts may ultimately not succeed in their objective to reduce US dependence on supply chains tied to China. Despite a decrease in US direct reliance on China, there has been an increase in China’s import share in “friendly” nations, including the EU, Mexico, and Vietnam. Chinese firms are stepping up FDI and production facilities in Vietnam and Mexico in critical sectors, albeit from a low base. This suggests that plants in which China is the ultimate owner may continue to play a significant role in US value chains.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US direct sourcing from China has declined while import share has risen from low-wage locations, chiefly Vietnam, and regional trade areas, particularly Mexico, which hints at a "great reallocation" of supply chains rather than deglobalization.
  2. China's import share has increased in "friendly" nations including the EU, Mexico, and Vietnam even as US direct reliance on China has fallen, and policy efforts to cut dependence on China-linked supply chains may ultimately not succeed.
  3. Chinese firms are stepping up foreign direct investment and production facilities in Vietnam and Mexico in critical sectors, albeit from a low base, suggesting plants ultimately owned by China may continue to play a significant role in US value chains.

Related Articles:

  • How America Is Failing To Break Up With China — Research finds that countries with the strongest existing trade ties to China in a given industry have gained the most as direct Chinese exports to the US are redirected, suggesting Chinese supply chains remain central to American imports even in advanced-manufacturing goods officials most want to shield from China.
  • Setser On Rumors Of Decoupling — Chinese data show US imports from China as a share of GDP slightly higher than before the trade war, and G-7 imports from China have boomed, indicating little shift of global supply chains out of China. Decoupling is a forecast rather than a current reality.
  • Global Firms Are Eyeing Asian Alternatives to Chinese Manufacturing — Chinese manufacturing wages doubled between 2013 and 2022 to an average of $8.27 an hour, while hourly manufacturing wages in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam remain below $3. This alternative Asian supply chain has a combined working-age population of 1.4bn versus China's 980m, and 154m tertiary-educated people aged 25–54 versus China's 145m.

AI Summary. The International Monetary Fund projects Germany will be the only major economy to contract this year, while even sanctioned Russia grows. German exports long depended on a rapidly industrializing China buying its capital goods, but Chinese growth and import demand have faltered, and German industry still faces higher energy costs than U.S. and Asian competitors.

Bojan Pancevski, Paul Hannon and William Boston Wall Street Journal
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The German economic model is under increasing stress due to higher energy costs, China’s import substitution strategy, and competition from American and Chinese electric car makers.

Why is Germany's economy contracting while other major economies grow?

Core argument: The International Monetary Fund projects Germany will be the world's only major economy to contract in 2023, with even sanctioned Russia registering growth.

Germany will be the world’s only major economy to contract in 2023, with even sanctioned Russia experiencing growth, according to the International Monetary Fund. China was for years a major driver of Germany’s export boom. A rapidly industrializing China bought up all the capital goods that Germany could make. But China’s investment-heavy growth model has been approaching its limits for years. Growth and demand for imports have faltered. Energy prices in Europe have declined from last year’s peak as EU countries scrambled to replace Russian gas, but German industry still faces higher costs than competitors in the U.S. and Asia.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The International Monetary Fund projects Germany will be the world's only major economy to contract in 2023, with even sanctioned Russia registering growth.
  2. China, which for years drove Germany's export boom by buying the capital goods German industry could make, has an investment-heavy growth model approaching its limits, with growth and import demand faltering.
  3. European energy prices have fallen from last year's peak as EU countries scrambled to replace Russian gas, but German industry still faces higher costs than competitors in the U.S. and Asia.

