Edward Conard

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Friday, June 2, 2023

The Size of Firms and the Nature of Innovation

AI Summary. Corporate research and development spending scales proportionately with sales, but evidence indicates firms produce fewer inventions per research dollar as they grow. Larger firms' innovation is more likely to improve existing products than create new ones, and patent evidence shows bigger firms engage in more incremental innovation and cite their own patents more often.

Matt Clancy and Arnaud Dyèvre What's New Under The Sun
Date Posted:
June 2, 2023
Is Database:
Database

.@mattsclancy and @ArnaudDyevre survey the innovation literature and conclude that large firms and small firms invest a similar percentage of sales in R+D, but large firms are less productive, with fewer innovations and less impact per research dollar.

Do larger firms produce less innovation per research dollar?

Core argument: Corporate R&D spending scales proportionately with sales — when a firm's sales double, its R&D spending doubles too — yet multiple lines of evidence show firms obtain fewer inventions per R&D dollar as they grow.

The first important fact about firm heterogeneity and innovation is that corporate R&D expenditures scale up proportionately with their sales. In other words, when sales double, money spent on R&D doubles too. A variety of different lines of evidence show that firms get fewer inventions per R&D dollar as they grow. Finally, when large and established firms actually do innovation resulting in observable products and services, it is more likely to be directed toward improving existing products rather than creating new ones. The bigger a firm is, the more it tries to improve its existing products. Patent evidence also points to larger firms engaging in more incremental innovation. Akcigit and Kerr also find that larger firms are more likely to cite their own patents, which is an indication that they are hewing close to the intellectual landscape they have previously explored.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Corporate R&D spending scales proportionately with sales — when a firm's sales double, its R&D spending doubles too — yet multiple lines of evidence show firms obtain fewer inventions per R&D dollar as they grow.
  2. Large and established firms direct innovation that yields observable products and services more toward improving existing products than creating new ones, with the tendency toward improvement rising with firm size.
  3. Akcigit and Kerr find that larger firms are more likely to cite their own patents, an indication they remain close to the intellectual landscape they have already explored, and patent evidence points to more incremental innovation at larger firms.
  • Innovation/Research
  • Productivity
    • Investment

Furman on Jobs Report

AI Summary. Payroll employment rose 339,000 in a month, leaving total jobs 1.3m above the Congressional Budget Office's pre-pandemic forecast, while the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7% and average hourly earnings grew at a 4% annual rate, down from 5% earlier. The author argues this leaves the Federal Reserve free to focus on inflation rather than employment.

Jason Furman @jasonfurman
Date Posted:
June 2, 2023

Though the employment population ratio fell in May @jasonfurman notes for prime age workers it is still above its pre-pandemic level.

Does a strong jobs report free the Fed to focus on inflation?

Core argument: U.S. payrolls rose 339,000 in May, bringing total jobs to 1.3 million above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast, according to Jason Furman.

Another very strong headline jobs number of 339,000 in May. Bringing total jobs to 1.3 million above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. But the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7% which is the 94th percentile of historical one-month changes. The employment-population ratio fell a little in May but for prime age workers it remains above pre-pandemic rates. Finally, average hourly earnings (which are noisier than I would like) were up at a 4% annual rate--same as the rate for the last 3 months & lower than the 5% annual rate they had been running before. Note other indicators suggest some of this slowdown is spurious composition effects. But overall, this suggests the Fed does not need to be especially worried about the employment side of its mandate and should be willing and able to do what it needs to for the side of its mandate that is still very far from where it should be--namely the inflation side.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. payrolls rose 339,000 in May, bringing total jobs to 1.3 million above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast, according to Jason Furman.
  2. The unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in May, which Furman places in the 94th percentile of historical one-month changes, while the prime-age employment-population ratio remains above pre-pandemic rates.
  3. Average hourly earnings rose at a 4% annual rate, matching the prior three months and below the earlier 5% pace, though Furman notes other indicators suggest some of the slowdown reflects spurious composition effects.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • GDP
    • Inflation
  • Workforce

How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?

