Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Thursday, May 4, 2023

AI Summary. The authors estimate that US billionaires move to states without estate taxes as they age, with $80.7bn of Forbes 400 wealth escaping estate taxation as a result. They find that for the average state the added estate tax revenue exceeds forgone income tax revenue by 31%, with California a notable exception.

Enrico Moretti and Daniel J. Wilson American Economic Journal
Date Posted:
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Enrico Moretti and @wilson_daniel_j find 35% of billionaires leave states that have an estate tax. However, for the average state the additional revenues from an estate tax exceed the loss of revenues from forgone income taxes by 31 percent.

Do state estate taxes raise revenue despite billionaires moving away?

Core argument: The authors estimate that $80.7 billion of 2001 Forbes 400 wealth escaped estate taxation in subsequent years as billionaires moved away from estate tax states, with the response stronger as billionaires grew older.

We find that billionaires responded strongly to geographical differences in estate taxes by increasingly moving to states without estate taxes, especially as they grew older. Our estimated elasticity implies that $80.7 billion of 2001 Forbes 400 wealth escaped estate taxation in the subsequent years due to billionaires moving away from estate tax states. Yet despite the high elasticity of geographical location with respect to the estate tax, we find that for most states the benefit of additional revenue from the estate tax exceeds the cost of forgone income tax revenue by a significant margin. Adoption of an estate tax implies a one-time tax revenue gain for the state when a resident billionaire dies, but it also reduces its billionaire population and thus their flow of income tax revenue over remaining lifetimes. For the average state the benefit of additional revenue from the estate tax exceeds the cost of forgone income tax revenue by 31 percent. While the cost-benefit ratio varies substantially across states, most states that currently do not have estate taxes would experience revenue gains if they adopted estate taxes. California, which has the highest personal income top tax rate, is the main exception In California, the cost-benefit ratio is 1.45, indicating that if California adopted the estate tax on billionaires, the state would lose revenues by a significant margin. (Currently, California does not have an estate tax.) An earlier version of this research was cited in my chapter The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies in Oxford University Press's United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors estimate that $80.7 billion of 2001 Forbes 400 wealth escaped estate taxation in subsequent years as billionaires moved away from estate tax states, with the response stronger as billionaires grew older.
  2. For the average state, the authors find that added estate tax revenue exceeds the cost of forgone income tax revenue by 31 percent, implying most states without estate taxes would gain revenue by adopting them.
  3. California, which has the highest personal income top tax rate and no estate tax, is the main exception, with a cost-benefit ratio of 1.45 indicating it would lose revenues by adopting an estate tax on billionaires.

AI Summary. Greater Silicon Valley's share of US venture capital investment has fallen to 29.9% on a trailing-12-month basis, down from more than 40%, while the share going to the rest of the US outside the top four destinations has risen from 29.9% to 38.6%. This shift is occurring alongside an overall collapse in venture investment.

Justin Fox Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Silicon Valley’s share of venture investment has fallen from more than 40% in 2018-19 to 29.9% in the 12 months ending March. New York/LA/Boston have maintained share, while the rest of the US rose from 29.9% at the end of 2019 to 38.6%. @foxjust

Is venture capital investment spreading beyond Silicon Valley?

Core argument: Greater Silicon Valley took 29.9% of US venture investment over the 12 months ending in March, down from more than 40% in 2018 and 2019, measured on trailing-12-month data to smooth lumpy quarterly flows.

The quarterly investment flows are pretty lumpy, so to measure market share I’ll use trailing-12-month data. Over the 12 months ending in March, 29.9% of US venture investment flowed to Greater Silicon Valley — down from more than 40% in 2018 and 2019. The combined share of the next three VC destinations held more or less steady, while the share for the rest of the US rose from 29.9% at the end of 2019 to 38.6% as of March. It looks a bit like the “rise of the rest” egged on by venture capitalist and AOL co-founder Steve Case, only it’s happening amid an overall collapse in VC investment that’s probably not exactly what he had in mind.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Greater Silicon Valley took 29.9% of US venture investment over the 12 months ending in March, down from more than 40% in 2018 and 2019, measured on trailing-12-month data to smooth lumpy quarterly flows.
  2. The share of US venture investment going to regions outside the top four destinations rose from 29.9% at the end of 2019 to 38.6% as of March, while the next three destinations' combined share held roughly steady.
  3. The shift toward regions outside Silicon Valley resembles the "rise of the rest" promoted by venture capitalist and AOL co-founder Steve Case, but is occurring amid an overall collapse in venture capital investment.