Related Articles:

  • Germany’s Industrial Slowdown — German output remains barely above pre-pandemic levels, with cumulative GDP growth of less than 0.5% over roughly five years. German industrial investment has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and real fixed investment in equipment remains below its 2018 level, even as the US devotes record resources to factory construction and equipment purchases.
  • Europe’s Imbalances in Pandemic and War — Europe's trade surplus that emerged after the euro crisis has returned, with its distribution shifted as Germany's investment slump and flat consumption were offset by building booms in Spain, Greece, and central and eastern Europe. Since 1999, net fixed investment in Spain has exceeded Germany's despite Spain having half Germany's population.
  • Can Volkswagen Win Back China? — Volkswagen relies on China for at least half its annual profits, but its flagship VW brand has been displaced as China's best-selling car by BYD and holds just 2% of the electric vehicle market, ninth place, versus nearly 40% for BYD and over 10% for Tesla.

AI Summary. The combined market value of the S&P 500's 500 companies rose $5tn, or 15.3%, while the 493 stocks outside the "Magnificent Seven" — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla — returned only 4.5%. Those seven stocks accounted for about 71% of the index's return.

Jesper Rangvid Rangvid's Blog
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Jesper Rangvid notes that, so far this year, seven stocks generated 70% of the S&P 500 return; they now constitute 27.5% of the S&P 500.

How much of the S&P 500's return came from seven stocks?

Core argument: The "Magnificent Seven" — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla — generated 10.8 percentage points of the S&P 500's 15.3% gain in 2023, or 71% of the index's return.

In this analysis, I look at the performance of stocks referred to by some as the “Magnificent Seven” (Mag7). These are: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The combined market value of all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 has increased by $5 trillion or 15.3% in 2023, as mentioned. Leaving Mag7 out of the equation, the value of the remaining 493 shares has risen from $26 trillion to $27 trillion today, a return of only 4.5%. Consequently, Mag7 stocks have provided a 10.8% increase in the S&P 500. This means that only 7 out of 500 stocks generated 10.8%/15.3% = 71% of the return of the S&P 500 in 2023. The remaining 493 stocks delivered the remaining 29%. One can only speculate whether these shares are bubbles. The spectacular performance of Nvidia, for example, is reminiscent of the performance of hyped stocks during the dot.com bubble at the turn of the millennium.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The "Magnificent Seven" — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla — generated 10.8 percentage points of the S&P 500's 15.3% gain in 2023, or 71% of the index's return.
  2. The other 493 S&P 500 stocks rose from $26 trillion to $27 trillion in market value in 2023, a return of 4.5%, accounting for 29% of the index's return.
  3. The combined market value of the S&P 500 increased by $5 trillion, or 15.3%, in 2023, with Nvidia's performance likened to that of hyped stocks during the dot-com bubble.

Related Articles:

  • Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation — The median age at which US companies went public rose from 7.9 years in 1976–2000 to 9.5 years in 2001–2022, implying that more wealth creation now occurs in private markets. Research on more than 28,000 US-listed companies since 1926 finds that just under 60% destroyed $9.1tn of wealth while about 2% created $50tn.
  • Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride: The Impact Of Underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs — Between 40% and 60% of US initial public offerings generate negative returns even in favorable periods, so average IPO returns far exceed median returns and depend on a small set of large winners. Excluding just the top 3% of IPOs turns average net returns negative and cuts average absolute returns by more than half.
  • Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations — Analyst long-term earnings growth forecasts for S&P 500 firms, when high by historical standards, are systematically disappointed and coincide with higher expected stock returns in surveys, which the authors interpret as excess optimism. A one standard deviation rise in these forecasts is associated with an investment boom that reverses two years later.

AI Summary. Remote work has reduced office utilization but not yet office occupancy, because most firms are locked into long-duration leases. Baseline estimates suggest remote work will exert 0.8 percentage points of upward pressure on the office vacancy rate near-term, 2.3 more over the following five years, and 1.8 thereafter.

Jan Hatzius and Others Goldman Sachs
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.@GoldmanSachs finds that 20-25% of US workers are working from home at least part of the week, well above the pre-pandemic average of 2.6%. This exerts upward pressure on office vacancy rates, partially offset by a decline in new office construction.