AI Summary. Interviews and a survey of about 700 businesses find average cost-to-price passthrough in the 60% range during a period of elevated inflation, with wide variation and some firms reporting passthrough above one. Firms report that demand strength, steady profit margins, labor and nonlabor costs, and competitors' prices shape pricing decisions.

Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Keshav Dogra, et al. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Date Posted:
June 2, 2023

A @NewYorkFed survey of about 700 businesses finds an average 60% rate of cost-price passthrough over 2022-23. Survey responses show that managers often set prices as a fixed markup over costs.

How much of rising costs do firms pass into prices?

Core argument: Combining open-ended interviews with a quantitative survey of roughly 700 businesses, the authors find average cost-to-price passthroughs in the 60 percent range during a period of elevated inflation, when firms were intensely knowledgeable about and focused on prices and costs.

Using a research design that combines open-ended interviews with a quantitative survey of about 700 businesses, we find, on average, cost-to-price passthroughs in the 60 percent range during a period of elevated inflation—when firms were intensely knowledgeable about, and focused on, prices and costs. These estimates mask considerable heterogeneity, with some firms reporting a passthrough greater than one. Firms report that the key determinants of their pricing decisions include the strength of demand, maintaining steady profit margins, labor and nonlabor costs, and competitors’ prices.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Combining open-ended interviews with a quantitative survey of roughly 700 businesses, the authors find average cost-to-price passthroughs in the 60 percent range during a period of elevated inflation, when firms were intensely knowledgeable about and focused on prices and costs.
  2. The average passthrough estimates mask considerable heterogeneity across firms, with some businesses reporting passthrough greater than one.
  3. Firms report that the key determinants of their pricing decisions include the strength of demand, maintaining steady profit margins, labor and nonlabor costs, and competitors' prices.
  • Inflation
  • GDP

Japan Demographic Woes Deepen as Birthrate Hits Record Low

AI Summary. Japan's fertility rate fell for a seventh consecutive year to a record low of about 1.26 children per woman, far below the 2.07 rate considered necessary to maintain a stable population. Births fell 5% to 770,747, a record low, while deaths rose 9% to a record 1.57m.

Reuters Staff Nikkei Asia
Date Posted:
June 2, 2023

Japan’s birthrate hit a record low in 2022 as the fertility rate hit 1.25 well under the replacement rate of 2.07. @NikkeiAsia

Japan’s birthrate hit a record low in 2022 as the fertility rate hit 1.25 well under the replacement rate of 2.07....

Is Japan's population shrinking as births fall and deaths rise?

Core argument: Japan's fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2565 in 2022, its seventh consecutive annual decline, below the previous low of 1.2601 set in 2005 and far under the 2.07 rate considered necessary for a stable population.

Japan's birthrate declined for the seventh consecutive year in 2022 to a record low, the health ministry said on Friday, underscoring the sense of crisis gripping the country as the population shrinks and ages rapidly. The fertility rate, or the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, was 1.2565. That compares with the previous low of 1.2601 posted in 2005 and is far below the rate of 2.07 considered necessary to maintain a stable population. The number of newborns in Japan slid 5% to 770,747 last year, a new low, while the number of deaths shot 9% higher to a record 1.57 million, the data showed.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Japan's fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2565 in 2022, its seventh consecutive annual decline, below the previous low of 1.2601 set in 2005 and far under the 2.07 rate considered necessary for a stable population.
  2. Newborns in Japan fell 5% to a record low of 770,747 in 2022, while deaths rose 9% to a record 1.57 million, according to health ministry data.
  • Demographics
  • Workforce

China Has Tamed the World’s Most Powerful Explosive, Military Scientists Say

AI Summary. Chinese military scientists say they have improved the safety of CL-20, the most powerful non-nuclear explosive, by increasing its shock resistance five-fold, which they argue could accelerate its large-scale battlefield use. A US study commissioned by the Pentagon found China is the only country able to mass-produce CL-20.

