Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Tuesday, August 22, 2023

AI Summary. Only 52 of the Fortune 500 largest US companies were founded after 1990 and just seven after 2007, while 280 predate America's entry into World War II; the group's average age has risen from 75 to 90 years since 1990.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

The Fortune 500 is less dynamic than many think: only 52 of the firms that make up the Fortune 500 were born after 1990. However, this likely reflects the dynamism of the component firms.

Are America's largest companies getting older and harder to displace?

Core argument: Only 52 of the Fortune 500 were founded after 1990, including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta but not Apple or Microsoft, while 280 predate America's entry into the second world war.

We found that only 52 of the [Fortune] 500 were born after 1990, our yardstick for the internet era. That includes Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, but misses Apple and Microsoft. Merely seven of the 500 were created after Apple unveiled the first iPhone in 2007, while 280 predate America’s entry into the second world war. In 1990 just 66 firms in the Fortune 500 were 30 years old or younger and since then the average age has crept up from 75 to 90. One explanation is that the digital revolution has not been all that revolutionary in some parts of the economy. Another is that inertia has slowed the pace of competitive upheaval in many industries, buying time for incumbents to adapt to digital technologies. A third explanation is that [incumbents’] scale creates a momentum of its own around innovation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Only 52 of the Fortune 500 were founded after 1990, including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta but not Apple or Microsoft, while 280 predate America's entry into the second world war.
  2. Just seven of the Fortune 500 were created after Apple unveiled the first iPhone in 2007, and the list's average age has risen from 75 to 90 since 1990, when 66 firms were 30 or younger.
  3. Explanations offered for the aging of the Fortune 500 include a digital revolution that has been less revolutionary in parts of the economy, inertia giving incumbents time to adapt, and scale generating its own innovation momentum.

Related Articles:

  • The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies — United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality Diana Furchtgott-Roth
  • The Race of the AI Labs Heats Up — Almost all recent artificial intelligence breakthroughs have come from large companies, largely because they hold the computing power. Amazon and Meta each produce two-thirds and four-fifths as much AI research as Stanford University respectively, while Alphabet and Microsoft produce considerably more, excluding their affiliated labs DeepMind and OpenAI.
  • The National Economic Council Gets It Wrong on the Roles of Big and Small Firms in U.S. Innovation — U.S. small firms account for 49% of employment but 16% of business R&D spending and 18.8% of patents issued, while firms with more than 25,000 workers account for 36% of R&D and the largest firms 37.4% of patents. A survey of nearly 1,000 scientists and engineers found most internationally filed patents came from firms with more than 500 employees.
  • The Size of Firms and the Nature of Innovation — Corporate research and development spending scales proportionately with sales, but evidence indicates firms produce fewer inventions per research dollar as they grow. Larger firms' innovation is more likely to improve existing products than create new ones, and patent evidence shows bigger firms engage in more incremental innovation and cite their own patents more often.
  • Mega Firms and Recent Trends in the U.S. Innovation: Empirical Evidence from the U.S. Patent Data — Analysis of US patent data finds that the largest firms are more likely to file novel patents even after controlling for size, industry, and patent counts, and that firms produce more novel patents as they become mega firms. Venture-backed startups also account for a disproportionate share of novel patents.

AI Summary. Analyst long-term earnings growth forecasts for S&P 500 firms, when high by historical standards, are systematically disappointed and coincide with higher expected stock returns in surveys, which the authors interpret as excess optimism. A one standard deviation rise in these forecasts is associated with an investment boom that reverses two years later.

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Matthew O'Brien and Andrei Shleifer National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:

Expected earnings for S&P 500 firms “fully explain observed stock market fluctuations from 1980-2022,” and help explain macroeconomic boom-bust cycles @NBERpubs

Do high long-term earnings forecasts predict disappointment and investment reversals?

Core argument: The present value of short- and long-term expected earnings for S&P 500 firms, computed with a constant required return, fully explains observed stock market fluctuations over 1980–2022.