How much will remote work raise office vacancy rates over time?

Core argument: Baseline estimates suggest remote work will exert 0.8pp of upward pressure on the office vacancy rate by 2024, an additional 2.3pp over 2025–2029, and another 1.8pp in 2030 and beyond, likely partially offset by a decline in new construction.

Work from home has reduced office utilization rates but has not yet led to substantial declines in office occupancy rates because most firms are locked in long-duration leases. Going forward, 17% of all office leases are scheduled to expire by the end of 2024, 47% between 2024-2029, and the rest after 2030. Our baseline estimates suggest that remote work will likely exert 0.8pp of upward pressure on the office vacancy rate by 2024, an additional 2.3pp over 2025-2029, and another 1.8pp in 2030 and beyond, though this is likely to be partially offset by a decline in new construction. The share of employees working remotely remains remarkably elevated in industries like information that require less face-to-face interaction, while it is much lower in contact-heavy sectors like retail and hospitality.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Baseline estimates suggest remote work will exert 0.8pp of upward pressure on the office vacancy rate by 2024, an additional 2.3pp over 2025–2029, and another 1.8pp in 2030 and beyond, likely partially offset by a decline in new construction.
  2. Work from home has reduced office utilization rates without yet producing substantial declines in office occupancy rates, because most firms are locked into long-duration leases.
  3. Some 17% of all office leases are scheduled to expire by the end of 2024 and 47% between 2024 and 2029, with the remainder expiring after 2030.

Related Articles:

  • Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse — The authors estimate New York City office values fell 45% in 2020 and 39% in the longer run, a $453bn value destruction, with lower-quality buildings hit hardest as tenants shifted to higher-quality space. They argue this has implications for local public finances and financial sector stability.

AI Summary. An analysis of 84,544 groundwater monitoring wells across the United States found that nearly half declined significantly over the past 40 years as more water was pumped out than nature replenished. Four of every 10 sites hit all-time lows in the past decade.

Mira Rojanasakul, Christopher Flavelle, Blacki Migliozzi and Eli Murray New York Times
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Depletion of groundwater reserves is causing significant reductions in crop yields and puts at risk one-third of America’s total volume of drinking water that comes from groundwater.

Are America's groundwater levels declining faster than nature can replenish them?

Core argument: The New York Times analyzed 84,544 groundwater monitoring wells for trends since 1920 and found nearly half of sites declined significantly over the past 40 years as pumping outpaced natural replenishment.

A wealth of underground water helped create America, its vast cities and bountiful farmland. Now, Americans are squandering that inheritance. The Times analyzed water levels reported at tens of thousands of sites, revealing a crisis that threatens American prosperity - 84,544 monitoring wells examined for trends since 1920. Nearly half the sites have declined significantly over the past 40 years as more water has been pumped out than nature can replenish. In the past decade, four of every 10 sites hit all-time lows. And last year was the worst yet.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The New York Times analyzed 84,544 groundwater monitoring wells for trends since 1920 and found nearly half of sites declined significantly over the past 40 years as pumping outpaced natural replenishment.
  2. Four of every 10 monitored groundwater sites in the United States hit all-time lows over the past decade, with last year the worst yet.
  3. The New York Times characterizes the depletion of groundwater that supported American cities and farmland as a crisis threatening American prosperity.

Related Articles:

  • Arizona Is Running Out of Cheap Water. Investors Saw It Coming — Phoenix-area suburbs are paying sharply higher prices for water rights from a basin west of the city, with one suburb approving $80m for 6,000 acre-feet — more than double the per-acre-foot price another suburb paid earlier. Arizona's groundwater replenishment assessments rose from $154 to $768 per acre-foot.
  • A Breakthrough Deal to Keep the Colorado River from Going Dry, for Now — Arizona, California, and Nevada agreed to cut their withdrawals from the drought-strained Colorado River by about 13% of total lower-basin water use, with the federal government paying roughly $1.2bn to irrigation districts, cities, and Native American tribes that temporarily use less. The reductions are likely to require significant residential and agricultural water restrictions.
  • Texas Farmers Are Worried One of the State’s Most Precious Water Resources is Running Dry. You Should Be Too — A report from a Texas water conservation district shows water levels in the Ogallala Aquifer, spanning eight U.S. High Plains states, have dropped consistently over the past five years. The aquifer supplies water for about 30% of U.S. irrigation, farms producing a quarter of national agricultural output, and drinking water for 82% of residents within its boundaries.