Stephen Chen South China Morning Post
Date Posted:
June 2, 2023

Chinese researchers have significantly improved the safety of the world’s most powerful explosive, which will enable the Chinese military to deploy CL-20 explosives in more ordnance. @SCMPNews

Chinese researchers have significantly improved the safety of the world’s most powerful explosive, which will enable the...

Has China made the world's most powerful non-nuclear explosive safer to deploy?

Core argument: A Chinese research team says it engineered a five-fold increase in the shock resistance of CL-20, which the scientists describe as significantly improving the safety of the world's most powerful non-nuclear explosive.

A Chinese research team said they have significantly improved the safety of the world’s most powerful explosive by engineering a five-fold boost to its shock resistance capacity. The breakthrough could speed up the large-scale application of the explosive in battle, making Chinese weapons far superior in terms of destructive power, according to the scientists. CL-20 is the most deadly non-nuclear explosive in existence. When detonated, it can produce destructive shock waves with blast pressures many times higher than other common explosives like TNT and RDX. The mass production of CL-20 is extremely difficult. China is the only country so far to possess such industrial capability and has used the explosive in some of its newest weapons, according to a US Energetics Technology Centre study commissioned by the Pentagon in 2021.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A Chinese research team says it engineered a five-fold increase in the shock resistance of CL-20, which the scientists describe as significantly improving the safety of the world's most powerful non-nuclear explosive.
  2. The Chinese scientists say the improvement could speed large-scale battlefield application of CL-20, which produces blast pressures many times higher than common explosives such as TNT and RDX.
  3. China is the only country with the industrial capability to mass-produce CL-20, a process described as extremely difficult, and has used it in some of its newest weapons, according to a 2021 US Energetics Technology Centre study commissioned by the Pentagon.
  • China
  • Security

America's Approach to Addiction Has Gone Off the Rails

AI Summary. The article argues that addiction to fentanyl and new forms of methamphetamine so impairs users' capacity to choose treatment that involuntary time away from the drugs is needed to restore their agency. It proposes drug courts and reimagined jails, alongside strong support for voluntary treatment, as foundations of addiction policy.

Sam Quinon The Atlantic
Date Posted:
June 2, 2023
Is Database:
Database

In light of synthetic drugs like fentanyl and methamphetamine flooding the US, @samquinones7 argues that treatment of drug users isn’t enough, and we need to use arrest and the threat of incarceration to break the hold such drugs have on their users.

Should addiction policy include involuntary treatment to restore users' agency?

Core argument: The author argues that people addicted to fentanyl or the new methamphetamine are not meaningfully free to choose treatment or any path out of addiction, and that time away from these drugs can help them regain agency.

Taking away a person’s freedom is never something to be done lightly. But once addicted to fentanyl or the new meth, many users are not “free” to choose treatment—or any path out of addiction—in any meaningful way. Time away from these drugs, I believe, can help them regain their agency. In an era of rampant fentanyl and meth use, drug courts and a reimagined jail—alongside robust support for voluntary treatment—should be foundations for that revival. An arrest can be an act of compassion when the odds are that, outside, meth will drive a user mad, and fentanyl will kill him.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The author argues that people addicted to fentanyl or the new methamphetamine are not meaningfully free to choose treatment or any path out of addiction, and that time away from these drugs can help them regain agency.
  2. The author proposes drug courts and a reimagined jail, alongside robust support for voluntary treatment, as foundations for reviving America's approach to addiction.
  3. The author contends an arrest can be an act of compassion when the odds outside are that methamphetamine will drive a user mad and fentanyl will kill him.
  • Poverty/Crime
  • Workforce

Monday, June 5, 2023

Top Talent, Elite Colleges, and Migration: Evidence from the Indian Institutes of Technology

AI Summary. Among top scorers on India's Joint Entrance Exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology, 62% of the top 100 and 36% of the top 1,000 migrated abroad within eight years, primarily to the U.S. for graduate school. The authors argue elite schools shape migration by signaling ability and providing access to networks.

