Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Friday, July 28, 2023

AI Summary. Research classifying incomes by percentile finds that among top students, 19% of those who attended elite schools reach the richest 1% of the income distribution, versus 12% of those who did not. The authors compare these upper-tail outcomes to lottery tickets: elite schools offer many, most worth nothing, a few a jackpot.

Josh Zumbrun Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
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.@JoshZumbrun, evaluating the differences between @OppInsights recent research on elite schools and Krueger’s earlier findings, shows that elite schools don’t have that much impact outside of lottery-like tail outcomes.

Do elite schools raise top students' odds of reaching the top 1%?

Core argument: Among top students, 19% of those attending elite schools reach the richest 1% of the income distribution, versus 12% of comparable students who did not attend, according to Chetty and his co-authors.

Dale and Krueger had classified everyone who earned more than $200,000 into the same category, making no distinction between an affluent doctor earning $250,000 and Jeff Bezos. Chetty and his authors use a slightly different approach. They classify everyone’s income into percentiles—80th, 81st, etc. Among top students, 19% who attend the top schools make it to the richest 1% of the income distribution, versus 12% who didn’t attend. Chetty’s co-author Deming compares those upper-tail outcomes to winning the lottery: Elite schools have lots of lottery tickets lying on the ground, whereas most other colleges only have a few. For most people, the lottery ticket will be worth nothing. For a few, it is a jackpot.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Among top students, 19% of those attending elite schools reach the richest 1% of the income distribution, versus 12% of comparable students who did not attend, according to Chetty and his co-authors.
  2. Dale and Krueger grouped all earners above $200,000 into a single category, making no distinction between a doctor earning $250,000 and Jeff Bezos, while Chetty and his co-authors classify income by percentile.
  3. Chetty's co-author Deming likens elite-school upper-tail outcomes to a lottery in which top schools have many tickets lying on the ground and most other colleges only a few, with most tickets worth nothing and a few paying a jackpot.

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AI Summary. Medicare pays hospital-owned facilities 2-3x what it pays independent physician offices for the same service, creating an incentive for hospital chains to acquire outpatient practices; the share of hospital-owned physician practices rose from 14% to 31% over six years. Equalizing payments is estimated to save $346bn-$672bn over a decade.

Bobby Jindal and Charlie Katebi Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
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.@BobbyJindal argues that simple reforms in Medicare billing could save patients and taxpayers somewhere between $346B and $672B over the next 10 years.

.@BobbyJindal argues that simple reforms in Medicare billing could save patients and taxpayers somewhere between $346B and...

How much would paying the same rate regardless of ownership save?

Core argument: Medicare pays hospital-owned facilities two to three times as much as independent physician offices for the same service, according to the Alliance for Site Neutral Payment Reform, creating an incentive for large hospital chains to acquire outpatient practices.

Cur­rently, Medicare pays hos­pi­tal-owned fa­cil­i­ties two to three times as much as in­de­pen­dent physi­cian of­fices for the same ser­vice, ac­cord­ing to the Al­liance for Site Neu­tral Pay­ment Re­form. This cre­ates an enor­mous in­cen­tive for large hos­pi­tal chains to ac­quire out­pa­tient prac­tices. A re­port by the Physi­cian Ad­vo­cacy In­sti­tute found that the share of hos­pi­tal-owned physi­cian prac­tices more than dou­bled, from 14% to 31%, be­tween 2012 and 2018. By 2020 more than half of physi­cians worked di­rectly for a hos­pi­tal or at a physi­cian prac­tice owned by a hos­pi­tal, ac­cord­ing to the Amer­i­can Med­ical As­so­ci­a­tion.  Re­mov­ing these per­verse in­cen­tives could save pa­tients and tax­pay­ers be­tween $346 bil­lion and $672 bil­lion over the next decade.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Medicare pays hospital-owned facilities two to three times as much as independent physician offices for the same service, according to the Alliance for Site Neutral Payment Reform, creating an incentive for large hospital chains to acquire outpatient practices.
  2. The share of hospital-owned physician practices more than doubled, from 14% to 31%, between 2012 and 2018, according to a Physician Advocacy Institute report, and by 2020 more than half of physicians worked for a hospital or hospital-owned practice, according to the American Medical Association.
  3. Removing Medicare's site-based payment differences could save patients and taxpayers between $346 billion and $672 billion over the next decade.