AI Summary. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have warmed more than 3 degrees above the norm for the date, with temperatures near 88°F common down to depths of 165 feet. Though the Gulf as a whole has cooled slightly from record levels, it remains near all-time highs.

Ian Livingston Washington Post
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The Gulf of Mexico is 3 degrees warmer than the mean with temperatures of nearly 88° becoming common at depths of 165 feet. A University of Miami hurricane scientist described the ocean heat as “other-worldly.”

Are Gulf of Mexico waters near their highest recorded temperatures?

Core argument: Gulf Coast temperatures have surged to the highest levels ever observed, with sea surface temperatures more than 3 degrees above the norm for the date.

The sea surface temperatures of the gulf have cooked, warming more than 3 degrees above the norm for the date. The water has also heated up far beneath the surface. In fact, temperatures of nearly 88° are common to depths of 165 feet below the surface, according to data from Kim Wood, a professor of meteorology at Mississippi State University. University of Miami hurricane scientist Andy Hazelton called the ocean heat “other-worldly.” While the Gulf of Mexico as a whole has cooled slightly compared with earlier this month, when it shattered records, it remains near all-time highs.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Gulf Coast temperatures have surged to the highest levels ever observed, with sea surface temperatures more than 3 degrees above the norm for the date.
  2. Temperatures of nearly 88 degrees are common down to depths of 165 feet below the surface, according to data from Kim Wood, a meteorology professor at Mississippi State University.
  3. The Gulf of Mexico as a whole has cooled slightly from earlier in the month, when it shattered records, but remains near all-time highs, with University of Miami hurricane scientist Andy Hazelton calling the ocean heat "other-worldly.".

Related Articles:

  • Heating Waters Force Change in Industries That Depend on the Ocean — Nearly half the world's oceans are experiencing a marine heatwave, defined as warmer than 90% of previous temperature observations for the same date. Beyond climate change and the El Niño/La Niña cycle, researchers are investigating whether rules cutting ships' sulfur particle pollution and water vapor from an underwater volcanic eruption are contributing, with the magnitude disputed.
  • What This Year’s ‘Astonishing’ Ocean Heat Means for the Planet — The planet's average sea surface temperature reached a record high and the ocean has stayed exceptionally warm, with North Atlantic readings running more than 2°F above typical levels and one buoy recording 101.1°F, possibly a world record. Scientists expect warm ocean conditions to continue as El Niño intensifies.
  • The Rapid Loss Of Antarctic Sea Ice Brings Grim Scenarios Into View — Unusual wind and wave patterns are a leading short-term explanation for the loss of Antarctic sea ice, which holds the continent's coastal ice shelves in place. If those shelves collapsed, continental ice could flow rapidly into the oceans; the West Antarctic ice sheet alone holds enough water to raise global sea level by 11 feet.

AI Summary. Analog in-memory computing chips, which perform matrix–vector multiplications in parallel on memory tiles, offer better energy efficiency than conventional graphics or central processing units for large artificial intelligence models. The authors demonstrate software-equivalent accuracy on a small keyword-spotting network and near-software-equivalent accuracy on a much larger speech-transcription network.

Ambrogio, S., Narayanan, P., Okazaki, A. et al. Nature
Date Posted:

IBM researchers demonstrate a new technology that is 14 times as energy efficient as conventional chips at speech recognition, with potential for other AI applications.

