Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

AI Summary. Core consumer prices rose at a 5.0% annual rate over one month and 5.5% over 12 months, lifted by a rebound in goods prices including a 4.4% rise in used cars and trucks. Shelter cost growth slowed, and a "supercore" measure excluding food, energy, shelter and used cars rose at 1.9%.

Jason Furman @Jasonfurman
Date Posted:

April’s core CPI of 5.0% annualized remains well above target. @jasonfurman

Are rebounding goods prices keeping core inflation elevated as shelter costs slow?

Core argument: Core CPI rose at a 5.0% annualized rate in April, with 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month rates of 5.1%, 4.8%, and 5.5%, according to Jason Furman.

Inflation coming in high again, despite a continued slowdown in shelter growth but because of a (temporary?) rebound in goods prices. The core CPI at an annual rate: 1 month: 5.0% 3 months: 5.1% 6 months: 4.8% 12 months: 5.5%. The favorable interpretation of the April data is that it was temporarily elevated due to an unusually large increase in goods prices--which had been flat or negative recently. A lot of this was a 4.4% (not annualized) increase in used cars and trucks. Housing looms large in the CPI. Shelter cost growth slowed again this month, although that was because hotel prices fell 3.4%. But even excluding that rent and owner's equivalent rent were slower than they generally have been. But more slowing likely ahead. "Supercore", which excludes food, energy, shelter and used cars, was up at only a 1.9% annual rate in April. That is the slowest rate since the takeoff of inflation in early 2021.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Core CPI rose at a 5.0% annualized rate in April, with 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month rates of 5.1%, 4.8%, and 5.5%, according to Jason Furman.
  2. Furman describes the favorable reading of April data as temporary elevation from an unusually large rise in goods prices, including a 4.4% not-annualized increase in used cars and trucks, after goods had been flat or negative.
  3. "Supercore" CPI, excluding food, energy, shelter, and used cars, rose at a 1.9% annual rate in April, the slowest since inflation took off in early 2021, while shelter growth slowed as hotel prices fell 3.4%.

AI Summary. Productivity measured as GDP per worker was flat economy-wide in one year, with output up 6% and payrolls up 5%, then fell as GDP growth slowed to 1% while payrolls rose 3%. Weak goods-producing productivity was broad based across mining, construction, and manufacturing, with output down 3% against payrolls up 4%.

Thomas Klitgaard and Ethan Nourbash Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Date Posted:

Productivity declined in 2022. This was driven by the goods-producing sector, where output was up 1% versus payrolls increasing 3%. @NewYorkFed

How did output per worker shift across sectors?

Core argument: Productivity, measured as GDP per worker, was flat for the whole economy in 2021 as output rose 6% over four quarters while payrolls rose 5%.

Productivity, measured here by GDP per worker, can be used to evaluate how well employment tracked output during the pandemic period. Productivity was flat for the whole economy in 2021 as both payrolls and the economy grew at fast rates. Specifically, output rose 6% over the four quarters and payrolls rose 5% over the same period. By sector, services output was up 8% versus payrolls up 6% (higher productivity), goods-producing output was up 1% versus payrolls increasing 3% (lower), and government output was up 1% versus payrolls up 2% (lower). In 2022, overall productivity finally fell as GDP growth slowed to 1% while payrolls rose 3%. By sector, services GDP grew 2% versus payrolls up 4%, goods-producing output fell 3% versus payrolls up 4%, and government output and payrolls both grew 1%.  The depressed productivity for the goods-producing sectors was broad based, with low readings for mining, construction, and manufacturing.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Productivity, measured as GDP per worker, was flat for the whole economy in 2021 as output rose 6% over four quarters while payrolls rose 5%.
  2. Overall productivity fell in 2022 as GDP growth slowed to 1% while payrolls rose 3%, with goods-producing output down 3% against a 4% payroll gain.
  3. Depressed goods-producing productivity was broad based, with low readings for mining, construction, and manufacturing, while services GDP grew 2% versus payrolls up 4%.