AI Summary. California's population fell by 138,443 to 38.94 million, a third consecutive annual decline, according to state data. The main driver has been residents moving to other states such as Texas, Nevada, Idaho and Oregon, with net outmigration reaching a record 407,000 people and now spanning every education and income group.

Soumya Karlamangla New York Times
Date Posted:

California’s population shrank for the third year in a row with a net change of -138,443 in 2022 primarily driven by migration to other states like Texas, Nevada, Idaho and Oregon.

California’s population shrank for the third year in a row with a net change of -138,443 in 2022 primarily driven by...

Is outmigration driving California's population decline across all income groups?

Core argument: California's population fell by 138,443 in 2022 to 38.94 million, a third consecutive annual decline, according to state data.

It was big news a few years ago when, for the first time in more than a century, California’s population shrank. The small but still startling decline in 2020 was driven by Covid-19 deaths and falling immigration and birth rates, and it was something of a turning point for a huge state founded on rapid growth and long accustomed to it.  The state’s population dipped yet again in 2022, for the third year in a row. The number of people living in California fell by 138,443 last year, to 38.94 million, according to state data released this week. The primary driver of the state’s population loss has been Californians moving to other states, like Texas, Nevada, Idaho or Oregon, according to Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. Between July 2021 and July 2022, the net movement out of California was a record 407,000 people, he said. “In the past, California had continued to gain college graduates and people who had higher incomes, even as we were losing a very large number of less educated adults,” he said. “And then in the most recent couple years we’ve seen an outflow for every group.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. California's population fell by 138,443 in 2022 to 38.94 million, a third consecutive annual decline, according to state data.
  2. Net out-migration from California reached a record 407,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, with residents moving to states including Texas, Nevada, Idaho and Oregon, according to Hans Johnson of the Public Policy Institute of California.
  3. Hans Johnson said California previously gained college graduates and higher-income residents while losing large numbers of less educated adults, but in the most recent couple of years has seen an outflow for every group.

AI Summary. PacWest Bancorp said its core deposits have increased and confirmed it is in talks with several potential investors after a 60% drop in its share price, and Western Alliance Bancorp said it had seen no unusual deposit outflows while reaffirming guidance for higher quarterly deposits. Shares of regional lenders including Comerica and Zions fell nonetheless.

Emily Cadman, Abhishek Vishnoi and Matthew Monks Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Several regional bank stocks, most notably PacWest Bancorp, are still under stress.

Are regional bank shares falling despite reports of stable deposits?

Core argument: PacWest Bancorp said core deposits have increased since March and confirmed it is in talks with several potential investors, after a 60% stock rout made it the focal point of concern over US regional lenders.

PacWest Bancorp said core deposits have increased since March and confirmed it’s in talks with several potential investors, seeking to calm markets after a 60% stock rout that made it the new focal point of concern over the health of US regional lenders. Western Alliance Bancorp also said Wednesday that it had seen no unusual deposit outflows and reaffirmed its guidance deposits would rise quarter-over-quarter. Yet the stock slumped 18% in premarket trading, set to add to a 20% drop this week. Comerica Inc. and Zions Bancorp were also poised to extend steep weekly losses.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PacWest Bancorp said core deposits have increased since March and confirmed it is in talks with several potential investors, after a 60% stock rout made it the focal point of concern over US regional lenders.
  2. Western Alliance Bancorp said it had seen no unusual deposit outflows and reaffirmed guidance that deposits would rise quarter-over-quarter, yet its stock slumped 18% in premarket trading, set to add to a 20% drop this week.
  3. Comerica Inc. and Zions Bancorp were poised to extend steep weekly losses.

AI Summary. Small and medium-sized businesses have underperformed in the stock market, which suggests investors are worried about the impact of a credit crunch on middle-market companies.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:

Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal notes since the SVB collapse both the Russell Microcap Index and S&P Midcap 400 Index have underperformed the S&P suggesting investors think credit conditions could impact middle market firms.

Are investors worried a credit crunch will hurt smaller businesses?

Core argument: Small and medium-sized businesses have underperformed in the stock market since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Small and medium-sized businesses have been underperforming in the stock market since the SVB collapse, suggesting investors are worried about the negative impact of the ongoing credit crunch on middle market companies, see chart below.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Small and medium-sized businesses have underperformed in the stock market since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
  2. The underperformance of smaller companies' shares suggests investors are worried about the impact of the ongoing credit crunch on middle market firms.