Can analog in-memory chips match software accuracy on speech models?

Core argument: An analog in-memory computing chip achieves fully end-to-end software-equivalent accuracy on a small keyword-spotting network and near-software-equivalent accuracy on the much larger MLPerf recurrent neural-network transducer.

Models of artificial intelligence (AI) that have billions of parameters can achieve high accuracy across a range of tasks but they exacerbate the poor energy efficiency of conventional general-purpose processors, such as graphics processing units or central processing units. Analog in-memory computing (analog-AI) can provide better energy efficiency by performing matrix–vector multiplications in parallel on ‘memory tiles’. However, analog-AI has yet to demonstrate software-equivalent (SWeq) accuracy on models that require many such tiles and efficient communication of neural-network activations between the tiles. We demonstrate fully end-to-end SWeq accuracy for a small keyword-spotting network and near-SWeq accuracy on the much larger MLPerf8 recurrent neural-network transducer (RNNT.)

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. An analog in-memory computing chip achieves fully end-to-end software-equivalent accuracy on a small keyword-spotting network and near-software-equivalent accuracy on the much larger MLPerf recurrent neural-network transducer.
  2. Analog in-memory computing can offer better energy efficiency than conventional general-purpose processors such as graphics or central processing units by performing matrix–vector multiplications in parallel on memory tiles.
  3. Analog-AI had not yet demonstrated software-equivalent accuracy on models that require many memory tiles and efficient communication of neural-network activations between them.

Related Articles:

  • Mega Firms and Recent Trends in the U.S. Innovation: Empirical Evidence from the U.S. Patent Data — Analysis of US patent data finds that the largest firms are more likely to file novel patents even after controlling for size, industry, and patent counts, and that firms produce more novel patents as they become mega firms. Venture-backed startups also account for a disproportionate share of novel patents.
  • The Race of the AI Labs Heats Up — Almost all recent artificial intelligence breakthroughs have come from large companies, largely because they hold the computing power. Amazon and Meta each produce two-thirds and four-fifths as much AI research as Stanford University respectively, while Alphabet and Microsoft produce considerably more, excluding their affiliated labs DeepMind and OpenAI.
  • The Dream of Bringing Back Bell Labs — Google's artificial intelligence research units have been an important driver of machine learning research, and large private firms including IBM are active in quantum computing research. Some large startups such as SpaceX conduct in-house research that pushes the boundaries of general-purpose technology rather than pursuing quick profits.

Thursday, August 31, 2023

AI Summary. The US capital-output ratio remains close to its postwar average and the real return to capital has stayed roughly constant near 6%, at 5.84% in the 2000s and 6.42% in the 2010s. Market-based real returns averaged 5.52% from 1950-1989 versus 6.95% from 1990-2019, a rise rather than the decline a capital glut implies.

Alan Auerbach and Larry Kotlikoff Economics Matters
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Alan Auerbach @Kotlikoff argue that the global savings glut was a “myth.” The market return on capital, which would show a decline if there were a capital glut, increased in the 2000s and 2010s.

Is there evidence of a US capital glut?

Core argument: The marginal product of US capital rose from 5.84% in the 2000s to 6.42% in the 2010s, and the US capital-output ratio remains close to its postwar average.

There has been no major increase in the US capital-output ratio, nor has there been a major decline in the US marginal product of capital – the economy’s real return to capital. The US capital-output ratio remains close to its postwar average and capital’s real return has remained roughly constant -- around 6%. During the 2000s the marginal product of U.S. capital (MPK) was a healthy 5.84%. In the 2010s it was even higher at 6.42%. The market return to capital would show a decline if there were a capital glut and investors expected lower rates of return, It shows no such decline. The market return to capital’s real return averaged 5.52% between 1950 and 1989. Btw 1990 and 2019 it averaged 6.95. Hence, the broadest market-based real return data shows a rise, not a fall in returns in the recent decades during which capital has allegedly been in vast oversupply. The real return to US wealth between 2010 and 2019 averaged 8.25% – the highest average return of any postwar decade.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The marginal product of US capital rose from 5.84% in the 2000s to 6.42% in the 2010s, and the US capital-output ratio remains close to its postwar average.
  2. The market-based real return to US capital averaged 5.52% between 1950 and 1989 and 6.95% between 1990 and 2019, a rise rather than the decline a capital glut would produce.
  3. The real return to US wealth averaged 8.25% between 2010 and 2019, the highest average return of any postwar decade.