AI Summary. The Federal Reserve's survey of senior loan officers shows bank lending standards and loan demand indicators at or near 2008 levels, and because the survey covers only large banks, credit conditions at small and medium-sized banks are likely tightening even more.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

In a Fed survey of large bank loan officers completed after the SVB collapse but prior to First Republic finds lending standards have tightened to 2008 levels. Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal

Are bank credit conditions as tight as in 2008?

Core argument: Across all indicators of loan supply and loan demand, the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey shows bank credit conditions at or close to 2008 levels, based on banks' reported tightening of lending standards for firms and households.

The survey asks banks if they have tightened lending standards for firms and households relative to last quarter, and across all indicators for demand for loans and supply of loans, we are now at or close to 2008 levels. In addition, the first sentence in the notes to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that it only covers large banks out of the roughly 4,000 banks in the US, so credit conditions in small and medium-sized banks are likely tightening even more than seen in the charts below. The bottom line for markets is that with inflation still at 5%, well above the FOMC’s 2% inflation target, and the Fed not cutting rates anytime soon, credit conditions will continue to tighten, and as a result, a recession is coming that could be deeper or longer than the consensus currently expects.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Across all indicators of loan supply and loan demand, the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey shows bank credit conditions at or close to 2008 levels, based on banks' reported tightening of lending standards for firms and households.
  2. The Senior Loan Officer Survey covers only large banks out of roughly 4,000 US banks, and credit conditions at small and medium-sized banks are likely tightening more than the survey shows.
  3. With inflation at 5% against the FOMC's 2% target and the Fed not cutting rates soon, credit conditions will continue to tighten and a recession is coming that could be deeper or longer than consensus expects.

AI Summary. Insuring US Treasuries against default has become more expensive than insuring bonds of Greece, Mexico and Brazil, countries that have defaulted multiple times and carry far lower credit ratings. One-year euro-denominated US credit default swaps traded at 166 basis points, above levels seen in earlier debt-ceiling standoffs.

Sujata Rao-Coverley and Denitsa Tsekova Bloomberg
Date Posted:

American CDS spreads are currently more expensive than insurance against a Mexican or Greek default. @markets.

Is default insurance on US debt costing more than lower-rated countries?

Core argument: One-year euro-denominated US credit default swaps traded at 166 basis points Wednesday, near a record high and above levels seen during the 2011 and 2013 debt-ceiling standoffs.

Mounting investor anxiety about the prospect of a first-ever US default has made it more expensive to insure Treasuries than the bonds of — among others — Greece, Mexico and Brazil, which have defaulted multiple times and have credit ratings many rungs below that of the US’s AAA. The imbroglio has fueled a surge in demand for euro-denominated US credit default swaps, the most actively traded. These contracts against a default over the next year traded at 166 basis points Wednesday, near a record high and surpassing the levels during previous debt-ceiling standoffs in 2011 and 2013. The trade has taken off due to a derivatives market quirk that will allow holders to reap handsome returns in the event of default. Their payoff will equal the difference between the market value and par value of the underlying asset, an attractive proposition when long-dated Treasury bonds are trading particularly cheap. The potential payout could exceed 2,400%, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. One-year euro-denominated US credit default swaps traded at 166 basis points Wednesday, near a record high and above levels seen during the 2011 and 2013 debt-ceiling standoffs.
  2. Insuring Treasuries against default costs more than insuring the bonds of Greece, Mexico and Brazil, which have defaulted multiple times and carry credit ratings many rungs below the US's AAA.
  3. A derivatives market quirk pays credit default swap holders the difference between the market value and par value of the underlying asset, a payout that could exceed 2,400% with long-dated Treasuries trading cheap, according to Bloomberg calculations.

AI Summary. Wendy's is automating drive-through ordering with an artificial-intelligence chatbot built on natural-language software from Google and trained to understand the many ways customers order off the menu.

Angus Loten Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

The fast food chain Wendy’s is automating its drive-through service with an AI powered chatbot using natural-language software developed by Google.

