Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Monday, May 8, 2023

AI Summary. The authors estimate that firms whose workforces are more exposed to being made more productive by generative AI tools outperformed less-exposed firms by over 40 basis points in daily excess equity returns in the two weeks after ChatGPT's public release. The outperformance was about 40 basis points daily in industry-neutral portfolios, indicating it is not solely an industry composition effect.

Andrea Eisfeldt, Gregor Schubert and Miao Ben Zhang National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:

A @NBERpubs study presents evidence on the market impact of LLMs. Firms with top quintile exposure to AI outperformed firms with lowest quintile exposure to AI by over 9% from Dec 1 to Mar 31. @andrea_eisfeldt @gregorschub @rainozhang

Do firms with AI-exposed workforces earn higher equity returns?

Core argument: Firms whose labor forces are more exposed to productivity gains from tools like ChatGPT outperformed less-exposed firms by over 40 basis points in daily excess returns during the two weeks after ChatGPT's public release.

We measure the impact of a major event in the advancement and dissemination of Generative AI technology, namely, the public release of ChatGPT, on equity returns at the firm level. Our key finding is that the arrival of ChatGPT had a sizable positive effect on the value of firms whose labor forces are more exposed to Generative AI and related Large Language Models (LLMs). Firms with higher exposure to the release of ChatGPT, as measured by the exposure of their labor force to being made more productive by tools like ChatGPT, outperform firms with lower exposures by over 40 basis points in daily excess returns during the two weeks following its release. Notably, these return differences are not only due to differences in labor force exposures across industries. Returns of firms with high labor force exposures also outperform firms with low exposures by about 40 basis points daily in industry-neutral portfolios.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Firms whose labor forces are more exposed to productivity gains from tools like ChatGPT outperformed less-exposed firms by over 40 basis points in daily excess returns during the two weeks after ChatGPT's public release.
  2. In industry-neutral portfolios, firms with high labor-force exposure to Generative AI outperformed low-exposure firms by about 40 basis points daily, indicating the return differences are not only due to cross-industry differences in exposure.
  3. The public release of ChatGPT had a sizable positive effect on the equity values of firms whose labor forces are more exposed to Generative AI and related large language models.

AI Summary. Banks with the fastest deposit growth over the prior five years saw the largest percentage losses in market capitalization, a pattern the author uses as a proxy for less "sticky" deposits. The author notes this correlation may reflect bank size and is not conclusive evidence.

Aswath Damodaran Musings on Markets
Date Posted:

.@AswathDamodaran suggests that the “stickiness” of a bank’s deposit base has strong explanatory power for overall resiliency. Banks with the highest deposit growth in the past five years (suggesting low stickiness) have tended to see big declines.

Do banks with the fastest deposit growth lose the most market value?

Core argument: Banks with the largest deposit growth over 2017–2022 — the author's proxy for the least sticky deposits — showed the biggest percentage losses in market capitalization.

It is banks with the least stick deposits that should have seen the biggest declines in market capitalization. My proxies for deposit stickiness are limited, given the data that I have access to, but I used deposit growth over the last five years (2017-2022) as my  measure of stickiness (with higher deposit growth translating into less stickiness): The results are surprisingly decisive, with the biggest market capitalization losses, in percentage terms, in banks that have seen the most growth in deposits in the last five years. To the extent that this is correlated with bank size (smaller banks should be more likely to see deposit growth), it is by no means conclusive evidence, but it is consistent with the argument that the stickiness of deposits is the key to unlocking this crisis.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Banks with the largest deposit growth over 2017–2022 — the author's proxy for the least sticky deposits — showed the biggest percentage losses in market capitalization.
  2. The author uses five-year deposit growth as a proxy for deposit stickiness, with higher growth taken to mean less sticky deposits, while noting the proxy is limited by available data.
  3. Because deposit growth may be correlated with bank size, with smaller banks more likely to see deposit growth, the author calls the evidence inconclusive though consistent with deposit stickiness being the key to the crisis.