Prithwiraj Choudhury, Ina Ganguli and Patrick Gaulé National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

36% of the top 1,000 scorers on the Indian Institutes of Technology entrance exam move overseas after graduation, and 62% of the top 100 scorers migrate. Of top-scoring graduates who emigrated, 65% came to the US. @prithwic @inaganguli

How do elite colleges shape migration of top-scoring students abroad?

Core argument: Among the top 100 scorers on India's Joint Entrance Exam, 62% migrated abroad, primarily to the U.S. for graduate school, compared with 36% of the top 1,000 scorers.

We document a salient correlation between an individual’s score on the Joint Entrance Exam and migration up to eight years later among the top exam takers. Among the top 100 scorers, for instance, 62% have migrated abroad, primarily to the U.S. and for graduate school. Among the top 1,000 scorers, 36% have migrated abroad, which is still sizeable but much lower. Our results suggest that elite schools play a key role in shaping migration outcomes, both in terms of the overall propensity and the particular migration destination. Our evidence supports the view of elite education as mainly signaling a potential migrant’s ability or quality of their human capital, and providing access to valuable networks. U.S. graduate programs—a key pathway for migration—are especially keen to recruit the best and brightest. However, to identify the best and brightest, they must rely on external information and signals, and elite home universities may provide these.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Among the top 100 scorers on India's Joint Entrance Exam, 62% migrated abroad, primarily to the U.S. for graduate school, compared with 36% of the top 1,000 scorers.
  2. A correlation appears between Joint Entrance Exam scores and migration up to eight years later, and the findings suggest elite schools shape both the propensity to migrate and the destination chosen.
  3. The evidence supports the view that elite education mainly signals a potential migrant's ability or human capital quality and provides access to networks, with U.S. graduate programs relying on such external signals to recruit.
  • Education
    • College
    • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Immigration

China Set to Account for Less Than Half of US’s Low-Cost Imports from Asia

AI Summary. An annual reshoring index from management consulting firm Kearney finds China's share of US manufactured imports from low-cost Asian countries fell to 50.7% from nearly 70% a decade earlier, with one of the report's authors projecting it will drop below 50%. US efforts to reduce reliance on China and price-sensitive buyers are shifting trade to lower-cost Asian alternatives.

Primrose Riordan, Chan Ho-him, Andy Lin, and Joe Leahy Financial Times
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

For the first time in a decade China will account for less than half of US low-cost imports, according to new research from Kearney.

Is China's share of US low-cost Asian imports falling?

Core argument: Chinese goods made up 50.7% of US manufactured imports from Asian countries last year, down from nearly 70% in 2013, according to the Kearney Reshoring Index, which is based on US trade data.

According to an annual reshoring index from Kearney, the Chicago-based management consulting firm, US efforts to reduce reliance on China, as well as price-sensitive American buyers, are driving trade towards lower-cost alternatives in Asia. “By the end of 2023, China’s portion of US imports” from low-cost Asian countries, which excludes Japan and South Korea, “will definitely have dropped below 50%”, said Patrick Van den Bossche, one of the report’s authors. The US and China are each other’s largest respective trading partners. Last year, Chinese goods made up 50.7% of US manufactured imports from Asian countries, according to the Kearney Reshoring Index, which is based on US trade data. That was down from nearly 70% in 2013.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Chinese goods made up 50.7% of US manufactured imports from Asian countries last year, down from nearly 70% in 2013, according to the Kearney Reshoring Index, which is based on US trade data.
  2. Patrick Van den Bossche, a co-author of Kearney's annual reshoring index, said China's share of US imports from low-cost Asian countries, excluding Japan and South Korea, will have dropped below 50% by the end of 2023.
  3. Kearney attributes the shift toward lower-cost Asian alternatives to US efforts to reduce reliance on China and to price-sensitive American buyers, while the US and China remain each other's largest trading partners.