AI Summary. Core personal consumption inflation came in very low, the second-lowest pace of the inflationary period, at a 2.3% annual rate over the past three months, and substituting new rents for all rents shows a more pronounced slowdown. Inflation is slowing with reason to expect further slowing as shelter costs come down, though some of the good news may prove transitory.

Jason Furman @jasonfurman
Date Posted:

.@jasonfurman notes the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core-PCE, came in very low, running at 4.1% y/y. He says that this “Confirms the good June CPI news (but no real new info).”

Is core inflation slowing as shelter costs come down?

Core argument: Core PCE inflation came in very low, a touch above expectations but the second-lowest pace of the inflationary period, according to Jason Furman.

Core PCE inflation came in very low (albeit a touch above expectations), the second lowest pace of the inflationary period. If you swap in new rents for all rents you see a more pronounced slowdown (although not nearly as dramatic as the same adjustment for the CPI). This is a 2.3% annual rate over the last 3 months. In sum, this tells the same story as the CPI: inflation is slowing, there is reason to believe there will be further slowing as shelter comes down but also some worries about some of the good news being transitory. But overall the June inflation data was good news.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Core PCE inflation came in very low, a touch above expectations but the second-lowest pace of the inflationary period, according to Jason Furman.
  2. Furman notes that substituting new rents for all rents shows a more pronounced slowdown, though not nearly as dramatic as the same adjustment for the CPI, amounting to a 2.3% annual rate over the last three months.
  3. Furman reads the June inflation data as good news telling the same story as the CPI, with reason to expect further slowing as shelter comes down but some worry that part of the good news is transitory.

Related Articles:

AI Summary. China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it consumes and holds reserves sufficient for about three months at current consumption, so a sustained buildup of those reserves would be among the clearest signals it is preparing for war. China is also the world's largest agricultural importer, with wheat reserves an official described as covering 18 months of demand.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

.@TheEconomist argues that increasing stockpiles of imported food and energy could signal China’s intent to invade Taiwan.

Do stockpiles of oil and grain signal China's war preparations?

Core argument: China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it consumes and holds reserves sufficient for about three months at today's consumption rate, so a sustained build-up of those reserves would be one of the best indicators that it is preparing for war.

China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it uses. The substance accounts for only 20% of the country’s energy use, but it would be crucial to any war effort. If China were to start increasing its reserves—it currently has enough to last three months at today’s consumption rate—that would be one of the best indicators that it is preparing for war. China imports more agricultural produce than any other country. Obsessed with food security, it already has enormous stockpiles. In 2021 an official said its wheat reserves could meet demand for 18 months. Over the past decade, China has greatly increased its purchases of wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it consumes and holds reserves sufficient for about three months at today's consumption rate, so a sustained build-up of those reserves would be one of the best indicators that it is preparing for war.
  2. Oil accounts for only 20% of China's energy use but would be crucial to any war effort.
  3. China imports more agricultural produce than any other country and has greatly increased purchases of wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans over the past decade, with an official stating in 2021 that wheat reserves could meet demand for 18 months.

AI Summary. Analysts argue the historical record offers limited guidance because this has not been a typical business cycle: pandemic shutdowns abruptly halted growth and widespread government stimulus fueled a rapid rebound, producing shortages, bottlenecks and unusually strong demand in unexpected parts of the economy. That disruption contributed to inflation, and the slow return to normal is helping it fade.

Jeanna Smialek New York Times
Date Posted:

On Wednesday, Jerome Powell said Fed staff economists are no longer predicting a recession in 2023. @jeannasmialek notes such optimism has been wrong in the past: 1994-95 was the only true soft landing.

Does history offer useful guidance for this unusual business cycle?

Core argument: Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, said the historical record may not be particularly instructive in 2023, because this has not been a typical business cycle of heady growth, recession, and gradual recovery.