AI Summary. Small banks account for 30% of banking-sector assets and 40% of lending, and face higher funding costs, lower asset prices from higher interest rates, and greater regulatory scrutiny. Tightening bank credit conditions are argued to impose a significant drag on the economy.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal notes the credit crunch will have a meaningful economic impact as small banks are responsible for 40% of lending.

Do pressures on small banks impose a significant drag on the economy?

Core argument: Small banks account for 30% of banking sector assets and 40% of lending, so the negative economic impact from the ongoing banking crisis is going to be significant.

Bank credit conditions are tightening, and the negative impact on the economy from the ongoing banking crisis is going to be significant because small banks account for 30% of assets in the banking sector and 40% of lending, and small banks are facing three headwinds from 1) higher funding costs, 2) lower asset prices because of higher interest rates, and 3) more regulatory scrutiny.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Small banks account for 30% of banking sector assets and 40% of lending, so the negative economic impact from the ongoing banking crisis is going to be significant.
  2. Small banks face three headwinds: higher funding costs, lower asset prices caused by higher interest rates, and more regulatory scrutiny.
  3. Bank credit conditions are tightening as the banking crisis continues.

AI Summary. The Bank for International Settlements reported that banks' cross-border claims fell by $1.4tn in a single quarter, slowing year-on-year growth to 6%, driven by lower bank credit and a drop in the market value of banks' derivatives. Dollar credit to emerging market and developing economies shrank by 4%.

BIS Staff Bank for International Settlements
Date Posted:

New @BIS_org data shows a contraction in dollar credit outside the US of at least $1.4T in Q4 of 2023.

Are banks' cross-border claims and dollar credit to emerging economies contracting?

Core argument: Banks' cross-border claims fell by $1.4 trillion in Q4 2022, slowing year-on-year growth to 6%, with lower bank credit and a drop in the market value of banks' derivatives and other residual instruments contributing to the decline.

Banks’ cross-border claims fell by $1.4 trillion in Q4 2022, slowing the year-on- year (yoy) growth rate to 6%. Both lower bank credit (i.e., loans and holdings of debt securities) and a drop in the market value of banks’ derivatives and other residual instruments contributed to the decline. Global cross-border bank credit (i.e., loans and holdings of debt securities) fell by $749 billion, or $400 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Euro-denominated credit declined by $231 billion after expanding earlier in the year. Cross-border bank credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) fell by $179 billion in Q4 2022 due to weaker dollar lending. Credit to the Asia-Pacific region contracted the most. The BIS global liquidity indicators (GLIs) show a large contraction in dollar credit to non-banks in EMDEs in Q4 2022. Dollar credit to EMDEs shrank by 4%, a rate last seen during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Banks' cross-border claims fell by $1.4 trillion in Q4 2022, slowing year-on-year growth to 6%, with lower bank credit and a drop in the market value of banks' derivatives and other residual instruments contributing to the decline.
  2. Global cross-border bank credit fell by $749 billion in Q4 2022, or $400 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, with euro-denominated credit declining by $231 billion after expanding earlier in the year.
  3. BIS global liquidity indicators show dollar credit to emerging market and developing economies shrank by 4% in Q4 2022, a rate last seen during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09, while cross-border bank credit to these economies fell by $179 billion.

AI Summary. The expiration of Title 42, a pandemic-era policy that allowed the U.S. government to swiftly expel citizens of several countries back to Mexico, is expected to bring tens of thousands of migrants to the border. The federal government expects as many as 13,000 migrants a day after the measure lapses, up from about 6,000 on a typical day.

Miriam Jordan and Michael Shear New York Times
Date Posted:

Brownsville, Laredo and El Paso have declared states of emergency in advance of President Biden’s decision to end Title 42 which allowed the Federal government to rapidly expel migrants who arrive illegally.

Brownsville, Laredo and El Paso have declared states of emergency in advance of President Biden’s decision to end...

Will the end of pandemic-era expulsion policy double daily border crossings?