The present value of short and long term expected earnings for S&P 500 firms, computed using a constant required return, fully explains observed stock market fluctuations btw 1980-2022. When long term earning growth (LTG) is high relative to historical standards, analyst forecasts of short and long term profits are systematically disappointed in the future, inconsistent with rationality. High LTG also correlates with higher survey expectations of stock returns, in contrast with standard theories, in which investors expect low returns in good times. High LTG thus proxies for excess optimism: it points to investors being too bullish about future profits and stock return. This evidence offers additional support to the hypothesis that boom-bust dynamics in non-rational expectations about the long-term act as an important driver of the volatility of key asset prices. A one standard deviation increase in LTG fuels an investment boom. Crucially, the investment boom sharply reverts 2 years later, and that reversal is fully explained by the predictable disappointment of the initially high LTG.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The present value of short- and long-term expected earnings for S&P 500 firms, computed with a constant required return, fully explains observed stock market fluctuations over 1980–2022.
  2. When analysts' long-term earnings growth expectations (LTG) are high relative to historical standards, forecasts of short- and long-term profits are systematically disappointed later, inconsistent with rationality, and survey expectations of stock returns are also higher, contrary to standard theories.
  3. A one standard deviation increase in LTG fuels an investment boom that sharply reverts two years later, with the reversal fully explained by the predictable disappointment of the initially high LTG.

Related Articles:

  • Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation — The median age at which US companies went public rose from 7.9 years in 1976–2000 to 9.5 years in 2001–2022, implying that more wealth creation now occurs in private markets. Research on more than 28,000 US-listed companies since 1926 finds that just under 60% destroyed $9.1tn of wealth while about 2% created $50tn.
  • Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride: The Impact Of Underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs — Between 40% and 60% of US initial public offerings generate negative returns even in favorable periods, so average IPO returns far exceed median returns and depend on a small set of large winners. Excluding just the top 3% of IPOs turns average net returns negative and cuts average absolute returns by more than half.
  • The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies — United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality Diana Furchtgott-Roth

AI Summary. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries pushed above 2% for the first time since 2009, up from year-to-date lows near 1%, while the 10-year nominal Treasury yield climbed nearly 10 basis points to as much as 4.35%, a level last seen in late 2007.

Michael Mackenzie and Liz Capo McCormick Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.35%, a level last seen in 2007. 10-year TIPS yielded over 2% for the first time since 2009.

Are long-term Treasury yields climbing to their highest levels since 2007?

Core argument: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed nearly 10 basis points Monday to as much as 4.35%, a level last seen in late 2007, before paring part of the gain.

The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries on Monday pushed over 2% for the first time since 2009, extending its ascent from year-to-date lows near 1%. Not long after, the yield on 10-year Treasuries without that protection surpassed October’s peak, climbing nearly 10 basis points to as much as 4.35%, a level last seen in late 2007, before slightly paring the gain.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed nearly 10 basis points Monday to as much as 4.35%, a level last seen in late 2007, before paring part of the gain.
  2. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries pushed above 2% for the first time since 2009, extending an ascent from year-to-date lows near 1%.
  3. The 10-year Treasury yield surpassed October's peak.

Related Articles:

  • What Have We Learned About the Neutral Rate? — Analysts estimate that if inflation is brought down without a recession, the Federal Reserve's policy rate will stabilize nearer 3–3.25% than the 2.5% longer-run median projection of Federal Reserve officials. Projected shifts in government debt and demographics imply a roughly 0.5 percentage point net increase in the neutral rate over the next decade.
  • In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments! — Plotting US Treasury bond rates against a crude fundamental risk-free rate—actual inflation plus real GDP growth—undercuts the argument that central banks set interest rates. Central banks can nudge rates at the margin but cannot override the fundamentals of inflation and real growth.
  • Summers and Blanchard Debate the Future of Interest Rates — With expected inflation near 2.5%, a real interest rate of 1.5% to 2%, and some risk and term premium, short-term interest rates would average around 4%, one argument in a debate on the future of interest rates holds. If traditional spreads reassert themselves, longer-term rates would run about 1 percentage point higher, near 5%.

AI Summary. American Airlines pilots approved a four-year contract providing 46% in cumulative pay raises and retirement contributions plus bonuses and improved scheduling, sick leave, and insurance benefits. The Allied Pilots Association says it will add about $9.6bn in incremental costs, making it the most expensive labor contract for a US carrier, above the $7.2bn Delta Air Lines pilot accord.

Mary Schlangenstein and Ryan Beene Bloomberg
Date Posted:

American Airlines pilots approved a new contract boosting compensation by 46% over four years. The deal will cost the airline $9.6 billion.

American Airlines pilots approved a new contract boosting compensation by 46% over four years. The deal will cost the...