AI Summary. An award-winning mathematician is leaving a US assistant professorship at the University of Pennsylvania for an appointment at Peking University's Beijing International Centre for Mathematical Research. Academics from Harvard, Princeton, and MIT report that at least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists switched their affiliation from American to Chinese institutions in 2021.

Holly Chik South China Morning Post
Date Posted:

A prominent mathematician is leaving the University of Pennsylvania for Peking University joining at least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists who returned home in 2021. @SCMPNews

A prominent mathematician is leaving the University of Pennsylvania for Peking University joining at least 1,400 US-based...

Are top Chinese scientists leaving US universities for Chinese institutions?

Core argument: At least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists switched their institutional affiliation from American to Chinese institutions in 2021, according to a joint report by academics from Harvard, Princeton, and MIT.

Sun Xin, now an assistant professor in mathematics at the University of Pennsylvania, will take up a new appointment at the Beijing International Centre for Mathematical Research at his alma mater, Peking University, although the university did not specify Sun’s new role. At least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists switched their affiliation in 2021 from American to Chinese institutions, according to a joint report by academics from Harvard and Princeton universities and MIT. Life scientist Yan Ning, for example, made headlines in China when she gave up a permanent post at Princeton. After five years in the US, the structural biologist returned to China last year to establish and serve as dean of the Shenzhen Medical Academy of Research and Translation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. At least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists switched their institutional affiliation from American to Chinese institutions in 2021, according to a joint report by academics from Harvard, Princeton, and MIT.
  2. Sun Xin, an assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Pennsylvania, will take up an appointment at the Beijing International Centre for Mathematical Research at his alma mater, Peking University, which did not specify his new role.
  3. Structural biologist Yan Ning gave up a permanent post at Princeton after five years in the US and returned to China to establish and serve as dean of the Shenzhen Medical Academy of Research and Translation.

AI Summary. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a Republican debt-ceiling bill would cut discretionary federal spending by $129bn in a fiscal year relative to current law, lowering federal spending to 23.1% of GDP and reducing economic growth by about half a percentage point. With unemployment at 3.5% and inflation near 5%, slower growth could help the Federal Reserve cool excess demand.

Greg Ip Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

.@greg_ip argues that the Republican debt ceiling proposal would provide fiscal support to the Fed’s monetary policy actions to get inflation back to target.

Can cutting federal spending help the central bank reduce inflation?

Core argument: The CBO estimates the Republican debt-ceiling bill would cut discretionary federal spending by $129 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2024, relative to current law, lowering federal spending to 23.1% of GDP.

Team Biden might have learned the wrong lesson from 2011. Back then, the unemployment rate was 9%. The Fed was holding interest rates near zero and buying bonds to stimulate growth and raise inflation, then running below its 2% target when food and energy are excluded. Today the problem is just the opposite. Unemployment, at 3.5%, is arguably too low given there are 64% more vacant jobs than job seekers. Inflation, at around 5%, is far above 2%. The Fed could use some help. The CBO says the Republican debt-ceiling bill would reduce discretionary federal spending by $129 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2024, relative to current law. (Discretionary spending must be reauthorized regularly, unlike mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare.) That would lower federal spending to 23.1% of GDP, enough to knock about half a percentage point off economic growth. Lower growth is normally a bad thing, but not when demand is too hot.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The CBO estimates the Republican debt-ceiling bill would cut discretionary federal spending by $129 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2024, relative to current law, lowering federal spending to 23.1% of GDP.
  2. That spending reduction would take about half a percentage point off economic growth, which the article argues is beneficial rather than harmful when demand runs too hot.
  3. Conditions differ from 2011, when unemployment was 9% and inflation excluding food and energy ran below the Fed's 2% target; unemployment is now 3.5% with 64% more vacant jobs than job seekers and inflation around 5%.

Friday, May 5, 2023

AI Summary. Job growth is slowing from roughly 325K to 225K per month, yet the share of prime-age adults employed sits 0.3pp above its pre-pandemic level, and both payroll and household employment exceed the Congressional Budget Office's pre-pandemic forecast despite a smaller population.

Jason Furman @jasonfurman
Date Posted:

.@jasonfurman notes “the employment-population ratio for prime age workers is 0.3pp above where it was prior to COVID,” and anticipates further rate hikes from the Fed.

Is the labor market still strong despite slowing job growth?