Core argument: The federal government expects as many as 13,000 migrants to arrive daily immediately after Title 42 expires, up from about 6,000 on a typical day.

Barring a last-minute legal challenge, the Trump-era policy known as Title 42 will expire at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Thursday. It was put in place three years ago under the premise of preventing the spread of Covid-19. Border agents, state and local officials and even President Biden’s top aides in Washington are all bracing for the arrival of tens of thousands of migrants in the coming days. Already, people have begun crossing into U.S. border towns, anticipating the end of Title 42, which since 2020 has allowed the government to swiftly expel citizens of several countries back to Mexico. Three cities in Texas — Brownsville, Laredo and El Paso — have declared a state of emergency. No one is certain what will happen after Thursday. The federal government is expecting as many as 13,000 migrants each day immediately after the measure expires, up from about 6,000 on a typical day.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The federal government expects as many as 13,000 migrants to arrive daily immediately after Title 42 expires, up from about 6,000 on a typical day.
  2. Title 42, the Trump-era policy that since 2020 allowed the government to swiftly expel citizens of several countries back to Mexico on the premise of preventing Covid-19 spread, expires at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Thursday absent a last-minute legal challenge.
  3. The Texas cities of Brownsville, Laredo and El Paso have declared a state of emergency as border agents, state and local officials, and President Biden's top aides brace for the arrival of tens of thousands of migrants.

AI Summary. The American Redistricting Project projects that the 2030 census will shift US House seats and electoral votes toward lower-tax states, with California losing five seats, New York three, and Illinois two, while Texas and Florida each gain four. Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Delaware are each projected to gain one.

Michael Barone Washington Examiner
Date Posted:

Michael Barone argues the ongoing population shift to the sunbelt may give the GOP an edge in the electoral college by 2030 with states Trump won in 2016 and 2020 having 247 electoral votes, 23 shy of the 270 needed to win.

Will the next census shift House seats toward lower-tax states?

Core argument: The American Redistricting Project forecasts California losing five House seats in the 2030 census, after the state gained seats in every census from 1850 to 2000 and lost just one in 2020.

Republicans stand to make much bigger gains in the census in 2030. That’s the news from the American Redistricting Project’s forecast, based on extrapolations from 2022 Census Bureau estimates. ARP shows California, which gained seats in every census from 1850 to 2000 and lost just one seat in 2020, losing five seats in 2030. It shows New York losing three seats and Illinois two seats. It also shows large-scale flight to low-tax states, with Texas and Florida each projected to gain four House seats in 2030 and Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Delaware one each. In 2016, the balance between the consistently Trump and consistently Democratic electoral votes was precisely even, 232-232. The 2020 reapportionment would have changed that just slightly to 235-231, with the switching states dropping from 74 to 72 electoral votes.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The American Redistricting Project forecasts California losing five House seats in the 2030 census, after the state gained seats in every census from 1850 to 2000 and lost just one in 2020.
  2. The American Redistricting Project projects Texas and Florida each gaining four House seats in 2030, with Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Delaware gaining one each, and New York losing three and Illinois two.
  3. Consistently Trump and consistently Democratic electoral votes were evenly split 232–232 in 2016, and the 2020 reapportionment would have shifted that to 235–231, with the switching states falling from 74 to 72 electoral votes.

AI Summary. Average annual homeowners insurance costs about $1,900 nationwide but roughly $4,000 in New Orleans and $5,000 in Miami, with US premiums up 12% in a year and expected to keep rising. Insurers, facing about 20 billion-dollar disasters a year, are adopting pricing models that incorporate warming-climate costs and withdrawing from risky areas, shifting exposure to state-backed plans.

Benjamin Keys New York Times
Date Posted:

Benjamin Keys notes homeowners’ insurance premiums jumped 12% between 2021-2022 as the insurance industry responds to a sixfold increase in the number of large loss events since the 1980s. @wharton

Benjamin Keys notes homeowners’ insurance premiums jumped 12% between 2021-2022 as the insurance industry responds to a...