The fast food chain Wendy’s is automating its drive-through service with an AI powered chatbot using natural-language...

Can an AI chatbot take fast-food drive-through orders?

Core argument: Wendy's is automating drive-through order taking with an AI chatbot built on natural-language software developed by Google and trained to understand the many ways customers order off the menu.

Wendy’s is automating its drive-through service using an artificial-intelligence chatbot powered by natural-language software developed by Google and trained to understand the myriad ways customers order off the menu. The Dublin, Ohio-based fast-food chain’s chatbot will be officially rolled out in June at a company-owned restaurant in Columbus, Ohio, Wendy’s said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Wendy's is automating drive-through order taking with an AI chatbot built on natural-language software developed by Google and trained to understand the many ways customers order off the menu.
  2. Wendy's said the chatbot will be officially rolled out in June at a company-owned restaurant in Columbus, Ohio.

AI Summary. Goldman Sachs argues that the combination of labour cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labour productivity boom, as followed the electric motor and personal computer. It estimates generative AI might raise annual US labour productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points, with larger gains in high-income countries.

Martin Wolf Financial Times
Date Posted:

Citing a Goldman Sachs research note, @martinwolf_ argues that AI diffusion is likely to be associated with an increase in productivity.

Will generative AI produce a labor productivity boom?

Core argument: Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI might raise annual US labour productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points, with the surge larger in high-income countries than in developing ones.

An analysis by Goldman Sachs argues that the “combination of significant labour cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labour productivity boom”. This would be similar to what ultimately followed the emergence of the electric motor and personal computer. The study estimates that generative AI, in particular, might raise annual growth of labour productivity in the US by 1.5 percentage points. The surge would be bigger in high-income countries than developing ones, though timing is uncertain.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI might raise annual US labour productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points, with the surge larger in high-income countries than in developing ones.
  2. Goldman Sachs argues that the combination of significant labour cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labour productivity boom.
  3. Goldman Sachs likens the potential productivity boom to what ultimately followed the emergence of the electric motor and the personal computer, while noting that the timing remains uncertain.

AI Summary. Microsoft has agreed to buy fusion-generated electricity from startup Helion Energy in what is believed to be the first commercial fusion power agreement, even as many experts view fusion as decades away. Helion committed to begin producing fusion electricity within about five years and to supply at least 50 megawatts or pay penalties.

Jennifer Hiller Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Microsoft has signed a contract with Helion to buy at least 50 megawatts of electricity generated by fusion starting in 2028.

Microsoft has signed a contract with Helion to buy at least 50 megawatts of electricity generated by fusion starting in 2028.

Is commercial fusion power closer than experts believe?

Core argument: Microsoft agreed to buy fusion-generated electricity from startup Helion Energy within about five years, in what is believed to be the first commercial agreement for fusion power.

Many experts believe fusion power remains decades away. Microsoft thinks it could be just around the corner. In a deal that is believed to be the first commercial agreement for fusion power, the tech giant has agreed to purchase electricity from startup Helion Energy within about five years. Helion, which is backed by OpenAI founder Sam Altman, committed to start producing electricity through fusion by 2028 and target power generation for Microsoft of at least 50 megawatts after a year or pay financial penalties.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Microsoft agreed to buy fusion-generated electricity from startup Helion Energy within about five years, in what is believed to be the first commercial agreement for fusion power.
  2. Helion Energy committed to begin producing electricity through fusion by 2028 and to target at least 50 megawatts of generation for Microsoft after a year, or pay financial penalties.
  3. Many experts believe fusion power remains decades away, while Microsoft and Helion Energy, backed by OpenAI founder Sam Altman, expect it much sooner.

AI Summary. Physicists using the quantum computing company Quantinuum's H2 processor synthesized and manipulated non-abelian anyons, particles that retain records of their movement through space and time, in a novel phase of quantum matter. Because those records are nearly indestructible, researchers argue such particles could offer a promising platform for building error-tolerant quantum computers.