The historical record may not be particularly instructive in 2023, said Michael Feroli, the chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan. This has not been a typical business cycle, in which the economy grew headily, fell into recession, and then clawed its way back. Instead, growth was abruptly halted by coronavirus shutdowns and then rocketed back with the help of widespread government stimulus, leading to shortages, bottlenecks and unusually strong demand in unexpected parts of the economy. All of the weirdness contributed to inflation, and the slow return to normal is now helping it fade.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, said the historical record may not be particularly instructive in 2023, because this has not been a typical business cycle of heady growth, recession, and gradual recovery.
  2. Growth was abruptly halted by coronavirus shutdowns and then rocketed back with the help of widespread government stimulus, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and unusually strong demand in unexpected parts of the economy.
  3. The economy's distortions contributed to inflation, and the slow return to normal is now helping inflation fade.

Monday, July 31, 2023

AI Summary. U.S. electricity demand has grown at an average of 1% a year over the past 20 years, but McKinsey projects it will double by 2050 and PG&E expects a 70% rise over the next 20 years. Deloitte estimates the largest U.S. electric companies will together spend as much as $1.8tn by 2030.

Tim Higgins Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

.@elonmusk predicts US electricity consumption will triple by 2045. PG&E forecast electrical demand will be up 70% over next 20 years, while McKinsey expects demand will double by 2050.

.@elonmusk predicts US electricity consumption will triple by 2045. PG&E forecast electrical demand will be up 70% over...

Is U.S. electricity demand growth set to accelerate sharply?

Core argument: Elon Musk predicts U.S. electricity consumption will triple by around 2045 and anticipates a shortage within two years that could stunt the energy-hungry development of artificial intelligence.

Elon Musk is predicting U.S. consumption of electricity will triple by around 2045. “I can’t emphasize enough: we need more electricity however much electricity you think you need, more than that is needed.” He anticipates an electricity shortage in two years that could stunt the energy-hungry development of artificial intelligence. For the past 20 years, U.S. electricity demand has grown at an average rate of 1% each year, according to a Deloitte study. PG&E expects electricity demand will rise 70% in the next 20 years, which, the California company notes, would be unprecedented. Similarly, McKinsey expects U.S. demand will double by 2050. Deloitte estimates the largest U.S. electric companies together will spend as much as $1.8 trillion by 2030.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Elon Musk predicts U.S. electricity consumption will triple by around 2045 and anticipates a shortage within two years that could stunt the energy-hungry development of artificial intelligence.
  2. U.S. electricity demand has grown at an average of 1% a year over the past 20 years, according to a Deloitte study, while McKinsey expects demand to double by 2050.
  3. PG&E expects electricity demand to rise 70% over the next 20 years, which the California company notes would be unprecedented, and Deloitte estimates the largest U.S. electric companies together will spend as much as $1.8 trillion by 2030.

Related Articles:

  • Gridlock: How a Lack of Power Lines Will Delay the Age of Renewables — A study led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found nearly 2,000GW of solar, wind and storage projects waiting in queues to connect to US long-distance transmission grids, more than the installed capacity of the entire US power plant fleet. The authors find only about a fifth of such requested projects are typically built.
  • Summers and Blanchard Debate the Future of Interest Rates — With expected inflation near 2.5%, a real interest rate of 1.5% to 2%, and some risk and term premium, short-term interest rates would average around 4%, one argument in a debate on the future of interest rates holds. If traditional spreads reassert themselves, longer-term rates would run about 1 percentage point higher, near 5%.

AI Summary. Real per-capita consumption has returned to its pre-COVID trend at the fastest pace of any modern recession, unlike the lasting shortfall left by the 2008 recession. Real consumption of durable goods has far exceeded the pre-pandemic trend, reversing part of a decade in which durable goods' share of household spending fell and barely recovered.

Joseph Politano Apricitas Economics
Date Posted:

.@JosephPolitano notes that real per-capita consumption briefly caught up with the pre-crisis trend, and argues the post-crisis period of persistent underinvestment, low employment, and sluggish growth is over.

Has consumption returned to its pre-pandemic trend faster than after past recessions?

Core argument: U.S. real per-capita consumption has returned not just to pre-COVID levels but broadly to its pre-COVID trend, at the fastest pace of any modern recession, in contrast to the permanent consumption scars left by the 2008 recession.