Related Articles:

  • In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments! — Plotting US Treasury bond rates against a crude fundamental risk-free rate—actual inflation plus real GDP growth—undercuts the argument that central banks set interest rates. Central banks can nudge rates at the margin but cannot override the fundamentals of inflation and real growth.
  • Summers and Blanchard Debate the Future of Interest Rates — With expected inflation near 2.5%, a real interest rate of 1.5% to 2%, and some risk and term premium, short-term interest rates would average around 4%, one argument in a debate on the future of interest rates holds. If traditional spreads reassert themselves, longer-term rates would run about 1 percentage point higher, near 5%.

AI Summary. The labor force participation rate for prime-age women, those aged 25 to 54, has exceeded its all-time high, reaching 77.8%. The authors find prime-age women contributed most to the rebound in overall labor force participation, with women whose youngest child is under age five driving the upward trajectory.

Lauren Bauer and Sarah Yu Wang Brookings Institution
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The labor force participation rate for prime-age women (ages 25-54) is at an all-time high 77.8%, driven by mothers whose youngest child is under 5 years old. @laurenlbauer

Are prime-age women driving the rebound in labor force participation?

Core argument: Prime-age women, those aged 25–54, reached a labor force participation rate of 77.8% in the most recent jobs report, having exceeded their all-time high since February 2023.

Since February 2023, the labor force participation rate for prime-age women––those between the ages of 25 and 54––has exceeded its all-time high. As of the most recent jobs report, prime-age women had a labor force participation rate of 77.8%. We find that those who have contributed most to the rebound in overall labor force participation in April and May of 2023, three years after the nadir of pandemic-era participation, are in fact prime-age women. Moreover, among prime-age women and indeed among all groups, women whose youngest child is under the age of five are powering the pack’s upward trajectory.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Prime-age women, those aged 25–54, reached a labor force participation rate of 77.8% in the most recent jobs report, having exceeded their all-time high since February 2023.
  2. Prime-age women contributed most to the rebound in overall labor force participation in April and May of 2023, three years after the pandemic-era participation low.
  3. Among prime-age women and among all groups, women whose youngest child is under the age of five are driving the upward trajectory in participation.

Related Articles:

AI Summary. Automakers have announced more than $110bn in electric-vehicle investments in the US, with about half directed to Southern states and most of the remainder to Great Lakes states including Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Great Lakes auto employment, though still nearly double the South's, has fallen 34% over two decades to 382,000 workers.

Nora Eckert Wall Street Journal
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Since 2018, auto manufacturers have announced at least $110 billion of EV-related domestic investment, about half in Southern states, driven by lower labor and energy costs. Unionizing southern auto workers is a priority for the UAW.

Is electric-vehicle investment shifting auto manufacturing to the South?

Core argument: Auto companies have announced more than $110 billion in EV-related U.S. investments since 2018, with about half destined for Southern states and most of the remainder for Great Lakes states including Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, according to the Center for Automotive Research.