Related Articles:

  • Sester On Kearney Reshoring Index — US imports from Southeast Asia have risen, but China's reported exports to the US exceed recorded US imports from China by about 10%, reflecting incentives to shift final assembly and to avoid tariffs. Trade data cannot show how much Chinese content is embedded in rising Southeast Asian imports.
  • Trade (not deficits)
  • GDP

Setser On Kearney Reshoring Index

AI Summary. US imports from Southeast Asia have risen, but China's reported exports to the US exceed recorded US imports from China by about 10%, reflecting incentives to shift final assembly and to avoid tariffs. Trade data cannot show how much Chinese content is embedded in rising Southeast Asian imports.

Brad Setser @Brad_Setser
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

.@Brad_Setser notes that the fall in the US dependence on China has been overstated for two reasons: 1) US import data fail to reflect the value of small shipments from China, and 2) many US imports from SE Asia likely embed a lot of Chinese components.

Do rising Southeast Asian imports show less US dependence on China?

Core argument: China's reported exports to the US exceed recorded US imports from China by about 10%, which Setser attributes in part to tariff-avoidance incentives, including de minimis small-value shipments.

US imports from southeast Asia are clearly up. But how much has that really reduced US dependence on China? The Trump tariffs clearly had two effects a) they created an incentive to move final assembly to SE Asia; b) they created an incentive to avoid the US tariff (small value shipments/ de minimus) being the most obvious case. As a result, China's reported exports to the US now exceed recorded US imports from China by a significant margin (about 10%). China has lost a bit of market share over the last 12 months, so there is some evidence of a shift in the location of final assembly. In the Chinese data though the shift comes only after a rise in China's market share during the pandemic (lots of imported electronics). The bigger question (unanswerable by the trade data) is how much Chinese content is embedded in the United States rising imports from SE Asia? The US bilateral deficit with China was exaggerated in the past because China relied on a lot of imported chips and high-end components from Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The same argument now applies to SE Asia. Chinese components don't just appear in the data for China.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China's reported exports to the US exceed recorded US imports from China by about 10%, which Setser attributes in part to tariff-avoidance incentives, including de minimis small-value shipments.
  2. Setser argues the Trump tariffs created an incentive to move final assembly to Southeast Asia, and China has lost some market share, though in Chinese data that decline follows a pandemic-era rise tied to imported electronics.
  3. Trade data cannot show how much Chinese content is embedded in rising US imports from Southeast Asia, much as the US bilateral deficit with China was exaggerated by China's reliance on imported chips and high-end components from Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.

Related Articles:

  • China Set to Account for Less Than Half of US’s Low-Cost Imports from Asia — An annual reshoring index from management consulting firm Kearney finds China's share of US manufactured imports from low-cost Asian countries fell to 50.7% from nearly 70% a decade earlier, with one of the report's authors projecting it will drop below 50%. US efforts to reduce reliance on China and price-sensitive buyers are shifting trade to lower-cost Asian alternatives.
  • Trade (not deficits)
  • GDP

Zooming and the Future of Cities

AI Summary. Card-swipe data indicate that only about half the office space in major U.S. cities is in use, with little sign of a return to pre-pandemic levels. Among the biggest beneficiaries of remote work may be previously declining small cities near larger metros, which stay affordable because housing is durable and long-lasting.

Paul Krugman Krugman Wonks Out
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

.@paulkrugman argues that small cities with cheap housing and easy access to major cities like New York will be beneficiaries of new work patterns

Does remote work benefit declining small cities near big metros?

Core argument: Card-swipe evidence suggests only about half the office space in major U.S. cities is in use, with little sign of a return to pre-pandemic occupancy.