Are homeowners insurance premiums rising as insurers reprice climate risk?

Core argument: Average U.S. homeowners insurance costs $1,900 a year, rising to $4,000 in New Orleans and about $5,000 in Miami, according to Policygenius, an online insurance marketplace.

The average cost of homeowners coverage has reached $1,900 a year nationwide, but it’s $4,000 a year in New Orleans and about $5,000 a year in Miami, according to Policygenius, an online insurance marketplace. After recent years of paying out claims for about 20 disasters a year with damages of over $1 billion, a sixfold increase from the 1980s, insurers are getting serious about new pricing models that incorporate the costs of a warming climate. Across the United States, premiums jumped 12 percent from 2021 to 2022, according to Policygenius estimates, and they are expected to continue to rise.  Ten insurers have gone belly up in Florida in just the last two years. And in many cases, insurers are pulling back in risky areas, leaving state-backed insurance plans holding the bag.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Average U.S. homeowners insurance costs $1,900 a year, rising to $4,000 in New Orleans and about $5,000 in Miami, according to Policygenius, an online insurance marketplace.
  2. Insurers have paid claims for about 20 disasters a year with damages over $1 billion, a sixfold increase from the 1980s, and are pursuing new pricing models that incorporate the costs of a warming climate.
  3. U.S. premiums rose 12 percent from 2021 to 2022 by Policygenius estimates and are expected to keep rising, ten Florida insurers have failed in two years, and insurers pulling back from risky areas leave state-backed plans holding the bag.

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

AI Summary. Researchers estimate US households accumulated about $2.1tn in excess savings above the pre-pandemic trend before drawing them down, with cumulative drawdowns of $1.6tn leaving roughly $500bn remaining. If recent drawdown rates persist, the authors project remaining excess savings would continue supporting household spending for several more months.

Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Date Posted:

According to a new analysis from the @sffed there is still $500B of excess personal savings in the economy which could support consumer spending through Q4 of this year.

How much pandemic excess savings remains to support household spending?

Core argument: The authors estimate pandemic excess savings peaked at about $2.1 trillion in nominal terms through August 2021, after which aggregate personal savings fell below the pre-pandemic trend.

We estimate that accumulated excess savings, in nominal terms, totaled around $2.1 trillion through August 2021, when it peaked (green area). After August 2021, aggregate personal savings dipped below the pre-pandemic trend, signaling an overall drawdown of pandemic-related excess savings. The drawdown to on household savings was initially slow, averaging $34 billion per month from September to December 2021. It then accelerated, averaging about $100 billion per month throughout 2022, before moderating slightly to $85 billion per month in the first quarter of 2023. Cumulative drawdowns reached $1.6 trillion as of March 2023 (red area), implying there is approximately $500 billion of excess savings remaining in the aggregate economy. Should the recent pace of drawdowns persist—for example, at average rates from the past 3, 6, or 12 months—aggregate excess savings would likely continue to support household spending at least into the fourth quarter of 2023.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors estimate pandemic excess savings peaked at about $2.1 trillion in nominal terms through August 2021, after which aggregate personal savings fell below the pre-pandemic trend.
  2. Cumulative drawdowns of excess savings reached $1.6 trillion as of March 2023, leaving roughly $500 billion remaining in the aggregate economy, by the authors' estimates.
  3. Monthly drawdowns of household savings averaged $34 billion from September to December 2021, accelerated to about $100 billion per month throughout 2022, and moderated to $85 billion per month in the first quarter of 2023.

AI Summary. Total outstanding private credit was split about evenly between businesses, owing $19.9tn, and households, owing $19.0tn. Combined nonfinancial business and household debt grew more slowly than nominal GDP, producing a modest decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio driven by a larger drop in the household ratio than the business ratio.

Federal Reserve Staff Federal Reserve Board
Date Posted:

According to new Financial Stability Report the private sector is deleveraging relative to GDP.

Is private debt growing more slowly than the economy?