Charlie Wood Quanta Magazine
Date Posted:

Physicists have created objects that retain a memory of their past, a step towards “error-tolerant quantum computers.” @QuantaMagazine

Can particles that remember their paths enable error-tolerant quantum computers?

Core argument: Physicists working with Quantinuum used the company's newly unveiled H2 processor to synthesize and manipulate non-abelian anyons in a novel phase of quantum matter.

Physicists working with the company Quantinuum announced that they had used the company’s newly unveiled, next-generation H2 processor to synthesize and manipulate non-abelian anyons in a novel phase of quantum matter. Their work follows a preprint posted last fall in which researchers with Google celebrated the first clear intertwining of non-abelian objects, a proof of concept that information can be stored and manipulated in their shared memory. Together, the experiments flex the growing muscle of quantum devices while offering a potential glimpse into the future of computing: By maintaining nearly indestructible records of their journeys through space and time, non-abelian anyons could offer the most promising platform for building error-tolerant quantum computers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Physicists working with Quantinuum used the company's newly unveiled H2 processor to synthesize and manipulate non-abelian anyons in a novel phase of quantum matter.
  2. Researchers with Google reported in a preprint the first clear intertwining of non-abelian objects, a proof of concept that information can be stored and manipulated in their shared memory.
  3. By maintaining nearly indestructible records of their journeys through space and time, non-abelian anyons could offer the most promising platform for building error-tolerant quantum computers.

Thursday, May 11, 2023

AI Summary. Bank credit has not been a significant source of financing for consumer or business spending, apart from the temporary Paycheck Protection Program emergency loans, in contrast with pre-2007 cycles. Americans borrowed little relative to income compared with previous expansions, and household borrowing had already been retrenching with little impact on economic activity.

Matt Klein The Overshoot
Date Posted:

The post pandemic expansion was much less dependent on consumer and business borrowing than previous expansions. @M_C_Klein argues this should insulate the economy from tightening US bank credit standards.

Does bank credit still drive consumer and business spending?

Core argument: Bank credit, apart from the temporary Paycheck Protection Program emergency loans, has not been a significant source of financing for U.S. consumer or business spending, a contrast with pre-2007 cycles that should help insulate the real economy from banking-sector disruptions.

With the temporary exception of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) emergency loans, bank credit has not been a significant source of financing for either consumer or business spending. That is a notable contrast from pre-2007 cycles—and should help insulate the real economy from the disruptions in the banking sector. Despite the housing boomlet, Americans borrowed remarkably little over the past few years relative to their income, especially when compared to previous expansions—and only some of that borrowing came from banks. Moreover, household borrowing had already been retrenching in the second half of 2022 as mortgage rates normalized, with little impact on overall economic activity.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Bank credit, apart from the temporary Paycheck Protection Program emergency loans, has not been a significant source of financing for U.S. consumer or business spending, a contrast with pre-2007 cycles that should help insulate the real economy from banking-sector disruptions.
  2. Despite the housing boomlet, Americans borrowed little relative to their income in recent years compared with previous expansions, and only some of that borrowing came from banks.
  3. Household borrowing was already retrenching in the second half of 2022 as mortgage rates normalized, with little impact on overall economic activity.

AI Summary. The banking system's deposit funding declined considerably after monetary policy tightening began, with the most acute outflows concentrated among super-regional banks holding $50bn–$250bn in assets, while banks under $50bn were relatively stable and banks above $250bn received inflows. Banks replaced deposit outflows using alternative funding sources.

Stephan Luck, Matthew Plosser, and Josh Younger Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Date Posted:

In the aftermath of SVB collapse, bank deposit outflows have been concentrated in a relatively narrow segment of “super-regional” banks with assets between $50-$250B. @NewYorkFed

How did monetary tightening affect bank deposits across bank sizes?

Core argument: Deposit outflows during March 2023, following the run on SVB, were most acute at super-regional banks with $50 to $250 billion in total assets, while the banking system's deposit funding had already declined considerably since tightening began in March 2022.