Auto companies have announced more than $110 billion in EV-related investments in the U.S. since 2018, with about half that sum destined for Southern states, according to the Center for Automotive Research. The rest is mostly planned for states in the Great Lakes region, including Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Auto employment in the Great Lakes region, while still nearly double that of southern states, has slid 34% in the last two decades to 382,000 workers as of 2021, according to the Economic Policy Institute. Full-time unionized jobs in the industry currently range between $18 to $32 an hour. There is no guarantee the [southern] Ford plants will be unionized, and the company has said this decision is up to its workers. The United Auto Workers union is currently in talks with the Detroit automakers and is prioritizing organizing these joint-venture battery plants.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Auto companies have announced more than $110 billion in EV-related U.S. investments since 2018, with about half destined for Southern states and most of the remainder for Great Lakes states including Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, according to the Center for Automotive Research.
  2. Auto employment in the Great Lakes region fell 34% over the last two decades to 382,000 workers as of 2021, though it remains nearly double that of Southern states, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
  3. Full-time unionized auto jobs pay between $18 and $32 an hour, and the United Auto Workers, in talks with the Detroit automakers, is prioritizing organizing joint-venture battery plants, while Ford says unionization at its Southern plants is up to its workers.

Related Articles:

  • Auto Union Boss Wants 46% Raise, 32-Hour Work Week in ‘War’ Against Detroit Carmakers — The United Auto Workers union has demanded a 46% raise, a return to traditional pensions, and a 32-hour work week from the three Detroit automakers. The companies say meeting those demands would raise labor costs by $80bn and lift total pay and benefit expenses to more than $150 an hour from about $64.
  • Republican Districts Dominate US Clean Technology Investment Boom — A Financial Times analysis found that more than 80% of pledged investment in large-scale clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing is destined for Republican congressional districts. The analysis attributes this partly to those districts' available land and cheap labor, and to state-level tax breaks and subsidies in states such as Georgia and Ohio.
  • Small Towns Chase America’s $3 Trillion Climate Gold Rush — About $1tn in US federal tax incentives and loans for green energy is drawing a flood of corporate investment into rural counties and reshaping local economies. Estimates of the total private and public spending driven over the next decade range from several hundred billion dollars to roughly $3tn.

AI Summary. South Korea's fertility rate fell to 0.78 from 0.81, the lowest among wealthy OECD countries where the average is 1.58, and no other OECD member is below 1. Its population has been declining as deaths exceed births, and military conscripts are expected to shrink by nearly half over two decades.

Dasl Yoon and Timothy Martin Wall Street Journal
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Despite spending at least $210 billion since 2006 to encourage marriage and children, South Korea’s fertility rate fell from 0.81 in 2021 to 0.78 last year, falling further to 0.70 in the April-to-June quarter.

Despite spending at least $210 billion since 2006 to encourage marriage and children, South Korea’s fertility rate...

Do cash payments to parents raise a falling birthrate?

Core argument: South Korea's fertility rate fell to 0.78 from 0.81 in 2021, and slid further to 0.70 in the April-to-June quarter, despite cash payouts to parents.

South Korea’s fertility rate slumped to 0.78 last year, from 0.81 in 2021. The slide has worsened in recent months, falling to 0.70 in the April-to-June quarter. Since 2013, the country of 52 million has reported the lowest fertility rate among wealthy members of the OECD—where the average fertility rate stands at 1.58. No other OECD member has a fertility rate below 1. South Korea’s population began declining in 2020, with the number of deaths overtaking total births. Its military conscripts are expected to shrink by nearly half over the next two decades. The military has started to deploy more unmanned combat aircraft and increase the number of women serving. The country’s total student enrollment has shrunk for 18 years straight.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. South Korea's fertility rate fell to 0.78 from 0.81 in 2021, and slid further to 0.70 in the April-to-June quarter, despite cash payouts to parents.
  2. South Korea, a country of 52 million, has reported the lowest fertility rate among wealthy OECD members since 2013, against an OECD average of 1.58, and no other OECD member has a rate below 1.
  3. South Korea's military conscripts are expected to shrink by nearly half over the next two decades, and its military has started deploying more unmanned combat aircraft and increasing the number of women serving.