Are airline pilots winning record pay increases in new contracts?

Core argument: American Airlines pilots approved a four-year contract providing 46% in cumulative pay raises and retirement contributions, plus a bonus, improved scheduling, sick leave, and insurance benefits.

American Airlines pilots approved a new contract that would provide 46% in cumulative pay raises and retirement contributions over its four-year term, along with a bonus, improved scheduling, sick leave, and insurance benefits. The pact will add about $9.6 billion in incremental costs for the airline over its duration, the Allied Pilots Association said in a statement Monday. That makes it the most expensive labor contract ever for a US carrier, topping the $7.2 billion value of an accord Delta Air Lines Inc. pilots secured in March.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. American Airlines pilots approved a four-year contract providing 46% in cumulative pay raises and retirement contributions, plus a bonus, improved scheduling, sick leave, and insurance benefits.
  2. The Allied Pilots Association said the contract will add about $9.6 billion in incremental costs for American Airlines over its duration.
  3. The American Airlines pact is the most expensive labor contract ever for a US carrier, topping the $7.2 billion value of the accord Delta Air Lines pilots secured in March.

Related Articles:

  • UAW Warns Contract Talks With Big Three Carmakers Are Moving ‘Too Slow’ — The United Auto Workers union sought authorization to call a strike, arguing contract talks with the three major Detroit carmakers are moving too slowly. Its demands include pay raises of more than 40%, inflation protection, and equal wages across jobs, which Bloomberg has reported would cost carmakers $80bn over four years.
  • Everyone Wants to Work at UPS After Teamsters Deal — UPS lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing the volume impact from labor negotiations and costs tied to its tentative labor agreement. Under the five-year contract, full-time drivers are set to earn about $170,000 in annual pay and benefits by its end, while part-time union employees earn at least $25.75 an hour plus full health care and pension benefits.
  • The ‘Summer of Strikes’ Isn’t Living Up to the Hype — Recent strike waves differ in composition: earlier ones were dominated by teachers and other state and local government workers, while current strikers are mostly private-sector employees, often organizing location-by-location in stoppages too small to appear in Bureau of Labor Statistics counts. The Cornell-ILR Labor Action Tracker recorded 224,000 workers in stoppages versus the Bureau's 120,600.

AI Summary. Human Rights Watch alleges in a 73-page report that Saudi border forces killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants attempting to cross into the kingdom from Yemen, firing explosive weapons at them and in some cases asking migrants which limb they would prefer to be shot. Saudi Arabia hosts hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian workers.

Andrew England Financial Times
Date Posted:

Saudi security forces have reportedly killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants seeking to enter the KSA. The migrants are largely motivated by higher earning potential in the kingdom.

Are border forces killing migrants attempting to cross from Yemen?

Core argument: Human Rights Watch alleges in a 73-page report that Saudi border forces killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants attempting to cross into the kingdom from Yemen over an 18-month period.

Saudi border forces have killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants attempting to cross into the kingdom from Yemen over the past 18 months, according to a human rights group. New York-based Human Rights Watch alleges in a 73-page report that the security forces “fired explosive weapons” at migrants and in some cases asked them which of their limbs they would prefer to be shot. The kingdom is home to hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian workers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Human Rights Watch alleges in a 73-page report that Saudi border forces killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants attempting to cross into the kingdom from Yemen over an 18-month period.
  2. Human Rights Watch alleges that Saudi security forces "fired explosive weapons" at migrants and in some cases asked them which of their limbs they would prefer to be shot.
  3. Saudi Arabia is home to hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian workers.

Related Articles:

  • How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World — In East Asia and Europe, growing numbers of retirees will depend on a shrinking working-age population, and some Asian countries are aging before becoming rich — China hit its peak working-age population at 20% of US income levels at the same point, Vietnam at 14%.
  • Progressives Are Winning the Immigration Debate — But It Doesn’t Feel Like It — Survey data indicate anti-immigration views across Western countries have declined since their 2016 peak, with the sharpest shifts in the US, Canada and Britain, where the share favoring strict limits or a ban on immigration more than halved from 66% to 31%. Reported discomfort with other races and faiths is also low.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

AI Summary. The US labor force is roughly 5M workers smaller than if it had grown in line with history and GDP, down from a gap of about 7M, and retirements, aging, and skill mismatches make closing it quickly unlikely. The author argues the current wave of artificial intelligence is near its end and has displaced workers without delivering matching productivity gains.

