Do states gaining congressional seats have lower taxes and faster growth?
Core argument: The six states gaining congressional seats after the 2020 Census, including Texas and Florida, had an average state tax burden of 7.9% versus 9.5% in the seven states that lost seats, including New York and California.
The 2020 Census revealed that six states, including Texas and Florida, gained congressional seats, while seven states, such as New York and California, lost seats, highlighting a trend of Americans relocating to lower-tax, business-friendly states. The six gaining states exhibited an average state tax burden of 7.9% compared to 9.5% in the losing states. Additionally, the average top individual income tax rate was 4.4% in the gaining states versus 6.5% in the losing states. Economic performance indicators further support this trend: the gaining states had a 2.9% real GDP growth rate in 2019, surpassing the national average of 2.2%, while the losing states lagged at 1.6%. These migration patterns suggest that Americans and businesses are "voting with their feet," moving from economically stagnant, high-tax states to more vibrant, low-tax environments with better job opportunities and fiscal health, as reflected in changes in congressional representation.








Ed Comment:Why do high tax states have substantially lower fiscal stability? Thinking out loud... "Older" states have greater legacy pension liability. But you would think they have offsetting economies of scale and that talented people (i.e., people who pay more taxes than they consume in gov services) were migrating to them. Seems clear that local Dems wrecked them. Rust belt is full of high quality engineers and blue-collar workers, but unions made them to be too highly paid to be competitive, so they are losing jobs because they can't adapt. AC made sunbelt more attractive, but Calif is losing. That seems nuts. Housing costs (land use restrictions) must be a factor. But immigration should drive up housing and growth. If you factor out immigration, migration would be even worse.
Mark Perry on the new Census numbers, "...To answer the questions posed above, there are significant differences between the six states that gained House seats and seven states that lost seats when they are compared on a variety of 11 measures of economic performance, business climate, tax burdens for businesses and individuals, fiscal stability, electricity costs, and labor market dynamism. There is empirical evidence that Americans and businesses “vote with their feet” when they relocate from one state to another, and the evidence suggests that Americans are moving away from economically stagnant, fiscally unhealthy states with higher tax burdens and unfriendly business climates with higher energy costs and fewer economic and job opportunities, to fiscally sound states that are more economically vibrant, dynamic and business-friendly, with lower tax and regulatory burdens, lower energy costs and more economic and job opportunities...."