Not only has real per-capita consumption recovered to pre-COVID levels, but it has actually broadly returned to its pre-COVID trend at the fastest pace of any modern recession—in stark contrast to the permanent scars on consumption left by the 2008 recession. In fact, growth in real consumption of durable goods has not only vastly exceeded the pre-pandemic trend but briefly caught up with the pre-Great Recession trend, and remains high even as it hasn’t grown in several years. The 2010s saw durable goods’ share of spending sink by roughly 3% in 3 years and barely recover afterward. Not until the pandemic did durable goods consumption spending climb back to its pre-recession share of household budgets. That meant more than a decade of, effectively, household underinvestment in some of the most-important big-ticket items that provide long-term welfare and enhance people’s economic productivity—and that is being partially undone today.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. real per-capita consumption has returned not just to pre-COVID levels but broadly to its pre-COVID trend, at the fastest pace of any modern recession, in contrast to the permanent consumption scars left by the 2008 recession.
  2. Real consumption of durable goods has vastly exceeded its pre-pandemic trend and briefly caught up with the pre-Great Recession trend, remaining high even though it has not grown in several years.
  3. Durable goods' share of spending fell roughly 3% in three years during the 2010s and barely recovered until the pandemic, amounting to more than a decade of household underinvestment in big-ticket items that is now being partially undone.

AI Summary. Occupations with the fastest pay gains have seen wage growth normalize while pay growth elsewhere remains persistently faster, with only modest deceleration from the peak. The author argues the neutral policy rate has risen as an investment drought ends, making 5.5% short-term rates unremarkable and 4% 10-year Treasury yields potentially too low.

Matt Klein The Overshoot
Date Posted:

.@M_C_Klein notes strong nominal wage growth and increased demand for investment aren’t consistent with a deflationary process and notes the “neutral” rate of interest may have risen relative to pre-pandemic levels.

Does persistent wage growth justify keeping interest rates higher for longer?

Core argument: Occupations with the fastest pay gains in 2021–2022 have seen wage growth normalize, while the rest of the economy still shows persistently faster pay growth, with only very modest deceleration from the early-2022 peak.

The overall picture is that occupations where pay rose the fastest in 2021-2022 have since seen pay growth normalize, while jobs in the rest of the economy are still experiencing persistently faster pay growth. There has been some deceleration relative to the peak at the beginning of 2022, but it has been very modest. One good reason to think that the “neutral” policy rate has gone up is that the post-2000 investment drought is finally ending thanks in no small part to the U.S. government’s subsidies. In this environment, short-term interest rates of 5.5%—which is what the U.S. endured in the second half of the 1990s without problems when inflation was slower—do not seem particularly high. If that is correct, then 4% yields on 10-year Treasury notes could be too low, which could also have implications for the appropriate discount rates for stocks.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Occupations with the fastest pay gains in 2021–2022 have seen wage growth normalize, while the rest of the economy still shows persistently faster pay growth, with only very modest deceleration from the early-2022 peak.
  2. The end of the post-2000 investment drought, aided in no small part by U.S. government subsidies, is one reason to think the "neutral" policy rate has risen.
  3. Short-term rates of 5.5% do not appear particularly high given that the U.S. endured that level without problems in the second half of the 1990s when inflation was slower, suggesting 4% yields on 10-year Treasury notes could be too low, with possible implications for stock discount rates.

Related Articles:

  • What Have We Learned About the Neutral Rate? — Analysts estimate that if inflation is brought down without a recession, the Federal Reserve's policy rate will stabilize nearer 3–3.25% than the 2.5% longer-run median projection of Federal Reserve officials. Projected shifts in government debt and demographics imply a roughly 0.5 percentage point net increase in the neutral rate over the next decade.

AI Summary. Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Oregon, Illinois and Utah approved the largest home-insurance rate increases, ranging from 20% to 30%, while some insurers have stopped selling new policies in states such as California and pulled back from disaster-prone areas. Reinsurance premiums, which insurers buy to offload risk, rose 33% to 50% at recent renewals.

Jean Eaglesham Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Since 2022, 31 states have approved double-digit home insurance rate increases as insurers seek to properly price risk.

Are home insurers raising rates and reducing coverage?

Core argument: Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Oregon, Illinois and Utah recorded the biggest totals of approved home-insurance rate increases, ranging from 20% to 30%.

Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Oregon, Illinois and Utah had the biggest total of approved increases, ranging from 20% to 30%. In states such as California, some insurers are halting sales of new policies. Companies are also pulling back from some areas vulnerable to disasters. The escalating cost of catastrophes is reflected in a steep increase in premiums for the reinsurance coverage that home-insurance companies buy to pass on some of their risk. Depending on the state regulator, those higher premiums can feed directly through to the price charged to homeowners. Data shows reinsurance premiums were up on average 33% for June 1 renewals, which includes many Florida carriers, and 50% for renewals at the start of this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Oregon, Illinois and Utah recorded the biggest totals of approved home-insurance rate increases, ranging from 20% to 30%.
  2. Reinsurance premiums that home insurers buy to pass on risk rose an average of 33% for June 1 renewals, which include many Florida carriers, and 50% for renewals at the start of this year.
  3. Some insurers in states such as California are halting sales of new policies and pulling back from areas vulnerable to disasters, and higher reinsurance premiums can feed through to homeowners depending on the state regulator.

Related Articles:

  • Why California and Florida Have Become Almost Uninsurable — Wildfires in California and hurricanes in Florida have generated large volumes of insurance claims, while higher housing prices and construction and repair costs have made each claim more expensive. Insurers have also faced costlier reinsurance, with worldwide average reinsurance rates up about a quarter in one year and another third the next, according to reinsurance broker Howden Tiger.
  • Climate Shocks Are Making Parts of America Uninsurable. It Just Got Worse — State Farm, California's largest homeowner insurer, stopped accepting applications for most new home insurance policies statewide, citing rapidly growing catastrophe exposure. Florida faced a similar retreat by national carriers after Hurricane Andrew and responded with a market of small insurers backed by a state-mandated company providing windstorm coverage to homeowners who cannot obtain private insurance.
  • Farmers Insurance Limits Sales in Florida, California Amid Storm, Wildfire Risks — Farmers Insurance is limiting homeowners policy sales in Florida and California, hurricane- and wildfire-prone states, joining other large insurers in pulling back. In Florida it is ending sales of home, auto, and umbrella policies under its own brand — about 30% of the policies it sells there, affecting roughly 89,000 policies.

AI Summary. High-voltage direct current transmission loses as little as 3% per 1,000km, about 30-40% less than alternating current, and becomes economic for subsea links beyond roughly 60km. New high-voltage cable orders have climbed from about $3bn a year to $11bn, with estimates exceeding $20bn before settling at $18bn-$20bn annually.

Rachel Millard Financial Times
Date Posted:

Demand for high-voltage cables outside China is increasingly supply-constrained which will soon start to delay major renewable energy projects.

Can cable supply keep up with surging high-voltage transmission demand?

Core argument: High-voltage cable orders have risen from about $3bn of new projects awarded per year in 2015–20 to $11bn in 2022, with Prysmian's incoming chief executive Massimo Battaini estimating this year's new orders will likely exceed $20bn before settling at $18bn–$20bn per year.

Sending electricity at very high voltage is more efficient, if more expensive, with losses potentially as low as 3% per 1,000km for direct current systems, which have less resistance. This is about 30-40% lower than for alternating current systems. “HVDC [high-voltage direct current] becomes economic at about the 60km mark” for subsea systems, says Ian Douglas, chief executive of cable company XLCC. Demand for high-voltage cables is booming, with the market climbing from a typical $3bn of new projects awarded per year between 2015-20 to $11bn in 2022. This year, the estimated value of new orders is likely to exceed $20bn before settling at $18bn-$20bn per year, according to Massimo Battaini, incoming chief executive of Prysmian. “We are fully booked until 2026/27,” he says.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. High-voltage cable orders have risen from about $3bn of new projects awarded per year in 2015–20 to $11bn in 2022, with Prysmian's incoming chief executive Massimo Battaini estimating this year's new orders will likely exceed $20bn before settling at $18bn–$20bn per year.
  2. High-voltage direct current transmission can lose as little as 3% per 1,000km owing to lower resistance, roughly 30–40% below losses for alternating current systems, though it is more expensive.
  3. XLCC chief executive Ian Douglas says high-voltage direct current becomes economic at about the 60km mark for subsea systems, and Prysmian's Massimo Battaini says the company is fully booked until 2026/27.