Paul Kedrosky and Eric Norlin Irregular Ideas
Date Posted:

As the American workforce shrinks relative to the economy @pkedrosky @defrag argue the number of workers is a limiting constraint on economic growth. He notes that the current generation of AI isn’t mature enough yet to offset this headwind.

Is current AI displacing workers without delivering productivity gains?

Core argument: Had the labor force kept growing in line with history and GDP, there would be nearly 5M more workers, down from a gap closer to 7M a year earlier.

If the labor force had continued to grow more or less in line with history and GDP, we’d have almost 5M more workers out there. But we don’t. The gap is shrinking—it was closer to 7M a year ago—but it is still a very large number, and, given retirements, skill mismatches, and aging, it seems unlikely we will close that gap quickly, if ever. Absent a wave of immigration, which creates its own problems, politically and otherwise, and doesn’t necessarily fill the observed skill gaps, something needs to change. Historically, when this has happened—labor became more expensive than capital—economies have responded with automation, so we should expect that again today. We think, contrary to hyperbole, we are already at the tail end of the current wave of AI. We need to look past the limits of current AI technology if we are to break free from the past few decades of tech—enabled automation, where there is high worker displacement without commensurate productivity gains impact—where minimal human flourishing is created.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Had the labor force kept growing in line with history and GDP, there would be nearly 5M more workers, down from a gap closer to 7M a year earlier.
  2. Retirements, skill mismatches, and aging make it unlikely the labor force gap closes quickly, if ever, and immigration carries its own political problems while not necessarily filling the observed skill gaps.
  3. Labor becoming more expensive than capital has historically spurred automation, and the same response should be expected now, though the current AI wave is already at its tail end.

Related Articles:

  • Society’s Technical Debt and Software’s Gutenberg Moment — Every wave of technological innovation has been unleashed by something costly becoming cheap enough to waste, and large language models are collapsing the cost and complexity of producing software. The authors argue that decades of underproduced software have left society with immense technical debt that is poised to contract, releasing a wave of innovation.
  • Labor Market Indicators Are Historically Strong After Adjusting for Population Aging — After adjusting for population aging and gender composition, the U.S. employment-to-population ratio has returned to its pre-pandemic trend and the age-adjusted labor force participation rate matches rates last seen in 2001. The authors argue that on this basis the labor market is historically strong, with elevated and even record participation and employment measures.
  • Unions’ Inflation Warning? — The share of people aged 16 and over working or looking for work fell when the pandemic hit and has only partly recovered, with population aging accounting for most of the remaining shortfall. That implies economic activity must run at a lower level to avoid persistent wage and price inflation.

AI Summary. US government annual debt servicing costs are close to $1tn, with net interest expense as a share of total government revenues near all-time highs. Higher interest rates act as a drag on growth through debt servicing costs for the government as well as for consumers and corporations, making it harder for elevated rates to persist when government debt is high.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal argues that higher debt servicing costs will make it difficult to keep interest rates elevated.

Do higher debt servicing costs make elevated interest rates harder to sustain?

Core argument: US federal debt servicing costs are approaching $1 trillion annually, with net interest expense as a share of total government revenues near all-time highs.

The annual debt servicing cost of the US government is close to $1 trillion, and the net interest expense as a share of total government revenues is near all-time high levels. Higher rates are not only slowing down consumers and corporates through higher borrowing costs. Higher rates are also a drag on growth through higher debt servicing costs for the government. In other words, higher debt servicing costs are impacting not only consumers and corporates but also the government. The bottom line is that when government debt levels are high, it is more difficult for interest rates to stay elevated for a long time because the negative impact on the economy of higher rates is also working through higher debt servicing costs for the government.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US federal debt servicing costs are approaching $1 trillion annually, with net interest expense as a share of total government revenues near all-time highs.
  2. Higher interest rates drag on growth not only through borrowing costs for consumers and corporates but also through higher debt servicing costs for the federal government.
  3. When government debt levels are high, it is more difficult for interest rates to stay elevated for a long time because the negative economic impact also works through government debt servicing costs.