Evidence from card swipes suggests that only about half the office space in major U.S. cities is currently in use, with little indication of a return to pre-pandemic norms. Some of the biggest beneficiaries of the change in how and where we work may be heretofore declining small cities that aren’t too far from bigger metros. One of my favorite papers in urban economics was an old piece, also co-written by Ed Glaeser, this time with Joseph Gyourko, which pointed out that even cities that have lost much of their original economic rationale tend to decline only slowly. Why? Because housing is durable, and declining old cities offer would-be residents a cheap place to live. Historically, these declining cities tended to attract less educated workers, often immigrants.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Card-swipe evidence suggests only about half the office space in major U.S. cities is in use, with little sign of a return to pre-pandemic occupancy.
  2. Among the biggest beneficiaries of the shift in how and where people work may be previously declining small cities located not too far from larger metros.
  3. Ed Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko argued that cities losing their original economic rationale decline only slowly because durable housing makes them cheap places to live, historically attracting less educated workers and immigrants.
  • Housing
  • GDP

US Banks Prepare for Losses in Rush for Commercial Property Exit

AI Summary. Some US banks are selling commercial real estate loans at a discount to face value even when borrowers are current on payments, in an effort to reduce exposure to the commercial property market. Recent sales include a $2.6bn block of construction loans sold at 92 cents on the dollar.

Stephen Gandel, Joshua Chaffin, Eric Platt, and Joshua Oliver Financial Times
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

Some American banks are selling real estate loans at a loss to reduce their expose to commercial real estate markets.

Some American banks are selling real estate loans at a loss to reduce their expose to commercial real estate markets.

Are US banks accepting losses to shed commercial property loans?

Core argument: PacWest sold $2.6bn of construction loans at a loss, with Kennedy-Wilson agreeing to pay $2.4bn, or 92 cents on the dollar, and PacWest shares surged nearly 20% after the announcement.

Some US banks are preparing to sell off property loans at a discount even when borrowers are up to date on repayments, a sign of their determination to reduce exposure to the teetering commercial real estate market. HSBC USA is in the process of selling off hundreds of millions of dollars of commercial real estate loans, potentially at a discount, as part of an effort to wind down direct lending to US property developers, according to three people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, PacWest last month sold $2.6bn of construction loans at a loss. Real estate investment group Kennedy-Wilson, for instance, agreed to pay $2.4bn, or 92 cents on the dollar, for the block of PacWest loans that had an aggregate principal value of $2.6bn. Shares of PacWest surged nearly 20% after it announced the transaction. According to two of the people briefed on the HSBC sales process, the loans are fetching bids that would price the loans in the mid-90s as a percentage of their face value — meaning the bank would have to take a loss of as much as 5%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PacWest sold $2.6bn of construction loans at a loss, with Kennedy-Wilson agreeing to pay $2.4bn, or 92 cents on the dollar, and PacWest shares surged nearly 20% after the announcement.
  2. HSBC USA is selling hundreds of millions of dollars of commercial real estate loans, potentially at a discount, as part of winding down direct lending to US property developers, according to three people familiar with the matter.
  3. Bids on the HSBC loans would price them in the mid-90s as a percentage of face value, meaning a loss of as much as 5%, according to two people briefed on the sales process.
  • Financial Markets
  • GDP

Work Requirements and the Lost Lessons of 1996

AI Summary. New York City's cash welfare rolls fell from 1.1m to about 360,000 even as its population grew, after shifting from signing people up for benefits to helping them into work; labor-force participation among never-married single mothers rose from roughly 50% to 65-70%. Polling shows about two-thirds of Americans back work requirements.

Kate Bachelder Odell and Robert Doar Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

.@AEI @RobertDoar notes that 2/3 of American’s support work requirements and argues that “Work matters, and when paired with public assistance it’s a powerful ‘path out of poverty.’”

.@AEI @RobertDoar notes that 2/3 of American’s support work requirements and argues that “Work matters, and when paired with...

Do work requirements reduce welfare rolls and raise labor-force participation?

Core argument: Robert Doar says New York City's cash welfare rolls fell from 1.1 million people in 1996 to roughly 360,000 even as the city's population grew, after the system shifted from signing people up for benefits to helping them get into work.