The banking system has seen a considerable decline in deposit funding since the start of the current monetary policy tightening cycle in March 2022. The speed of deposit outflows increased during March 2023, following the run on SVB, with the most acute outflows concentrated in a relatively narrow segment of the banking system, super-regional banks (those with $50 to $250 billion in total assets). Notably, deposit funding amongst the cohort often referred to as community and smaller regional banks (that is, institutions with less than $50 billion in assets) were relatively stable by comparison. Large banks (those with more than $250 billion in assets), which had been subject to the largest deposit outflows before March 2023, received deposit inflows throughout March 2023. Throughout, banks were able to replace deposit outflows by making use of alternative funding sources.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Deposit outflows during March 2023, following the run on SVB, were most acute at super-regional banks with $50 to $250 billion in total assets, while the banking system's deposit funding had already declined considerably since tightening began in March 2022.
  2. Community and smaller regional banks, those with less than $50 billion in assets, held deposit funding relatively stable by comparison.
  3. Large banks with more than $250 billion in assets, which had been subject to the largest deposit outflows before March 2023, received deposit inflows throughout March 2023, and banks were able to replace deposit outflows with alternative funding sources.

AI Summary. Goldman Sachs now projects China's economy will not overtake America's until 2035 and will peak at only 14% larger, down from an earlier projection of surpassing the US in 2026 and being over 50% larger by mid-century. Capital Economics argues China will reach 90% of America's size in 2035 and then lose ground.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

China and the United States economies are likely to be near parity going forward. Goldman Sachs estimates at peak China will be 14% larger than the US whereas Capital Economics estimates China’s economy will peak at 90% of the US. @TheEconomist

Will China's economy overtake America's, and by how much?

Core argument: Goldman Sachs now projects China's GDP will overtake America's in 2035 and peak at only 14% larger, revising its 2011 forecast of a 2026 crossover and a lead of over 50% by mid-century.

In 2011 Goldman Sachs projected that China’s GDP would surpass America’s in 2026 and become over 50% larger by mid-century. No peak was in sight. At the end of last year, the bank revisited its calculations. It now thinks China’s economy will not overtake America’s until 2035 and at its high point will be only 14% bigger. Capital Economics, a research firm, argues that China’s economy will never be number one. It will reach 90% of America’s size in 2035 and then lose ground. Even if China’s economy does become the biggest in the world, its lead is likely to remain small. It is unlikely to establish an edge over America equivalent to the 40% lead America now enjoys over it. It also seems safe to say that China and America will remain in a position of near-parity for decades.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Goldman Sachs now projects China's GDP will overtake America's in 2035 and peak at only 14% larger, revising its 2011 forecast of a 2026 crossover and a lead of over 50% by mid-century.
  2. Capital Economics argues China's economy will never be the world's largest, reaching 90% of America's size in 2035 before losing ground.
  3. China is unlikely to establish an edge over America equivalent to the 40% lead America now holds, leaving the two economies near parity for decades.

AI Summary. New York office occupancy remains near 50% of pre-pandemic levels while the city drew 56m visitors last year, a shift the authors describe as a move from a city organized around work to one organized around leisure. They argue cities must replace single-use zoning with mixed-use, mixed-income neighborhoods to remain vibrant.

Edward Glaeser and Carlo Ratti New York Times
Date Posted:

Ed Glaser argues that New York needs to transition from “a city dedicated to productivity to one built around pleasure” by changing zoning to create mixed use neighborhoods that are less dependent on daily commuting crowds.

How should cities adapt as offices empty and visitors surge?

Core argument: New York's office occupancy stands at roughly 50% of prepandemic levels, with enough empty office space to fit 26 Empire State Buildings, harming landlords and the local economy.