Core argument: Total outstanding private credit at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022 was split about evenly between businesses, owing $19.9 trillion, and households, owing $19.0 trillion.

At the end of Q4 2022 total outstanding private credit was split about evenly between businesses and households, with businesses owing $19.9 trillion and households owing $19.0 trillion. The combined total debt of nonfinancial businesses and households grew more slowly than nominal GDP since the November report, leading to a modest decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which moved back closer to the level that had prevailed for much of the decade before the pandemic. The decline in the overall ratio was driven by a larger decline in household debt-to-GDP ratio compared to the business debt-to- GDP ratio.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Total outstanding private credit at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022 was split about evenly between businesses, owing $19.9 trillion, and households, owing $19.0 trillion.
  2. Combined nonfinancial business and household debt grew more slowly than nominal GDP since the November report, producing a modest decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio back toward the level that prevailed for much of the decade before the pandemic.
  3. The decline in the overall debt-to-GDP ratio was driven by a larger decline in the household ratio than in the business ratio.

AI Summary. India's manufactured exports, while about a tenth of China's, exceeded those of all other emerging markets except Mexico and Vietnam, with electronics exports tripling to $23bn and India's share of global smartphone production projected to rise from 9% to 19%. Foreign direct investment averaged $42bn annually, double the level of under a decade earlier.

Philip Wen, Vibhuti Agarwal and Greg Ip Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Counterpoint Technology Market Research projects that India will manufacture 19% of the world’s smartphones this year, up from 9% in 2016. Overall Indian electronic exports have tripled since 2018 to $23B through March of this year.

Is India emerging as a manufacturing rival to China?

Core argument: India's manufactured exports were barely a tenth of China's in 2021 but exceeded those of all other emerging markets except Mexico and Vietnam, according to World Bank data.

Nonetheless, after decades of disappointment, India is making progress. Its manufactured exports were barely a tenth of China’s in 2021, but they exceeded all other emerging markets except Mexico’s and Vietnam’s, according to World Bank data. The biggest gains have been in electronics, where exports have tripled since 2018 to $23 billion in the year through March. India has gone from making 9% of the world’s smartphone handsets in 2016 to a projected 19% this year, according to Counterpoint Technology Market Research. Foreign direct investment into India averaged $42 billion annually from 2020 to 2022, a doubling in under a decade, according to central bank figures.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. India's manufactured exports were barely a tenth of China's in 2021 but exceeded those of all other emerging markets except Mexico and Vietnam, according to World Bank data.
  2. India's electronics exports tripled since 2018 to $23 billion in the year through March, and its share of world smartphone handset production is projected at 19% this year, up from 9% in 2016, according to Counterpoint Technology Market Research.
  3. Foreign direct investment into India averaged $42 billion annually from 2020 to 2022, a doubling in under a decade, according to central bank figures.

AI Summary. Volkswagen relies on China for at least half its annual profits, but its flagship VW brand has been displaced as China's best-selling car by BYD and holds just 2% of the electric vehicle market, ninth place, versus nearly 40% for BYD and over 10% for Tesla.

Edward White and Patricia Nilsson Financial Times
Date Posted:

China’s BYD has overtaken VW as the top-selling brand in China, and Chinese carmakers are outselling foreign rivals with 52% share of total sales 2023, up from 47% in 2022. @FT

Are foreign automakers losing their dominance in China's car market?

Core argument: Volkswagen depends on China for at least half of its annual profits, which reached €22bn last year, and sells more cars in China than any other company.