Related Articles:

  • Gridlock: How a Lack of Power Lines Will Delay the Age of Renewables — A study led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found nearly 2,000GW of solar, wind and storage projects waiting in queues to connect to US long-distance transmission grids, more than the installed capacity of the entire US power plant fleet. The authors find only about a fifth of such requested projects are typically built.

AI Summary. Plant Vogtle unit 3 in Georgia, a 1,100-megawatt reactor originally slated to enter service in 2016, is the first nuclear reactor built from scratch in the US in more than three decades. The combined cost of Vogtle units 3 and 4 has grown from an original $14bn to more than $30bn.

Myles McCormick Financial Times
Date Posted:

The first new US nuclear facility in 30 years will start to deliver power this summer; however, cost overruns have led to diminished investor interest in future projects.

The first new US nuclear facility in 30 years will start to deliver power this summer; however, cost overruns have led to...

Are cost overruns and delays discouraging new US nuclear construction?

Core argument: Costs for Plant Vogtle units 3 and 4 have risen from an original $14bn to more than $30bn, with Georgia Power's 45% share running about $15bn.

When Plant Vogtle unit 3 finally delivers commercial electricity to the Georgia power grid, it will be the first nuclear reactor the country has built from scratch in more than three decades. The 1,100-megawatt Vogtle unit 3 was initially supposed to enter service in 2016. Georgia Power, the utility driving the project, most recently said it would start commercial operations in July after the latest delay caused by a degraded seal in its main generator. The $14bn original cost of Vogtle units 3 and 4 has now ballooned to more than $30bn. The cost for Georgia Power, with a 45% share of the project, will be about $15bn.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Costs for Plant Vogtle units 3 and 4 have risen from an original $14bn to more than $30bn, with Georgia Power's 45% share running about $15bn.
  2. The 1,100-megawatt Vogtle unit 3 was originally scheduled to enter service in 2016, and Georgia Power most recently said commercial operations would begin in July after a delay caused by a degraded seal in its main generator.
  3. Vogtle unit 3 will be the first nuclear reactor built from scratch in the United States in more than three decades when it delivers commercial electricity to the Georgia power grid.

Related Articles:

  • Pricey Things — US nuclear generation has been flat for decades as retirements of aging plants offset additions, with the only recent new capacity additions coming decades apart. New capacity of 2.2 GW at Georgia's Vogtle plant is expected to add roughly 17-18 TWh per year, pushing US nuclear output back toward, but not reaching, 800 TWh annually.

AI Summary. Major European cities now record far more days with mid-afternoon temperatures above 30°C than in the early 1950s — 2.7x as many in Athens, 3.7x in Barcelona, 8.1x in Paris, and 10.4x in London. Mountain areas are warming roughly as much as coastal ones, reducing snow cover in the Alps.

Niall Ferguson Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Citing the rise in the frequency of extreme heat globally, @nfergus argues investors should “short shores, long hills” as changes in temperature increasingly impact financial markets and politics.

How much more extreme heat do European cities record now?

Core argument: London recorded 10.4 times as many days with mid-afternoon temperatures above 30°C in 2019–23 as in the early 1950s, alongside 8.1 times in Paris, 3.7 times in Barcelona, and 2.7 times in Athens.

Global warming no longer needs to be a theory; it’s a reality. Extreme heat is significantly more common in major cities these days (2019-23) than it was in the early 1950s. To be precise, there are 2.7 times as many days with mid-afternoon temperatures above 30 C in Athens; 3.7 times in Barcelona; 8.1 times in Paris; and an amazing 10.4 times in London. The mountains are seeing temperatures rise roughly as much as the beaches. The effects on snow cover in the Alps are all too familiar to European skiers. Short shores, long hills may not turn out to be the trade of the century. But short shores, long hills feels right.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. London recorded 10.4 times as many days with mid-afternoon temperatures above 30°C in 2019–23 as in the early 1950s, alongside 8.1 times in Paris, 3.7 times in Barcelona, and 2.7 times in Athens.
  2. Mountain temperatures are rising roughly as much as those at the beaches, with effects on Alpine snow cover familiar to European skiers.
  3. Going short shores and long hills feels right, though it may not turn out to be the trade of the century.