Mr. Doar is unequivocal: Work matters, and when paired with public assistance it’s a powerful “path out of poverty,” In 1996, Mr. Doar says, “the number of men, women and children on cash welfare was 1.1 million, in [New York] of less than eight million.” Yet … that figure plummeted to about 360,000, even as the city’s population grew. New York “transformed a system that was focused on signing people up for benefits to a system that help them get into work.” “The labor-force participation rate in New York City and around the country went from roughly 50% for never-married single mothers to roughly 65% or 70%.” A May opinion poll showed roughly two-thirds of Americans, including half of Democrats, support work requirements on food stamps and Medicaid. In April, an advisory ballot referendum asked Wisconsin voters whether they support work requirements on welfare. It won with nearly 80% of the vote. A May opinion poll showed roughly two-thirds of Americans, including half of Democrats, support work requirements on food stamps and Medicaid.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Robert Doar says New York City's cash welfare rolls fell from 1.1 million people in 1996 to roughly 360,000 even as the city's population grew, after the system shifted from signing people up for benefits to helping them get into work.
  2. Labor-force participation among never-married single mothers rose from roughly 50% to roughly 65% or 70% in New York City and around the country, according to Robert Doar, who argues work paired with public assistance is a path out of poverty.
  3. A May opinion poll found roughly two-thirds of Americans, including half of Democrats, support work requirements on food stamps and Medicaid, and an April advisory referendum in Wisconsin on welfare work requirements won with nearly 80% of the vote.
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Politics
  • Workforce
    • Poverty/Crime

China’s Auto Export Wave Echoes Japan's in the ’70s

AI Summary. The shift from petroleum-fueled internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles moves resource leverage from Persian Gulf oil producers to critical minerals, with China holding more than half of global processing capacity for lithium, cobalt, and graphite and about a third for nickel. Chinese companies have spent $4.5bn acquiring stakes in nearly 20 lithium mines, mostly in Latin America and Africa.

Niall Ferguson Bloomberg
Date Posted:
June 5, 2023

.@nfergus argues that the end of the “ICE Age” (internal combustion engine) and the start of “EV Era” will reshape geopolitics and mark the return of the auto trade wars of the 1980s as cheap Chinese EV increasingly come to Western markets.

Does the shift to electric vehicles move resource leverage to China?

Core argument: China accounts for more than half of global processing capacity for three of the critical minerals used in EV batteries — lithium, cobalt, and graphite — and around a third for nickel.

Motivated by a desire to save the planet, we are ending the ICE Age and embarking on the EV Era. By itself, I doubt this new transportation revolution will much affect the Earth’s climate. But it will certainly unleash new and surprising trade conflicts, unexpected social and political changes, and novel geopolitical shifts. ICEs run on petroleum, and the swing producers with the power to set the oil price still reside in the Persian Gulf region. EV batteries, by contrast, require a combination of critical minerals, particularly lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite. China accounts for more than half the global processing capacity for three of those. (In the case of nickel, it is only around a third.) Moreover, China is scrambling to increase its control of lithium, nickel, and cobalt mining. (It already dominates graphite mining.) In the past two years, according to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese companies have spent $4.5 billion acquiring stakes in nearly 20 lithium mines, most of them in Latin America (for example, Bolivia) or Africa (Zimbabwe).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China accounts for more than half of global processing capacity for three of the critical minerals used in EV batteries — lithium, cobalt, and graphite — and around a third for nickel.
  2. Chinese companies spent $4.5 billion over the past two years acquiring stakes in nearly 20 lithium mines, most in Latin America or Africa, including Bolivia and Zimbabwe, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  3. The author argues the shift from internal combustion engines to EVs will unleash trade conflicts, social and political changes, and geopolitical shifts while doing little to affect the Earth's climate.

Related Articles:

  • Can Volkswagen Win Back China? — Volkswagen relies on China for at least half its annual profits, but its flagship VW brand has been displaced as China's best-selling car by BYD and holds just 2% of the electric vehicle market, ninth place, versus nearly 40% for BYD and over 10% for Tesla.
  • Your Next Electric Vehicle Could Be Made in China — China has overtaken Japan as the world's largest auto exporter, shipping 1.07m vehicles in a quarter, a 58% year-over-year increase, versus Japan's 950,000. China is also the largest exporter of electric vehicles, accounting for about 35% of global electric vehicle exports, up from 25% two years earlier.
  • Energy


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