Volkswagen depends on China for at least half of its annual profits, which last year reached €22bn. While the sprawling German group, which today includes Porsche and Audi, sells more cars in China than any other company, its flagship VW brand was recently dethroned as the country’s best-selling car by BYD, the Shenzhen-based conglomerate backed by Warren Buffett. The German company is falling behind in the fast-growing electric car segment, where the VW brand sits in ninth place with a market share of just 2 per cent. BYD, which holds the top spot, has nearly 40 percent and Elon Musk’s Tesla, in second, has more than 10 per cent. Chinese makers of electric vehicles, which include plug-in hybrid and battery-powered cars, dominate in their own market and are also expanding aggressively overseas. China overtook Germany in auto exports in 2022 and is set to eclipse Japan as the world’s biggest car exporter this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Volkswagen depends on China for at least half of its annual profits, which reached €22bn last year, and sells more cars in China than any other company.
  2. Volkswagen's flagship VW brand ranks ninth in China's electric car market with a 2 per cent share, behind BYD with nearly 40 per cent and Tesla with more than 10 per cent, and BYD has dethroned it as the country's best-selling car.
  3. China overtook Germany in auto exports in 2022 and is set to eclipse Japan as the world's biggest car exporter this year, as Chinese electric-vehicle makers expand aggressively overseas.

AI Summary. Italy's government is favoring an exit from China's Belt and Road Initiative, though no final decision has been made, and its participation renews automatically unless Rome actively withdraws. Italy is the only Group of Seven country in the pact, which has funded $900bn in infrastructure projects globally.

Chiara Albanese and Alessandro Speciale Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Italy has signaled to the United States that it is likely to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative by the end of the year. @markets

Will Italy withdraw from China's Belt and Road Initiative?

Core argument: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Rome that her government is favoring an exit from China's Belt and Road Initiative, though a final decision has not been taken, according to people present at the talks.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reassured US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a meeting in Rome last week that while a final decision hasn’t been taken, her government is favoring an exit from its role in China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative, according to people present at the talks. Italy signed onto the infrastructure initiative in 2019 when Giuseppe Conte was premier, becoming the only Group of Seven country to become part of the deal. Participation will automatically renew in 2024 unless Rome actively exits the agreement. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has funded $900 billion in infrastructure projects globally.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Rome that her government is favoring an exit from China's Belt and Road Initiative, though a final decision has not been taken, according to people present at the talks.
  2. Italy signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019 under then-premier Giuseppe Conte, becoming the only Group of Seven country to join the deal.
  3. Italy's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, which has funded $900 billion in infrastructure projects globally, renews automatically in 2024 unless Rome actively exits the agreement.

AI Summary. Across 17 countries, suicide rates among girls aged 10-19 rose from an average of 3.0 per 100,000 people to 3.5, while the higher rate among boys, at 6.1 per 100,000, barely changed. Hospitalisations for self-harm among teenage girls climbed in all 11 countries with data, by an average of 143%, versus 49% for boys.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

In seventeen advanced economies the self-harm rate for teenage girls is up 143% since 2011. @TheEconomist

Are suicide and self-harm rates rising faster among teenage girls than boys?

Core argument: Across 17 countries, suicide rates among girls aged 10–19 rose from an average of 3.0 per 100,000 in 2003 to 3.5 per 100,000 in 2020, even as overall suicide rates fell.

We focused on suicides and hospitalisations for self-harm among 17 countries.  Both indicators look worrying for girls. Suicide rates have been falling overall, but girls—who kill themselves less often than other groups—are an exception. Among girls aged 10-19, suicide rates rose from an average of 3.0 per 100,000 people in 2003 to 3.5 per 100,000 in 2020. The rate among boys, although higher at 6.1 per 100,000 population, has barely changed. Girls engage in more non-fatal self-harm, like cutting, than boys do. This measure shows even steeper increases. For teenage girls, rates of hospitalisation for self-harm have climbed since 2010 in all 11 countries with available data, by an average of 143%. Boys’ average rise was 49%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Across 17 countries, suicide rates among girls aged 10–19 rose from an average of 3.0 per 100,000 in 2003 to 3.5 per 100,000 in 2020, even as overall suicide rates fell.
  2. Hospitalisation rates for self-harm among teenage girls climbed since 2010 in all 11 countries with available data, by an average of 143%, compared with an average rise of 49% for boys.
  3. Boys have a higher suicide rate than girls at 6.1 per 100,000, but that rate has barely changed, while girls engage in more non-fatal self-harm, such as cutting, than boys do.