Core argument: Job growth is slowing from roughly 325K per month to 225K per month, according to Jason Furman's reading of the jobs report.

Job growth is slowing, from a ~325K/month pace to a 225K/month pace. Here is something truly amazing, the employment-population ratio for prime age workers is 0.3pp above where it was prior to COVID. This reflects a combination of the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate. We're now well into the era of the mystery of the extra workers. Both payroll & household employment are well above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast, which is especially amazing given that the population is smaller than they expected due to premature deaths and missing immigrants. [This] employment situation not consistent with inflation falling from its 4.5% pace to a <3%. Overall Fed has a bit less reason to worry about rate hikes, I'll bet more coming.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Job growth is slowing from roughly 325K per month to 225K per month, according to Jason Furman's reading of the jobs report.
  2. The prime-age employment-population ratio stands 0.3 percentage points above its pre-COVID level, reflecting both the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate, a period Furman calls the era of "the mystery of the extra workers.".
  3. Both payroll and household employment run well above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast even though the population is smaller than projected due to premature deaths and missing immigrants, Furman notes.

AI Summary. US regional banking stocks rebounded after a week of heavy losses, with PacWest Bancorp gaining as much as 40% and Western Alliance Bancorp rising 30%, amid signals that some of the selling had been overdone. Charles Schwab, whose large banking unit has concerned investors, added 4.7% after reporting outflows slowed for a third month.

Kit Rees and Rick Green Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Regional banks rebounded today after widespread selling over the course of the week. @markets

Was the selloff in regional bank stocks overdone?

Core argument: PacWest Bancorp shares gained as much as 40% and Western Alliance Bancorp rose 30%, leading a rebound in US regional banking stocks after a bruising week of losses.

PacWest Bancorp led a rebound across US regional banking stocks after a bruising week of losses, amid signals that some of the selling has been overdone. PacWest’s shares gained as much as 40% in US trading on Friday, while Western Alliance Bancorp rose 30%. Charles Schwab Corp., whose massive banking unit has been a source of investor concern, added 4.7% after an update showed outflows slowed for a third month.  The pessimism became so indiscriminate that Pacific West Bancorp, a small lender based outside Portland, Oregon, felt impelled to issue a statement to remind everyone that it’s “a separate entity with no affiliation” to the similarly named PacWest.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PacWest Bancorp shares gained as much as 40% and Western Alliance Bancorp rose 30%, leading a rebound in US regional banking stocks after a bruising week of losses.
  2. Charles Schwab Corp., whose banking unit has been a source of investor concern, added 4.7% after an update showed outflows slowed for a third month.
  3. Pessimism became so indiscriminate that Pacific West Bancorp, a small lender based outside Portland, Oregon, issued a statement noting it is "a separate entity with no affiliation" to the similarly named PacWest.

AI Summary. Satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants over Russia's industrial regions show emissions down 6.2% over the past year, exceeding declines seen during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, while Russia's official statistics reported industrial production rising 1.2% year-over-year.

Josh Zumbrun Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Satellite data suggests Russian economic statistics are overstating output, as atmospheric pollutants have declined significantly.

Does satellite pollution data contradict Russia's official industrial production figures?

Core argument: Satellite-detected pollution in Russia's industrial regions fell 6.2% over the past year and 1.2% over the six months ended in April, a larger decline than during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.

Here is a data point that is hard for Russia to fake: pollution emitted by its factories and detectable by satellites in outer space. Rather than showing an economy that suffered an initial shock and has since stabilized, this data reveals an industrial sector that, for the most part, has declined even further as the war has continued. This unusual bird’s-eye view of Russia’s economy comes courtesy of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite, launched in 2017. To monitor the release of pollutants into the atmosphere, the satellite has a cutting-edge Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument, known as Tropomi, which can detect gases such as nitrogen dioxide, ozone, formaldehyde, methane and others. Over the past six months, urban pollution in Moscow and St. Petersburg has begun to increase (partially a reflection of traffic) but pollution in industrial regions has continued to drop, off 1.2% over the six months ended in April and down 6.2% over the past year—more than during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic. By contrast, Russia’s official measure showed industrial production rose 1.2% in March from a year earlier.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Satellite-detected pollution in Russia's industrial regions fell 6.2% over the past year and 1.2% over the six months ended in April, a larger decline than during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.
  2. Russia's official measure showed industrial production rising 1.2% in March from a year earlier, contrasting with satellite pollution data indicating an industrial sector that has declined further as the war has continued.
  3. The European Space Agency's Sentinel-5P satellite, launched in 2017, carries the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument, known as Tropomi, which detects gases including nitrogen dioxide, ozone, formaldehyde and methane, offering a data point that is hard for Russia to fake.