Related Articles:

  • South Korea Again Smashes Own Record for World’s Lowest Fertility Rate in 2022 — South Korea's fertility rate fell to 0.78 babies per woman, the lowest among more than 260 nations tracked by the World Bank, with newborns declining to 249,000 against about 373,000 deaths. Statistics Korea projects the working-age population, which peaked at 37.3m, will fall by almost half by 2070.
  • The Great Global Baby Bust is Under Way — The number of countries with fertility rates below the 2.1 replacement level rose from 98 in 2010 to 124 in 2021, more than half of those with available data, and all 15 of the world's largest economies are below replacement. Fertility is now falling among less-educated women too.
  • How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World — In East Asia and Europe, growing numbers of retirees will depend on a shrinking working-age population, and some Asian countries are aging before becoming rich — China hit its peak working-age population at 20% of US income levels at the same point, Vietnam at 14%.

AI Summary. Research documents a large increase in small campaign contributions of $200 or less, with the number of individual donors rising from 5.2mm in 2006 to 195mm in 2020. Candidates with strongly ideological profiles rank among the top recipients, drawing roughly 70% of their funds from small donors.

Thomas Edsall New York Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Ideologically driven donors of $200 or less are driving political polarization in the US, as small donors hold far more extreme views than those of the mean voter. @Edsall

Ideologically driven donors of $200 or less are driving political polarization in the US, as small donors hold far more...

Are small campaign donors fueling the rise of ideological candidates?

Core argument: The 2022 paper "Small Campaign Donors" documents individual campaign donors rising from 5.2 million in 2006 to 195 million in 2020, alongside an increase in contributions of $200 or less.

A 2022 paper, “Small Campaign Donors,” documents the striking increase in low-dollar ($200 or less) campaign contributions in recent years. The total number of individual donors grew from 5.2mm in 2006 to 195mm in 2020. The appeal of extreme candidates can be seen in the OpenSecrets listing of the top members of the House and Senate ranked by the percentage of contributions they have received from small donors in the 2021-22 election cycle: Bernie Sanders raised $38.3mm, of which 70%, came from small donors; Marjorie Taylor Greene raised $12.5mm, of which 68% came from small donors; and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez raised $12.3mm, of which 68%, came from small donors. House Republicans who backed Trump and voted to reject the Electoral College count on Jan. 6 received an average of $140,000 in small contributions, while House Republicans who opposed Trump and voted to accept Biden’s victory received far less in small donations, an average of $40,000.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The 2022 paper "Small Campaign Donors" documents individual campaign donors rising from 5.2 million in 2006 to 195 million in 2020, alongside an increase in contributions of $200 or less.
  2. OpenSecrets data for the 2021-22 cycle show Bernie Sanders raised $38.3 million with 70% from small donors, Marjorie Taylor Greene $12.5 million with 68%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez $12.3 million with 68%.
  3. House Republicans who voted to reject the Electoral College count on Jan. 6 received an average of $140,000 in small contributions, compared with an average of $40,000 for those who voted to accept Biden's victory.

Related Articles:

  • Is the Surge to the Left Among Young Voters a Trump Blip or the Real Deal? — Data from the Cooperative Election Study show millennials and Gen Z have voted increasingly for Democratic House candidates over time, contrary to the adage that voters grow more conservative as they age. One political scientist notes such generational shifts translate slowly into vote share and can be offset by Republican gains elsewhere.
  • What Happened In 2022 — Young voters aged 18–29 backed Democrats by 65%, and in heavily contested states turnout among those eligible in two consecutive elections rose 6%. Women voters, for whom abortion rights were often the top issue, favored Democrats in close races, while "MAGA" Republicans underperformed in contested Senate, gubernatorial, and congressional contests.
  • Republican Gains in 2022 Midterms Driven Mostly by Turnout Advantage — A Pew Research Center analysis of verified voters finds that partisan differences in turnout, rather than voters switching parties, account for most Republican gains in House voting. 71% of Trump's 2020 voters turned out in the midterms versus 67% of Biden's, and just 6% crossed party lines.