Related Articles:

  • Interest Rates Hit 16-Year Record — Interest rates across the Treasury yield curve stand roughly 75 basis points above Congressional Budget Office baseline projections, with the ten-year note at 4.30%, its highest in 16 years. If that gap persists, the authors estimate it would add $2.3tn (6% of GDP) to the debt over ten years.
  • Is a U.S. Debt Crisis Looming? Is it Even Possible? — A debt spiral requires the interest rate on government debt to exceed the economy's growth rate; with inflation-protected 10-year U.S. bond yields near 1.83%, close to most estimates of sustainable growth, any spiral would be slow-moving. Stabilizing debt at 100% of GDP would require a 2% primary surplus.
  • US Fiscal Alarm Bells Are Drowning Out a Deeper Problem — The Congressional Budget Office projects US federal debt held by the public at 98% of national income, within 7.6 percentage points of its 1946 wartime peak and on track to exceed it by 2028. International Monetary Fund forecasts show US debt surpassing Italy's by 2028 and Greece's by the end of the decade.

AI Summary. The ratio of household deposits to disposable income is estimated to be about 9.8 percentage points above its 2019 average and 11.5 points above the 2010-19 average. Just under a quarter of the deposit increase is held by households earning under $50,000 and another 30% by those earning $50,000-$100,000, suggesting these buffers can still support consumer spending.

David Michael Tinsley Bank of America
Date Posted:

.@BankofAmerica notes deposits as a % of personal disposable income remains 9.8pp above 2019 levels. Over 50% of these deposits are held by middle- and lower-income households who may use them to support overall consumer spending.

Do elevated household deposit buffers still support consumer spending?

Core argument: The estimated ratio of deposits to disposable income in 2023 Q2 stands roughly 9.8pp above the 2019 average and about 11.5pp above the 2010–19 average.

The ratio of deposits to disposable income is currently relatively high, at least compared to over the past 30 years. Our estimated ratio of deposits to disposable income in 2023 Q2 would be around 9.8pp above the average in 2019 and around 11.5pp higher than the average over 2010-19. Using Bank of America internal data, we can estimate where the overall rise in deposits relative to 2019 is currently (as of 2023 Q2) held across the income distribution. On this basis, just under a quarter of the rise in total deposits is held by those households on incomes of less than $50,000, with another 30% of households on incomes between $50,000 and $100,000. Therefore, a reasonably large proportion of the remaining deposit buffers appears to be held by middle- and lower-income households, which implies they can still make a meaningful contribution to overall consumer spending.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The estimated ratio of deposits to disposable income in 2023 Q2 stands roughly 9.8pp above the 2019 average and about 11.5pp above the 2010–19 average.
  2. Bank of America internal data indicate that just under a quarter of the rise in total deposits since 2019 is held by households earning less than $50,000, with another 30% by those earning $50,000–$100,000.
  3. A reasonably large share of the remaining deposit buffers appears to be held by middle- and lower-income households, implying those households can still make a meaningful contribution to overall consumer spending.

Related Articles:

  • Excess No More? Dwindling Pandemic Savings — Research on U.S. household savings after the pandemic recession points to rapid accumulation and then drawdown of excess savings, with cumulative drawdowns exceeding $1.9tn and less than $190bn of excess savings remaining in the aggregate economy. The authors estimate that if recent drawdown rates persist, aggregate excess savings would be depleted.
  • The Trickling Up of Excess Savings — The authors argue that excess savings created by debt-financed government transfers do not disappear as households spend them down; instead they "trickle up" to wealthier households with lower propensities to spend, so the boost to aggregate demand fades only slowly. Their benchmark estimate puts this at roughly 5 years rather than a few quarters.
  • Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective — The authors construct measures of excess household savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic and find they have been unwound in the United States, declined in advanced foreign economies, and slowed in emerging market economies. Past recessions featured smaller increases in excess savings and greater persistence in the accumulated stock.

AI Summary. India landed an uncrewed probe near the Moon's unexplored South Pole, a milestone in its effort to become an international power in space exploration, while a Russian attempt to land in the same region ended with its spacecraft crashing into the surface. Scientists say the region may contain water, making it crucial to any ambitions to inhabit the Moon.

Benjamin Parkin Financial Times
Date Posted:

India became the first nation to land a probe near the Moon’s South Pole, which contains water ice that could be a resource for future missions.

India became the first nation to land a probe near the Moon’s South Pole, which contains water ice that could be a...

Has India become a major power in space exploration?

Core argument: India landed an uncrewed probe near the Moon's unexplored South Pole, a milestone in the country's effort to become an international power in space exploration.