New York is undergoing a metamorphosis from a city dedicated to productivity to one built around pleasure. Many office buildings still feel eerily empty, with occupancy around 50%of prepandemic levels, harming landlords and the local economy. But 56 million people visited New York last year, making Fifth Avenue in December feel as crowded as Ipanema Beach during Carnival. The economic future of the city that never sleeps depends on embracing this shift from vocation to recreation and ensuring that New Yorkers with a wide range of talents want to spend their nights downtown, even if they are spending their days on Zoom. We are witnessing the dawn of a new kind of urban area: the Playground City. To create a city vibrant enough to compete with the convenience of the internet, we need to end the era of single-use zoning and create mixed-use, mixed-income neighborhoods that bring libraries, offices, movie theaters, grocery stores, schools, parks, restaurants and bars closer together. We must reconfigure the city into an experience worth leaving the house for.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. New York's office occupancy stands at roughly 50% of prepandemic levels, with enough empty office space to fit 26 Empire State Buildings, harming landlords and the local economy.
  2. New York drew 56 million visitors last year, making Fifth Avenue in December feel as crowded as Ipanema Beach during Carnival.
  3. New York's economic future depends on ending single-use zoning and building mixed-use, mixed-income neighborhoods that bring libraries, offices, movie theaters, grocery stores, schools, parks, restaurants and bars closer together.

AI Summary. The authors calculate that the average student fell half a year behind in math and a third of a year behind in reading. Students in the poorest 10% of districts lost three-quarters of a year in math, more than double the decline in the richest districts, with reading declines half as large.

Tom Kane and Sean Reardon New York Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

From 2019-2022 students in the mean school district fell half a year behind in math and a third of a year behind in reading. The learning losses were more significant in poorer school districts.

How far behind are students, and did poorer districts lose more?

Core argument: The authors calculate that the average U.S. student was half a year behind in math and a third of a year behind in reading.

According to our calculations, the average student was half a year behind in math and a third of a year behind in reading. In 2019, the typical student in the poorest 10 percent of districts scored one and a half years behind the national average for his or her year – and almost four years behind students in the richest 10 percent of districts – in both math and reading. By 2022, the typical student in the poorest districts had lost three-quarters of a year in math, more than double the decline of students in the richest districts. The declines in reading scores were half as large as in math and were similarly much larger in poor districts than rich districts. The pandemic left students in low-income and predominantly minority communities even further behind their peers in richer, whiter districts than they were.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors calculate that the average U.S. student was half a year behind in math and a third of a year behind in reading.
  2. By 2022, the typical student in the poorest 10 percent of districts had lost three-quarters of a year in math, more than double the decline among students in the richest 10 percent of districts.
  3. In 2019, the typical student in the poorest 10 percent of districts scored one and a half years behind the national average and almost four years behind students in the richest 10 percent of districts in both math and reading.

AI Summary. Survey data show most U.S. teens share their parents' politics and religion: 81% of Republican or Republican-leaning parents had teens identifying the same way, as did 89% of Democratic or Democratic-leaning parents. Similar alignment held for religion, with 82% of Protestant parents, 81% of Catholic parents, and 86% of religiously unaffiliated parents having teens who identified likewise.

Alan Cooperman Pew Research Center
Date Posted:

Most American parents pass along both their religious beliefs and politics to their children. @pewresearch

Do most teens share their parents' politics and religion?

Core argument: 89% of Democratic or Democratic-leaning U.S. parents had teens who identified the same way, compared with 81% of Republican or Republican-leaning parents whose teens also identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

Roughly eight-in-ten parents who were Republican or leaned toward the Republican Party (81%) had teens who also identified as Republicans or leaned that way. And about nine-in-ten parents who were Democratic or leaned Democratic (89%) had teens who described themselves the same way. 82% of Protestant parents had teens who also identified as Protestant, 81% of Catholic parents had Catholic teens, and 86% of religiously unaffiliated parents – those who described themselves as atheist, agnostic or nothing in particular – had teens who were also “nones.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. 89% of Democratic or Democratic-leaning U.S. parents had teens who identified the same way, compared with 81% of Republican or Republican-leaning parents whose teens also identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.
  2. Among Protestant parents, 82% had teens who also identified as Protestant, and 81% of Catholic parents had Catholic teens.
  3. 86% of religiously unaffiliated parents — those describing themselves as atheist, agnostic or nothing in particular — had teens who were also "nones.".