Related Articles:

  • Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy — The positive association between extreme heat and U.S. county population growth weakened over recent decades and disappeared entirely in the 2010s, as hot counties grew hotter. Projected climate change is predicted to shift population from the Southeast and parts of the Southwest toward the North, Mountain West, and Pacific coast.
  • Global Temperatures Have Broken Records Three Times In A Week — Average global air temperature set new records three times within a single week. Aside from global warming, the biggest influence on Earth's temperature is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and because past highs have typically come near the end of a strong El Niño, the recent switch to El Niño is unlikely to explain these records.

AI Summary. U.S. investigations indicate suspected Chinese malware is embedded more widely in networks in the United States and at American facilities abroad than officials initially realized, though its full extent is unknown because the code is well hidden. Officials debate whether it targets military operations or civilian life during a conflict.

David Sanger and Julian Barnes New York Times
Date Posted:

Chinese hackers have hidden malicious computer code in US computer networks that control power grids and water supplies to military bases globally. The code is not designed for intelligence gathering but for offensive operations.

Chinese hackers have hidden malicious computer code in US computer networks that control power grids and water supplies to...

Is hidden foreign malware more widespread in American networks than realized?

Core argument: U.S. investigations into Chinese malware indicate the effort is more widespread across the United States and at American facilities abroad than officials had initially realized.

The investigations so far show the Chinese effort appears more widespread — in the United States and at American facilities abroad — than they had initially realized. But officials acknowledge that they do not know the full extent of the code’s presence in networks around the world, partly because it is so well hidden. There is a debate inside the administration over whether the goal of the operation is primarily aimed at disrupting the military, or at civilian life more broadly in the event of a conflict.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. investigations into Chinese malware indicate the effort is more widespread across the United States and at American facilities abroad than officials had initially realized.
  2. U.S. officials acknowledge they do not know the full extent of the Chinese code's presence in networks around the world, partly because the malware is so well hidden.
  3. Administration officials are divided over whether the Chinese operation is aimed primarily at disrupting the military or at civilian life more broadly in the event of a conflict.

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AI Summary. The US will provide Taiwan with $345mn in weapons drawn directly from American military stockpiles, the first such transfer under an annual $1bn presidential drawdown authority approved by Congress. Previous US support for Taiwan came through approved arms sales rather than direct provision from US stocks.

Demetri Sevastopulo Financial Times
Date Posted:

Using the same “presidential drawdown authority” used to send arms to Ukraine, the Pentagon is directly providing weapons to Taiwan for the first time. Last year Congress approved a $1 billion of drawdown support to Taiwan.

Using the same “presidential drawdown authority” used to send arms to Ukraine, the Pentagon is directly...

Is the US sending Taiwan weapons directly from its own stockpiles?

Core argument: The White House announced $345mn in weapons for Taiwan drawn from US stockpiles, the first time the Pentagon will send arms directly to Taiwan rather than through approved sales.

The US will provide Taiwan with $345mn in weapons, marking the first time the Pentagon will send arms directly to the country. The White House on Friday announced its plan to provide weapons from US stockpiles in the first tranche of an annual $1bn “presidential drawdown authority” (PDA) Congress approved last year to support Taiwan. Successive US administrations have approved the sale of weapons to Taiwan. But this is the first time the arms have been directly provided under the PDA — the same authority that the Biden administration has been using to send weapons to Ukraine.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The White House announced $345mn in weapons for Taiwan drawn from US stockpiles, the first time the Pentagon will send arms directly to Taiwan rather than through approved sales.
  2. The $345mn package is the first tranche of an annual $1bn presidential drawdown authority for Taiwan that Congress approved last year.
  3. The presidential drawdown authority used for Taiwan is the same authority the Biden administration has been using to send weapons to Ukraine.

Related Articles:

  • US To Link Up With Taiwan and Japan Drone Fleets To Share Real-Time Data — The US, Taiwan and Japan plan to share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones, with Taiwan's four MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones integrated into the same system used by US forces in the region and Japan's Self-Defense Force. The arrangement would let the US and its allies view the same drone-gathered information simultaneously.
  • US Effort to Arm Taiwan Faces New Challenge With Ukraine Conflict — The backlog of US weapons ordered by Taiwan but not yet delivered has grown to $18.7bn from more than $14bn, including undelivered orders for 208 Javelin antitank weapons and 215 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Defense manufacturers cite pandemic-driven supply-chain problems and difficulty keeping up with orders.