India has landed an uncrewed probe near the Moon’s unexplored South Pole, a milestone in the country’s efforts to become an international power in space exploration. The high-profile mission came days after a Russian attempt to land at the South Pole, Moscow’s first lunar mission since 1976, ended in failure. The uncrewed Luna-25 spacecraft spun out of control and crashed into the surface on Sunday. Moscow and New Delhi had been racing to become the first to explore the Moon’s South Pole. Scientists have said the region is of particular interest because it could contain water, which would make it crucial to any ambitions to inhabit the Moon.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. India landed an uncrewed probe near the Moon's unexplored South Pole, a milestone in the country's effort to become an international power in space exploration.
  2. Russia's uncrewed Luna-25 spacecraft, Moscow's first lunar mission since 1976, spun out of control and crashed into the lunar surface days before India's landing.
  3. Scientists say the Moon's South Pole is of particular interest because it could contain water, which would make the region crucial to any ambitions to inhabit the Moon.

Related Articles:

  • US and India Announce Defence and Technology Deals During Visit By Narendra Modi — The US and India announced defense and technology agreements including an Indian purchase of armed MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones from General Atomics, a $2.75bn Micron semiconductor assembly and test facility in India with $800mn from the company, and General Electric co-producing fighter jet engines in India.
  • Indian Stock Market Surges as Foreign Funds Buy Into National Growth Story — Indian equities rose $440bn to more than $3.5tn in value, making India the world's fifth-largest stock market after the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong, ahead of France and the UK. Foreign portfolio investors added a net $9.4bn to Indian shares in the quarter, with analysts attributing the bulk of this year's inflows to passive index buying.
  • India Equity: An Unsung Long-Term Performance Story — Cumulative total returns for Indian equities have been comparable to or better than US equities over roughly three decades, while Chinese equities have lagged both, according to index data for the MSCI India, S&P 500, and MSCI China indexes.

AI Summary. China has developed technology for mass production of ultra-strong carbon fibre, with a production line capable of 1,700 tonnes a year, potentially breaking international monopolies on a material used in aerospace, defence, transport, new energy and marine engineering. China had been largely blocked from carbon fibre production by US and Japanese bans on exports of manufacturing equipment.

Zhang Tong South China Morning Post
Date Posted:

A Chinese firm can now manufacture carbon fibre an important defense material. China has largely been blocked from large-scale production of carbon fiber by American and Japanese export controls. @SCMPNews

A Chinese firm can now manufacture carbon fibre an important defense material. China has largely been blocked from...

Can China break foreign monopolies on ultra-strong carbon fibre production?

Core argument: China has developed technology for mass production of ultra-strong carbon fibre, with Changsheng Technology and Shenzhen University producing high-performance carbon fibre on a line capable of 1,700 tonnes per year.

China has developed technology for the mass production of ultra-strong carbon fibre, which could help break international monopolies to supply materials for the aerospace and defence industries. Changsheng Technology worked with Shenzhen University to produce high-performance carbon fibre on a production line that can make 1,700 tonnes of the material per year. Carbon fibre is indispensable for the aerospace, defence, transport, new energy and marine engineering industries. China had been largely blocked from carbon fibre production because of US and Japanese bans on exports of manufacturing equipment to the country.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China has developed technology for mass production of ultra-strong carbon fibre, with Changsheng Technology and Shenzhen University producing high-performance carbon fibre on a line capable of 1,700 tonnes per year.
  2. Carbon fibre is indispensable to the aerospace, defence, transport, new energy and marine engineering industries, and Chinese production could help break international monopolies on supplying the material.
  3. China had been largely blocked from carbon fibre production by US and Japanese bans on exports of manufacturing equipment to the country.

Related Articles:

  • China’s ‘Two Sessions’ 2023: Xi Jinping Directly Accuses US of Leading Western Suppression of China — China's leadership has accused the United States of leading Western countries in all-round containment and suppression of China's development, calling it a severe challenge. China's central government proposed raising science and technology spending by 2% to 328bn yuan ($47bn) and overhauling how government research funds are allocated, giving scientists greater say over technological road maps.
  • US Adds 36 Chinese Companies to Trade Blacklist — The US Commerce Department added 36 Chinese companies to its "entity list" trade blacklist, requiring American firms to obtain hard-to-get licenses to export critical technologies to them. The move extends US efforts to slow China's development of advanced chips and military technologies such as hypersonic weapons.