AI Summary. Survey data indicate anti-immigration views across Western countries have declined since their 2016 peak, with the sharpest shifts in the US, Canada and Britain, where the share favoring strict limits or a ban on immigration more than halved from 66% to 31%. Reported discomfort with other races and faiths is also low.

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
Date Posted:

Opposition to mass immigration seemingly peaked in the West in 2016. @jburnmurdoch

Have anti-immigration views declined across Western countries since their peak?

Core argument: The share of Britons saying immigration should be strictly limited or banned outright fell from 66 per cent on the eve of the EU referendum to 31 per cent last year, more than halving.

Remember the rise of the right? First Brexit, then Trump, then a wave of rightwing populism broke over Europe. There were dozens of news articles on the “rising tide of anti-immigrant sentiment.”  Except it turns out that in the west, 2016 was a high water mark for such views. This is true of almost all western countries, but the most dramatic shifts have come in the US, Canada and, in particular, Britain, where the share of people saying there should be strict limits — if not an outright ban — on immigration has more than halved from 66 per cent on the eve of the EU referendum to 31 per cent last year. We see similar shifts in the general public’s attitude towards members of other ethnic groups and faiths. Just 3 per cent of Americans and 2 per cent of Britons say they would not want someone of a different race as a neighbour, with only Sweden scoring lower across the developed world. Discomfort with people from other faiths falls to just 3 and 1 per cent in the US and the UK respectively.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of Britons saying immigration should be strictly limited or banned outright fell from 66 per cent on the eve of the EU referendum to 31 per cent last year, more than halving.
  2. Across almost all western countries, 2016 marked the high water mark for anti-immigration views, with the most dramatic shifts since in the US, Canada and, in particular, Britain.
  3. Just 3 per cent of Americans and 2 per cent of Britons say they would not want a neighbour of a different race, with discomfort about people of other faiths at 3 per cent in the US and 1 per cent in the UK.

AI Summary. Assembly theory, developed by researchers at the University of Glasgow and Arizona State University, argues that complex molecules cannot simply emerge by chance because the number of possible atomic combinations is too vast, so an actual step-by-step pathway must exist for making them. The theory seeks to explain existence through objects' histories rather than timeless physical laws.

Philip Ball Quanta Magazine
Date Posted:

Assembly theory estimates an “Assembly Index” for various substances by measuring the complexity of their molecular structures. Since biological entities tend to have high complexity, this theory offers a possible test for extraterrestrial life.

How do complex molecules come into existence rather than by chance?

Core argument: Lee Cronin of the University of Glasgow developed assembly theory from his intuition that complex molecules cannot simply emerge into existence because the combinatorial space of possible atomic combinations is too vast.

Assembly theory started when Lee Cronin of the University of Glasgow in Scotland asked why, given the astronomical number of ways to combine different atoms, nature makes some molecules and not others. It’s one thing to say that an object is possible according to the laws of physics; it’s another to say there’s an actual pathway for making it from its component parts. “Assembly theory was developed to capture my intuition that complex molecules can’t just emerge into existence because the combinatorial space is too vast,” Cronin said. Sara Walker of Arizona State University, meanwhile, had been wrestling with the question of life’s origin — an issue closely related to making complex molecules, because those in living organisms are far too complex to have been assembled by chance. Something, Walker mused, must have guided that process even before Darwinian selection took over. Called assembly theory, the idea underpinning the pair’s strategy has even grander aims. As laid out in a recent series of publications, it attempts to explain why apparently unlikely things, such as you and me, even exist at all. And it seeks that explanation not, in the usual manner of physics, in timeless physical laws, but in a process that imbues objects with histories and memories of what came before them.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Lee Cronin of the University of Glasgow developed assembly theory from his intuition that complex molecules cannot simply emerge into existence because the combinatorial space of possible atomic combinations is too vast.
  2. Assembly theory distinguishes an object being possible under the laws of physics from there being an actual pathway to make it from its component parts, seeking explanation in processes that give objects histories rather than in timeless physical laws.
  3. Sara Walker of Arizona State University links life's origin to the making of complex molecules, reasoning that those in living organisms are too complex to have been assembled by chance and that something must have guided the process before Darwinian selection took over.